Last week, might just have been the most frustrated I have ever been at the races. Went into Randwick full of confidence in my tips and walked out with a wallet full of bonus bets. Why? Because 5 of my tips ran 2nd. 5! You’ve got to be joking! But, the luck surely has to turn, it is a long carnival and we can turn those 2nds in to wins soon enough. Let’s go!
Track Report: Track is currently a Soft 7 and it has been quite hot today so the track can dry out, but with rain scheduled both tomorrow and on Saturday, it should be a soggy track, so make sure to look for horses who can get the job done in the wet. Rail in the true position and every horse should get a fair chance at victory.
Race 1 – 1500M Midway (Bm74)
Taking Pharoah’s Reign here. I was on her a few weeks ago where she ran a solid 3rd behind a smart type in Black Duke and her issue was mostly the short distance. She gets better the further she goes and the jump in distance by 150m here should help immensely. Clark should get her into a good position with little speed drawn under her and at her price, she is certainly worth an each way play.
Smart Legend might have been 5 lengths off of him, but he was still ran behind Winchat a couple of weeks ago on the Kenso track. That horse has since made the jump to a higher grade than this last week and beat them quite convincingly again. That form could go a long way here.
Glad You Think So is an interesting horse here. He was running around in 3YO Group races in the Spring, including the G1 Spring Champion Stakes. So now he drops down to Midway level. Draws to do no work and if he brings his potential class, he can certainly win.
Satness rounds out selections as he is never too far away in these races.
Selections: 5-14-8-13
Suggested Bet: Pharoah’s Reign Each Way
Race 2 – 1400M Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
Highways are always difficult and an 18 horse field in these conditions won’t make it any easier. I will look at Vinolass in this one. Lightly raced, full of improvement to come from the look of her starts to date and has only ever run in the wet so the conditions will be no issue. Only query is she has never gone past 1100m, but her run first up suggests she has the legs for it. If she does, she’ll be hard to beat in my mind.
Atmospheric Rock is a horse I can never seem to catch. Wanted to be with him last start, second guessed myself and he got up. I have done the same thing here, so fingers crossed he doesn’t make me look silly twice, but I can’t deny he is a strong chance, even with the extremely wide barrier.
Belvedere Boys will have to turn the tables on Atmospheric Rock after getting out run in he final stages last start. That was the first time this horse has gone unplaced in 5 starts. Takes a lot of fitness from that run and shouldn’t get as far back as last time.
Rapidash rounds out selections. Comes out of that same race with Belvedere Boys and Atmospheric Rock when she never really got clear from traffic. Pure forgive run and can bonce back here.
Selections: 21-4-2-6
Suggested Bet: Vinolass Each Way
Race 3 – 1100M Queen Bee Project Sprint (Bm78)
Shezanalister and Dipsy Doodle are the horses that share the top of the market right now, both look to be super hard to beat.
I think Shezanlister that is the one to be on at the end of the day. Flying right now, coming off of 3 straight wins, all of which were just as impressive as the other. Beat Tintookie last start by the bob of the head, which is a horse I respect highly, which is why it was my best bet on the day. Bjorn as a trainer, is also flying, which helps.
Dispy Doodle is a fantastic prospect here but does she even run on Saturday when there is an easier race on Friday night? If she does, she is well placed, gets in well at the weights, has JMac on his back and the Our Kobison form can go a long way.
Ballroom Bella is a solid knockout chance here. Did more than enough in her debut prep to suggest she will have a strong 2nd career prep. Trials have been strong and will be the one they have to chase down in the end.
Bandi’s Boy is undefeated when 2nd up and can go in all conditions, certainly a lock for exotics.
Selections: 2-8-11-1
Suggested Bet: Shezanlister Win
Race 4 – 1100M Silver Slipper Stakes
Straight Charge for me. Speaks for itself really. 2nd in the breeders plate, win in the Drinkwise plate late last year before being kept on ice this whole time instead of heading to Magic Millions. Has the stable’s lead rider on board and should be hard to get past.
Gatsby’s for Chris Waller is a horse I will be keeping a close eye on here. Waller’s 2YO’s have been running really well lately and this horse has been trialling super. Considering he is on debut and would need the win here to be getting into the Slipper you would think, there will be great intent to get the job done at a massive price.
Espionage is the Breeder’s Plate winner and has been kept on ice since. His trials have been great, including one that has produced a few subsequent winners, including stablemate Prost. Should be sitting just off Straight Charge in the run and will likely have quite the kick late.
Embassy is by no means the Snowden’s number 1 2YO seed, but they clearly want to see him in the Slipper, otherwise they wouldn’t have booked JMac here. Should make the leaders work for it and could prove hard to run down if he skips away and tries to steal it.
Selections: 2-5-1-3
Suggested Bet: Straight Charge Win and Gatsby’s Each Way
Race 5 – 1900M Parramatta Cup
So United has the fitness edge on this crew and is flying. Won 2 races really well so far this prep, with this race likely the one in mind, before potentially staying on ice for a Sydney Cup perhaps? But at his current price I am keen to have a play on him. He’ll push to the front and kick hard and can definitely end up in the money.
Canberra Legend didn’t really live up to the hype in the Spring with 2 quite mediocre starts. However, Waller knows how to turn these imports around better than anybody and they almost always go better in their 2nd prep down under than their first. Big danger if he brings his European best.
Zennzella ran on pretty strongly behind So United last start on the Gold Coast, so I am unsurprised why the market has her at a short price here. She’s fit, in form and very well placed at the weights. Should be one of the strongest late.
Kalapour rightly found himself way out classed in a Melbourne Cup. Granted he had a so-so barrier and an apprentice on board so a couple of minimal excuses, but even so, he wasn’t good enough to even be there. This is more his speed. Certainly not the worst.
Selections: 11-15-13-3
Suggested Bet: So United Each Way
Race 6 – 1400M Yarraman Park (Bm100)
Marquess for me here. I was disappointed that he managed to get himself gapped so convincingly last start. The only real excuses I could come up with was the short distance and the lack of race fitness being first up. That being said, the drop back in distance seems strange, but James Cummings is no idiot, if he didn’t think that was an ideal set up, he wouldn’t do it. Placed excellently weight wise and if he is sharp enough, he wins.
Fawkner Park is a horse I have a lot of time for. He does, however, do his best work over much further than this, but he can certainly find his way into the placings if he stays withing striking distance and doesn’t get too far back.
Robusto a solid chance here. One of Waller’s perennial placing machines in the Cerise silks. Should arguably have more wins to his name and recently his form has been franked with a couple of horses who have beat him and run behind him winning/running strongly in their subsequent starts.
Kinloch is going for 3 in a row here, loves the distance and is a swimmer, so he is a solid chance to be wary of.
Selections: 13-10-11-6
Suggested Bet: Marquess Win
Race 7 – 1300M Millie Fox Stakes
Lady Laguna for me. Is Zougotcha a massive threat if she brings her best? Of course, JMac wouldn’t have jumped off of Laguna for the Big Z if she wasn’t looking like she could. But Lady Laguna is in career best form and is absolutely flying. In my mind here, with the fitness edge and the love for wet tracks, Schiller just needs to let her go. The old saying, let fast horses run fast. She is short, but she is one of my more confident bets of the day quite honestly.
Howgoodareyou and Lekvarte are the other two I would be sing to fill the exotics, as I do believe that one of the two top selections will be the winner.
Selections: 6-1-11-7
Suggested Bet: Lady Laguna Win (BEST BET)
Race 8 – 1400M Precise Air Hobartville Stakes
Strong field here but I’ve got the blinkers on for one horse and one horse only, Celestial Legend. I believe that this horse is a G1 winner in waiting and I still believe it, BUT, he needs to show me something here for me to remain that confident. Fitness gave out last start, so with the added fitness and the extra distance, I think he can at least make it into the money, if not win.
Encap next for me. One of the few horses here that doesn’t prefer a longer distance. The one career win came at this distance and boy he was running on strongly last start over the 1200m mark. Portelli is really hitting is stride lately, so wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out and wins.
Fukubana has yet to miss the placings in his short career to date. Not often that Matty Dunn puts a horse in this strong of a race and not perform well. The booking of JMac tells me how confident the camp is as well. Could firm in betting late and salute on the plunge.
Tom Kitten is a vulnerable favourite in my mind. He does his best work over much further and has bigger fish to fry this prep than this race here.
Selections: 7-2-11-1
Suggested Bet: Celestial Legend Each Way
Race 9 – 1100M Chandon (Bm94)
This is a very interesting race, because you Frilled, Derry Grove and Renosu in this one. Why is that interesting? Because those 3 horses were in a blanket finish all within a whisker of each other when losing to Brudenell two weeks ago at Randwick. Very evenly matched by the handicapper that day and the weights have all been shifted slightly here. Even though Derry Grove will give 6 kilos to Frilled, I have to be with him. Loves the wet, loves the distance, absolutely flying, at a solid each way price, I have to take him on.
Red Card rounds out selections as the favourite to cover in the exotics. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Top 3 ran the trifecta.
Selections: 2-11-7-4
Suggested Bet: Derry Grove Each Way
Race 10 – 1300M Kia Ora Stud (Bm78)
4th week in a row I am going the favourite in the get out stakes. Gently Rolled looks very well placed here, comes in here off of a nice win against quite a few of the horses he meets again here. Drawn to do no work in getting to a good spot in transit, can go in all conditions and should be one of the strongest late.
I am a big True Crime guy. Kim Waugh trained horse that had his Spring prep cut short thanks to a bit of an injury. Reports say he is back to his best and his trials have backed that claim up in my opinion. Drawn quite wide, but has the speed to overcome that and find his way into the finish in my opinion.
Dakota Vroom comes out of the same race as Gently Rolled and quite honestly is the only one from that race that I believe could turn the tables here. Loves the wet and should find herself in a solid position in the run amongst the pack. Just needs a clear run late.
Romeo’s Choice is flying and in career best form this prep. Yes, most of his runs have been in much weaker fields, but once you get on a winning roll, sometimes that is all you need to keep that form going. Solid knockout chance.
Selections: 19-4-6-10
Suggested Bet: Gently Rolled Win
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Pharaoh’s Reign
Race 2: Vinolass
Race 3: Shezanalister
Race 4: Straight Charge
Race 5: So United
Race 6: Marquess
Race 7: Lady Laguna (BEST BET)
Race 8: Celestial Legend
Race 9: Derry Grove
Race 10: Gently Rolled
Quaddie
Race 7: 1,6
Race 8: 2,7,11
Race 9: 2,7,11
Race 10: 3,4,6,10,15,19
$50 gets you 46%
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