All right, legends, this will be the first of many Saturday rundowns here by yours truly, as each week I will run down the metropolitan Sydney horse racing meet race-by-race/ This weekend we head to Rosehill gardens, my local track, so hopefully, I am able to snag a few winners to kick off the first Saturday of the year.
Track Report: The weather is currently forecast for rain, so I have done my form for a track in the Soft Range and at the time of writing, the track is rated Soft 7. The rail is in the true position for the entire circuit which means they should expect some fair racing conditions with leaders and backmarkers both getting a chance to run their best.
Race 1 – 1200M Tab Highway (C3)
The Highways and Midways are typically the hardest races on the card to pick and this edition of the Highway is certainly no different with a wide-open field and market.
I am going to have a massive throw at the stumps and go with Vilified here. I black-booked this horse a while ago due to its blistering turn-of-foot capabilities when asked of it and I think he has found a winnable race here. Last start finished 2 lengths off them in a Highway after badly missing the start, but the run to the line was excellent. Gets an extra 100m now and with a clean jump and some cover, he can run over the top of them in the straight and at huge odds as well.
Proverbial is building towards a win at this grade as she has never finished very far from the finish in the handful of times she’s raced in a Highway, most recently she finished a close 2nd in the same race Vilified comes out of. Dyl Gibbons on board to get weight off the back, I can’t imagine her not finishing in the first half of the field.
Ticket To Anywhere reads as a KO chance with his best work coming on dampened tracks and Pokerjack is definitely a chance at the top weight, with McLucas on board to get the weight down to 57.5kg. She is flying as a jockey in these sorts of races and the drop in grade will help, as the horse has already been here done that, winning 2 Highways before, so don’t dismiss the huge odds.
Selections: 9-4-5-1
Suggested Bet: Villified Each Way all day at double-figure odds
Race 2 – 1500m Chandon (Bm72)
Very hard to split the top of the market here, but I am going to side with Green Shadows over Semena. The reason is I love the form of Kanazawa, who Green Shadows almost beat last start, but just couldn’t quite nab him. Easier field, up in distance, stronger fitness levels now, he only runs well in my opinion. The same can be said for Semena as the Maher and Eustace girl has never run a bad race and will be dangerous with the bottom weight if she has a clear lead going round the bend.
Wineglass Bay is a massive danger, usually, I would be all over the Waller UK import first up, as it is one of my favourite profiles in a horse. The trial was solid, as was the Flemington jump out, but I can’t be convinced until I see him run. I am very keen to see how he goes though.
Danish Prince rounds out the selections, as I just love the way he goes about his business. Does best work in the wet and at this distance, he will certainly have a lot to say and will likely make Semena work her hardest up front to challenge for the lead.
Selections: 5-12-8-1
Suggested Bet: Green Shadows Win
Race 3 – 1100M Kia Ora Farnan (Bm72)
I am all over 2 horses here True Crime and Passeggiata.
I backed Passeggiata on debut and she smashed them, marking her territory as a pure Saturday class horse. She seems to have a bright future, especially with an owner like Ozzie Kheir. She should jump, lead, kick and be at the front of the pack for a long way. She looked like she had an engine under her in that debut win, so I think the distance will be no issue, she’ll finish in the quinella if not win.
Who completes that quinella? Well, I think True Crime has to be a serious contender. She’s a swimmer. She cut her teeth in the swamps that were the Sydney Winter racing carnival last year, just about every week was a Heavy 10 thanks to El Nina and she excelled in the condition, unlike most others. He can be right on the favourite’s tail and be just enough of a pest to get his nose in front.
Narito and The Great Houdini are the two others that I can potentially entertain, but I’ll be keeping them just to round out exotics.
Selections: 11-4-2-6
Suggested Bet: Passeggiata Win and A 11,4 Boxed Quinella
Race 4 – 1400M Midway (Bm72)
As I said before, Midways are always tricky. Usually, I don’t like going the favourite in a Midway, but Excelladus just reads as the winner here. Last few starts he has run behind King Ratel, Estadio Mestalla and Astero all without winning and I feel as though he gets it here. Back to 1400 is a big tick for me as last start he just couldn’t run out a strong mile, plus his best work comes on rain-affected tracks so I am happy to be with him.
Byron, Buff and Bluster and Divine Breath all narrowly fill out the rest of the selections. All 3 are good in the wet and have proved their merit in this sort of grade before so they’ll definitely have a strong hand to play come to the finish.
Selections: 2-1-9-6
Suggested Bet: Excelladus Win
race 5 – 1500M Tab (Bm78)
Do I dare touch Frumos? She has burnt me so many times before, so no, I won’t be touching her, if she wins, she can do it without my money.
I’ll go with Ausbred Flirt instead who has been the measure of consistency this prep with a 5th, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 2nd to her name so far, all of which have been in strong competition. Was only narrowly beaten by the talented Estadio Mestalla last start and they gapped the rest, I think he can jump, lead, kick, win.
Festival Dancer will also be towards the front going around the bend and with a patient steer from her longtime jockey Dyl Gibbons she could definitely win here, especially with the drop in grade.
Then comes Frumos and Saigon to round out the numbers.
Selections: 5-1-4-3
Suggested Bet: Ausbred Flirt Win
Race 6 – 1400M Furphy (Bm88)
Vreneli is a clear favourite here after it had a lead all the way victory last start at this track and could honestly do the same thing here on Saturday. Maps to get a very soft lead here as well and with clean air he could definitely go all the way again, but 1400m is a slight query. That is why I will side with Bold Mac here.
Bold Mac didn’t really fire towards the end of his prep back in the winter, but he was just simply outclassed by the likes of Casino Kid, Kiss The Bride and Niffler. This is a much easier field to contend with and he can go in the wet and has won first-up over this distance before so I see no reason why he won’t be in the finish unless he is stuck on the post in traffic.
Cuban Royale is a knockout hope and Raging Bull is a class way above these, but it is a barrier trial for him, a place chance only, hence why you can’t leave him out of your exotics.
Selections: 9-8-5-2
Suggested Bet: Bold Mac Each Way
Race 7 – 2000M Schweppes January Cup
The main event race of the day and by far the hardest to settle on a winner. I have settled on the bottom-weight duo of Global Ausbred and Mission Phoenix being the two main dangers in my eyes. They were both phenomenal without winning their respective last starts and I think with clear lanes to the line they will be really strong in the late game and could knock off the favourite.
Speaking of the favourite Military Mission is a horse that can win without my money on, I think there is much better value in this race.
Such as Aleas. The Waller import has never run a completely terrible race and always seems to find itself outclassed. Finds a very winnable race here and with the blinkers on I think he will be the one to watch late if he settles closer to the leading pack.
Bonny Ezra rounds out the selections due to his constant consistency at the grade, track, distance and conditions.
Selections: 12-13-5-3
Suggested Bet: Global Asubred Win, as well as a 3, 4, 5, 9, 10,12, 13 Boxed First 4
Race 8 – 1500M Rosehill Bowling Club (Bm78)
Estadio Mestalla has to be the ‘good thing’ of the card right? Super talented, the only failed run of the career had plenty of excuses and he proved that last start by winning roughly over the 1600m. You would think the only thing that stops him is if he doesn’t like the wet, as he has never seen it. But I am happy to take him on.
Very curious about Tip Of The Spear the Annabel Neasham import. She knows how to pick a good import and I wouldn’t be shocked if this horse came out and upset the field, so keep a close eye on it.
Star Sparks and Savoury round out the exotics as KO chances as well.
Selections: 3-8-1-7
Suggested Bet: Estadio Mestalla Win (Best Bet) and Tip Of The Spear Place
Race 9 – 1800M Cleanaway (Bm78)
Mahagoni is a very talented horse for the Benchmark level. Has form around Jojo Was A Man, Waterford, Nugget and Democracy Manifest, all of whom won after this horse ran up the backside of it. Crazy to think this horse is each way odds, I think he’ll be in the finish for sure. Loves the wet and the track, only query is the 1800m distance, if he runs it out, he wins.
Logan Street Lion, Naval Seal and Worthily round out the exotics
Selections: 4-1-17-2
Suggested Bet: Mahagoni Each Way
Race 10 – 1200M Fujitsu General (Bm88)
Pizzaro and Kalino share the top of the market and they’re incredibly hard to split and I think they probably gap the rest of the field with Niffler coming down behind them.
Pizzaro never runs a bad race and that won’t stop here I feel. He should jump and grab the leader’s tail and then run straight past them in the straight and hopefully finish the day off with a win for us. Kalino should run very similarly and that’s why I feel they could potentially gap this field.
Niffler and Van Giz provide strong knockout options and should round out the trifecta and first four.
Selections: 9-7-5-12
Suggested Bet: Pizzaro Win, 7,9 Quinella and 5, 7, 9, 12 Boxed Trifecta
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Vilified
Race 2: Green Shadows
Race 3: Passeggiatta
Race 4: Excelladus
Race 5: Ausbred Flirt
Race 6: Bold Mac
Race 7: Global Ausbred
Race 8: Estadio Mestalla (Best Bet)
Race 9: Mahagoni
Race 10: Pizzaro
Quaddie
Race 7: 3, 5, 10, 12, 13
Race 8: 1, 3, 7, 8
Race 9: 1, 2, 4, 10, 17
Race 10: 7, 9
$50 gets you 25%