Last week, I was living it up in the Gold Coast and managed to hit 4 winners for the Podcast, so couple that with the couple of wins we racked up to start the year we have managed a solid 6/20 start to the year, hopefully, add 4 wins this week and we’ll be in that sweat 30%+ strike rate that you aim for as a form analyst.
Track Report: The track is currently saturated thanks to a whole tonne of rain falling this week. With some hot days predicted in the lead up the track should dry out to the Soft Range, potentially even the Good range, but I predict we’ll be starting in the soft. The rail goes out 3 metres for the entire circuit, which is right on the fringe at Rosehill where the leaders bias kicks in.
Race 1 – 1100M Ned Australian Whisky Hcp
King Of Roseau for me. The time I spent in the Gold Coast I managed to meet the boys who syndicated this horse and they’re convinced he would have been a red hot shot in the 2YO Classic. His Canberra debut was fantastic, a classic lead and win job. He will try the same here.
Customized is a narrow 2nd selection due to his form behind Storm Boy. Obviously, he was no match for that horse when they met, Storm Boy is a machine of an animal, but still that form could take him a long way here.
Switzerland is here as the favourite based on promise alone and the fact he was a $1,500,000 purchase. However, I think he might be a vulnerable favourite here, as he is drawn wide and the trials were only fair in my opinion. Watch the market late to see if he holds, drifts or firms, that will tell you if he is up to the task.
Fully Lit is the token Gai Waterhouse horse here which will try and lead, kick and win. That tactic has historically worked very well for her, so you always must respect these horses.
Selections: 2-1-16-7
Suggested Bet: King Of Roseau Each Way
Race 2 – 1400M Highway (C3)
Elson Boy is the horse I want to have a whack at the stumps with each way. It is a highway after all, so why not take on the $30 shot. He is coming off 2 straight wins, which have been up on the pace jobs, really showing some straight line speed in the final stages. He should stalk the leaders here and prove to be strong late.
Lensman is paying around the same price and is also coming off a win in the country. He is apparently being spruiked as a Country Championships horse, so he would need to be winning or at least putting in a strong effort here if he is ever a chance of getting there. He will get right back and have to launch late.
Associate is the favourite and I can certainly see why, but he won’t have my money. He has a winning combination with Seib (Who wins a Highway every few cracks) and Tommy Berry who has been flying since his return late last year. Expect him to try and run over the top of them late.
Musical Affair is always there/thereabouts in these sorts of races, needs to be respected as such.
Selections: 7-8-6-9
Suggested Bet: Elson Boy Each Way
Race 3 – 1200M Midway (Bm72)
Lancaster Bomber is the ultimate journeyman. 8 years old, over 60 starts and he is still running well enough to grab wins. His win last start at Canterbury was really good and showed he still has juice in the tank. He will sit off the pace and look to launch late.
Xpresso goes in as the 2nd selection here. He should find himself right on the pace and setting the tempo. He was excellent 2nd up at solid odds when losing narrowly to Delexo, who would be quite competitive in a race like this. Certainly the main danger.
Gently Rolled is the favourite here and I suspect he could be a bit vulnerable here. He is first up off of 2 very plain trials, so he could find himself a bit undercooked here. JMac is booked, which shows plenty of confidence however.
Field Wiri probably the best rough chance. Should improve second up and up in distance.
Selections: 6-3-8-13
Suggested Bet: Lancaster Bomber Each Way
Race 4 – 1200M Rosehill Bowling Club (Bm88)
It isn’t often I do this, would probably be able to count on 1 hand how many times I have said this in the last year but this is a genuine no bet race. I see absolutely zero promise for anything to bet into. A $1.40 favourite in a 6 horse field? Yuck, just yuck. Stay away from this one punters.
Race 5 – 1100M Toyota Forklifts (Bm72)
I am a big Satin And Silk guy. She is a quick filly who was once a Gimcrack Stakes horse. She has since run through the provincial grades and earned her return to city grade. She will jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down if she gets out to a lead strong enough to skip away down the straight. Can’t see why she is so wide in the market. Happy to take her on and hope for a strong effort.
Caballus was plain last prep, but his trials leading into this start have been really slick and I genuinely can entertain him as a strong chance. Clearly the market think he is in for a good run, considering his price.
Epic Proportions returns to Sydney racing after an extended stint down in Melbourne, which saw him put some solid runs in, he best of which was his first up effort at Moonee Valley. Was gunned down late by a fitter horse but I liked the way he closed off. Can certainly stalk the leaders here and run past them late.
Soldier Of Rome is the token Waterhouse horse. Lightly raced, only 1 start to date to be exact, which was a win mind you. He seems to be full of promise, should jump clean and head straight to the front and prove to be really strong late, as he appears to have a great ability to sustain a strong pace.
Selections: 4-1-2-5
Suggested Bet: Satin And Silk Each Way
Race 6 – 2400M Petaluma (Bm78)
Lyrical Gangster for me in this one. Was impressed by his win last start, where he knuckled down after some contact and got the job done. Out to 2400m for the first time, but will appreciate the soggy deck. Crucial that he doesn’t give away a huge start, as was his bad habit before he kicked it last start.
First Light has found winning form and can 100% continue on with it now as many Waller horses do once they find momentum. Strong win before the new year 3 weeks back to prevail over some solid company. Stays at the distance, but jumps 3kg for his troubles. His previous efforts suggest he will be somewhere around the finish.
Yarrawonga was backed as if he was unbeatable last start at Kembla and it proved to be true with a lead all the way win. Back to city grade now and you can expect the same tactics jumping from the inside gate.
Supertrail could find himself outclassed here but he has the running pattern to be in the finish and is carrying the bottom weight, so don’t rule him out.
Selections: 5-2-8-10
Suggested Bet: Lyrical Gangster Win
Race 7 – 1400M Chandon (Bm88)
Danaustar has to turn the tables on Robusto but I think he can do it. Last time out he was only gunned down late and he was giving Robusto an extra kilo. Now he gets the weight swing and a potential leaders bias that could put him in great stead to be winning here. Confident that these two will be the quinella, but reversed of the last time they met.
Powerful Peg has a stack of ticks next to its name here. Track? Yes. Distance? Yes. Wet track? Definitely. Dylan Gibbons is flying, as is Kris Lees, so expect this horse to be right in the thick of things. Throw in the Contemporary form and he looks to be the main danger by far.
Mission Phoenix goes in as a simple exotics filler. Would be surprised if something out of the top 3 won.
Selections: 5-4-7-1
Suggested Bet: Danaustar Win
Race 8 – 1500M Bisley Workwear (Bm78)
Step Aside was genuinely robbed last start. Granted Zac Lloyd’s amazing ride on Luvoir was genius, but the massive lead allowed none of the chasers to get into the race and for Step Aside to still manage to finish not that far off is a credit to his ability. He should jump on the bunny from the inside barrier, park right up on speed and prove very hard to beat. The form has since been franked from that last start, he jumps in distance and is ready to peak. He just wins in my opinion.
Buillt just keeps on kicking doesn’t he? He has been up for about 4 months now, yet he just keeps running so well he demands to go around again, as does happen often with these benchmark Waller geldings. JMac gave him a peach last start and can definitely do it again. Figures as the only strong ganger to the favourite.
Crafty Eagle and Special Envoy round out selections, but I am confident the favourite gets the job done, if not the 2nd favourite.
Selections: 4-7-6-1
Suggested Bet: Step Aside Win (BEST BET)
Race 9 – 1100M Tab (Bm78)
Tintookie made me look really really silly last start when I jumped off her and she got the job done. She rarely runs a bad race, despite never winning over this distance, but she will be super fit and prime to be right in the finish.
Our Kobison got gunned down by Tintookie last start but now gets a weight swing, which is what you want to see if you’re keen on it turning the tables. Has only missed the trifecta once in his career so I think you can back him with confidence if you like him.
Waverider Buoy is another one of those Waller stalwarts that just hang around like a bad smell in these benchmark races and always need to be respected no matter their price. I wouldn’t have it at $10 personally. Loves the track and loves the distance, gets some weight off the back with the apprentice claim. Watch the market.
Shohei rounds out selections. This prep has been really average, but his best can see him in the money.
Selections: 3-6-2-7
Suggested Bet: Tintookie Win
Race 10 – 1500M James Squire (Bm78)
Centrestone will do me. Been running really well in QLD before finally earning her way back to Sydney. Form behind Midnight In Tokyo is form that I respect quite highly, so I am happy to follow this horse in. Favourite in the last is boring, but sometimes you just need to play the straight bat.
Ita has been quite kind to us over the last couple of years. Loves getting the toe in the ground, but will it be still soggy towards the end of the day? Don’t think so, so that is quite the query. But she is super honest, so don’t be surprised if she puts in a blinder and gets up.
Mascaret is overs, plain and simple. Last prep she ran into some talented horses and just got outclassed, but she wasn’t terrible for her first prep down under. Now she has had more time to acclimatise, get stronger and fitter and could have a breakout prep here.
Give Me Joy is one I will tentatively put in the selections here, because I don’t want to miss out on her. She is lightly raced, yet to miss the quinella, but in much lower grade than this. Light weight, will be in the right part of the track to win. Dangerous.
Selections: 4-1-2-11
Suggested Bet: Centrestone Win
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: King Of Rosseau
Race 2: Elson Boy
Race 3: Lancaster Bomber
Race 4: NO BET
Race 5: Satin And Silk
Race 6: Lyrical Gangster
Race 7: Danaustar
Race 8: Step Aside (BEST BET)
Race 9: Tintookie
Race 10: Centrestone
Quaddie
Race 7: 4,5,7
Race 8: 4,7
Race 9: 2,3,6,7
Race 10: 1,2,3,4,11
$50 gets you 41%
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.
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1 Comment
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