We are back for another week of AFL punting. We have had a topsy-turvy start to the season and just like my Tigers, I’m hoping I can find some consistency. We think the forwards will have a big weekend this week and if they do, we should be in profit come Sunday!
RICHMOND VS GEELONG – FRIDAY 7.20PM – MCG
I think the bet I like here in terms of H2H or line betting is TOTAL GAME POINTS OVER (+170.5) – $1.90. The last two times these teams have played each other they have gone over this mark and the defensive setups look weaker now for both teams than they did in either of those games. I also like some prop bets here.
TIM TARANTO 30+ DISPOSALS – $1.85
I think he is pretty much a lock to hit this mark and is a good anchor in most of your multi-bets. He has hit this mark in five out of eight games this season and has hit the mark in every game over the last month of football. With Patrick Dangerfield and Cameron Guthrie missing, I think he can get on top in and around the contest and find plenty of the footy.
JACOB HOPPER 25+ DISPOSALS – $2
The rationale is similar to why I love the Taranto bet. This one is a tad riskier as he has only done it twice this season but those two games have both come in the last month and with the absences in the Geelong midfield, I feel like the two big-name Tiger recruits should be able to find the ball quite easily.
MARK BLICAVS 20+ DISPOSALS – $3.60
This is a bit more speculative as he hasn’t hit this mark all season but I think Chris Scott will give him more midfield minutes on Friday night to take some of the burden away from the younger midfielders. He got twenty-four disposals the last time they played the Tigers playing this role and they tend to struggle against big-bodied midfielders which is what he is standing at 198cm and 101kgs.
TOM HAWKINS 3+ GOALS – $2/4+ GOALS – $3.80/5+ GOALS – $8
Pretty confident the big man can kick at least three goals on Friday night. If you take away last year’s game, he has had at least three scoring shots in four out of the last five games against the Tigers and they were against much more settled defences than the one he faces here. The man that stopped him last year was Robbie Tarrant who is still out and he either gets Noah Balta who has been susceptible in 1v1 contests this year or a smaller man in Dylan Grimes who he will have the size and strength advantage over.
WEST COAST VS GOLD COAST – SATURDAY 8.40PM – OPTUS STADIUM
I think GOLD COAST AT THE LINE (-21.5) – $1.90 looks the bet here. They have been very good in the last few weeks and were probably unlucky not to have beaten the Demons last week. Bring anywhere near that level of football here and they should beat the line comfortably. I like a host of prop bets in this one.
MATT ROWELL 25+ DISPOSALS – $3
He has only hit this mark twice this season but in his last game against the Eagles at this ground, he had 33 disposals and was the best on the ground. The Eagles are horrible around the clearances and they also don’t provide much pressure on the way out of them which Rowell occasionally struggles with. I think he will be able to break away from the stoppage a bit more in this contest which will see him hit this mark.
DAVID SWALLOW 25+ DISPOSALS – $3
He seems like a big price considering he hit this mark just last week against the Demons. West Coast are worse than they are and with the absence of Touk Miller someone needs to take that role and I think they have picked Swallow as the man to do it. He can win his own ball and he is one of their better users which makes them want to give the ball to him. He can have a big night and find plenty of it.
MABIOR CHOL 2+ GOALS – $1.90/3+ GOALS – $4/4+ GOALS – $9
I thought he would be well in the red based on his form last week (two goals against a very good Melbourne defence) and the fact that in his last two games against the Eagles, he has kicked hauls of five and two goals. The team he kicked five on was missing Jeremy McGovern just like they are now and I don’t think Rotham can go with him in the air. If he gets some 1v1 contests he will kick a bag.
JAKE WATERMAN 2+ GOALS – $2/3+ GOALS – $4/4+ GOALS – $9.75
The Suns’ defenders will be occupied by Oscar Allen and Jack Darling and their lack of a third tall means that Waterman should get a very favourable match-up. He has kicked four goals on two occasions already this season in an Eagles team that is horrible so I think nearly double figures in that market is silly. If the Eagles midfielders can get it down there enough, he will be the Eagles’ most dangerous forward.
SYDNEY VS WEST COAST – SATURDAY 1.45PM – SCG
I think the obvious bet is the TOTAL GAME POINTS OVER (+166.5) – $1.88. Both of these teams sit in the bottom six in team defence and both have some very damaging players forward of fifty. The Swans with the likes of Lance Franklin, Tom Papley, Will Hayward, Logan McDonald, and Isaac Heeney and the Dockers’ key forwards in Jye Amiss and Josh Treacy will be licking their lips considering the Swans are still without a recognised key defender aside from Tom McCartin. I like some prop bets surrounding goalkickers.
WILL HAYWARD 2+ GOALS – $2.60/3+ GOALS – $6.50/4+ GOALS – $19
If he had taken his chances this season and not kicked inaccurately, he might have been in the frame for an All-Australian Blazer and therefore I’m happy to back him in each of these markets. He has had two scoring shots in seven of the eight games he has played this season and he has kicked over two goals in three games this season. I don’t think the Dockers have a match-up for him and I think he can hit the scoreboard here.
ISAAC HEENEY 2+ GOALS – $2.40/3+ GOALS – $6/4+ GOALS – $16
He has burnt us a few times this season but I’m sticking fat with Isaac here and I think he can hit the scoreboard. He plays majority forward as things currently stand and assuming Luke Ryan goes to Tom Papley, I am not sure the likes of Brandon Walker and Jordan Clark will be able to compete with Heeney in the air. I think he can take a few big clunks and hit the scoreboard in this game.
JYE AMISS 2+ GOALS – $2.55/3+ GOALS – $6.20
The Swans’ lack of a key defender outside of Tom McCartin has left them vulnerable in recent weeks and I think Amiss is the latest forward that can take advantage of that. He has kicked two goals in three out of the seven games he has played this season and I think playing on either Robbie Fox or Nick Blakey is an ideal match-up for him. I think the young star can make a statement away from home on Saturday.
NORTH MELBOURNE VS PORT ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 2.45PM – BLUNDSTONE
It’s hard to bet on this game at all. For anyone desperate, my prediction is that Jeremy Finlayson will get a favourable matchup and hit the scoreboard hard and that the likes of Connor Rozee and Zak Butters will get the Kangaroos midfield on the spread. There just isn’t any value around at the current prices to justify betting on the game. Leaving it through to the keeper.
HAWTHORN VS MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 4.35PM – MCG
I can’t see much value in either the H2H or line betting in this game. Melbourne hasn’t impressed me a whole lot over the last month even though they have been winning but it is hard to pick the Hawks with confidence in any game. I like a prop bet on a Demon goalkicker.
KADE CHANDLER 2+ GOALS – $1.90/3+ GOALS – $4/4+ GOALS – $10/5+ GOALS – $26
He has been a pleasant surprise for the Demons’ forward line and I think he gets a favourable match-up with the Hawthorn small and medium-sized defenders being occupied by some other Demons forwards. He has kicked three goals on three separate occasions this season and all three of them have come at the MCG. He loves the MCG; he will have enough opportunity and I think he can kick a bag.
BRISBANE VS ESSENDON – SATURDAY 7.25PM – GABBA
I think the bet here is for TOTAL POINTS OVER (+183.5) – $1.88. Both these teams score and score quickly, however, their defensive setups can leave them vulnerable. With the Bombers missing Jordan Ridley and Jayden Laverde I think it opens up opportunities for the Lions forwards and for that reason, I also like BRISBANE AT THE LINE (-25.5) – $1.90. I like a few prop bets in this one.
ERIC HIPWOOD 3+ GOALS – $3/4+ GOALS – $6.80
I think Hipwood is the main beneficiary of the Bombers’ defensive outs and I think he can kick a small bag on Saturday. He likely gets the match-up on either Kane Baldwin or Jake Kelly and I just think he has the size advantage over one and the football smarts and experience over the other. The Lions always get it down there enough and I think Hipwood will be the one that gets off the chain for them.
CAMERON RAYNER 2+ GOALS – $2.30/3+ GOALS – $5.40/4+ GOALS – $14
I think Rayner is the other that can break loose. Assuming Zerk-Thatcher, Baldwin, Kelly, and Langford are occupied I’m not sure who they will send to Rayner. Since moving back to the forward fifty he has kicked eight goals in the last month so I think getting $2.30 to kick his monthly average is a decent bet.
ARCHIE PERKINS 2+ GOALS – 2.70/3+ GOALS – $7
He oozes class this young bloke and he is putting together a breakout season of sorts. He has kicked eleven goals from eight games this season and if it wasn’t for inaccuracy, he could have kicked a few more. He kicked three goals the last time he played the Lions and there’s nothing saying he cannot do that again here. $7 is a big price and I’m happy to back him.
CARLTON VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – SATURDAY 7.30PM – MARVEL STADIUM
With the out of Adam Treloar and the likely out of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, I like the BLUES H2H – $2 here. I think they can break even in the contested ball and that the Blues forwards will be too big and too strong for the Bulldog defence. I like Harry McKay as a prop bet here.
HARRY MCKAY 2+ GOALS – $1.80/3+ GOALS – $3.60/4+ GOALS – $8/5+ GOALS – $23
I think McKay will have his night out against the Dogs. He has kicked four in his last two games against the Dogs and I think he has a major athleticism advantage over his likely matchup in Alex Keath and if they do decide to send Ryan Gardner on him, I think he has a major strength advantage. If the Blues can get it in quick to big Harry, I think he might be able to kick a bag and win them the game.
ADELAIDE VS ST KILDA – SUNDAY 1.10PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
I don’t think there is any value in the H2H or line betting in this game. I think it is a game that is too close to call and if anything the Saints are slight overs, but not enough to justify backing them. I like the one-prop bet.
JOSH RACHELE 2+ GOALS – $3/3+ GOALS – $8
Rachele might be the one who can kick a few for the Crows. The Saints have a very good defensive set up but if there is a vulnerability down there it is with their small defenders. Whoever they think their best small defender is will go to Izak Rankine which will allow Rachele a favourable match-up. Inaccuracy has cost him in his the last few weeks and I’m backing him in to bounce back and hit the scoreboard in this game.
COLLINGWOOD VS GWS GIANTS – SUNDAY 4.40PM – MCG
We are ending a quiet footy Sunday with just one bet and it is a prop bet. I don’t think there is any value in the H2H or line markets in this game.
JORDAN DE GOEY 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.10
The Giants are terrible around clearance and contest and Jordan De Goey is a force inside and around the clearances this season which indicates that he will find plenty of the ball. He also gets a lot of the ball around the ground and I think he will want to bounce back after a somewhat poor display last week against the Swans.
So, those are my bets for this weekend? What are your best bets?
Think About What You Could Be Buying Instead. Set A Deposit Limit.