Another day another solid finish that could have been humongous after a hot hot start, but at least if you went each way you would have found yourself well in front. We look to continue that momentum here with a less than stellar card assembled for a hot day at Randwick. Let’s get straight into it.
Track Report: The track will be just as bone dry as last week with multiple 40 degree days predicted in the lead up to Saturday. Rail goes out 4 metres, which could give leaders a bit of leeway going around that turn.
Race 1 – 1100M James Squire Hcp
We are done with the 2YO features for the year, simply back to the standard handicaps. History says you likely won’t be seeing the Golden Slipper winner here, so it is a lacklustre affair with only 7 runners.
Amazing Eagle is your favourite thanks to his dominant trial in his only public outing to date, absolutely gapping them by 7 and a half lengths. He is the likely winner, who will jump on the bunny and try and run them into the ground, but gee whiz his price is simply unbackable. $1.50, no thank you!
Moonraker presents at the much more enticing figure of $10 and I will gladly take it considering his latest trial saw him finish nicely behind his stablemate Highness, who subsequently won the Wyong Magic Millions Stakes, so it can’t be terrible form. He was bought for a pretty penny and with Magic Millions around the corner, they’ll be wanting to win this to secure his spot.
Anode is another chance that will likely run well considering the ability it has shown at the trials. 2 very dominant lead and win jobs and considering Waterhouse and Bott train the young colt you can bet your house that they will try similar tactics here. Rachel King is flying and should give it every chance.
Skogafoss rounds out selections due to the fact he already has a bit of race fitness and knowledge under his belt, but at the end of the day, this is truly a dartboard type race. If you aren’t going to bet on one race, make it this one.
Selections: 3-1-2-7
Suggested Bet: Moonraker Win
Race 2 – 1600M Midway (Bm72)
Bowery Breeze for me in a wide open Midway contest. Been racing really well this prep without setting the world on fire. Had to drop to a weekday Kensington meet for an easy win last start and now that she has found winning form, she can 100% go on with it. The start before that she finished a narrow 4th in a BM72 contest at Kembla, a race in which has produced 3 subsequent winners since. I think a 4th one is coming here.
Scared to death of Vegas Outlaw. Sara Ryan is legit and she is absolutely smoking hot right now in form training winner after winner in her small stable. This horse is 3 on the trot, looking for a 4th and can definitely find it here. He will stalk the pace and try and run over them late.
Tympanist can almost be impossible to catch at times and trust me, I didn’t catch him when he won last start on the Kenso track that is for sure. Down in distance here, up in grade, up in weight and ready to peak 3rd up, it is a tricky set up, but he should be putting in a solid effort.
Awesome Lad has had far from Awesome form of late. Apart from a very narrow win up in QLD his prep has been very much so-so. However, he comes out of the Four Pillars earlier in the prep (He came last) and that has proven to be strong form subsequently for many other horses.
Selections: 3-2-4-1
Suggested Bet: Bowery Breeze Win
Race 3 – 1400M Kia Ora Prague (Bm78)
Nana’s Wish couldn’t get the job done in her first prep Down Under, but she is older and wiser now and these imports often improve in their 2nd prep as they should have fully acclimatised to the Aussie way of doing things. She has never gone unplaced at this distance and should find a solid run in transit. She usually doesn’t fire first up, which is the only query, however, I think she’ll put her best foot forward here.
Hide Your Heart was a winning machine to start the prep going 3/3. The wheels have fallen off the waggon a touch since then however, once she bumped into Lekvarte. She isn’t here however, which puts her in good stead and finds her pet conditions in the form of a bone dry deck.
Rocketeer Girl is the big danger in this one considering the potential leaders bias. You can say the same thing for stablemate Zouphoria. They will both press right to the front and be the horses that they will need to run down and it wouldn’t be shocking if they ran the quinella.
Selections: 9-5-4-10
Suggested Bet: Nana’s Wish Each Way
Race 4 – 2000M Toyota Forklifts (Bm78)
Toesonthenose has been quite kind to us this prep. He is absolutely flying and we need to continue to back him until he fails. Finds his pet conditions, however, the only query is the distance, as last time he stretched out, he didn’t quite stay. But he is in much stronger form here and he is much fitter. If he gets the distance, he will be in the finish.
Rogue Bear should get a cushy run in transit and considering both Dylan Gibbons and Kris Lees are flying right now you would have to think this horse will be fit and firing and get every chance. Hasn’t had a win in the city for a while, but has constantly found himself in harder fields than this.
Phillipsburg and Lyrical Gangster are the low weight X-Factors here in comparison to the top 2 selections and that could be the deciding factor come the finish. Considering they are in strong form and carrying 8 less kilos than the favourite, they should be super strong late as the leaders may start to labour.
Selections: 2-4-9-11
Suggested Bet: Toesonthenose Win
Race 5 – 1500M Tab Highway Plate (C3)
Throwing a ball a the stumps and hoping it hits with Custo. He has been in my blackbook for a long time as he constantly runs really well in the country but faces some very tough luck in the city. He gets barrier 15 here, which is another hard luck story in itself. Runs best when he gets to the front, so if Tyler Schiller can put him there without burning him early, I think he is a great chance to get up at big odds.
Acapella Sun won last time she was at this grade and since then has run respectably in higher grades, just not well enough to sustain her rating. Drops back down here and finds a decent draw for her style of racing and is ready to peak in fitness.
Unravel is 2/2 first up and 1/1 at the distance, indicating he should be cherry ripe to win this one here. However, he is coming off a run that halted his prep dead in its tracks last time out where he picked up a couple of nasty injuries. If he is the same horse as before the injuries, his best can certainly win this.
Could talk your ear off all day why Emperor is the best chance in the race, just look at his form, but I certainly can’t be taking $1.80 odds in a Highway.
Selections: 3-13-5-1
Suggested Bet: Custo Each Way
Race 6 – 1100M Tab (Bm72)
Accredited has a less than stellar barrier, but luckily for him, he should get dragged across with the leaders, as they have also drawn quite wide, so he should finds himself parked right behind them, exactly where he likes to be. Lightly raced, full of upside and has the Joe Pride polish, can’t see this horse being too far from the finish.
Boston Rocks is the short favourite here and it is easy to see why. He is also lightly raced and full of potential upside with 2 strong wins from 4 runs and a solid 2nd placing to boot, which happens to be behind our very own Cheerful Legend. Should get the lead from the soft draw and prove hard to run down.
Fine Vintage is on one heck of a hot streak. 4 straight victories, undefeated so far this prep, albeit those runs came in much lower grades in the Country and Provincial scenes, but hey were wins nonetheless and sometimes all you need is a horse that knows where the line is. Gets his pet set up here and a win at huge odds wouldn’t shock.
Infatuation resumes here and her form has been lets just say less than impressive on paper. However, she drops to what is most definitely her easiest field to date. If she isn’t running well here, she probably never will.
Selections: 7-10-3-9
Suggested Bet: Accredited Each Way
Race 7 – 1600M Cactus Imaging Hcp
Lekvarte on a silver platter for me at that price considering the form she is in. Yes, obviously this is a much harder race, but she is flying and she drops a whopping 10 kilos. 10 kilos! Loves the track, loves the distance, loves dry ground, all signs pointing to a strong run and I am surprised she isn’t closer to being the favourite.
Kirwan’s Lane is the favourite for this contest after a very respectable 4th in The Ingham a few weeks back. Perfectly timed run, chased hard and only finished a length and a bit off the winner, he just didn’t have as much fitness as others, as he was 7 weeks between runs. He’ll be sharper here and with Nash on board, he is bound to be dangerous.
King Of The Castle is flying at the moment and is to be respected in this sort of company as I believe he has earned that respect by now. He should get on the back of one of the leaders and get carted into the race and be one of the strongest late. His best work comes at the 1600m mark, watch out!
Grebeni well placed and well weighted here to bounce back off of a fair run last time out at Rosehill. Has run well at this distance before and McEvoy has had a lot of success aboard.
Selections: 13-2-6-11
Suggested Bet: Lekvarte Each Way (BEST BET)
Race 8 – 1400M Precise Air (Bm78)
Cheerful Legend on top here and it is an easy pick to make considering we own it. Expect him to settle towards the tail and launch late, very capable of making his way into the money, if not winning at big odds.
Plundering is a horse I have a lot of time for. has been running really well without winning for a while now, as he just keeps running into one better. Finds a very winnable race here and can park himself right on the tail of the speed and be one of the strongest late.
Louisville forever the bridesmaid, never the bride. Very capable of winning if he brings his best efforts, but I have a suspicion this is short of his best distance, despite never missing a placing, but he just has a habit of peaking too early and falling short. Will have few excuses if this happens again.
Miracle Spin gets better the further he goes out, but he has won at the distance before and often runs very well fresh. One of those horses that wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of money came for it late, watch the market like a hawk, that will tell you if he is up to the task here.
Selections: 5-8-11-7
Suggested Bet: Cheerful Legend Each Way
race 9 – 1000M Chandon (Bm78)
Dollar Magic has been knocking on the door of a win all prep, with he run of 2nd placings now hitting 4 in a row. She just keeps getting run down in the final stages and being beaten by a lip. Love the initiative to drop her back down in distance again to try and avoid this. She’ll push right to the front and be very hard to run down this time in.
Time To Boogie is your favourite and on paper you can see why. He has never missed the quinella first up, he has never missed the quinella at the distance and he has only missed the quinella once from 7 tries. Throw in the fact that Bjorn Baker and Rachel King are both in red hot form and this horse should have all the chance in the world to win and win well.
Tristate has to lump a bit of weight due to the drop in grade and his best work comes over longer distances than this. But sometime all you need is class to get you home and this could prove the deciding factor come the finish if he gets the right run in transit.
Squad is well placed here and his trials and jump out work has all been spot on to suggest he will fire fresh as is the norm for him. Also won 3 times from 4 goes at this distance.
Selections: 5-3-1-4
Suggested Bet: Dollar Magic Win
Race 10 – 1200M Petaluma (Bm78)
Do I dive into Smashing Eagle again? I have to don’t I, I would kick myself if it won without me. He has been up forever and is probably looking for the barn and paddock, but he could snag that elusive win here if he doesn’t find himself too far back. His turn of foot should find him somewhere in the finish.
Contemporary is a horse I have backed plenty of times in my short punting career and he has done little wrong for me. If he is not winning, he is placing and I expect a similar effort out of him today. He’ll probably sit at the top of the chasing pack and be one of the strongest late.
Shohei could steal this one with pure pace. The only horse of the race that is likely to push right to the front and try and kick away from them. With that in mind, as well as a rock hard deck with a rail out 4 metres, if he gets a quick sectional off without being challenged, he could potentially gap them.
Gracilistyla is a must for all exotics, because if his track record says anything, he will be finishing 2nd. Form behind Unspoken and Marquess reads really well on paper, but those were all at a much longer distance and he could find this distance a touch sharp.
Selections: 9-10-11-5
Suggested Bet: Smashing Eagle Each Way
Top Selections For the Card
Race 1: Moonraker
Race 2: Bowery Breeze
Race 3: Nana’s Wish
Race 4: Toesonthenose
Race 5: Custo
Race 6: Accredited
Race 7: Lekvarte (BEST BET)
Race 8: Cheerful Legend
Race 9: Dollar Magic
Race 10: Smashing Eagle
Quaddie
Race 7: 2,6,9,11,13
Race 8: 5,6,7,8,11
Race 9: 1,3,4,5
Race 10: 2,5,9,10,11
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