We only got five tips right this week in what was a horror Sunday going 0/3 last week. It seems like an easier week of tipping and previewing games this week but as always, there are some very tight calls. Carlton and Brisbane on Friday night look to be the game of the round, Geelong Vs Adelaide should be high scoring, and the Power and the Bombers face off on Sunday in what should be a cracker. Let’s get into Round 8 of the AFL!
CARLTON VS BRISBANE – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MARVEL STADIUM
Both these teams sit in the top six after seven rounds and I think we will find out plenty about both team’s Premiership and finals aspirations on Friday night. These teams couldn’t have more opposing styles if they tried. Carlton like to control possession (rank second in disposals per game) and build their attack methodically which can also help their defence set-up (rank third in the least opposition points per game) from turnover whereas the Lions play a more chaotic style which evolves around winning the contest and getting it forward quickly into the likes of Daniher, Hipwood, Gunston, Cameron, and Bailey. They rank third in points per game and fifth in inside 50s due to this game style. Brisbane will need to replace two star players in Daniel Rich and Dayne Zorko whilst the Blues should welcome back Jesse Motlop with Josh Honey the likely omission.
WHERE CARLTON CAN WIN:
The Blues can win this through controlling possession and playing their style. In the Lions’ two losses this season against Port Adelaide and the Bulldogs, they were smashed in uncontested possession and they just couldn’t get their hands on the football. The Blues need to do this on Friday night. Get it in the hands of their good ball users in Docherty, Cerra, Saad, and Fisher more often than not and choose their moments of when to go quick and when to maintain possession much better than they have done in the last month. The other area they need to improve in is throughout the contest and in the clearance battle. The Blues rank thirteenth in clearances per game whilst the Lions rank first. If they allow the Lions to dominate the clearance battle, I don’t think the Blues’ defence will be able to constrain the potent Brisbane forward line. It’s a big night under the brightest of lights for the likes of Patrick Cripps, George Hewett, Adam Cerra, and Sam Walsh. Break even in the midfield and get it to Curnow and McKay enough and they are in it. Don’t, and it will be another long night for the Navy Blue faithful.
WHERE BRISBANE CAN WIN:
Do what you do best needs to be the Lions’ motto on Friday night. Lachie Neale is averaging nearly nine clearances a game in 2023 which is an enormous amount and the likes of Oscar McInerney, Josh Dunkley, and Will Ashcroft have come along for the ride. They rank first in clearances per game and they are playing a Carlton team who have looked dysfunctional at the centre bounces over the last month. If they can dominate the centre clearances, they will score from it. Lewis Young has been beaten numerous times over the last month and if the Blues continue the current plan of playing him against the opposition’s best forward, he will play on Joe Daniher who is in career-best form. The Lions also need to work well as a defensive unit to help Jackson Payne who likely gets the job on Charlie Curnow. Luckily for the Lions, the Blues’ small forwards aren’t overly dangerous which should allow the likes of Starcevich and Coleman to help in the air.
TIP: I think the Lions will win a close one. Brisbane by eight points.
RICHMOND VS WEST COAST – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MCG
It is a bottom-three clash at the MCG on a predicted cold and rainy Melbourne day. The Tigers have been more competitive than the Eagles this season but nevertheless have been horrible. Both teams have been crushed by injury in the early part of 2023 and luckily for the Tigers Premiership stars Jack Graham and Dion Prestia look likely to come back into the side.
WHERE RICHMOND CAN WIN:
The Tigers still have some champions (although underperforming) in this team and on paper they should be able to do enough to kick a winning score. Outside of Tom Barrass, the cupboard is bare for defenders who can actually lock down on a forward at the Eagles and the likes of Dustin Martin, Noah Cumberland, Shai Bolton, and Samson Ryan should be able to kick a winning score. The likes of Alex Witherden, Jamaine Jones, and Luke Foley matching up on the likes of Martin and Bolton is a horrible thought for Eagles fans and the fact that the Tigers are back to the MCG where they have played well this season (drew against Carlton, lost by five points to the Bulldogs, and three goals to the Demons) is also a big positive for the Tigers. Provided they can break even in the middle of the ground, the Tigers should be able to kick a winning score.
WHERE WEST COAST CAN WIN:
The Eagles can win this game by replicating what the Suns did last week. Provide pressure around the ball and don’t allow easy exits in the clearance and then spread from the contest when they have the ball. The Tigers midfield of Jacob Hopper, Tim Taranto, Dion Prestia, and Trent Cotchin are slow and the likes of Tim Kelly, Jayden Hunt, Jamaine Jones, and Jack Petrucelle need to risk getting scored against in order to break the lines and then create scoring opportunities themselves. Move the ball quickly and this Richmond defence which is out of sorts is susceptible to conceding contested marks and the likes of Oscar Allen and Jack Darling can provide that. Bring the right game plan and attitude and they will be in this for a long way.
TIP: Richmond by five goals. Surely the Tigers win this one.
GEELONG VS ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 2.10PM – GMHBA STADIUM
Both of these teams enter this game 4-3 and have won four out of their last five to cement themselves as finals contenders after a poor start to the season. The Crows lost in heartbreaking fashion against the Magpies last week and the Cats were too strong for a gallant Essendon team after blowing them away in the first quarter. There doesn’t look to be any obvious changes needed at the Crows whilst Jack Bowes and Sam De Koning will need to make way through injuries. Zac Tuohy should return after being a late withdrawal last week.
WHERE GEELONG CAN WIN:
GMHBA is a ground where the clearance battle is of ultra-importance due to the dynamics and shape of the ground (very narrow) and the Cats rank sixth in clearances per game this season whereas the Crows rank thirteenth and were absolutely smashed 47-25 last week against the Pies. Patrick Dangerfield has been excellent this season ranking first in centre clearances per game and seventh in total clearances and he is the man that needs to continue this form. Outside of him, and with the expectation Mark Blicavs goes back to help the defence, the clearance numbers really fall away. Tom Atkins is the Cats’ next-best clearance player and with Cameron Guthrie still likely to miss, the likes of Max Holmes and Tanner Bruhn need to pick up the slack and ensure they win the contested ball battle. Win the contest and the Cats dominant forward line led by Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins will kick a winning score.
WHERE ADELAIDE CAN WIN:
The Cats’ defence is now without their best defender in Sam De Koning and Jack Henry is still injured which can make them susceptible to the big key forwards that Adelaide have an abundance of in the form of Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty, and Riley Thilthorpe. The three-pronged forward pack have kicked thirty-five goals between them so far this season. The matchups Adelaide really needs to try and focus on are the likely matchups of Darcy Fogarty on Esava Ratugolea and Riley Thilthorpe on Jake Kolodjashnij who is giving away 9cm and 9kgs. The other area the Crows need to focus on is stopping Patrick Dangerfield’s dominance around the contest. They did a pretty good job on Nick Daicos last week which went a long way to them being as close as they were to the Pies and if they can quell Dangerfield’s influence around the ball, I think it will expose some of the lesser likes which means they will at least break even in the contest. The Crows have the most potent forward line in the league at their best and if they get enough ball in there, they can win this game.
TIP: Geelong in a tight one. Cats by fourteen points.
GOLD COAST VS MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 4.35PM – HERITAGE BANK STADIUM
The Suns come into this game searching for three wins in a row after wins against North Melbourne and Richmond in the last fortnight whilst the Demons come into this game sitting second on the ladder after winning four out of their last five games. The Suns might bring back Levi Casboult who was rested against the Tigers whilst the Demons will bring back Harrison Petty and Charlie Spargo if they pass concussion protocols.
HOW THE SUNS CAN WIN:
The Suns need to dominate around the ball and in the clearances to have any chance of winning this game. They rank second in clearances per game this season which has been led by Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell whilst the Demons are ranked twelfth. The Suns’ key forwards in Ben King, Mabior Chol, and Levi Casboult can contend in the air against the likes of May and Lever and if they can provide pressure in their own forward fifty and make it a scrap, they can keep themselves in this for a large part of the game. The game will be won and lost in the centre.
HOW THE DEMONS CAN WIN:
As long as they break even around the contest the Demons should be able to put on a big enough score to win this game. The Demons’ small forwards have been terrific this season with Bayley Fritsch, Kysaiah Pickett, and Kade Chandler combining for forty-one goals in the first seven rounds of the season. In the last month, the Suns have conceded sixteen goals against small forwards and the majority of those are not at the level that these Demon smalls are. If the big guys like Jacob Van Rooyen and Harrison Petty bring the ball to the ground, I think the smalls will combine for 10-12 goals which should be enough to get the Demons over the line.
TIP: Melbourne by five goals. It will be a comfortable win for the Demons.
GWS GIANTS VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – SATURDAY 7.30PM – MANUKA OVAL
The Giants have found some form in recent weeks and find themselves 3-4 after a last-gasp win against Sydney last week, whilst the Bulldogs have won four of their last five and find themselves inside the eight after losing their first two games of the season. The Dogs expect Tom Liberatore to return after missing last week due to concussion and the Giants will regain Callan Ward.
WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN:
I know that statistically the Dogs have been very sound defensively this season but I think stats can be deceiving at times. When you look at the key defenders at the Bulldogs in Alex Keath, Liam Jones, and Tim O’Brien only one word comes to mind and that is vulnerable. Tom Lynch had the Dogs on the ropes a month ago before getting injured early in the second term, they faced a Port Adelaide outfit who wanted a low-scoring game, and then Mitch Lewis kicked 1.4 last week and could have won the Hawks the game. Jesse Hogan is on track for a career-best season and Harry Himmelberg is a mercurial type who can win you a game in a quarter. They have combined for twenty-three goals this year and could easily kick seven or eight between them. Toby Greene loves playing the Bulldogs and has kicked eleven goals in his last two matches against them. I think he will beat either Taylor Duryea or Ed Richards so if the Giants can get enough ball forward, they can kick a winning score and win this game.
WHERE THE BULLDOGS CAN WIN:
The Bulldogs rank fourth in clearances per game this season and the Giants rank last and that could be the game in a nutshell. Marcus Bontempelli is having a tremendous season and the likes of Tom Liberatore and Adam Treloar have also been terrific in this area. If they can get on top in the middle I think the Dogs three-pronged forward duo of Aaron Naughton, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, and Rory Lobb can get the job done. Cody Weightman will also prove troublesome for the Giants considering his usual match-up in Nick Haynes will have to play on one of the talls considering the injury to Sam Taylor. If the Dogs can get some clearance and contested ball domination in the early part, I think that will be all she wrote. That is where the game will be won and lost.
TIP: The Bulldogs will win by fourteen points in a close and contested contest all night.
FREMANTLE VS HAWTHORN – SATURDAY 7.30PM – OPTUS STADIUM
Both Hawthorn and Fremantle sit in the bottom six at the beginning of round eight. Hawthorn are 1-6 compared to the Dockers 2-5 but it is the Hawks who have played better football in recent weeks. Matthew Johnson goes out of the team for the Dockers and Nathan Fyfe is expected to be available to play. Lloyd Meek and Connor McDonald made cases for recalls after being dropped last week by the Hawks as Luke Bruest will be rested.
WHERE FREMANTLE CAN WIN:
Using defence as your best form of attack can work at times and I think it will be the case here for the Dockers. Alex Pearce and Brennan Cox should be able to quell the influence of Mitch Lewis and Fergus Greene which could allow for the likes of Luke Ryan, Hayden Young, and Jordan Clark to intercept and rebound at will. With Luke Bruest going out of the team I am not sure where the forward pressure is coming from apart from Dylan Moore and I think it will make Fremantle’s ball movement look better than it is. They can strangle the Hawks going forward and make it near on impossible for them to kick a winning score and that is how they win this game.
WHERE HAWTHORN CAN WIN:
If Sam Frost and Josh Weedle can do a job on Jye Amiss and Luke Jackson it opens up the same opportunity for the Hawks as I was talking about with the Dockers. James Sicily is arguably the best intercept defender in the game and he also provides plenty of rebounds out of the defensive half. Add to this the likes of Blake Hardwick, Jarman Impey, and Karl Amon and the Hawks can also strangle the Dockers’ defence while countering at the right time. It will be a game that is won in each other’s forward fifties. Whoever takes their chances and defends the best will win as I think both midfields cancel each other out.
TIP: Fremantle by under a kick in a low-scoring affair. Last goal wins type of stuff here.
PORT ADELAIDE VS ESSENDON – SUNDAY 1.10PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide enter this contest 5-2 after winning their last four matches this season whereas the Bombers enter the contest 4-3 after two losses against Premiership contenders Collingwood and Geelong. Tom Jonas and Todd Marshall are expected to come back for the Power whilst Zach Reid and Jye Menzie look the obvious inclusions for the Bombers.
WHERE THE POWER CAN WIN:
The Power needs to get on top in the contest and in the clearance battle. They rank third in clearances per game this season whilst the Bombers rank eleventh. The Bombers copped a pasting in stoppage clearances last week and were beaten by Collingwood in this area the week before. The likes of Conor Rozee, Ollie Wines, Jason Horne-Francis, Willem Drew, Zak Butters, and Travis Boak can get on top in this area and they are a noticeably big and brilliant contested ball mix. If they can get on top in this area, I do not think the undersized and inexperienced Essendon defence can keep out the likes of Charlie Dixon, Todd Marshall, and Jeremy Finlayson from kicking a winning score.
WHERE THE BOMBERS CAN WIN:
The first port of call is to at least break even in the midfield and that is the most important part of the game the Bombers need to get right. If they do this, they can get it forward quickly and let the small forwards go to work by applying pressure and then hitting the scoreboard. The Bombers have plenty of these medium to small type forwards and they are headlined by Jake Stringer and Kyle Langford who have kicked twenty-three goals between them this season. The smaller types are a big danger for the Power. They have struggled against small forwards this season. Izak Rankine and Luke Pedlar combined for seven goals in the showdown, Isaac Heeney and Tom Papley combined for seven scoring shots but were inaccurate, and Cody Weightmann and Jai Culley both kicked four goals against them. If they get it in quick the likes of Stringer, Langford, Perkins, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Snelling, and Davey can kick a winning score.
TIP: Port Adelaide narrowly in a high-scoring affair. The Power by three goals.
COLLINGWOOD VS SYDNEY – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MCG
The Pies sit on top of the ladder entering round eight with only one loss to their name and the Swans have coughed and spluttered their way towards a 3-4 record in which they have lost four of their last five. Robbie Fox will return for the Swans as a much-needed shutdown defender with Dylan Stephens going out, and Mason Cox and Scott Pendlebury are likely to return to the Pies 23.
WHERE THE PIES CAN WIN:
The Pies are doing everything right and they just need to keep this amount of pressure up without the footy to be troublesome for any team they play against. They take calculated risks going into the corridor and it breaks teams’ structures and zones which makes it hard to defend against. They rank seventh in points per game and second in least points conceded per game which is right in the sweet spot for a Premiership contender. The Swans have had a lot of upheaval to their defence through injury and I think if the Pies can hit that corridor kick which opens up the whole ground that the Swans’ defence will not be able to stop the Collingwood smalls and goal-kicking midfielders from kicking a big score.
WHERE SYDNEY CAN WIN:
They just need to be better around the stoppages the Swans. They rank eleventh in clearances per game this season and to beat the Pies you need to be able to have control of the footy so they need to win it at the source and then kick it to the favourable matchups. Lance Franklin will likely get Nathan Murphy as his opponent and the champion kicked three goals last week and was nowhere near his best. If they can get him some 1v1 opportunities he is clearly the man to beat. The likes of Tom Papley and Isaac Heeney can also cause trouble for the Pies. Collingwood have struggled against the smaller type of forwards this season and it was only last week that Josh Rachele could have taken the game away from the Pies barring inaccuracy. The equation is simple. Win it at the source, bring it to ground and create scoring opportunities.
TIP: Collingwood by four goals. There will be some nervous moments for Pies fans but they will get over the line.
ST KILDA VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SUNDAY 4.40PM – MARVEL STADIUM
The Saints have been the surprise packet of 2023 and sit in the top four at the beginning of round eight whilst the Kangaroos have now lost five in a row and are coming off the back of a fifteen-goal loss last week. Luke Davies-Uniacke returns for the Kangaroos whilst the Saints will not make any changes.
WHERE THE SAINTS CAN WIN:
The Saints are the best defensive side in the competition at the moment and they will stick to their plan of strangling the North Melbourne attack whilst creating run and speed on the counter to score. The Port Adelaide forward line went at 55% inside fifty which was horrible for a Saints team that prides themselves on their defence and I think they will be back to their best this week. North Melbourne do not have the scoring options that Port Adelaide have and they do not have the goal-kicking midfielders that the Power have and I think that is the main ingredient needed to beat the Saints. Suffocate them on offence and run their young boys ragged with speed and stamina and the Saints should do enough to remain in the top four.
WHERE THE KANGAROOS CAN WIN:
The Kangaroos need to get back to what they were doing in the first month of the season and that is winning around the contest. They won the clearance battle by fifteen in the first two rounds and even on Easter Monday against the Blues they won it by eleven. In the last three weeks they have been beaten in this area and unfortunately for the Kangaroos, they do not have a defence that can match it with many teams forwards so when they are not on top around the contest which means controlling possession, they can get opened up. The Saints are ranked sixteenth in clearances per game this season and this is where the Kangaroos can win this game. Dominate the contest and get repeat inside fifties which will lead to scores.
TIP: Saints by five goals. I expect North Melbourne to play well in the first half but the Saints experience should get them over the line.
THOSE ARE MY TIPS THIS WEEK, WHO ARE YOU ON?