Another close but no cigar sort of day for us last weekend. Plenty of horses that ran well, some that ran terribly and a couple that got up. WHY OH WHY DIDN’T I STICK WITH ZARDOZI?!?!? Ok, little freak out aside, we come to one of the best racing weekend’s of the calendar. Arguably the best racing card of the year, with 5 Group 1’s taking place, including the time-honoured Golden Slipper. Very keen to get stuck in.
Track Report: Track is currently a Soft 7 and the rail is out 2 metre the entire circuit. It was hard to make ground last week and I expect the same here. I reckon horses will want to be in the front half of the pack going around the bend to have the best chance of winning. They’ll also likely get off the fence as the day goes on. However, the Slipper seems to always be stuck on the rail, no matter the weather and track conditions, strange that.
Race 1 – 1500M Midway (BM72)
This race has a few of my old Midway favourites in it but no better than the race favourite in Wrathful. I am a big fan of the way this horse goes about it. He hasn’t really stepped wrong since his debut and has rarely been far off in his 7 career starts thus far. I’m honestly surprised to see him still in Midways after he has had some success in better races. Should sit just off them and rattle home strongly.
Elettrica is another one of my Midway favourites, that I honestly feel is a little hard done by to still be in this grade, as she is just so consistent and could arguable have much more wins on the board next to her name. Will burst through and show her hand late, if its wet, she’ll love it even more.
Tavs got a bit too far back to really fire an effective shot last start, and he certainly won’t be able to do the same here to be truly effective. But with a better run in transit, he is strong enough to run over the top of them here. Richard Litt is a solid trainer for these Midway grades and he deserves a win after a few near misses in recent times.
Kingston Charm absolutely sh*tting it in last start at $61 was seen coming by just about nobody. Stop lying, you didn’t tip him. Displayed clear ability to get the job done in this grade, so he is a massive watch to see if he can back it up with another strong run.
Selections: 3-1-7-16
Suggested Bet: Wrathful Win
Race 2 – 2400m Precise Air N E Manion Cup
This is an interesting race, as we get to see our first big name Import for the Autumn. Haggas hasn’t brought Dubai Honour this year, but he has brought a few good ones over, but how good are they? Post Impressionist doesn’t have a huge amount of ‘strong’ form around him, but he did run 8 lengths behind Deauville Legend once, is that enough? I am happy to find out. $3 could be slightly unders, but he should be winning.
So United is a severely underrated horse for the Waterhouse and Bott Camp. He always comes to the races full of running and he is almost always at each way odds, which if he wasn’t trying to beat a seasoned international import, I would be all over, and I don’t blame you if you are. He should take a commanding lead and if he skips away around the turn, he’ll be hard to catch.
Stockman is praying the rain strikes once more and we get an even soggier track than is expected. He isn’t the almighty G1 conqueror he once was and the reason he always ends up the top weight, but he usually pops his head up and puts in a solid run in these types of races.
Almania is coming off of a solid Canberra Cup win, where he beat a couple of his opponents here, so they’ll need to turn the tables on him. Only query is, he is usually no good beyond 2000. Has Kris Lees finally figured him out?
Selections: 4-7-2-5
Suggested Bet: Post Impressionist Win
Race 3 – 1900M Bisley Workwear Epona Stakes
Very open race here, with most of the top chaces drawn very wide. Osmose, however, is drawn perfectly. Was excellent when first up when narrowly missing behind Lekvarte. She should head right to the front and set the tempo, hopefully he can keep kicking and get up
Thalassophile was a bit flat last start, was it Waller second up syndrome? Or was she just no good? Willing to forgive, because she has proven herself time and time again in these filly and mare type races. Shocking barrier, but if JMac manages to get her over onto the back of someone early, she is within a strong chance of running over the top.
City Of Lights is the sister of Winx, so you know she is bred to get to this distance, so the fact she has never seen it doesn’t worry me. Jumped to Saturday grade for the first time last start and was really solid, closing off with some nice sectionals. Interested to see how she goes.
Little Mix was another one that was excellent when closing off strongly late in the piece last start. But that barrier is a betty crocker. She would have had my money if she didn’t draw the carpark, but has the turn of foot to find her way into the money.
Selections: 5-1-20-7
Suggested Bet: Osmose Win
Race 4 – 1200M Irresistible Pools Darby Munro Stakes
Backing Red Resistance in to bounce back here. Was fantastic first up considering he was a year between runs. Looked strong going around the bend and just tired late. He will take fitness from that Wider barrier doesn’t help, but he is lucky that there is little speed drawn on the inside, so he shouldn’t find it hard to get up on the pace and hopefully he holds on this time.
Brave Mead will be the one to watch late. The only way he doesn’t finish in the money in my opinion is if he manages to miss the kick and end up in a bunch of traffic. He has only ever missed the money once and that was on a bottomless track, which we won’t, touch wood, be getting this weekend. Shinn sticks and should stalk the pace and be super strong late.
Schwarz showed some strong signs of talent in his debut prep in the Spring, which was capped off with a strong win at Flemington. Has been in the paddock since waiting for this race to kick off a late Autumn assault on the 3YO stakes races I assume. Trials have been good, JMac booked, camp is confident, you would expect him to run well.
Don Corleone is a strange strange horse and I have managed to get sucked in again here, will I regret it? Maybe. He failed to do much of anything first up, but can be forgiven due to a medical scare. His trial form reads that he beat Think About It and that is good enough form to be respecting him here despite the price.
Selections: 3-2-6-7
Suggested Bet: Red Resistance Each Way
Race 5: 2000M G1 Ranvet Stakes
Out of all the boom imports to hit Australian shores this carnival, Via Sastina is supposed to be one of the best, if not the best. She eats up this distance, is Ascot placed, can get the job done in all conditions and gets JMac. You’d hope she would be running well based on her pricetag.
Buckaroo was solid without threatening too much when running first up. He has always shown signs of talent, but he can’t just seem to repeat his European exploits Down Under. He has been kept on ice for this race, which shows strong intent to get the job done and he gets one of the world’s best jockeys. He should be running well here.
Think It Over my oh my the old boy just keeps on kicking doesn’t he? Knocked off Fangirl in the VE Stakes in arrogant fashion with a superb 10/10 ride from Nash Rawiller and they’ll be looking to knock off another boom Waller mare here. Drawn well, gets to his pet distance and he usually has success at this track, keen to see if he can keep his momentum going.
Place Du Carrousel was also bought for Waller for a stack of money – over 6 million smackaroos! She needs it to be wet, considering she has always excelled with her toe in the ground and can easily provide a bit of X-Factor here.
Selections: 6-3-1-7
Suggested Bet: Via Sastina Win
Race 6 – 2000M G1 Sky Racing Rosehill Guineas
Immediacy just looks over the odds to me. Couldn’t be more impressive in all 3 starts to date, which have all been winners. He absolutely spanked the competition last start over 1800m, albeit, a much easier field. It will be tricky from the widest barrier, but he is a solid each way play.
Tom Kitten was hard done by in the Randwick Guineas. He is still looking for a whole to dart through and get out. Those who backed him are probably still crying into their 2-minute noodles. He finally, I repeat, FINALLY, gets back out to his preferred distance and is drawn perfectly to get a good spot amongst the pack and hopefully gets a clear run to the line late.
Riff Rocket was absolutely phenomenal first up, looked like a world beater, and then managed to find a flat spot when second up. Second up syndrome? I would think so. He has proven to be far too good in the past not to be bouncing back here. An unplaced run would be a genuine shock.
Cafe Millennium is perhaps the biggest money muncher of the 3YO class. Every few runs he puts in a HUGE swooping effort that screams back me next start and then proceeds to run dead last. Will he do it again here? Likely, yes. But his run was too good not to put him the selections. Do you see the toxic cycle he puts us in?!
Selections: 7-4-2-3
Suggested Bet: Immediacy Each Way
Race 7 – 1500M G1 George Ryder Stakes
Mighty Ulysses has me intrigued. Spoken personally to Annabel Neasham and she said she bought this horse for specifically the Cox Plate and if he is going to be good enough for that race, he needs to be showing a spark here. Trials have been plain, but he was never really asked for anything. Well drawn, gets Marquand, who jumped off Pericles and Golden Mile to get on this horse and at a whopping price, I am willing to find out if he is mice or man.
Think About It is unders for mine, considering his first up blunder and his horrendous barrier, seriously, if he manages to win from that barrier, he is a deadset super hero. Sounds like I don’t think he can win right? If he was any other horse, probably, but he has proven to be an uber reliable, respond when the chips are down type of horse who can be backed under these circumstances. Would love to see a larger price considering though.
New Energy is a horse that I think has a bright future in Australia. His first up run was phenomenal all things considering, he made a stack of ground and ran some of the fastest sectionals of the day on a track that was quicksand for backmarkers. I blackbooked him and vowed to back him next start. The he drew barrier 16 and I cried a little inside. I reckon he is worth a tiny each way speck, but definitely follow him going forward.
Militarize is an interesting one. I feel like he would have been a moral in the Guineas, yet he lines up here. Clearly Waller sees something we don’t. He will be ready to peak, he’s well drawn and has a blinding turn of foot when asked for it. Big chance.
Selections: 10-1-11-16
Suggested Bet: Mighty Ulysses Each Way
Race 8 – 1200M G1 Golden Slipper
I have settled on Switzerland. He comes here undefeated, coming off two really smart lead up runs, including the win in the Todman, which is always a strong form race for the Slipper. He gets JMac and a perfect barrier to do whatever the camp want him to do. He should get onto someones back in transit, break clear of the pack late and can easily chase down whoever has their head in front late. I am confident he will be in the finish.
Storm Boy is obviously the other big chance in the race. What hasn’t been said about him already? I have my doubts, but maybe I am just cynical. I think for him it comes down to the jump. If he jumps clean and gets his prime spot on the fence, he’s golden. If he is sluggish and ends up in traffic, game over.
Prost is an underrated knock out chance in my mind. This horse only finishes a length and a half off of Storm Boy, running better sectionals than him on the day as well and has arguably the most in form 2YO jockey this season on his back, yet he is $40+ and Storm Boy is almost even money. Make it make sense. Seriously Seriously overs here. Best Roughie in the race by a mile.
Shangri La Express has been completely missed by the market. Drawn perfectly, comes out of the Todman, and despite having to turn the tables on Switzerland, he is yet to do anything wrong in his career and he has proven to be quite tough so far, so I can certainly see him upsetting the market at huge odds.
Selections: 7-1-12-3
Suggested Bet: Switzerland Win, Shangri La Express Place, Prost Place, Straight Charge Place and a Trifecta with all of the Waterhouse runners
Race 9 – 1100M G1 The Galaxy
Ozzmosis. That is all. No in all seriousness, he is no longer the sure thing I thought he would be when he drew barrier 13, but am I still confident he wins? Of course I am. He is well in at the weights, his trial work has been super slick, he has the speed to overcome th wide draw and is just super gutsy. Still confident the big boy gets it done!
Private Eye is overs here. Despite his lacklustre run last start and his poor barrier, he is the class horse of the field. So $10+ is a silly price and is quite honestly the only other bet I would want apart from Ozzmosis.
Sunshine In Paris deserved to be in the Everest, but alas an injury struck her down. She is back now and I am excited to see what she can do. She is a Sheraco winner and a Surround Stakes winner, but can she tackle the boys? We find out here.
Passive Aggressive seems to always get undervalued by the market. Considering the scalps she got last start you would think she wouldn’t be at such big odds again. If it is still Soft by Galaxy time, she could be the biggest danger of the lot.
Selections: 13-1-11-10
Suggested Bet: Ozzmosis Win (BEST BET)
Race 10 – 1200M Tab Birthday Card Stakes
Quite the open race to finish off here, many many chances here. So, I may as well go for some value here and I spot myself another import and an import trained by Joe Pride no less, you never see that. Sounds Of Heaven has some solid form in Europe and has proven himself first up before. Usually likes to get over a mile, but I wouldn’t mind seeing him make his way into the money and make me a lot of it.
Tintookie has drawn shocking, but if anyone can win from there, it’s her. She’s super honest, gutsy and always puts her foot forward, and last start, she stood head and shoulders above the rest in her biggest test to date. Deserves all the respect in the world.
Tashi has been the surprise packet of the benchmark sprinters so far this Autumn and she deserves a crack at this type of grade and deserves to be well respected in the market. She’s got great sustained speed down the straight and can fly late if she’s got a back to follow.
Olentia is always a good looker on paper, but I would rather have her go around without my money, she always seems to come up second best.
Selections: 7-5-11-3
Suggested Bet: Sounds Of Heaven Each Way
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Wrathful
Race 2: Post Impressionist
Race 3: Osmose
Race 4: Red Resistance
Race 5: Via Sastina
Race 6: Immediacy
Race 7: Mighty Ulysses
Race 8: Switzerland
Race 9: Ozzmosis (BEST BET)
Race 10: Sounds Of Heaven
Quaddie
Race 7: 1,3,10,11,15,16,17,18
Race 8: 1, 7
Race 9: 1, 11, 13
Race 10: 3,4,5,7,11
$50 gets you 20%
SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT. THINK ABOUT WHAT YOU COULD BE BUYING INSTEAD.