Well that was a crash back down to earth. Could only manage 2nd placings all day in what was the first nudie run of the year, hopefully, we got it out of the way early and don’t have to see another for a very long time. Keen to crack into this week’s Saturday Racing card.
Track Report: The track should be bone dry thanks to some scorching hot weather and the rail is out nine metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; Out six metres for the remainder. So, I would think that leaders will have a massive advantage on the day, especially those who draw inside.
Race 1 – 1000M Join Atc Membership Hcp
I am most interested in Deputize and Russian Roulette as they both look like horses which will go to the front and try and set a pace, which with the potential leader’s bias will be the perfect place for them. I will lean the way of Russian Roulette…just. This could just end up being the typical Gai Waterhouse jump, kick, lead, win type of job, however Deputize will make him work for it and these two running the quinella wouldn’t shock me.
Switzerland is a 1.5 million dollar colt and an $18 chance in the slipper. But just because his pedigree suggests so, doesn’t make him a world beater. His trials have been good enough to suggest some ability, but with these expensive colts I tend to let them go around without me first time up to see if they’re actually any good first. Because, they are almost always unders in the market because of their pedigree pricetag. Could come out and gap them and I will be happy to let it do so without my money.
Scampi is nearing D-Day as a Slipper prospect. He has so far been a trial like Tarzan run like Jane type of horse that you see just about every year with the 2YO’s. He needs to show something here, otherwise he can give up on competing with the top chances in this year’s crop.
Selections: 5-2-6-1
Suggested Bet: Russian Roulette Win
Race 2 – 1600M Midway (Bm72)
Satness is a tried and true Midway horse. I have backed him plenty of times and today will be no different. Only alright when first up, but it was at a distance short of his best and in tricky conditions. Gets out to his pet distance of 1600m in which he has had all 4 career wins at and gets back to the dry. He should only run well here.
Patrika Mist is a deserved favourite given the record she has been building of late. Comes into this one off the back of an easy Midway win last start at 1500m and was strong through the line in doing so. 1600m is no issue, as she has 3 wins at the distance, including 2 starts back, meaning she is looking for 3 on the bounce here.
Jumeirah Beach comes out of the same race as Patrika Mist when he we was just outrun by her on the day. However, here, gets a track and barrier set up which can have him right at the front and able to skip away with it, without letting the favourite run him down this time. Throw in the 2kg weight swing and he is cherry ripe to turn the tables.
Tympanist is a maiden from 8 goes at the distance and 8 goes at the track, but he is currently running well enough to warrant a spot in the minor selections for a placing.
Selections: 8-1-2-3
Suggested Bet: Satness Each Way
Race 3 – 1200M Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
Blow Dart may look like a shocking prospect on paper, considering no wins at the distance from 7 goes, but he hasn’t been very far away at all in similar races to this in the prep so far and has yet to miss the first 4 in 3 starts. So, I think at his price, he at least warrants an each way play, considering he should jump and cross them, grab the fence and go go go. Today could just be the day where he doesn’t get gunned down late and he leads them all the way.
Acapella Sun is a worthy favourite considering she is dropping in class quite a bit to come back to the Highway level, hence the large weight she has to lug. However, McLucas’ weight claim will help with that issue and she often does find herself in the finish in these types of races. Expect her to burst clear late if she doesn’t get stuck in traffic.
Barradas was around the mark without winning all throughout last prep, but put in plenty of respectable runs to be considered a chance here. Nash Rawiller being booked shows confidence and we know he will get the most out of the horse, so he figures here as a certain danger.
Rouge Lune makes a city debut here, but has been building quite a solid record for itself in the country. 3/6 wins at this distance suggests he will at least be a little competitive.
Selections: 4-2-3-6
Suggested Bet: Blow Dart Each Way
Race 4 – 1600m Race A Kia Ora Bred Graduate (Bm88)
Glory Daze is a horse that I have a lot of time for and I wouldn’t be surprised if he came out and gapped them, but boy there is something about Hellsing that has me leaning his way. Was only just okay when first up for the Neasham camp, but perhaps that was first race down under jitters? Let’s hope so. He did find the line nicely enough to convince me that I would be backing him one more time if he rose in distance and here he is. If he shows me nothing again, I will be jumping off.
Battleton tends to get too far back to figure into races he really should be threatening in. With a small field this time around he especially can’t find his way to the back and lose connection to the chasing pack. If he is within striking distance around the turn, however, he will be dangerous late.
Stonecoat‘s only hope to win is to steal it with pure pace and we could certainly see this happen. Think Pride Of Jenni in the Spring, take advantage of being the only leader in the race, run them into the ground and give them no chance of getting slingshot past you and hope you have enough gas in the tank to get you to the line. With the rail out so wide, this is as strong a chance of happening as ever.
Selections: 3-1-2-5
Suggested Bet: Hellsing Win
Race 5 – 1600M Petaluma (Bm72)
Malabar usually prefers there to be juice in the track, but he has only missed the trifecta once at this distance and his first up run looked like he was in for a big prep. Closed off well despite being crowded and bumped a little and only just came up short to Hellfire Express. His trials before that came behind Tamerlane, who is a horse I am very bullish on later in the day, so I am happy to have a stab at him here each way.
Don Pedro should be the leader of this one if he gets his way. Was a very average horse throughout his career until Bjorn seems to have turned him around this prep with 2 very strong runs without winning. He should be ready to peak 3rd up at the mile.
Is Castillian a chance? Yes. Should he be favourite? I am not so sure. His form has been quite plain this prep and its not like the races he has been in have produced many subsequent winners which doesn’t fill me with confidence.
Dazzle Legend rounds out selections. Forgive his last start, as he bungled the jump and got way too far back to figure. A cleaner jump and he can be right in the finish.
Selections: 2-6-5-10
Suggested Bet: Malabar Each Way
Race 6 – 2000M The Agency Real Estate (Bm88)
Aristonous for me and it is D-Day. He was phenomenal in his first Australian prep, but has failed to fire a shot since. If he doesn’t get sucked all the way to the back from the 2nd barrier, he is a strong chance to park on someone’s back, get a cart around the corner and prove very strong late.
Louisville has been a real money muncher this prep thanks to his string of narrow losses despite being short in the market. However, so far, his prep has been bookended by a pair of wins. His last of which, was really strong over 1800 and every sign pointed to him being able to run a strong 2000m.
Manbehindthemoney has been plain so far this prep, but has always needed a couple of runs before he really gets going. Comes here with a step up in distance and a drop in weight and a 2/2 when 3rd up record. All signs point to a strong run.
Monfelicity rounds out selections as an exotic filler, as she often finds herself in the money without threatening for the win. This is a stronger grade than she is used to, but with the bottom weight and a favourable draw, she can prove dangerous.
Selections: 9-6-3-12
Suggested Bet: Aristonous Each Way
Race 7 – 1400M Tab Carrington Stakes
Tamerlane draws wide here, but I am still quite confident he can get the job done. He has the speed to overcome said draw and he has a great affection for both this distance and Randwick. He has been very competitive in better races than this and he is flying. I think he is definitely one of my most confident plays of the day.
Zou Tiger should find himself up on the speed and figures as the man danger to Tamerlane in my mind. Was once a horse considered much stronger than this sort of class and displayed elements of that talent last start when he only lost by the barest of margins in a photo finish. Well weighted here as well.
Waihaha Falls was once touted as the next big thing, however, he never quite lived up to that hype. He seems to have found his level in these high benchmark and listed grade races. Has found some nice form, building throughout the prep and finally getting a long awaited win last start. Likely to give them a head start, but if they go too quick up front, he will be the strongest swooper.
Felix Majestic has been in career best form and has a chance to finally prove he can hang at this class, however 3:0-0-0 doesn’t read terribly well for his attempts at Listed Grade.
Selections: 1-8-6-12
Suggested Bet: Tamerlane Each Way (BEST BET)
Race 8 – 1200M Precise Air (Bm78)
Boston Rocks wasn’t he a disaster last start! We’d been told he just wasn’t losing by the syndicators and we backed him very heavily and he went no good at all. But, he’ll be fitter for it, draws the rails, gets a weight swing on the favourite and conditions to suit. He can bounce back here.
So Good So Cool is an interesting runner here. He is in career best form under the training of Sara Ryan who is flying right now, so all of her runners are to be respected. Dylan Gibbons booked, so he will get every chance here. His only negative is he is a get back type in a race that has a lot of speed, so he will need to make sure he stays within striking distance, because if he gets detached, it is game over.
Union Army is very similar in that vein in that he is also expected to get back, but he was able to get the job done last start and can potentially go on with the job here. However, has yet to win at this track in 4 starts and has a tougher field than last time, so I think he could potentially be a vulnerable favourite.
Legio Ten failed to fire a shot when 2nd up, however, his 1st up run was super, which has me thinking he will bounce back here. Definitely has to be included in the exotics.
Selections: 11-7-10-3
Suggested Bet: Boston Rocks Win
Race 9 – 1400M Toyota Forklifts (Bm78)
Infatuation is a horse that I have been on many times and he has done me both well and terribly in the past if I am being honest. However, to her credit, she has often found herself outclassed in tough fields. She managed to finish just a length off the winner in the recent Magic Millions 3YO Guineas, which tells me she has more ability in her then she lets on. Fingers crossed she can put in her best effort here and get over the top.
High Blue Sea is lightly raced and full of potential as a horse who has only had 5 starts and has so far managed to finish no further back than 4th and that was to a horse by the name of Osipenko, ever heard of it? Looking for 4 straight here and is very dangerous.
Crafty Eagle was ridden upside down last start quite frankly. Usually likes to shuffle back in the pack, find a tail to chase and get going in the straight, but last start they tried to run him up on the pace and it had terrible results. With a better ride here he can easily find himself in the finish.
Gracilistyla rounds out selections because you just know she’ll end up running a strong 2nd without ever threatening to win.
Selections: 13-2-3-4
Suggested Bet: Infatuation Each Way
Race 10 – 1200M Expect It All This Autumn At Atc (Bm78)
Junqueira in the last for me. I know favourite in the get out stakes is the boring option, but the form reads super. Smashed it in 2 starts back on the Gold Coast before running really well to get to a 4th position finish behind Lady Laguna at the Magic Millions meeting after tripping out of the barrier. With a clean jump and a good run in transit, she can definitely run over the top of them here.
Either Oar has started her prep really well with a win over Dollar Magic and a narrow placing behind Diamond Dealer, both of which are strong Benchmark horses that would likely be getting the job done here if they were in the field. Will likely push forward and be the horse they have to run down.
Rupertaar has been good without winning this prep and needs to be respected here despite the massive price. Shocking barrier, but expect her to jump, shuffle her way over into the pack and try and burst clear late.
Tashi does her best work when fresh and her recent trial win suggests she will be full of running here. So far in her 10 start career she has only missed the trifecta twice and has only missed it once at this distance. Expect a strong showing.
Selections: 1-3-5-7
Suggested Bet: Junqueira Win
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Russian Roulette
Race 2: Satness
Race 3: Blow Dart
Race 4: Hellsing
Race 5: Malabar
Race 6: Aristonous
Race 7: Tamerlane (BEST BET)
Race 8: Boston Rocks
Race 9: Infatuation
Race 10: Junqueira
Quaddie
Race 7: 1,6,8,12
Race 8: 3,7,10,11
Race 9: 2,3,4,13
Race 10: 1,3,5,7
$50 gets you 19%
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