G’day legends. We are back again for the round 7 AFL Betting preview! Last week wasn’t ideal as we got a few set-ups of games wrong which can cost you cash in this caper. We have gone back to work and studied harder than ever this week and hopefully, we can get back in the green. Let’s get into it!
ST KILDA VS PORT ADELAIDE – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MARVEL STADIUM
I don’t think there is any value H2H for either team here but the line bet has to be UNDER TOTAL GAME POINTS (-156.5) – $1.88. The Power are without Todd Marshall and the Saints under Ross Lyon don’t put up big scores. I am confident this will be a low-scoring and contest affair all night. I do like a few prop bets though.
CALLUM WILKIE 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.90
I think with the absence of Marshall Dougal Howard and Josh Battle will play on Charlie Dixon and Jeremy Finlayson which should allow Wilkie to be that intercepting defender which will see him find plenty of the ball. He has gone over twenty disposals in half his games this season and missed narrowly in two others when recoding seventeen and nineteen disposals. I think he will find plenty of the ball tomorrow night and anything over $2.50 was always going to be a bet. This price represents value.
OLLIE WINES 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.70
Should be closer to $1.40 and is a brilliant anchor in your multis. In his last three games against the Saints Wines has recorded twenty-seven, thirty-seven, and thirty-six disposals and he has beat this mark in his last two games this season when given more midfield time. Against a hard-bodied and seasoned midfield in Seb Ross, Jack Steele, and Brad Crouch Ken Hinkley will put his trust in his Brownlow Medallist to fight the fight in the contest and this should mean he records at least twenty-five disposals.
ROWAN MARSHALL ANYTIME GOALSCORER – $2.20
I thought anything north of $1.80 needed to be a bet and saw $2.20 and latched on. In his last two games against Port Adelaide Marshall has had five scoring shots for three goals and he gets a very good matchup in this game against the inexperienced Brynn Teakle who is playing just his fourth game. I think he will drift forward at times and be very hard to stop from marking in the Saints’ forward fifty.
BRISBANE VS FREMANTLE – SATURDAY 1.45PM – GABBA
I think the bet is BRISBANE 40+ – $2 here. This Fremantle outfit is pretty poor and the Lions at the Gabba love putting big margins on average teams. There is no area on the ground where I can see the Dockers winning which makes me think it is going to be a big margin in the Lions’ favour. JOE DANIHER 3+ GOALS – $2.50 AND 4+ GOALS – $5 looks like the only other bet in this game. The Dockers have conceded goals to every good forward they have played against this season and Daniher is having a terrific season kicking thirteen goals from the opening six games. He will be too big and too strong for the Fremantle defence.
SYDNEY VS GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY – SATURDAY 2.10PM – SCG
Pretty keen to invest in this game. I think OVER TOTAL GAME POINTS (+149.5) is the bet here. Both defences are undermanned and both forward lines have plenty of talented goal-kickers which generally leads to a high-scoring game, even in the wet. GWS H2H – $4 is also the other bet. Sydney’s form has been patchy all year and even with a few soldiers back their defence looks very weak and their midfield isn’t doing enough in the contest which is leading to them conceding scores. I like a few prop bets.
ERROL GULDEN 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.60/25+ DISPOSALS – $3
I think Callum Mills will play in defence like he did last week which will mean a few others have to pick up the slack around the ground and in the midfield and I think Gulden will be the man. He has hit twenty disposals in four out of six games this season and went over twenty-five twice. With more midfield minutes expected, I think he hits both of these. It was only last year that Gulden had thirty-three disposals and kicked two goals against what was probably a better team.
ISAAC HEENEY 2+ GOALS – $2.20/3+ – $5
He is playing majority forward fifty this year is Heeney and even though he hasn’t been in the best of form he is still getting shots on goal. He has had two shots on goal in four out of six games this season and in his last two games against the Giants, he has kicked three goals in each. The Giants’ defence will have their hands full trying to stop the likes of Lance Franklin, Tom Papley, and Logan McDonald and I think Heeney might be the one that slips through the cracks and kicks a few goals. He plays well in the wet if the rain does arrive.
HARRY HIMMELBERG 2+ GOALS – $3/3+ GOALS – $8/4+ GOALS – $29
Himmelberg has been in good form over the last three weeks having eleven scoring shots for six goals against some good teams in Essendon and Brisbane. Tom McCartin comes back in but will play on Jesse Hogan which allows Himmelberg to get a mismatch on either Nick Blakey or Callum Mills. If Blakey plays on him, Himmelberg benefits because I don’t think Blakey is a proper lockdown defender at all and if Mills plays on him, he is giving away 8cm and 8kgs. If they get enough ball inside fifty Himmelberg should be able to kick a small bag.
TOBY GREENE 3+ GOALS – $3.80/4+ GOALS – $9
I was surprised to see Greene at this price. In his last two games against Sydney, he has had twelve scoring shots and it has only been inaccuracy that has cost him kicking some big bags. He has kicked sixteen goals so far this season and has kicked over three goals on three occasions. On the law of averages, he should be around $2 to kick three goals and I think the bookmakers have been sucked in by the forecasted wet weather. He can do it both in the wet and in the dry. He’s a superstar.
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS HAWTHORN – SATURDAY 4.35PM – MARVEL STADIUM
There is no value in the H2H or line betting at all in this game. I think the Bulldogs will win but at $1.19 there is no value and Hawthorn could easily get within five goals so the line market represents no value either. Prop betting is the way to go here.
JAMARRA UGLE-HAGAN 2+ GOALS – $1.95/3+ GOALS – $4
I think the Hawks will put plenty of work into Aaron Naughton which will allow Ugle-Hagan and Lobb to break loose. James Sicily will likely play on Ugle-Hagan but he will want to peel off and intercept and whilst he is trying to do that, I think Ugle-Hagan is too smart of a footballer and will find pockets of space so that he can get shots on goal. He has had two or more scoring shots in five out of six games this season and he generally kicks straighter under the roof. He represents value here.
RORY LOBB 2+ GOALS – $2.30/3+ GOALS – $5/4+ GOALS – $13
I think Lobb might benefit from the Hawks’ undersized defence. If Frost and Sicily go to Naughton and Ugle-Hagan as expected I am not sure who plays on Lobb. If it is the resting ruckman, he can get them with forward craft and if it is an undersized defender, he should be able to get them with size and strength. He has had two or more scoring shots in four of his five games this season and I think he should be closer to $1.60 for 2+ considering he is playing a team that concedes bags to key forwards. He is very good value in this market.
ADAM TRELOAR 30+ DISPOSALS – $1.80
Treloar has been terrific this season and with the absence of Tom Liberatore in the midfield he will spend even more time throughout the middle of the ground which will help him hit this mark which he has hit three times out of five this season. His record at Marvel is outstanding and I think the Hawks will be more occupied with stopping Bontempelli, Smith, and Macrae which should see him get some easy ball as well.
TIM ENGLISH 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.80
English has hit this mark in five out of six games this season and he has done it against some of the best ruckmen in the competition in Max Gawn, Rowan Marshall, Toby Nankervis, and Sean Darcy. He comes up against an inexperienced combination of Ned Reeves and Max Ramsden in this game and one would think he will find plenty of ball around the ground. I think he covers this line with ease the big man.
MELBOURNE VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 7.25PM – MCG
This is the definition of a “just watch it” game. Melbourne hasn’t been overly impressive in recent weeks and at $1.08 are absolutely no value I don’t trust North not to falter late and give up plenty of goals so the line margin for the Kangaroos represents no value either. The goal scorer markets for the Demons are skinny as are the disposal markets. Hopefully, it’s a good game to watch.
WEST COAST VS CARLTON – SATURDAY 7.30PM – OPTUS STADIUM
The temptation of backing the Eagles at the line was there on their home deck but my better judgment swayed me away from that. I think prop bets are the way to go here.
CHARLIE CURNOW 4+ GOALS – $2.20
Curnow is in rare form at this point of the season, kicking twenty-one goals from six games. The Eagles are going in without a recognised key defender outside of Tom Barrass who will have to play on Harry McKay due to his height. If Josh Rotham is the match-up, I fear for the Eagles if the Blues can get some speed on the ball and get Curnow some 1v1 opportunities. He should be kicking a bag.
JAYDEN HUNT 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.20
The Blues don’t have much leg speed (especially in their forward half and midfield) and I think Hunt will find plenty of the footy based on that. Hunt has hit this mark in three out of six games this season and has gone close on two other occasions when recording nineteen and seventeen disposals. He will find space due to burning the Blues on the spread both ways with his speed and I expected him to be shorter than $2.20.
ESSENDON VS GEELONG – SUNDAY 1.10PM – MCG
I think there are two easy bets to have here. TOTAL GAME POINTS OVER (+172.5) is looking likely considering both these teams score heavily and ESSENDON H2H – $2.80 looks like the other bet. Their performance on Anzac Day was a good one and they beat the Demons the previous week which is very good form. Geelong have beaten up either weak or injury-depleted teams over the last three weeks and I am happy to risk them until they show me something against a good side. I like a few prop bets.
JAKE STRINGER 2+ GOALS – $2/3+ – $4/4+ – $11
He is going well at the moment Jake Stringer and he is the type of forward the Cats have struggled to contain this season. He has had sixteen scoring shots this season for only seven goals and I think he will get enough opportunities and a good match-up so he can kick a small bag here. He loves the MCG and I think he is due to have a big one. He kicked three goals against Geelong the last time he played them and the defence hasn’t changed very much since then.
ARCHIE PERKINS 2+ GOALS – $3.60/3+ GOALS – $11
Perkins has hit the scoreboard this season with nine goals from the opening six games. He has had two or more scoring shots in four out of six games this season and with Stringer and Langford being occupied by Kolodjashnij and Bews he might be the one to break loose forward of centre. Tom Stewart will want to be the interceptor but I think Perkins’ style of game won’t be affected by that. He will sneak forward and be able to hit the scoreboard here.
OLLIE HENRY 2+ GOALS – $1.90/3+ GOALS – $4
With the Essendon defence being occupied by the three-pronged forward threat of Cameron, Hawkins, and Rohan, Henry will get a mismatch with someone like Redman or Hind having to pick him up. He is too good in the air for both of them and he has had two or more scoring shots in five out of six games this season I think he can kick two or three again on Sunday.
RICHMOND VS GOLD COAST – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MARVEL STADIUM
I think the Tigers’ last few weeks have been solid without recording wins so I think the bet here is RICHMOND 40+ – $4. If the Tigers can break even in the middle of the ground (likely with Touk Miller out) their forwards should be able to put on a big score on the fast deck. I like a couple of prop bets.
NOAH CUMBERLAND 2+ GOALS – $1.70/3+ GOALS – $3.20/4+ GOALS – $7
He spends 80% of the time in the forward fifty and he has an incredible goal sense which should see him kicking at least two or three on Sunday. Cumberland has kicked six goals from four games this season and has had two or more scoring shots in three out of four games. The Suns struggle against these small and medium-type forwards and I think he might make a statement here and kick a bag.
DUSTIN MARTIN 2+ GOALS – $2/3+ GOALS – $4.50/4+ GOALS – $11
He was nearly back to his best last week the champ. He has only kicked four goals from five games this season but he just looked back to his best movement-wise last week and he kicked 1.3 to go along with twenty-five disposals. Forward of centre they just don’t have a match-up for him with the Suns and I think he and Cumberland could both kick three or four and drag the Tigers to a much-needed win.
ADELAIDE VS COLLINGWOOD – SUNDAY 4.40PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
I like ADELAIDE H2H – $2.40 here. Aside from last week against Hawthorn, they had been playing brilliant footy, especially at home. They get the Magpies off a five-day break and I think their key forwards might prove troublesome for the Collingwood defence. I like some of these in my prop bets.
RILEY THILTHORPE 2+ GOALS – $3.50/3+ GOALS – $10/4+ GOALS – $31
He can be inconsistent the big young man, but he has the capabilities of kicking bags and he gets a complete mismatch here. Either Nathan Murphy or Trey Ruscoe will play on him and they are giving him 9cm and either 7kgs or 12kgs in weight. The Crows’ game plan is to get it into their forward line with speed and if they do get him some 1v1 opportunities I think he can hit the scoreboard hard.
JOSH RACHELE 2+ GOALS – $2.70/3+ GOALS – $7
Rachele has kicked ten goals from six games this season and considering Murphy and Maynard will be occupied by Thilthorpe/Fogarty/Rankine I think this guy could get a favourable match-up on a defender who isn’t made for playing on a forward like this guy. He has had two scoring shots or more in five out of six games this season and I think he is made for the big stage and there isn’t much bigger than this. He could be the match-winner.
So, those are my bets for this weekend? What are your best bets?
Think About What You Could Be Buying Instead. Set A Deposit Limit.