Last week was another one of those oh so close days. Managed to snag a nice win in the Highway, every other race ended up being placings central. This week, however, we tick over to February, you know what that means – Stakes racing is back, Golden Slipper season is heating up and the strong horses are almost ready to step out. Let’s get into it!
Track Report: Track should be a genuine Good 4 by the jump of the first race and with the rail out 6 metres for the entire circuit, horses will want to be in the first half of the field going around the bend to have the strongest chance of winning.
Race 1 – 1350M Midway (Bm72)
I’ll take Pharaoh’s Reign here for a whack at the stumps. Tim Clark should get her up on the pace where she does her best work and as long as she doesn’t over race, she should be right in the thick of things late. Usually likes to get over longer distances and get her toe in the ground, but has been known to be quite sharp when fresh.
Dimaggio found himself in much sharper company the last time he was in a Midway, when he ran 4 lengths off winner Willaidow. He will however, gain a lot of fitness from that run and will surely improve drastically 2nd up, as he has never missed the trifecta in 5 goes.
Trezie is this week’s lightly raced, full of promise prospect that gets its chance to hang with the big boys for the first time after impressing at the midweek level. Has yet to miss the trifecta in its short career, can go in all conditions and will carry absolute feathers.
Black Duke is a consistent character who never finds himself too far away in these sorts of contests. Will be one of the strongest home and should be respected.
Selections: 3-1-9-6
Suggested Bet: Pharaoh’s Reign
Race 2 – 1500M Tab Highway Plate (C3)
Taking Cenotes in this one. Drawn to do no work on the rails and find himself in a stalking position behind the main leaders. Has had two forgive runs to date this prep, with the first ending in horror as he was severely bumped and taken out of it, followed by a run on a soft deck, which he has been known to dislike way more than his much preferred dry deck. Gets that here and should go well.
Stay Safe was very impressive at Ballina last start, there is no two ways about it. He was backed into Winx like odds and then proceeded to smash the rest of the pack by almost 6 lengths, so his spot here as favourite is warranted. Gets the most in form jockey in NSW right now in Nash Rawiller on board, so you know he will get every chance.
Missile Leader has 1 start to date in Highway company and that was when he ran a respectable 6th at this track to finish off his winter prep. Since he has had two solid starts in the country, the last of which was a tough win. Gets Tommy Berry on board and a decent draw, he should put in a decent effort.
Elson Boy rounds out selections. I was on him last start where he put in a slightly above average performance where he tired late. The fitness and slight drop in distance should help.
Selections: 3-5-17-4
Suggested Bet: Cenotes Each Way
Race 3 – 1100M Arrowfield Canonbury Stakes
Here is where the Slipper Season starts to pick up as the 2YO Stakes races begin for the year. This one being for the boys.
Prost seems the obvious choice from the market perspective, but I do indeed think he deserves the pricetag. His only start to date was a fantastic run in the Breeder’s Plate, where he finished less than a length off the winner. He has since had two faultless trials that saw him beat some proven talents, like stablemate Shangri La Express. Gai Waterhouse horses must always be respected as well in races such as this.
King Of Rosseau tired late to get beaten by a fair margin by Fully Lit, who is another one of Waterhouse’s top Slipper prospects. He will push to the front and give the something to chase and considering this will be his 3rd start, compared to most of the field who is first up, he will have the fitness edge.
Fearless also comes from the Breeder’s Plate, where he also wasn’t far off the finish. Since then he has had two nice trial wins, both over Bodyguard, who has already proven to be an early 2YO Stakes winner, so that form reads excellently on paper.
Excelindeed is yet another Waterhouse horse who could measure up here. First start for the camp, but you know he will be rock hard fit and somewhere near the front going into the final stages, certainly an upset chance.
Selections: 8-6-5-4
Suggested Bet: Prost Win
Race 4 – 1200M Tab Southern Cross Stakes
I have always been a big Lady Laguna guy and hence I have to be on her here, especially since she is absolutely flying. Found her niche up in QLD recently with a couple of strong wins that has her in career best form. Comes back to Sydney now with a strong set up. JMac on board, should put her on the tail of the leader and run past him in the straight.
That leader in question will be no doubt Malkovich. He has become a bit of a money muncher of late, one of those trials like Tarzan runs like Jane types. However, he is excellently placed here in a race that is not that deep on talent. With the rail out so far, a soft draw and a readiness to peak 3rd up, he is prime to be running very well and finding himself very hard to get past.
Hard To Say and Kristillli perhaps the only others I could possibly entertain, but I think the first two will be the only two strong winning chances here.
Selections: 3-2-6-8
Suggested Bet: Lady Laguna Win
Race 5 – 1100M Widden Stakes
Now for the girls to have a crack at Stakes level racing.
I hate backing both short favourites in 2YO races especially, but I just can’t go past Lady Of Camelot. Everything she has done to date has been super impressive and she looks to be another one of Waterhouse’s seemingly endless Slipper chances. She was arguably the most impressive Filly at the first juvenile trials back in September before being swooped late in the Gimcrack Stakes. Her trials since have been nothing short of impeccable. She is ready to go and ready to win a race.
Manaal is the other girl I am really interested in here. She put in a real under the radar performance at those September trials and as a result Nicko specked her at over $40 on the podcast in the Gimcrack and low and behold she got the job done. She will be super strong late and be ripe to pounce on them if the leaders go too hard up front.
Wavebreaker has trial form around all the right horses to be running well here as she has been well held in the company of Manaal, Fearless and Bodyguard, all top early 2YO prospects. The stable is starting to hit their stride with their 2YO’s as well and Kerrin McEvoy is on a strong run of form also, definite betting watch.
Pushpa rounds out selections. If any horse is going to cause a huge upset at big odds it will be this girl I feel. Well bred out of a solid 2YO performer and has shown more and more promise with every trial. Annabel Neasham has managed to produce a few very strong 2YO’s in the last couple of years so this girl winning wouldn’t shock me.
Selections: 6-1-9-7
Suggested Bet: Lady Of Camelot Win
Race 6 – 2000M James Squire (Bm78)
Age Of Sail for me. No secret I love a good import stayer as they are typically much stronger than the ones we produce down under. This boy looks to be a solid pick up for the Lees stable, which, if they play their cards right, could end up at stakes company by the end of the prep I feel. He was tasked with a big weight and unfamiliar distance when first up at Warwick Farm, but still knuckled down and got the job done. Fitter and up to a much preferred staying distance and he should be extremely hard to beat.
Morning Sun could honestly have a cut and paste description there. European stayer imported by a top stable, who are known for getting the best out of imports and he comes out of the very same race as Age Of Sail when he came a very narrow second to him. I think these two could gap the rest and be a simple quinella, just like they were at Warwick Farm.
Jack Duggan and Kettle Hill are the two I believe will be running for 3rd and hence round out selections here.
Selections: 2-4-9-1
Suggested Bet: Age Of Sail Win
Race 7 – 1500M Breed 4 Speed With Kia Ora Stallions (Bm88)
Getting back on the Ita train here. She has had a horror run with barriers as of late which has taken her out of races. But she draws soft here which has her right in the thick of things. Went three wide, after getting a bit of the ways back from a wide draw in her last start but still battled on for 3rd in a flashing run. The good draw and weight relief, with Dyl Gibbons on board should have her in great stead.
Robusto has found himself a purple patch of form and with another win here could finally shed his tag of always being the bridesmaid, as he will have just as many wins as placings. JMac sticks after getting him over the line last start in solid company and by almost a couple of lengths as well. Draws to get a cushy run as well.
Logan Street Lion does his best work over longer distances, but he has been known to run very well when fresh and his form was scattered with top talents last prep such as Marquess and Just Fine, two horses who I hold in very high regard.
Estadio Mestalla comes here on the one week back up with a quick jump in distance. Joe Pride is the absolute king of this set up so don’t be surprised if he comes out and wins despite having to pick up 3 lengths in just 7 days.
Selections: 8-2-4-6
Suggested Bet: Ita Each Way
Race 8 – 1350M Vale Bill Camer (Bm78)
Infatuation is a horse that I have been on many times and he has done me both well and terribly in the past if I am being honest. However, to her credit, she has often found herself outclassed in tough fields. She managed to finish just a length off the winner in the recent Magic Millions 3YO Guineas, which tells me she has more ability in her then she lets on. Fingers crossed she can put in her best effort here and get over the top.
Buillt has been racing in career best form as of late and needs to be respected as such. Stays in the same grade and drops in distances which is an odd set up and gets him lumped with the top weight, but he has 3 wins from his last 4 runs and JMac on board, so he will have every chance to make it 4 from his last 5.
Gracilistyla will likely be in the finish as its just her nature to be right in the thick of things, threaten to win, before peaking and finishing a strong 2nd or 3rd. Will likely get towards the rear but as long as she stays within striking distance she is a chance.
Saltcoats did enough without setting the world on fire in his first Australian prep. The form from that first prep has since stacked up, producing a stack of subsequent winners as well. Trials have been solid. Could explode here.
Selections: 9-1-4-7
Suggested Bet: Infatuation Win
Race 9 – 1200M Schweppes (Bm88)
So Good So Cool for me. How many times have I praised Sara Ryan in these articles? I just think she has a fantastic record for a boutique stable. For those wondering she currently trains at 23% win rate and 46% place rate so far this season and you would have almost doubled your money if you backed every single one of her horses to win. This horse has been building to a win all prep and I believe it comes here.
Our Kobison is obviously the big danger, as it has been in ripping form as of late. He has barely put a foot wrong in his career and was super when bursting clear late to win his last start. JMac sticks which shows he clearly likes the horse, has every chance to gap them again, I just can’t entertain the current price of being under $2. So if it wins, it will be without my money.
Dipsy Doodle is another horse who has been super consistent to date so far and has been in the company of some very strong horses, who have since gone on to be group performers. Trials have been good, one of the main dangers.
Dalaalaat could make an argument for being the most consistent benchmark horse in the country. In his last 5 starts he has 1 wind and 4 losses, if you combine the margin of those losses, it adds up to less than 3 lengths combined, displaying that he is almost always in the finish. I expect he will put in a similar effort here.
Selections: 9-6-10-2
Suggested Bet: So Good So Cool Each Way
Race 10 – 1200M Expect It All This Autumn At Atc (Bm72)
The Black Cloud for me and I am confident she gets the choccies. 2/2 to start her career, both of which have been very smart outings, where she has pushed to the front and gotten the job done by simply out pacing her opponents. Jay Ford sticks which is something I like to see from Joe Pride in sticking to what has been working instead of giving the ride to a bigger name. She is the bottom weight and is well drawn. Excellently placed and should win this one on her way to much bigger and better things.
Stefi Magnetica is the other lightweight filly that will make sure the favourite doesn’t get everything her way. Looked like a good thing down at Flemington last start, but just got outrun by a stronger horse. I also suspect she prefers going around a bend. Can definitely bounce back here off of that.
Afterlight and Convincebility round out selections to add some juice to the trifectas. But I am confident one of the top two selections are winning, especially the favourite.
Selections: 14-13-2-3
Suggested Bet: The Black Cloud Win (BEST BET)
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Pharaoh’s Magic
Race 2: Cenotes
Race 3: Prost
Race 4: Lady Laguna
Race 5: Lady Of Camelot
Race 6: Age Of Sail
Race 7: Ita
Race 8: Infatuation
Race 9: So Good So Cool
Race 10: The Black Cloud (BEST BET)
Quaddie
Race 7: 2,4,8,6
Race 8: 1,9
Race 9: 2,6,9,10
Race 10: 13,14
$50 gets you 78.12%
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