Oh yes, the good horses are well and truly back and we celebrated with a solid 4 wins on the card last week and we were only a couple photo finishes away from 6/10 card as well. I am confident we can keep that momentum going here and right through the Autumn. The Carnival is finally here!
Track Report: Track is currently a Soft 6 and I would think with no more rain we’ll see the track start on either a Soft 5 or Good 4 and be upgraded throughout the day. If more rain falls, expect it to be Soft conditions all day. Rail in true position so racing should be as fair as fair can be.
Race 1 – 1600M Midway BM72
Kick off with the Midway here and I will be with Cirebon. I was at Canterbury to watch this horse’s last start and he ran really well and was hard done by not to win. He lead on the rails the entire trip and sustained his run down the straight without fading and was only just beaten on the line. I would expect he tries to shuffle over from the 8th barrier and tries to do it again and go one better this time.
Mahagoni has to go close here doesn’t he? Or surely it is time to think about retiring him. He was once one of the best benchmark horses going around and in the last 12 months he has fallen off a serious cliff. However, last start, he managed to make ground and run a really solid race behind Glory Daze, who would smash this field. That form should be enough to see him finish in the money here as a minimum.
Invincible Legend brings Estadio Mestalla form into this one and you would have to think that that is strong enough form to be running at least half decently here. He also wasn’t far off Contemporary the start before that as well, so I think this drop in grade should help quite a bit.
Monfelicity has dropped entirely off a cliff really. She is tough to trust with your money these days, but she always seems to read well placed which is why you can’t leave her out of selections.
Selections: 8-1-5-2
Suggested Bet: Cirebon Win
Race 2 – 1000M Darley Lonhro Plate
Hard race to pick. You would think Anode is the go being from the dominant Waterhouse camp, however, I am thinking of looking around them and going for Celerity. This is the horse that the market had not too far behind Lady Of Camelot last week before he got scratched at the barriers and injured JMac. If the market thought he was on par with a horse that did what Lady Of Camelot did then I am certainly interested in their thoughts here.
Castanya and Froebel both present as the value knockout chances in my mind as well, as they bring the race fitness, both finishing as the runner up in their debut outings. Castanya came 2nd to Switzerland and Froebel came 2nd to Too Darn Lizzie, which I think are two of the leading Slipper chances, so they should be running well here.
Selections: 8-1-7-9
Suggested Bet: Celerity Win
Race 3 – 1600M Inglis Classic Yearling Sale 11-13 Feb (Bm78)
I will go Nana’s Wish here in quite a thin race. Backed in to very short favouritism last start on the Kenso track in midweek company and she looked gone for all money late, but managed to knuckle down and get a tough victory for the punters. I think with extra ground and the 4kg weight drop, she should be running well.
Another Wil and Hell Hath No Fury would have to be picks 2 and 3, but they are also double nominated in Melbourne so it will be tough to judge them here. Neither has stepped a foot wrong this prep and come into this one off of a win, Hell Hath No Fury coming off of 2 actually. Both should sit amongst the chasing pack and do their best work late.
Malabar is the roughie knockout chance I would think considering he loves the distance, has been running quite solidly this time in and he is ready to peak 3rd up and run a strong race up on the pace. Watch the market to see if there are any late betting moves on him.
Selections: 8-3-4-5
Suggested Bet: Nana’s Wish Win
Race 4 – 1200M TAB Highway (C3)
I’ll be with Rapidash in the Highway simply because he has a victory over Black Duke in one of his final starts last prep. That horse has since come out and won his last two races and that is good enough form for me to have a whack at him each way.
Belvedere Boys is a short favourite for a highway, but you can see why the market doesn’t want to risk him. Yet to put a foot wrong, yet to miss the quinella in 4 starts, with a 2/2 record at this distance and 1/1 record when 2nd up. In form jockey booked as well fills me with more confidence that he could find himself backable despite the short price.
Atmospheric Rock needs a few scratchings to get into the race but, if he does, he is in this one up to his neck. One of those consistent characters that you know will always be somewhere around the finish.
Mr Wallace is a great roughie chances here. This is his pet distance, of which he is coming off a win from here. He has had great form all prep so far and you would think he can get into a stalking position from that 4th barrier that will put him in good stead.
Selections: 10-3-20-8
Suggested Bet: Rapidash Each Way
Race 5 – 1300M The Westmead Institute For Medical Research (Bm78)
I will go with Howgoodareyou. Have to respect the Waterhouse and Bott camp as they are simply flying at the moment. This horse won 4/6 races in his debut prep so she certainly has the ability to get the job done here. Lumped with a large weight but has a 2 weight claim to help with that. Draws the inside and is the only speed in the race, she should be hard to run down.
Gently Rolled is marked as the $3 favourite currently thanks to the strong form behind the talented Willaidow. Ran great last start, however, she just peaked in fitness really. She should strip fitter from that effort and give an almighty kick in the latter stages of the race.
Rupertaar almost never runs a bad race and should be respected here. Comes into this one off of a solid run behind Tashi where she just couldn’t quite round them up. I believe she is knocking on the door of retirement after this prep, so lets hope she can get one final win before that happens.
Elettrica will get better over further, but she is more than capable of finding her way into the money here.
Selections: 2-7-3-6
Suggested Bet: Howgoodareyou Win
race 6 – 1200M Silverdale Farm Eskimo Prince Stakes
I will be with a horse that was a sneaky fly under the radar type in Spring in Celestial Legend. He was running around with Ozzmosis in that prep and we all know how much I rate him. I think he is in for a huge prep and should mature into a real 1200-1600m type that has a blistering finish and he can show that here with a win.
Griff is obviously a big danger here as he won the Caulfield Guineas. But in saying that, his best will likely come over longer, however, his trials have been real sharp and he was a surprise packet in the Spring, so there’s nothing to suggest he can’t surprise again here.
Tom Kitten another horse who will almost certainly get better over longer. He is after all, a Spring Champion Stakes winner. So its interesting to see him resume back at the sprints. He’ll likely need the run you would think, but class can take you a long way in this.
Encap was another surprise packet in the Spring. He, along with Kimochi came out and became Gary Portelli’s two next chances at Group 1 success, before both of them ended up becoming perennial place getters. Will be running on late.
Selections: 6-1-2-3
Suggested Bet: Celestial Legend Win
Race 7 – 1100M Inglis Millennium
Fully Lit just has to have my money. Is the 17th barrier a major query? Yes. Does he have the speed to overcome it? You would also think yes. However, he will have to do it the tough way and if he manages it, he will rocket into 2nd or 3rd favouritism for the Slipper you would think for sure. Bayliss will do everything in his power to get him over the line.
Odinson is a interesting prospect here. Tough luck on debut, before bouncing back with a gutsy win in the Inglis Nursery at the tail end of last year. Ridden by an Irish import jockey who was just fantastic in his short stint last year, so he could certainly pick up where he left off. Drawn to get shuffled back, which is the only major query on paper.
Trunk has to be considered a chance purely because of her trainer. Does he have to ability to stack up to his stablemate? From what he has shown so far, its looking more likely he doesn’t. However, he has the lead stable rider on and a much better draw, so don’t be surprised if he comes out and wins and becomes chance number 11 for Gai in the Slipper.
Rue De Royale has the formlines to be running well here, despite not really threatening to win in either of his starts to win. 5 lengths off of Bold Bastille, who some are saying are a moral at Caulfield, and a length and a half off of Shangri La Express, who is a top Slipper chance. Obviously needs to find more here, but his trials have been sharp.
Selections: 4-1-7-2
Suggested Bet: Fully Lit Win
Race 8 – 1000M Laurel Oak Bloodstock (Bm94)
Frilled might be the boring choice here but beware the unbeaten horse, you never know how good they are until they are beaten and so far this horse hasn’t lost a single race or trial and that is in 5 race attempts and 6 trials. Gets a soft draw to lead and set the pace, she will be hard to get past if her prior performances stack up. Is she really that good? Time to find out.
Derry Grove is flying, there is no two ways about it. He had a phenomenal prep in the Spring that was littered with victories and he came out and won with ease at the Magic Millions meeting on the Gold Coast when first up. He has well and truly earnt his position in a race like this.
Barber is a really interesting horse in the sense that as a 2YO, he was a top prospect and then he seemingly fell off a cliff in his 3YO spring prep. But, Ozzmosis form is form I respect and he’s got it. So, I will be watching him with a keen eye.
Omni Man‘s form speaks for itself here. 3/4 when first up, 5/7 when at this distance, 1/2 at the track, it all just screams back me doesn’t it? So, I couldn’t possibly leaver him out of the numbers.
Selections: 8-3-7-2
Suggested Bet: Frilled Win
Race 9 – 1600M Asi Solutions Hcp
I am a huge Marquess guy. Is his best over a little longer than this? Yes, but he has won from 1300 all the way to 1900, so he is versatile and super tough. His best can certainly win this even with the distance query. His last start was a butcher job that saw him posted 3 wide and gassed enough his whole prep was cut short. The same man rides him on Saturday in Zac Lloyd, lets hope and pray it goes better this time around.
Amor Victorious has only missed the trifecta twice in his career and considering he has 3 from his last 4 runs, he is prime to get up again here and add another win to his regime. Undefeated at this distance and if the track stays soggy, he is undefeated in those conditions as well.
Floating and Principessa round out the selections as value knockout chances, but I am very confident one of the top two selections will be winning this.
Selections: 7-8-10-9
Suggested Bet: Marquess Win
Race 10 – 1200M Precise Air (Bm78)
Tintookie is a horse I have followed quite closely the last few preps as she is just so honest. What you see is what you get. You know she’ll put every effort in and end up somewhere near the finish. Throw in the fact that her running mate has been Our Kobison of late and last week he managed to smash the clock and break the Rosehill Track record for 1200m reads fantastically on paper.
So Good So Cool is a horse I have also followed quite closely and boy oh boy will I be mad if he finally gets his very deserved win here without me on at a great price. Consistent horse who is never too far away and we know my admiration for the Sara Ryan stable already. Solid each way play.
Fire and Mrs Chrissie round out selections, but once again, I am very confident in my top two selections, especially Tintookie.
Selections: 3-7-2-8
Suggested Bet: Tintookie Win (BEST BET)
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Cirebon
Race 2: Celerity
Race 3: Nana’s Wish
Race 4: Rapidash
Race 5: Howgoodareyou
Race 6: Celestial Legend
Race 7: Fully Lit
Race 8: Frilled
Race 9: Marquess
Race 10: Tintookie (BEST BET)
Quaddie
Race 7: 1,2,4,7
Race 8: 2,3,7,8
Race 9: 7,8
Race 10: 3,7
$50 gets you 78%
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