Light on winners last week, but at least it was a big one with Celestial Legend paying off that Futures tip of $11 in the Randwick Guineas given a few weeks back. We enjoy those spoils, but we need to get that hit rate up. Looking for a bounce back here.
Track Report: Track is currently a Good 4 and that shouldn’t change with very hot days scheduled all the way in the lead up to race day. The rail is in the true position so racing should be as fair as fair can be.
Race 1 – 1200M Midway (BM72)
Mad Darcey just tips itself doesn’t she? She’s had 2 wins and a narrow 2nd so far this prep, all of them with lovely swooping runs. She was flying last start when running over the top of them to win, add another 100m onto that. Please, I’m all over her.
Black Duke has always been uber consistent, but never got many wins to his name. However, they seem to have unlocked the secret recipe with some gear changes and he has managed to win 2 on the trot. Can the secret formula keep working? Has to carry a lot of weight, but his best can win.
Flying Sultan is a bit of a battler that races for a battler trainer in Mitch Beer. Keeps kicking on this prep and has been racing really well in the country and provincial grades. Managed to spank his rivals by 5 lengths last start and the jockey will make sure he is quick to try and get over to the rail from that wide draw, and if he does, watch out!
Huon rounds out selections. Richard Litt knows how to prepare a horse for a Midway and he can certainly find a win here. Lloyd has had nothing but success on this horse as well, massive watch.
Selections: 13-1-5-6
Suggested Bet: Mad Darcey Each Way
Race 2 – 1900M Quayclean (Bm78)
We all know I love an import and Dasho Lennie fits that bill here. Won excellently first up in the country on a weekday at Sandown, sat quite a bit off the front and still flew past them to get the victory. Obviously that was a different kettle of fish, but up in trip and an improvement in fitness with JMac on, I think he can definitely get another win here.
Wymark is the big watch here. He has been beating up on his provincial rivals with pure arrogance. Don’t believe me? He is only coming off a 9.5 length win! He will dash right to the front and try and kick all the way as he has thus far this prep.
Dr Evil deserves to jump in class again here and I feel he is excellently placed with this being his pet distance and he has managed to draw well here. I think he can run over the top of them here, especially if the leaders go a bit too quick.
Sunlord drawn to do no work in trying to get up on the pace and is right down in the weights. Could just steal this one.
Selections: 2-8-3-12
Suggested Bet: Dasho Lennie Each Way
race 3 – 1200M Magic Night Stakes
Last chance for the girls to make it into the slipper here. Gotta be with Fly Fly. Form behind Switzerland and Manaal, it’s only a recipe for success in my opinion. As long as she doesn’t get too far back she is right in this and should be considered the horse to beat.
Castanya is another horse who comes here with form behind Switzerland, so she is certainly to be respected. Neasham will also be desperate for some Slipper representation after her other prospects went up in smoke, so expect plenty of intention to get the job done here.
Chateau Miraval would have to turn the tables on Fly Fly, but she’ll be sent out to lead and try and get another Waterhouse horse into the Slipper to join the 30 others. Serious threat.
Canara rounds out selections. A win would be a shock, however, a placing would be far from it.
Selections: 3-2-5-9
Suggested Bet: Fly Fly Win
Race 4 – 1200M Pago Pago Stakes
Last chance for the boys to get into the Slipper next week. Going to be boring and stick with the favourite here. Gatsby’s looks a class above the rest of this field. He was super smart in all of his trials into the lead up to a very smart debut. Can sit off the leaders pace, which you would think would be Anode and then he can run past them and stamp himself as a genuine Slipper smoky in my opinion.
As mentioned, Anode should lead and should lead with authority. Waterhouse will want as much representation in the Slipper as possible and she can certainly get one here with this horse. Hippo should jump him clean, give him a dig in the ribs, get him straight to the front and try and kick all the way down the straight.
King Of Rosseau is probably not a Slipper winner, but can he find his way into the race? It is certainly not impossible. He has the form of Fully Lit and should be up on the pace and will be really motoring going around the bend. Can he sustain the speed though? Hasn’t been able to under pressure yet, this is his test.
Coleman comes here to try and get in after being the latest in a long list of failed Blue Diamond favourites. Gets his chance to rectify it, but I think he could get outclassed once more.
Selections: 7-4-5-1
Suggested Bet: Gatsby’s Win (BEST BET)
Race 5 – 2000M James Squire Sky High Stakes
Just Fine to bounce back here. I know I know, he finished a long last when first up in the VE Stakes, but he can bounce back. That track was just awful and the stewards said there was something slightly off with him. Further, fitter, drier, maps to lead. He is the winner in my mind.
Lindermann had a much better run that day and actually snuck into the placings, which has led to him being put up as a short favourite for the bookies here. Couple this recent form with his love for Rosehill (Won the Rosehill Guineas over this track and trip as a 3YO), he is in a great position to finally get another win.
Would be surprised to see neither of these horses come out on top, but you also just gotta think that this is one of those races where a roughie will swoop and get up. Thus, I am happy to include Stockman and Explosive Jack in the selections. They’ll be running on pretty strongly and just might get their noses in front if their runs are timed right.
Selections: 4-3-5-2
Suggested Bet: Just Fine Win
Race 6 – 1100M Tattersalls Group Maurice Mccarten Stakes
Dashing Legend for me here. Joe Pride has really gotten the best out of this mare in my opinion, as every piece of work under him ahs been really solid. Yet to miss the placings at this race, yet to miss the placings when first up and has only ever missed the placings once when on a good track. Maps well to stalk the leaders and should be one of the strongest home. I am pretty confident she will at least place at solid odds.
Red Card is a deserved favourite here, as she managed to beat a couple of the horses she faces here in her last start, forcing them to have to turn the tables. Hippo is flying at the moment and should give her an absolute peach of a ride out in front and try to skip away around the corner with that inside draw.
Omni Man will have to turn the tables, but you can certainly take it to the bank that if he jumps clean, he will make the favourite work for it up front. Didn’t jump as well as he would have liked last start and got trapped without cover and was quite wide when doing so as well. Can bounce back.
Airman brings the Imperatriz form. But he finished 6 lengths back, is that really good form? Either way, G1 to G3 is still a drop and he should be respected as a threat.
Selections: 10-4-7-1
Suggested Bet: Dashing Legend Each Way
Race 7 – 1500M Chandon Phar Lap Stakes
Tutta La Vitta was huge last start in the Surround Stakes. No right running he way she did at the price of $100 so the market simply just undervalued her. Was super late last start and ran some excellent sectionals to nab 3rd place behind Tropical Squall who is a leading chance in the G1 race of the day. Just needs to not get trapped wide without cover from that shocking barrier and she can find her way into the finish again.
Mare Of Mt Buller is at big odds and I can see why, but also can’t see why at the same time. On one hand, all of her form is in Midweek company and she now has to jump to face some serious Group 1, 2 and 3 competitors. However, on the other hand, Waller horses always run well in this race and we know he is a Grand Final trainer, so she’ll be ready to rock and roll, otherwise she wouldn’t be here. With the arrogance she has put some fields away with she has displayed enough talent to warrant a solid chance here and I firmly believe she is overs.
Zardozi will likely need longer, as she did last start as well, however, she is a classy filly that wouldn’t surprise with a win despite this distance being far short of her best. Marquand should give her every chance and she will be running on late.
Makarena as favourite when she faded late in the Surround and Tutta La Vitta ran straight past her is a strange move by the market. I think she is a winning chance, but would have her marked a little higher than $4. Can win, but look for a better price in my opinion.
Selections: 12-15-11-14
Suggested Bet: Tutta La Vitta Each Way
Race 8 – 1500M G1 Coolmore Classic
Yonce sticks out to me as a huge value chance that the market has overlooked, just because she is a Melbourne horse that has different formlines to all of the girls. 7/10 in her career, 6/7 on a good track, 6/7 with John Allen on, always strong late. If the tempo suits, she can certainly run over the top late.
Zougotcha will be very hard to beat, however, I will admit that. But, history is against her when it comes to the weight. Not many winners have pulled the race off when carrying 57Kg or more. However, in saying that, Krone pulled it off only a couple of years ago. She seems to be back, Waller has had this race in mind for her for the last year you would think, she will be really dangerous late.
Vienna Princess was outstanding in the Spring and she deserves to be respected as a genuine chance to be winning a G1 race here. She closed off strongly in the Millie Fox Stakes, which is a race that has produced 2 wins since (Lady Laguna and Lekvarte) as well as 3 of the last 9 Coolmore Classic winners. So she has the form on paper, just needs to get a clean run to the line to be a threat.
Semena is flying and can 100% give Dylan Gibbons his 2nd Group 1 win here. She should grab the back of someone amongst the pack and use it to cart her around the corner before swinging into a gap and trying to let down. The only queries is she is yet to place at the track and yet to place at this distance.
Selections: 11-1-4-3
Suggested Bet: Yonce Each Way
Race 9 – 1500M Atc Foundation Ajax Stakes
Can’t go past Democracy Manifest. He was excellent last start despite the terrible leaders bias on the day that allowed Phearson to somehow win the Liverpool City Cup. He closed off as well as he could have and with an extra couple hundred metres, some added fitness and JMac back on him who has been his best jockey so far, I only see him running well.
Glory Daze is a good horse and I can see him winning multiple stakes races throughout his career. He was strong 1st up without winning and then won with ease, with 61kg on his back mind you. Drops a whopping 8kg here and is drawn well to stalk the leader. Strong chance in my opinion.
Welwal is back by the looks of things. I have been on this horse multiple times with so far negative results. The one time I jump off, he puts it all together and wins at big odds. If Waller can get him to repeat his efforts, it will be no surprise to see him charging into the money late.
Amor Victorious rarely finds himself outside of the money and probably should find himself there again here. Should be nice and quick out of the gates, taken right to the front and just needs to sustain the speed all the way down the straight. Has been able to do that so far, but jumps to a whole new class here.
Selections: 5-11-8-13
Suggested Bet: Democracy Manifest Each Way
Race 10 – 1400M Rosehill Bowling Club (Bm88)
Tavi Time might just win here, but he is far too short for me here.
I will go Gently Rolled instead for a bit of value i what should be hotly contested sprint to the finish. Been stepping up in grade and performing better with every run. Yet to put a foot wrong this prep, Zac Lloyd sticks and she should be super strong late and I would be surprised to see her finish out of the money.
Winchat had a crack at group racing last start and just found himself outclassed. Drops back to Benchmark grade here where he can shine once more. Is super quick and should be hard to run down if he gets to top gear.
Sweet Mercy is one of those horses that you just never know when the head is going to pop up. Four Pillars winner and the winner of a first up run last week at Warwick Farm. Should be strong late.
Selections: 9-7-6-11
Suggested Bet: Gently Rolled Each Way
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Mad Darcey
Race 2: Dasho Lennie
Race 3: Fly Fly
Race 4: Gatsby’s (BEST BET)
Race 5: Just Fine
Race 6: Dashing Legend
Race 7: Tutta La Vita
Race 8: Yonce
Race 9: Democracy Manifest
Race 10: Gently Rolled
Quaddie
Race 7: 2,5,11,12,14,15
Race 8: 1,2,3,4,11
Race 9: 5,8,11,12,13
Race 10: 6,7,9
$50 gets you 11%
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