Well wasn’t that a return back to reality? One win on the day, the best bet loses by a bob of the head in the last for the 2nd week straight. But as they say, the great game aye. It has been our curse the last few weeks, being on the losing side of so many photo finishes, it has been painful, but let’s hope we can turn it around this weekend!
Track Report: Track is currently a Good 4, but throw in a bit of rain expected to fall before raceday kicks off we could tip into the Soft region, can’t see it getting any worse than a 6 since the rain is only light. Rail in the 4 metres position the entire circuit, which is just on the edge of when leaders start to get a slight advantage at Randwick, but nothing too major.
Race 1 – 1100M Pierro Plate
The 2YO feature of the weekend and its hotly contested.
I am with the horse that is the 3rd favourite in the Slipper – Shangri La Express. Just phenomenal in everything he has done to date. Big, strong, tough, everything you want in an early 2YO. Will go to the front and kick hard down the straight and hopefully get up
Switzerland looks fantastic and is the 2nd favourite for the Slipper after a super impressive showing on debut. Comes here at a very short price off of that impressive showing and the whole industry will be keeping a close eye on him, as at the moment, he is really the only strong challenger to knock off the GaiBott machine in the Slipper. He is just too short for me.
Extreme Diva set to potentially run at the Friday Night Canterbury meeting, but if she runs here she is more than capable of finding her way into the money if her debut run was anything to go off. She ran solidly behind Lady Of Camelot, who is currently, according to the market, the best filly in the Slipper, so the form reads well for this.
Excelindeed rounds out selections due to the sheer domination that the GaiBott camp has had in races such as this. On paper, he is a place chance at very best, but would anyone really be shocked if he came out and won?
Selections: 1-2-7-5
Suggested Bet: Shangri La Express Win
Race 2 – 1000M Midway (BM72)
Taking Mad Darcey in the Midway. Has been trialling in really strong company, which looks the goods on paper. This was followed by a really strong victory first up at Gosford and can go on with it here. Should sit right behind the speed and be one of the strongest late.
Rebel Dean and Delexo come in as the 2nd and 3rd selections respectfully. They both have the same formlines of coming out of the Our Kobison and Tintookie race that has provided some solid subsequent performances. They’ll both likely settle somewhere just off the pace and try and show their hand in the final stages.
Beep Test is always a sneaky roughie chance a she is never too far away in the run and has the engine to sustain a run down the straight late. Should take plenty of fitness from the first up run at Canterbury.
Selections: 13-4-1-7
Suggested Bet: Mad Darcey Each Way
Race 3 – 1800m TAB Highway (C3)
Denarau for me in the Highway. Been in solid form this prep with a solid run of placings. In saying that, she has mostly been running at Provincial and country tracks with only one city run coming at Randwick late last year finishing 2 lengths off the finish in the highway. Last start she made a lot of ground late and now gets a jump in distance that will only help you would think. Happy to take a small each way play on her.
Lensman was very close to being my top selection, but I have chucked him at the second selection in the end. The main reasoning behind that lies in the weather. Dry track seems to be the secret to his power. Can win on soft, but is a completely different horse when the deck is firm under his feet. Since the track is predicted to be soggy, I have bumped him down a peg. Remains a solid each way play.
Magic Pharoah has a tough relationship with the Highway this prep. So far 3 starts, two of them quite solid, the latest not so much. However, that can be blamed on the solid amount of traffic that the horse encountered going down the straight. A clearer lane should give her a better opportunity.
Merisi is one of the few in the race that should inject any sort of pace and considering he can go on all conditions he is certainly a danger to watch.
Selections: 12-2-10-3
Race 4 – 1300M Kia Ora Stud (BM84)
Will be with Tashi in this one. Super gutsy to get the job done first up and she looks like she will be in for a strong prep. She will ride the speed and use to slingshot her into the finish. She has never raced in this strong a field, but she gets right down in the weights to help off set that and considering she can go in just about all conditions, she is prime to get another win here.
Winchat is also coming off of a solid win and will be in the right part of the track to make a strong run. Expect him to roll forward and try and blitz the field with pure pace, as he did on the Kenso track last start. Just can’t entertain the price he is at.
Cuban Royale the old journeyman. 9 years old, 70 starts, yet only 10 wins and he still keeps on kicking. Last seen running down the track behind Zou Tiger in open listed grade. Massive drop in grade here which could be the key to his success.
Danish Fortune intrigues me here. Not often an Adelaide based horse makes their way over to Sydney, especially first up, so clearly the trainer is confident in his ability. Last seen splitting a smart pair in a Group 3 no less. Watch the market.
Selections: 9-8-1-3
Suggested Bet: Tashi Win
Race 5 – 1200M G2 Expressway Stakes
Hot, Hot race here. King of Sparta, Buenos Noches, Straight Acer, Coal Crusher, Golden Mile. Any of them could win and I wouldn’t be surprised one bit.
Buenos Noches is very short here for good reason. Almost beat Imperatriz in the Spring and beat In Secret, so he is to be considered one of the better sprinters in this country let alone this race. Honestly I really don’t want to touch this race from a punting perspective. If you’re desperate for a bet, perhaps play a SRM or a quinella, but Buenos Noches likely wins.
If King Of Sparta gets a dry track, he is the horse to beat in my mind, if it is slightly soggy, his chances drop drastically. Which has led me to not take him as the top selection. Usually I am on him wherever he goes, but if he finds some water on the track, he will likely go to water.
Malkovich is one that I could potentially entertain as the horse who could steal the race using pure pace, as he should be the only one to go forward and really try and set a hot tempo. He is a must for exotics and should be considered as a place KO chance.
Golden Mile’s best can win this for sure. But we haven’t seen his best since about Spring 2022 when he was running around as a fresh faced 3YO. Certainly a danger, but honestly needs to start showing something before they decide if its stud time or gelding time.
Selections: 4-1-6-3
Suggested Bet: Buenos Noches, King Of Sparta, Malkovich Top 4 SRM
Race 6 – 1200M G3 Triscay Stakes
Really open race here, so why not go for a bit of value here and take Penthouse at odds. She has been absolutely super this prep so far and I think she can certainly be in the finish here if not win at stakes class. She was G3 placed last start and almost won the whole race and was phenomenal considering the track bias that day. She’ll go right to the front and prove hard to get past.
Semana is a strong strong horse and I have a lot of respect for her. She is coming off a fantastic win up at the Magic Millions meeting and can go on with it here. No trials in between has me a touch worried she could find herself underdone 5 weeks between runs, but she’s talented, she’s tough, she’s smart, she could’ve run in better races than this, so she will be the one with the target on her back going around the turn.
C’est Magique is a strange prospect. Always has spurts of brilliance before failing to go on with it. 2nd in a Coolmore and a 3rd in a Gilgai would usually have her in far better classes than this. On paper, she should be a G1 horse. Unfortunately, she’s only managed to win 1 race and place in 3 others in 9 starts at the races. The elements are there, she just has to put them all together on race day.
Diamond Dealer is a talented horse for the Benchmark ranks, however, she might find herself a touch outclassed here. But, in saying that, she 100% deserves another crack at Group racing and a win wouldn’t completely shock me as it would others.
Selections: 7-2-4-6
Suggested Bet: Penthouse Each Way
Race 7 – 1400m G2 Apollo Stakes
I will, to the surprise of nobody, be sticking with Fangirl. Love her, she’s up there with my favourite horses going around at the moment. JMac won’t mess around, he will get her into the right position up behind the speed and just truck along until it is time to smash past them in the straight. Confident she gets the choccies.
Buckaroo was one of the plainer international imports in the Spring, but he has stuck around and found himself in the hands of the one and only Chris Waller. His trials have been fantastic and he looks ready to rock and roll here and finds himself at a very backable price mind you. I think he is a big danger if Waller has managed to get the best out of him.
Think It Over and Cascadian are the two old boys that are still kicking around and still present as two very strong KO chances. Both will be looking to run over the top of them late and should be included in all exotics.
Selections: 8-4-1-2
Suggested Bet: Fangirl Win (BEST BET)
RACE 8 – 1200m G2 lIGHT fINGERS sTAKES
I am with THE best girl in the Autumn last year before a shock injury almost ended her career Learning To Fly. If she is still the same horse, she can smash them here and her trials have looked outstanding. I usually like to see horses coming off such a break go around without me because of the risk of them being a little underdone, but I am willing to break that rule here and take Learning To Fly to win.
Kimochi has become one of those always the bridesmaid, never the bride type of horse who continues to plug away and come 2nd an 3rd. She is a super talent and deserves to win a big race at some point in her career and can find it here. Will be running on late.
Tiz Invincible was THE girl in the Spring. Was she a big fish in a small pond though? Or is she the special talent that it appears she can be? This is her chance to prove it. Trials have been nothing short of impressive, she’s ready to go, will be the one they need to beat come the latter stages.
Kristilli was outclassed in a field of older horses. Now back to the 3YO restricted race could have her in great stead to put in a ripper performance.
Selections: 3-1-2-5
Suggested Bet: Learning To Fly Win
Race 9 – 1600M Ranvet (Bm88)
Open affair here so I am going to revert to a horse I am quite familiar with in Miracle Spin. Won excellently when second up at this track and distance and over a couple of horses who line up here as well. Was very flat when 3rd up at Flemington when he failed as the short favourite to fire a shot. Trialled since, should be ready to go and I’ll happily have an each way play.
Estadio Mestalla has all cylinders firing thanks to Joe Pride. He has really gotten the most out of this horse and he knocked off some very solid horses last start when on the quick backup. 2 weeks between runs here, but up in distance to 1600, where he is 2/3 in his career. Bound to run well.
Louisville is going to be somewhere in the money if his form this prep is anything to go off. He hasn’t missed the trifecta once this prep and he has had 6 starts, which is fantastic consistency. He also has 2 wins this prep, neither of them at this track however.
Bullit is flying. In career best form right now, steps up in grade and as a result he will drop 5kg. Finds his pet distance as well, great each way chance to get up.
Selections: 9-5-10-12
Suggested Bet: Miracle Spin Each Way
Race 10 – 1400m Chandon Garden Spritz (BM78)
Again I have to go favourite in the last, call me boring but when you look at Thunderlips’ form you have to be impressed. First up, ran fairly in a strong field, almost all of which have gone on to win subsequent races, including the winner of that race Caballus, who last week won the Group 3 contest. Gibbons on board, down in weights, trainer is flying with Bjorn training at a 33% win rate in the last couple of weeks, all signs point to a strong run.
Gracilistyla is as consistent as they come. It is criminal that this horse only has 2 wins to his name, despite the fact he is almost always less than a couple of lengths off of the finish. Will appreciate it if the track still has some juice in it towards the end of the day.
Time Quest is a great prospect for Matt Smith. His first Aussie prep was solid enough to show he has potential to win plenty of races. He comes here off of a solid trial win, over some decent horses, which increases the confidence that he will put in a decent effort here.
Starman rounds out selections. He has been running solidly enough to warrant a place in the money come the end of this race.
Selections: 9-3-8-5
Suggested Bet: Thunderlips Win
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Shangri La Express
Race 2: Mad Darcey
Race 3: Denarau
Race 4: Tashi
Race 5: Buenos Noches
Race 6: Penthouse
Race 7: Fangirl (BEST BET)
Race 8: Learning To Fly
Race 9: Miracle Spin
Race 10: Thunderlips
Quaddie
Race 7: 1,2,4,8,10
Race 8: 1,2,3,5
Race 9: 5,9,10,12
Race 10: 3,9
$50 gets you 31%
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