We went 6/9 in our AFL tips last week and it was one of the better weeks we have had for a while. Round nine promises to be a brilliant one. The Tigers and Cats have one of the biggest modern rivalries in football and they kick off a Friday night doubleheader with the Eagles playing the Suns out West later in the night. The Blues and the Bulldogs square off in a proper eight-point game on Saturday night, and the Crows look to bounce back against a Saints team who still sits inside the top four. Let’s get into it!
RICHMOND VS GEELONG – FRIDAY 7.20PM – MCG
The Tigers have stumbled their way to a 2-5 start to the season and sit in the bottom four whilst the Cats have won their last five games and have won them all in good fashion and now sit in the top six. The Cats, much like the Tigers a few weeks ago, are starting to reach a tipping point regarding injuries. Patrick Dangerfield and Cameron Guthrie are arguably their two best midfielders who are out, and Jack Henry and Sam De Koning are out of the back six. Luckily for the Cats, the areas the Tigers could have capitalised in also have injuries. Tom Lynch and Toby Nankervis are still out of the side whilst Robbie Tarrant is still out as well. That’s a big chunk of the Tigers’ spine still missing.
WHERE THE TIGERS CAN WIN:
The Tigers need to get some dominance in the clearances. They have been much better in this area over the last month and they play a Geelong team missing their two best midfielders. Tim Taranto has had a very good month of football averaging close to seven clearances a game but outside of his good mate Jacob Hopper he has had little to no help. Dion Prestia is only averaging three a game, and Shai Bolton is averaging four but that was massively skewed by the West Coast game and after that the cupboard is bare. The Tigers midfielders have a chance to dominate a young and inexperienced Geelong midfield on Friday night but the likes of Prestia, Bolton, Cotchin, and Ross just need to win more contested ball. We know they have the ability too and if they can, and then get it forward quickly, the Tigers forwards can be given chances that they haven’t really had all season. Dustin Martin needs to be the spark forward of the centre and historically he has loved playing against the Cats. Win the contest and make it a Richmond style of game and they can pull off an upset. Don’t, and the Cats will score at will and it will be a horrible night for the Tigers.
WHERE THE CATS CAN WIN:
This Richmond defence is still a good one but it has shown at various times this season that it can be vulnerable against good teams. The match-up that will be keeping Damien Hardwick up at night is the one of Tom Hawkins. Does Noah Balta go to Hawkins? I think he’s one of only a few defenders in the competition who can nullify the influence of Jeremy Cameron but he is also the only proper lockdown key defender in the Richmond team. If they do decide to send either Grimes or Broad to Cameron it is an obvious risk, but it might be one they need to take. The Richmond Captain hasn’t been at his usual best this season and if he is off his game in the slightest, the match-up will turn into a blood bath. Hawkins and Cameron are the key factors for the Cats. If they can break even in the middle and get it to them quickly, they should win Geelong the game. Don’t, and the Cats’ avenues to goal with Brad Close also missing seem very small. Balta Vs Hawkins and Grimes Vs Cameron is worth the price of admission alone.
TIP: The Cats by eight points. The Tigers will be gallant but the Cats will do enough to win.
WEST COAST VS GOLD COAST – FRIDAY 8.40PM – OPTUS STADIUM
The Eagles have lost their last five games coming into this fixture and are completely depleted by injuries after losing another player to an ACL last week. The Suns have had a good few weeks beating North Melbourne, and Richmond, and then going down by a kick to Premiership favourites Melbourne. Ben Ainsworth and Nick Holman are a chance to come back in for the Suns but nothing is concrete yet.
WHERE THE EAGLES CAN WIN:
The Eagles still have a very capable forward line if the midfield can get it down there enough. Oscar Allen has kicked twenty-two goals and has flown under the radar significantly due to the Eagles’ poor performances. He has kicked four goals against both Geelong and Richmond in the last month who are two of the best defences in the competition and there’s nothing saying he can’t kick a big bag at home against a weaker Gold Coast team. Jake Waterman will take the Suns third best defender and that’s where their defence really falls away. Sean Lemmens will likely get the match-up and is giving away 9cm and eleven kilograms. If the Eagles’ midfield can find a way to get it forward and give the Eagles’ forwards some chances, they can kick a winning score.
WHERE THE SUNS CAN WIN:
The clearance and contested ball is the Suns’ one wood and it is where they can gain some dominance in this game. They rank second in clearances per game this season and the Eagles rank fifteenth. Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson are both averaging seven clearances a game and Jarrod Witts is averaging six which is incredibly good for a ruckman. Outside of Tim Kelly, there is no real inside midfielder in this Eagles team and I think if they get some domination around the clearances, they can give it to the good users such as Brandon Ellis and David Swallow who can use it well going inside fifty. The Eagles don’t have a recognised key defender in the side outside of Tom Barrass which makes the matchups against Levi Casboult who is 199cm and 104kgs and Mabior Chol who is 200cm and 96kgs very worrying. If they get easy ball inside fifty the Suns’ key forwards will have a big day out.
TIP: Gold Coast should be too good for the Eagles. Suns by seven goals in a high-scoring game.
SYDNEY VS FREMANTLE – SATURDAY 1.45PM – SCG
The Dockers and the Swans have both had incredibly poor starts to the season and they sit together in the bottom eight at the beginning of round nine. Fremantle belted the Hawks at home last week whilst the Swans were honest in defeat against a Premiership contender in Collingwood. Tom Hickey is expected to return and I expect Peter Ladhams to make way which will combat the Fremantle ruck duo. Any Fremantle changes will depend on whether they decide to play Nathan Fyfe for a full game or not.
WHERE SYDNEY CAN WIN:
The Sydney small and medium-sized forwards need to hit the scoreboard in order for them to kick a winning score. The Dockers’ small defenders outside of Brandon Walker and Luke Ryan aren’t really accountable which means they should be able to isolate the likes of Jordan Clark and Hayden Young. Tom Papley has had a brilliant start to the season having kicked seventeen goals from eight games and he needs the likes of Will Hayward and Isaac Heeney to hit the scoreboard with him. I assume Ryan will get the Papley match-up which should allow for both Heeney and Hayward to find suitable match-ups. Break even in the middle, move the ball quickly, and let the forwards go to work is how they win this game.
WHERE FREMANTLE CAN WIN:
The Swans’ only key defender is Tom McCartin and assuming he goes to Luke Jackson allows the likes of Jye Amiss and Josh Treacy to have favourable matchups. Robbie Fox will be giving away 10cm to either player and even though he has been good in recent weeks, it is the match-up they need to try and isolate. The smalls in both Michael Walters and Lachie Schultz have combined for twenty-four goals this season and if the likes of Blakey and Fox are occupied it might allow both of them to have favourable matchups against the likes of Harry Cunningham and Ollie Florent. The midfield battle looks to be even which indicates the forward fifties of both teams will be the difference in the game.
TIP: Sydney in a relatively high-scoring affair. Sydney by fifteen points.
NORTH MELBOURNE VS PORT ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 1.45PM – BLUNDSTONE ARENA
These two teams couldn’t be going any opposite. Port Adelaide have won five in a row and sit level on points with third whilst the Kangaroos have lost their last five and have been non-competitive in a few of those games. North Melbourne could make a host of changes but I expect Callum Coleman-Jones to return whilst Kane Farrell is likely to be recalled for Junior Rioli who misses via suspension.
WHERE THE KANGAROOS CAN WIN:
The Kangaroos are good at restricting the influence of other teams’ midfielders in the contest and they need to do that again here. The likes of Luke Davies-Uniacke, Jy Simpkin, and Ben Cunnington need to match it with the inside bulls at the Power and by doing this they can in turn make it a scrappy contest in average conditions which might be their best chance of winning this game. Nick Larkey was back to playing well last week against a good Saints defence and he will need to hit the scoreboard hard again if the Kangaroos are to have any chance of winning this game.
WHERE THE POWER CAN WIN:
Everywhere is probably the answer to this question. The Power have a brilliant inside midfield brigade and they can spread quickly with the likes of Rozee, Butters, and Houston on the outside. The Power play a tall forward line and outside of Ben McKay this North Melbourne defence is poor. Griffin Logue has been performing disgracefully since crossing from Fremantle and he likely plays on one of Todd Marshall and Jeremy Finlayson who are both in terrific form and have combined for twenty-two goals this season. I think Port Adelaide are just a much better team than the Kangaroos and it would take a poor effort from them to lose this one.
TIP: Port Adelaide in a canter. They should win by at least five or six goals.
HAWTHORN VS MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 4.35PM – MCG
These are two teams at the completely different end of the spectrum regarding where they are at. Hawthorn are 1-7 and in a rebuilding phase yet have had a reasonably good month without winning whereas Melbourne sit second on the ladder and are 6-2. Luke Bruest and Changkuoth Jiath are both likely to return for the Hawks whilst Jacob Van Rooyen will miss for the Demons with Ben Brown expected to come back in for him.
WHERE HAWTHORN CAN WIN:
Hawthorn are a good contested ball and clearance team and Melbourne has really struggled in that area this year and that is where the Hawks can win the game. James Worpel, Jai Newcombe, and Conor Nash are all big-bodied midfielders who win the contested ball and the likes of Christian Petracca have been found wanting in that area this season. The Melbourne defence is a brilliant one and I doubt Hawthorn can kick a winning score regardless, but their best weapon is to win around the contest and for this not to be a blowout, I think that’s what they need to do. Mitch Lewis is also in terrific form after coming back from his Knee injury and could cause headaches for the Melbourne back six at the MCG.
WHERE THE DEMONS CAN WIN:
Break-even at worst in the midfield and then get it in quick to a forward line that has been very dominant this season. Melbourne ranks second in the competition for points scored this year and first for inside 50s which spells trouble for a Hawthorn defence that is ranked as the second-worst in the league. The key forwards don’t cause too much concern but the medium and small-sized forwards definitely do. James Sicily is the likely match-up for Bayley Fritsch which will be a cracking one to watch, Blake Hardwick will go to Kysaiah Pickett but then the likes of Kade Chandler and Alex Neal-Bullen are left with very favourable matchups. Not to mention Christian Petracca playing as a midfielder who rests forward. I think the Demons will be able to restrict the Hawks from kicking a winning score at one end and be too potent at the other.
TIP: Melbourne should win easily. Demons by seven or eight goals.
BRISBANE VS ESSENDON – SATURDAY 7.25PM – GABBA
The Bombers have lost three of their last four after starting the season 4-0 and now sit half a game outside of the eight and travel to Brisbane to face a Lions team who have won their last five and sit inside the top four. Jordan Ridley is a huge out for the Bombers considering the absence of Jayden Laverde and Kane Baldwin is expected to replace him. Sam Durham returns for the Bombers as well. Dayne Zorko is 50/50 to return against the Bombers and a Thursday training session will decide that.
WHERE THE LIONS CAN WIN:
Brisbane rank first in clearances per game this season and the Bombers rank twelfth and haven’t won the contested ball count in a month. The Lions midfielders are an experienced and brilliant group with the likes of Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley, Will Ashcroft, and Hugh McCluggage rolling through there. The Lions’ game is basically winning the clearance and contested ball and getting it in as fast as you can towards what is a very potent forward line. The Bombers are missing two key defenders in Jayden Laverde and Jordan Ridley and the matchups don’t look good for the Bombers on paper. Eric Hipwood is likely to play on Kane Baldwin who hasn’t played senior footy for a while and Jack Gunston is likely to get Kyle Langford who isn’t really a defender. Additionally, the Lions have Charlie Cameron who has kicked twenty-six goals this season and Cameron Rayner and Zac Bailey up forward who have combined for twenty goals. It is hard to see the Essendon defence being able to contain the Lions.
WHERE THE BOMBERS CAN WIN:
The Bombers can still score quickly and that is what they need to do here. They need a big lift from two or three guys in the contest and one of those is Captain Zach Merrett. The other is Will Setterfield who has been terrible over the last month. If they lift in and around the contest then the Bombers will score heavily. Sam Weideman is in career-best form and has kicked nine goals over the last three weeks and the likes of Jake Stringer and Kyle Langford have combined for twenty-seven goals this season. If the Bombers can win the stoppages and get in quickly, the Bombers will score heavily because they have a fantastic system under new coach Brad Scott. Win the contest and they give themselves a chance, don’t and they will be completely humiliated.
TIP: Brisbane should win this one easily. Brisbane by at least six or seven goals.
CARLTON VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – SATURDAY 7.30PM – MARVEL STADIUM
These teams come into this with basically opposite form guides. Carlton have lost three of their last four in frustrating fashion for their fans whilst the Bulldogs have got on a roll and won four of their last five. Adam Treloar and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan are expected to go out with Hayden Crozier and Buku Khamis being put up as likely inclusions. Matt Owies will likely return for the Blues and a fascinating selection decision surrounds Tom De Koning who is available this week.
WHERE THE BLUES CAN WIN:
Getting some speed on the ball and some direct ball movement is the answer to this question. The Blues have been stifled by the likes of Brisbane and the Saints in recent weeks and this Carlton team has just accepted it by seemingly being scared of kicking the Sherrin. Treloar is a big out for the Dogs and the Blues must take advantage of it by the likes of Patrick Cripps and George Hewett not only winning the ball but being more damaging with it. Win it at the clearance, play direct football, and then get it to arguably the best key forward combination in the game in Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay. Both of them have favourable matchups (especially McKay due to his speed and athleticism) and they can easily combine for nine or ten goals which goes a long way towards winning a game. It should be a simple game plan at Carlton but it seems like anything but at the moment.
WHERE THE DOGS CAN WIN:
If the Dogs can get on top in the contested ball and clearance game it will go a long way towards winning. They rank third in clearances per game and their Captain Marcus Bontempelli is leading the way ranking first in clearances per game across the competition. Tom Liberatore has also been brilliant in close this season ranking eighteenth in clearances per game. With the loss of Adam Treloar, it does mean that Jack Macrae and Bailey Smith are going to need to step up. They are both averaging four clearances a game and that number needs to lift to fill the void Treloar leaves. Their defence is setting up so well because generally, they are winning clearance which gives them field position. It all starts and ends with how the Dogs perform in the contest. If they win that area of the game, most of the time they win. Don’t, and it allows the superstar key forward duo of the Blues to get some access to fluent ball movement which spells danger.
TIP: I think Treloar and Ugle-Hagan are bigger outs than some are anticipating. Carlton but under a goal in what promises to be a brilliant game.
ADELAIDE VS ST KILDA – SUNDAY 1.10PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
The Crows come into this game off the back of two losses against two Premiership fancies in Geelong and Collingwood and sit half a game outside the eight. The Saints got the job done against the Kangaroos last week and sit third with a 6-2 record. Nick Murray is a big out for the Crows and Josh Worrell seems the likely replacement for him. Max King will return to football this weekend but we aren’t sure at what level yet. That remains to be seen and we will need to wait until Friday to know.
WHERE ADELAIDE CAN WIN:
The Adelaide midfielders need to lift. They have only won one clearance count over the last month and that was in a narrow win against Hawthorn. It arguably cost them the game against Collingwood when being beaten by twenty-one in this area and when they should have gained ascendancy last week after Patrick Dangerfield went down, they won the count only narrowly. Rory Laird is fighting the fight in the contest and ranks seventeenth in clearances in the league but besides him, it falls away massively. Rory Sloane, Jordan Dawson, Chayce Jones, and Jake Soligo are all averaging either three clearances or under and that is simply not good enough for the second and third-best midfielders at any club. The forwards are doing more than enough and rank fifth in points scored per game which is incredibly impressive considering they rank twelfth in inside 50s per game and they aren’t getting scored against heavily either. If the midfielders lift in this game and provide quicker and more frequent opportunities to the forward six, they will be in it up to their eyeballs. The likes of Josh Rachele and Izak Rankine may prove very troublesome for the Saints.
WHERE THE SAINTS CAN WIN:
They just need to keep doing what they are doing the Saints. It is Ross Lyon football to a tee. It isn’t great to watch but he restricts the opposition’s ball movement and therefore creates turnovers which they score from. The return of Max King might be the missing piece of the puzzle for the Saints and if he comes back, they are no longer a one-dimensional forward fifty. They can win this game by beating Adelaide on the inside which therefore gives them possession and allows them to play the game at their speed which is at times methodical and at other times at a hectic tempo. If the Saints can beat the Crows on the inside, it is hard to see them winning. They haven’t really played a forward line of this potency yet this season which is the big question leading into this game. How do they stack up against the best? We are about to find out.
TIP: Toss a coin really. Hardest game of the round to tip. Adelaide by under a goal.
COLLINGWOOD VS GWS GIANTS – SUNDAY 4.40PM – MCG
The Giants have played some really solid footy over the last month and have two wins to show for it whilst the Pies sit a game clear on top of the ladder after a couple of hard-fought wins against Adelaide and Sydney. Nathan Krueger is going to be tested this week and will most likely be the only change to the Pies outfit that beat the Swans. Toby Greene is a test after being a late withdrawal after an ankle injury in what would most likely be the Giants’ only change as well.
WHERE COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:
The Magpies have been brilliant around the contest and clearance in the last month and rank fifth in clearances per game whilst the Giants are ranked last in the league. After Tom Green and Stephen Coniglio, their clearance winners are essentially non-existent and the Pies have a big spread of guys who can rotate through there and win their own ball. There is no one dominant clearance player on their side and it is an even spread between Jordan De Goey, Tom Mitchell, Taylor Adams, Brayden Maynard, Jack Crisp, John Noble, and the Daicos brothers who all average over three clearances a game. If they get on in this area, I think the Giants will struggle to contain the Pies forwards without their star key defender in Sam Taylor. They rank first in inside 50s per game and if they continue in that vein, they will just overwhelm a relatively inexperienced Giants defence.
WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN:
The Giants midfielders outside of Green and Coniglio need to lift. If they want to be competitive against the best teams there needs to be more than two guys winning clearances. Josh Kelly and Callan Ward are the experienced guys who need to lead this charge of the lesser likes and the likes of Finn Callaghan, Harry Perryman, and Ryan Angwin need to start finding their own ball. The Giants’ forward line is more than capable of troubling any team. Jesse Hogan is having a terrific season, as is their captain in Toby Greene. The likes of Harry Himmelberg and Brent Daniels can also hit the scoreboard in a big way – they just need more opportunity. They are the third-worst team for inside 50s per game this season and if they start winning it more at the coal face, this will change. It is on the midfielders to harden up and help their two superstars.
TIP: It is hard to see the Giants winning this one. Collingwood by six or seven goals in a comfortable win.
THOSE ARE MY TIPS THIS WEEK, WHO ARE YOU ON?