Well last week was just absolutely pulverised by scratchings from the heat. Don’t think I had a winner, but also half my tips didn’t run, so it was a bit of a write off of a week. Hopefully, with the rain about this time, more runners start and they win!
Track Report: Track rated Good 4 on Thursday, but with the torrential downpour that the track received, plus more rain expected in the lead up, we should at least start on a Soft track. Rail goes out 8 metres, so the leaders will have a touch stronger of a chance than those who prefer to be at the tail, especially if they can just grab the fence and go go go.
Race 1 – 1100M Drinkwise Plate
Straight Charge is obviously the main chance and all things considered should be winning with plenty left in the tank. He is after all the Breeders Plate runner up, trained by the 2YO experts and should lead on a 8m rail track, all of which will put him in great stead to win. But $1.50 in a 2YO race is not one I can have.
Erno’s Cube instead for me. Comes out of the Gimcrack Stakes where she used that form to subsequently win the Max Lees Classic at Newcastle. That race produced some solid runs in the Inglis Nursery not too long ago, so I don’t mind the form. Should be one of the strongest late and is at a better price so I’ll take her.
Climate Change is a very interesting Vic raider here. Got to the front and kicked all the way in its debut at Geelong. Drawn next to the favourite and should get dragged over to the front with him and put a little pressure on him. Gibbons will give him every chance on board and the fact that this trainer rarely sends horses up here indicates a lot of confidence. Big market watch.
Tarpaulin rounds out selections. Nice pedigree, half sibling to Aft Cabin who was quite the impressive 2YO in his day. Should be really strong late and potentially find his way into the money.
Selections: 7-3-6-4
Suggested Bet: Erno’s Cube Win
Race 2 – 2400M Kia Ora Prague (Bm78)
Father’s Day in this one for me. Has been running at the 2400 quite frequently lately and in his last 3 starts he has managed 2 wins and A very narrow 2nd placing. Clearly he has an affection for the distance and he can certainly make it 3 out of 4 wins from his last 4 starts here.
First Light is a danger here. Found winning form last start at this distance and can go on with it here. Last time he met Father’s Day he was comfortably beaten, so he will have to turn the tables here, however, he is now fitter and stronger and can get closer this time around.
I’m A Dirty Rascal is the favourite here and will have to carry a large amount of weight to offset the class difference. Last start he was seen charging home and finishing not too far off Stockman at Rosehill which is great form to go off. Only career win comes in the wet so the soggy ground should help.
I Am The Empire rounds out selections here. Both times at 2400 he has been safely beaten, but he swims, so getting his toe in the ground could bring a bit more out in him.
Selections: 2-4-1-7
Suggested Bet: Father’s Day Win
Race 3 – 1600M Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
Mazita is in strong form currently with 2 wins from his last 2 starts. One came at the 1450 mark before rising to 1600 and winning just as well. He is almost untried on wet tracks which is the concern, however, if he handles it, I can’t see him finishing too far away from the finish.
Sharp Shock is the favourite here after some solid form behind Mosgold, who won for us a couple of weeks ago. This was the horse that flashed late to grab second. That was at 1400, now up to 1600 you’d have to think his turn of foot could get him over the line when it counts.
Final Comment seems a great each way chance on paper. Sure he has never had a city start but the fact that he has never missed a placing at the distance helps. Throw in the fact that most of his success comes in the wet and he figures as one of the main knockout chances.
Denarau could be a copy and paste of what I just said for Final Comment. If the track remains wet, she is a super chance.
Selections: 5-4-6-9
Suggested Bet: Mazita Win
Race 4 – 1200M Midway (Bm72)
Romeo’s Choice for me. Heard some strong stable mail around this boys so I’ll bite and hopefully it pays off. Not the best barrier, but super consistent at both the distance and in the wet, Tommy Berry will give him every chance. Happy to take him each way.
Ningaloo Star is having one of those always the bridesmaid, never the bride type of preps. Flying without winning too many races as she just keeps running into one better. Last start she was defeated by Terra Mater who seems a very talented type so that form should take her a long way. 4/5 career wins have been in the wet as well.
Mr Rock It is a horse I have a lot of time for at this grade. Last start he was able to win nicely over this distance at Kembla Grange in a lesser class, but it was a smart win nonetheless. The fact he usually needs a couple of runs to really get into his best work and he managed to win first up indicates to me he is in for a strong prep.
Conrad rounds out selections due to his drop in grade and liking for the distance should put him in good stead to come out on top.
Selections: 13-7-12-1
Suggested Bet: Romeo’s Choice Each Way
Race 5 – 1600M Doyle’s Breeding And Racing (Bm74)
Clear Choice just happens to be the clear choice for me here, pun fully intended. Flying this prep and arguably should have had more wins than just the 1. Ran super in the Nowra Cup to be in the finish over 1600m when sitting 3 wide without cover the entire trip behind 2 very smart types in Peace Officer and winner Floating. Should jump from the inside gate, go right to the front and prove very hard to run down.
Eau De Vie should be right behind the favourite or even sit just outside of him to put some pressure on. Doesn’t want it in the heavy range, but if we stay in the soft this Freedman mare has all the chance in the world of winning this one. Craig Williams jumps aboard, so you know she will get every chance.
Mistress is another one who will thrive in the soft, but perhaps come unstuck if the track leans into the heavy region. Carries a bit less weight than her main rivals and has an affection for the mile, certainly a big danger.
Bullit managed to beat Clear Choice so you have to respect him and he is a must for exotics.
Selections: 2-3-9-4
Suggested Bet: Clear Choice Win
Race 6 – 1200M The Agency Real Estate (Bm78)
Valiancy sets up perfectly here for the Maher and Eustace camp. Was plain first up but then bounced back in super fashion, managing to get close to Legio Ten, who would win easily here in my opinion. She is also an out and out swimmer, so with the wet track expected, she should thrive.
Tsarina Sophia is a horse I respect quite highly. Backed her many times for success and if she wins here I’ll be annoyed I didn’t make her my top pick. She has had 2 very strong runs so far this prep, just being beaten narrowly twice by some talented horses in Terra Mater and Afterlight, who also lines up here. Should sit somewhere in the chasing pack and be strong late.
I will throw Amnesty and Principessa into the selections to inject a bit of value into the exotics. They are both quite consistent and come here first up off of some solid trials. I struggle to see why they are both at such large quotes.
Selections: 8-10-3-2
Suggested Bet: Valiancy Win
Race 7 – 1100M Precise Air (Bm88)
With Your Blessing might be one of the better placed horses all day. Back in class, but doesn’t get slapped with a huge weight penalty, loves the wet, loves the track and has proven to be strong at the distance. Finished a length off of some very good horses last start in Open class which should put him in good stead here. Maps perfectly and swims, I only see him running well.
Waverider Buoy will probably flash late into the placings and lose by a nose if her track record is anything to go off. But she barely misses the trifecta at this distance, same goes for when she is running fresh. She is down in the weights and has conditions to suit, definitely a key chance.
Sneaky Paige is an interesting horse, she is inconsistent as anything but you always need to give her a touch of respect, because she ahs the ability to pop up out of nowhere. I have a sneaky feeling that today could be one of those days. Loves the distance, loves the wet, in form jockey on board, has the ability to find herself finishing top 3.
Va Via usually needs a run or 2 to settle into the prep and has yet to win at this distance from 6 starts, but Craig Williams is on board and the horse has run well in wet conditions before so write her off at your own peril.
Selections: 5-10-7-8
Suggested Bet: With Your Blessing Each Way
Race 8 – 1400M Schweppes (Bm100)
I quite like the chances of Conscript at the huge price of $18 currently. Maps to be right on the pace, if not at the very front, has a liking for wet tracks and does his best work when 2nd up. Failed to fire a shot first up, but has since had a nice tick over trial that has me thinking he is way over the odds/
Chrysaor won the Group 2 Callander-Presnell in the Spring and now finds himself at $7 in a Summer BM100. The market is very strange sometimes. Sure you can make the case that he won’t measure up to the older horses now, but I think plenty of respect needs to be thrown his way. He is a narrow second selection and I am quite surprised he isn’t the favourite.
Waihaha Falls is just not the horse he once promised to be. He continues to bounce around the grades trying to find his level and perhaps he has finally found it. Couldn’t win in open class last time out but was very close to the finish nonetheless. Has performed well at this distance before, should have few excuses come the finish.
Art Cadeau rounds out selections from a pure loyalty perspective. He is probably looking for the retirement paddock at this point, but his best can find himself in the finish for sure.
Selections: 6-11-4-5
Suggested Bet: Conscript Each Way
Race 9 – 1800M Vale Mr Alan ‘Jock’ Gollogly (Bm78)
I think Aristonous might be the good thing of the day. Super first prep down under, followed by a very narrow 2nd placing when first up in his 2nd prep a few weeks back. Steps up in distance a couple hundred metres now which should give him plenty of time to get his motor firing. Should settle towards the field and if the track is allowing horses to make ground she should fly past them in the straight.
Bowery Breeze finds her ideal conditions for the first time in a while when racing in this sort of grade. She has been crying out for a wet track on a weekend and she finally gets it here after many a time of finding rock hard decks and having to rely on midweek meetings to find the wet and bring her best ability out of her. She should be one of the strongest late and threatens as a key value danger to the favourite.
The stable and syndicate mates in So United and Too Much Caviar round out selections thanks to their consistency in this sort of grade. They will be the pair the field has to run down.
Selections: 4-11-5-6
Suggested Bet: Aristonous Win (BEST BET)
Race 10 – 1300M Tab (Bm78)
Cheerful Legend for me, because Nick owns it and he rarely runs a bad race this horse, especially since Nick’s syndicate took over the ownership. He claims it was all his doing, that aside, he really has improved in the last 12 months. Was ridden forward last start at Canterbury and only just got gunned down late, which could be a positive sign if they try these tactics again here.
Robusto is running well without winning this prep, constantly running into a few better, but he finds his easiest field to date in my opinion. Best work comes in the dry, but usually runs well enough in the wet to warrant respect here and is 2/3 at the distance.
Danaustar is the one they will all be chasing and despite the large weight he could potentially break their hearts here and lead all the way. He comes off 2 very easy wins in the country and provincial circuit and reads as a solid chance here.
Ceolwulf is the favourite here and it isn’t hard to see why. Lightly raced, full of promise, has spent his short career in much harder races than this, certainly wouldn’t knock you for having a play on him.
Selections: 5-3-2-10
Suggested Bet: Cheerful Legend Each Way
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Erno’s Cube
Race 2: Father’s Day
Race 3: Mazita
Race 4: Romeo’s Choice
Race 5: Clear Choice
Race 6: Valiancy
Race 7: With Your Blessing
Race 8: Conscript
Race 9: Aristonous (BEST BET)
Race 10: Cheerful Legend
Quaddie
Race 7: 2,5,7,8,10
Race 8: 4,5,6,11
Race 9: 4,11
Race 10: 2,3,5,10
$50 gets you 31.25%
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.
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