We had a brilliant round seven of AFL betting and ended up over 10U in front after some very nice goal-kicking bets got up. Round Eight looks a little harder at face value. Let’s get into it!
CARLTON VS BRISBANE – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MARVEL STADIUM
In terms of the handicap and line markets, I think the bet has to be for the TOTAL GAME POINTS OVER (+171.5) – $1.88 here. In their last two fixtures against each other, the overall score has comfortably passed 180 both times, they are playing on a fast deck under the roof and the Lions rank third for points per game and the Blues rank eighth. Seems like a good bet to kick off the weekend. I like a couple of prop bets.
JOSH DUNKLEY 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.75/30+ DISPOSALS – $3.40
He hasn’t played the Blues a whole lot in his career but in his second last game against them he recorded forty-one disposals and when he played them last year, he amassed twenty-six disposals when being played out of position. He has hit this mark in four out of seven games this season, he is playing a Carlton team who are a bit weak on the inside and concedes big numbers against inside midfielders, and he loves playing at Marvel Stadium. I’m backing him in to help Lachie Neale secure the Lions the win.
ERIC HIPWOOD 2+ GOALS – $2.10/3+ GOALS – $4.60/4+ GOALS – $12
Hipwood has kicked two and three goals in his last two matches against the Blues ad he has kicked two goals in each of his last four games this season and has combined for ten goals over the last month. Lewis Young has struggled against the good key forwards in recent weeks and with the way the Lions move the ball I don’t think that will change here. I think Hipwood vs Young is the match up and I think Hipwood can use his speed and agility to both beat him in the lead and in the air.
RICHMOND VS WEST COAST – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MCG
I think the obvious bet here is WEST COAST AT THE LINE (+42.5) – $1.90. They are expecting horrible weather in Melbourne on Saturday which will make it difficult to score to begin with and this Richmond team hasn’t scored eighty points for three weeks and didn’t get to fifty last week. I can’t see them winning this by over seven goals. I like a few prop bets.
GREG CLARK 15+ DISPOSALS – $1.60/20+ DISPOSALS – $4
Clark recorded twenty-four disposals in his only game against the Tigers and has hit the fifteen disposal mark in three of his four games this season and hasn’t been far away from twenty on two occasions when recording eighteen and nineteen disposals. Outside of Tim Kelly and the returning Dom Sheed, the Eagles have no inside midfielders in this side. Clark is a 195cm midfielder and he will spend a big chunk of the game in the midfield where he is facing a very poor Tigers midfield group.
JACOB HOPPER 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.20
I think he might be able to really get on top throughout the midfield with his good mate Tim Taranto. Hopper enjoys playing wet weather footy and you know he is going to spend essentially all game running through the midfield against an Eagles outfit that lacks any real good inside midfielder outside of Tim Kelly. In his last game against the Eagles, he recorded twenty-eight disposals and I think he can do that again here.
GEELONG VS ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 2.10PM – GMHBA STADIUM
I like ADELAIDE AT THE LINE (+29.5) – $1.90 here. They have only lost one game by more than five goals this season and realistically should be 6-1 if it was not for bad kicking. They face a Cats team missing Sam De Koning, Jack Henry, Cameron Guthrie, Tyson Stengle, and Jack Bowes. I think they’ll keep it to within five goals. I like a few prop bets.
PATRICK DANGERFIELD 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.90
The Geelong champion has been good to us this season and with Guthrie and Bowes missing they will expect him to shoulder the load more than anyone else in the midfield. Adelaide’s weakest area is around the contest and the clearances and I think he might get a bunch of clearances which would see him well on his way to beating this mark.
TOM ATKINS 20+ DISPOSALS – $3.20
I thought he was a big price and there is a clear edge here. Yes, he has only hit this mark twice this season but he has been close numerous times and I think he will have more midfield time in this game than at any other point in the season. I had him closer to $2 and think this is good value.
DARCY FOGARTY 2+ GOALS – $1.80/3+ GOALS – $3.40/4+ GOALS – $8
I think the tight confines of GMHBA will suit this bloke and he should be able to use his strength and football IQ against an inexperienced defender in Esava Ratugolea. He has kicked at least two in four out of his five games played this season and has kicked over three on three occasions. He should be able to hit the scoreboard and be the Crows’ focal point.
GOLD COAST VS MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 4.35PM – HERITAGE BANK STADIUM
There is just no value at all in this market. Melbourne should win but aside from last week, they haven’t been going overly well. Gold Coast are just untrustworthy from a betting perspective and the prop bets have narrowed down on the Suns inside midfielders and the Demons runners. Leave this one alone and hope for a decent game if you are tuning in.
GWS GIANTS VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – SATURDAY 7.30PM – MANUKA OVAL
I do not think there is any value in the line or handicap markets in this game. I think the Bulldogs will win but only narrowly so the odds on offer represent no value. I like the prop betting market.
JESSE HOGAN 2+ GOALS – $1.80/3+ GOALS – $3.70/4+ GOALS – $8
He has kicked three and two goals in his last two games against the Dogs and I think he is in career-best form entering this game. He has hit this mark in six of his seven games this season and that includes inaccurate kicking of 3.4 and 2.4 to go along with that. He can get Alex Keath on the lead in this game and if the Giants can get some speed on the ball, I can see him hitting the scoreboard in a big way.
ADAM TRELOAR 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.10
He was not at his best last week but he has been brilliant this season and this Giants midfield is poor around the contest which should see him finding plenty of the footy. He has hit this mark in half his games this season and is playing a poor clearance and contested ball team so even money represents value here.
MARCUS BONTEMPELLI 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.80
The bookies keep putting up a decent price for the Bont and we keep taking it. He hit this mark the last two times he played the Giants and has hit this mark in four out of seven games this season. I will reiterate that the Giants are a poor contested ball team and that this guy averages eight clearances a game. He should be able to find enough of the footy on the inside and they like the ball in his hands.
FREMANTLE VS HAWTHORN – SATURDAY 7.30PM – OPTUS STADIUM
I think HAWTHORN AT THE LINE (+19.5) – $1.90 seems like the bet. They have not lost by this amount in either of their last two trips to Western Australia against the Dockers and I would argue that they are going better than they were then and the Dockers are going worse. I like a few prop bets too.
JORDAN CLARK 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.90/25+ DISPOSALS – $5
He had twenty-five the last time he played the Hawks at this ground and I think it might be a game where rebound and intercept defenders find plenty of the ball. He has hit this mark in three out of four games this season and has gone close in two other games. This Hawthorn team will not provide too much forward pressure so I think he will relish the conditions of this game.
HAYDEN YOUNG 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.50/30+ DISPOSALS – $5
He has not had the best start to the season but he was back to his best against the Lions when recording thirty-three disposals last week. The Dockers love getting it into his hands and like I said previously I think rebound and intercept defenders will find plenty of the footy in this game. He has no direct opponent and he will be given free rein to provide attack from defence which he loves doing.
JAMES SICILY 25+ DISPOSALS – $2
I think the lack of dangerous Fremantle key forwards will allow Sicily to dominate through intercepting and he will get a few cheap disposals like all defenders do in the back half. He has hit this mark in five out of seven games this season and I think $2 is a clear edge in this market.
CHAD WINGARD 2+ GOALS – $4/3+ GOALS – $12
A more speculative bet here. Without Luke Bruest and Dylan Moore still playing large minutes in the midfield, it leaves only Tyler Brockman and Chad Wingard as genuine small forwards. He kicked two goals against them at this ground last season and without Chapman the Dockers’ small defenders outside of Luke Ryan are non-existent. He has a good chance of hitting the scoreboard.
PORT ADELAIDE VS ESSENDON – SUNDAY 1.10PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
I do not think there is any value around the line or handicap markets in this game. I think the Power should be a slight favourite but the odds look to be more distanced than that with the Power being $1.50 favourites. Prop betting looks like the way to go.
OLLIE WINES 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.75
He has hit this mark the last two times he has played Essendon and he is building into his season nicely, hitting this mark in his last three games against tougher opposition in the Bulldogs and the Saints. I think he will get his time running through the middle and he will be too big and tough for the likes of Merrett and Parish in the contest.
JASON HORNE-FRANCIS 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.90
The youngster was enormous in the final term last week and I think he will play well again here. He is a dominant clearance player and it is an area that the Bombers are extremely poor in. I think he will get his average clearance numbers which is about 7, which should see him get another thirteen disposals around the ground.
JEREMY FINLAYSON 3+ GOALS – $3/4+ GOALS – $7
Who is going to play on Finlayson? Reid and Zerk-Thatcher will likely go to Marshall and Dixon which leaves Ridley to play on Finlayson who has been relatively poor at defending 1v1 contests this year. I think Finlayson will hit the scoreboard.
ARCHIE PERKINS 2+ GOALS – $3.40
The Power struggle against small forwards and with their worries based on the medium-sized forwards in Jake Stringer and Kyle Langford I think Perkins will be the one that breaks the chains and hits the scoreboard. He has had a poor month but he has still had over two scoring shots in two out of those four games. He can hit the scoreboard hard if he plays anywhere near his best footy here.
COLLINGWOOD VS SYDNEY – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MCG
I do not think there is much value around the line or handicap markets in this game. I think the Pies should be favourites but not at $1.40 and the rain around turns me off betting on the total points market. I do like a few prop bets.
LANCE FRANKLIN 2+ GOALS – $1.90/3+ GOALS – $4/4+ GOALS – $10
He loves playing the Magpies does Buddy and he has kicked at least two against them in his last three matches against them and he has hit this mark in three out of four games this season. He loves the MCG, and I am not sure if Darcy Moore is going to play on him and if he does not, he might be able to kick a bag. He only needs it a few times these days does Buddy and I think he will have a big day on Sunday.
ISAAC HEENEY 2+ GOALS – $2.60/3+ GOALS – $7
I have been critical of Heeney in recent weeks but he still is getting scoring shots away. He has kicked a goal a game this season but if it was not for inaccuracy, he would have kicked more than that. With the Pies’ defence focusing on Franklin, McDonald, and Papley I think Heeney gets a good match-up on either Isaac Quaynor or John Noble. He should be able to hit the scoreboard if he gets opportunities.
JAMIE ELLIOTT 2+ GOALS – $2/3+ GOALS – $4.70
The Swans’ defence is undermanned and considering McCartin and Fox will play on Mihocek and Johnson, it allows Elliott without the likes of Rampe playing to hit the scoreboard. I am not sure what match-up the Swans will run with on him but none of them look promising. He should be able to his aerial ability to get on top of the Swans’ small defenders.
That Ends the betting preview for this week! We do not like any bets in the Kangaroos and Saints game. We think that the TOAL GAME POINTS OVER (+171.5) for tonight’s clash is the safest and best bet of the round. Happy punting!
So, those are my bets for this weekend? What are your best bets?
Think About What You Could Be Buying Instead. Set A Deposit Limit.