We are back for another preview of the AFL action and it shapes to be the round of the season. It is headlined by two traditional blockbusters. Essendon Vs Richmond at the MCG for the annual Dreamtime at the G match and then arch-rivals Collingwood and Carlton play each other on Sunday afternoon with plenty on the line. It kicks off with a top-four clash on Friday night with Melbourne heading to South Australia and it finishes with the Saints needing a win over the Giants on Sunday afternoon. Let’s get cracking!
PORT ADELAIDE VS MELBOURNE – FRIDAY 7.50PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
Both teams come into this game in terrific form. Port Adelaide have won their last five games and the Demons have won four out of their last five. Funnily enough, their last loss was at this ground during Gather round. Melbourne will be forced to make two changes with Tom Sparrow and Harrison Petty being forced outs. Tom McDonald and James Jordon look to be the replacements. Port Adelaide will be stressing about the fitness of Charlie Dixon even more so than usual with Todd Marshall coming out due to a concussion. His fitness will play a big role in this game.
WHERE THE POWER CAN WIN:
Port Adelaide needs to win the contested ball and clearance battle in order to win this game. It has been a strength of theirs this season (ranking fourth in the competition) and it is something the Demons have struggled with (ranking eleventh in the competition) even though they have big names running through there. They have a fantastic mix of size and speed in that midfield and it is led by the younger brigade in Jason Horne-Francis and Willem Drew. If they can get their clearance game going and win the territory battle, we know they can put a score on the board with them ranking fifth in the competition for points per game with the likes of Jeremy Finlayson and Charlie Dixon up there. This is their litmus test halfway through the season. Can the defence stand up against the best forward set-up in the competition and will this midfield stand up against the superstars of the Demons? They have already taken the scalps of Brisbane, St Kilda, and the Bulldogs. Win this and they are genuine Premiership contenders.
WHERE THE DEMONS CAN WIN:
The Demons need to lift throughout the middle of the ground. They have only won the clearance battle once over the last month and they have got away with it against teams like Hawthorn, North Melbourne, and Richmond. If they do that against a good side like the Power each end of the ground might not be able to stand up as well as they have in recent weeks. The other area where they can cash in is with the potency of their small forwards. Port Adelaide have struggled against medium and small-sized forwards this year and the Demons have a very talented threesome which includes Bayley Fritsch, Kysaiah Pickett, and Kade Chandler who have combined for forty-seven goals over the first nine weeks of football. If the Demons can dominate possession like they usually do at least a couple of their smalls will get mismatches and I think they will be able to take advantage of them and kick a winning score.
TIP: Close call this one. Melbourne by eight points. They have my trust currently.
NORTH MELBOURNE VS SYDNEY – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MARVEL STADIUM
Both teams come into this in poor form. The Kangaroos have lost their last seven after starting the season with two wins and the Swans have lost their last four. Both teams have been smashed with injury. Aidan Corr, Luke Davies-Uniacke, and Cameron Zurhaar are amongst a host of changes for the Kangaroos whilst the Swans’ long injury list got even longer with Callum Mills and Logan McDonald expected to miss this week.
WHERE THE KANGAROOS CAN WIN:
If the Kangaroos can break even in the contest around the ground, then their key forwards can pose a significant issue for an undersized Sydney defence. They conceded seven goals to the big Fremantle forwards last week and allowed Brody Mihocek to kick five goals the week before. Nick Larkey has kicked twenty-three goals this season and has kicked nine goals over the last three weeks in big losses. If they can get him some more opportunities with some speed on the ball going forward, I think the likes of Aaron Francis and Nick Blakey will struggle to contain him. Callum-Coleman Jones kicked nine goals last week in the VFL and at 200cm tall whoever his opponent is will be outsized by around 8cm. Under the roof at Marvel, I think the Kangaroos’ key forwards can have a considerable influence on this game if they are given enough opportunity.
WHERE THE SWANS CAN WIN:
The area the Swans can get on top in is throughout the contest and clearance battle. Callum Mills going out does not affect this too much as he has been playing a bit part role in defence and they just bat deeper than the Kangaroos’ midfield does, especially when they are missing their best inside midfielder in Luke Davies-Uniacke. With him and Zurhaar out and the expected starting midfield of Simpkin, Cunnington, and Shiels occupying most of the stoppages, the Swans midfield of James Rowbottom, Luke Parker, and Chad Warner can match them for size and then take advantage of their speed. Errol Gulden and Tom Papley will also push through there to try and maximize this advantage. If the Swans get on top in the midfield I think the likes of Franklin, Papley, Heeney, and Hayward will be able to kick a winning score. This a must-win for the Swans. Lose and their season might be over.
TIP: Reckon the odds are crazy. In saying that, Sydney should do enough. Swans by eight points.
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 2.10PM – MARS STADIUM
Yet another top-eight battle awaits us and this time it is down at Ballarat where I expect it to be cold, wet, and miserable. The Bulldogs come into this game looking for five wins in a row after beating the Blues last week. The only change that may be on the horizon is last week’s debutant James O’Donnell coming out of the team for one of Buku Khamis or Josh Bruce. Adelaide have won three of their last five with the two losses coming against Geelong and Collingwood so they are going well. Nick Murray will return to replace Tom Doedee who has entered concussion protocols.
WHERE THE BULLDOGS CAN WIN:
I think the Dogs can get the advantage throughout the contest and in particular in the clearance battle. They rank third in clearances per game across the competition and the Crows rank seventeenth in clearances per game differential. Marcus Bontempeli has been brilliant in this area this season and with more midfield time for both Tom Liberatore and Bailey Smith last week they also upped their numbers. It could be the type of day that makes the clearance and territory battle crucial and if they can get enough ball inside forward fifty and at speed, the Dogs tall forwards in Rory Lobb and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan will have the height and strength advantage over the likes of Nick Murray and Mitchell Hinge who stand at 194cm and 189cm respectively. Dominate the clearances and I think the Dogs win.
WHERE THE CROWS CAN WIN:
The Crows have the most potent forward line in the competition and if the midfielders can get it down there and give them the opportunity, they could will them over the line in what is likely to be a low-scoring game. The Crows rank fourth in points per game this season and rank eleventh in inside 50s per game which shows how well the forward half is going. I think the mismatches they have are both with Darcy Fogarty on Liam Jones and with Riley Thilthorpe on Ryan Gardner. Jones can struggle on the really strong forwards which is what Fogarty is and Thilthorpe has a major height advantage over Gardner. If they can get it down there enough, the Dogs’ defence will be worried about the talls which will bring the likes of Izak Rankine, Josh Rachele, and Luke Pedlar into the game who have combined for forty-one goals this season. The midfield simply needs to hold their own and if they do, Adelaide probably win.
TIP: Another hard one to call. I trust the Dogs’ midfield and defence. Dogs by fourteen points.
FREMANTLE VS GEELONG – SATURDAY 4.35PM – OPTUS STADIUM
This is a big game for both clubs considering both had top-four aspirations at the beginning of the season. Geelong sit just inside the eight after a loss to the Tigers last week which ended a five-game winning streak and the Dockers are searching for three wins in a row after beating Hawthorn and Sydney in recent weeks. Nathan Fyfe will return to the starting 22 for the Dockers whilst the Cats are expected to bring back three Premiership players in Brad Close, Jack Henry, and Tyson Stengle.
WHERE THE DOCKERS CAN WIN:
The Dockers midfielders need to take advantage of an injury-riddled Geelong midfield group. They battled hard the Cats last week but were found wanting around the ground throughout the stoppage clearances during that third term and the likes of Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw, and Jaeger O’Meara need to dominate in this area to both get enough entries so that the Dockers kick a winning score and to keep the ball away from the Geelong front half to protect the defenders. They won the clearance battle by thirteen last week and the contested possession count by fifteen and they simply must do that again here in order to win this game. Win the contest, control the ball, and let the forwards get some 1v1 opportunities which should see them being good enough to win the game. Don’t dominate around the ball and the Cats could very easily overwhelm what is a fragile Fremantle defence.
WHERE THE CATS CAN WIN:
The midfield needs to do what it did last week for the majority of the game which is just break even. If they break even in there, they will get their turn to go inside fifty and I think the dangerous match-up for the Dockers is Alex Pearce on Tom Hawkins. Pearce has been poor this year and considering he doesn’t have the weapons that Noah Balta has (speed, strength) I think what Hawkins did in the first quarter last week could happen all night. The likes of Oscar Allen, Nick Larkey, and Taylor Walker have beaten Pearce convincingly this season and Hawkins is in brilliant form and I think he will do the same as they did. The Geelong small forwards are also worrying for the Dockers. They have struggled against small forwards this season (conceded six goals to them last week) and the likes of Tyson Stengle and Brad Close are some of the best in the competition. If Geelong can break even throughout the middle, I think they will be too potent up forward.
TIP: I think the Cats will do enough to win. Geelong by nineteen points.
BRISBANE VS GOLD COAST – SATURDAY 7.30PM – GABBA
The Lions have won five on the bounce and at this stage of the year look to be the most likely Premiership winner (in my opinion) and they play a Gold Coast team who have won three of their last four and sit just outside the eight. Nick Holman and Ben Ainsworth are big ins for the Suns as they balance out their front half of the ground and it seems unlikely the Lions will make any changes.
WHERE THE LIONS CAN WIN:
These two teams are the best clearance teams in the competition but the weapon the Lions have is that they bat deeper in there than the Suns do. Anderson, Rowell, and Swallow won’t be able to be in the contest for a whole four quarters and when they aren’t the likes of Atkins, Humphrey, and Fiorini look very vulnerable against the likes of Ashcroft, Bailey, and Berry. They need to take advantage of these moments and get it into their forward fifty and let their small forwards go to work. The Suns have conceded chunks of goals to small forwards this season in most games and the Lions have Charlie Cameron (26 goals), Zac Bailey (13 goals), and Cameron Rayner (10 goals) to contend with. I think the Lions can mitigate the Suns’ biggest strength and capitalise on their weaknesses in this contest.
WHERE THE SUNS CAN WIN:
Break even in the middle of the ground and then getting it in quick to the big forwards will be the plan for the Suns. Ben King is in terrific form having kicked fifteen goals over the last month and if it isn’t him doing the damage, the likes of Mabior Chol and Jack Lukosius can play a big hand in the result of this game. One of these two forwards is likely to get the match-up of Brandon Starcevich and he will be giving away 8cm. With Ainsworth and Holman back into the Suns’ team it gives the Lions a bit to worry about and if Gold Coast can get in there quickly from either the contest or with spread, they can kick a winning score. They have scored over 85 in four of their last five games so with enough opportunity they will hit the scoreboard.
TIP: I think this is a good match-up stylistically for the Lions. Brisbane by five goals.
ESSENDON VS RICHMOND – SATURDAY 7.40PM – MCG
One of the biggest matches of every year arrives on Saturday night with the annual Dreamtime at the G match. The Tigers beat the reigning Premiers Geelong last week and are looking for three wins on the trot whilst the Bombers have lost their last four and seem in a bit of bother. Jake Kelly and Jordan Ridley will come in for the Bombers whilst they lose another midfielder in Will Setterfield and the Tigers will lose Jacob Hopper. Captain Toby Nankervis is a test at this stage and shapes as a crucial in if he does come back into the side.
WHERE THE BOMBERS CAN WIN:
The Bombers need to win the clearance and contested ball battle or they won’t win the game. Neither team is particularly good in this area but I trust the Bombers system around the ball more than I trust the Tigers. Jake Stringer will most likely have to spend more time in the middle of the ground and Ben Hobbs may also have to be pushed through there more considering Darcy Parish and Will Setterfield are out. The Bombers rank thirteenth in inside 50s per game this season and that can’t happen on Saturday night considering the Tigers are a top-six defensive team in the competition. They must win the ball around the contest and get repeat inside 50s to put pressure on the Tigers’ defence. If they don’t, it is hard to see them kicking a winning score.
WHERE THE TIGERS CAN WIN:
Much like the Bombers, it needs to start around the contest and win that area for the Tigers. The pressure we have come to know and love from the Tigers was back last week against the Cats but they were still smashed in the clearance battle. Outside of Taranto and Bolton, they have been pretty poor in this area all year and it has allowed teams to dictate the game to them. If the Tigers midfield can break even and apply pressure like they did last week I don’t think they will lose the game. The front half of the ground has looked much better over the last fortnight and I think the key strength of the Tigers is their back six. If the midfielders and forwards apply pressure and don’t let easy ball into the defensive fifty, I think the likes of Balta, Grimes, Vlastuin, and Broad can cut off and intercept most of the Bombers’ attacking forays. Win the contested battle and I think they can use their speed to win them the game.
TIP: It really could go either way. I trust the Richmond system more so I’ll say Tigers by fourteen.
HAWTHORN VS WEST COAST – SUNDAY 1.10PM – UTAS STADIUM
A bottom-of-the-table clash awaits us on a Sunday afternoon. Both Hawthorn and West Coast have won just one game in the opening nine rounds of the season but it must be said that the Hawks have been much more competitive than the Eagles have been. Ned Reeves will return along with Tyler Brockman for the Hawks whilst Campbell Chesser will return for the Eagles. Jack Darling will miss months with a broken arm in what is another cruel blow to an already injury-riddled club.
WHERE HAWTHORN CAN WIN:
The Hawks have a very good inside midfield brigade and I think they have a major advantage over the likes of Sheed, Gaff, and Kelly who have struggled to win a clearance all season. Worpel, Newcombe, and Day have all averaged over five clearances a game and the likes of Connor Nash have averaged over four and for the Eagles, it is Tim Kelly or bust. Usually, the clearance battle is of huge importance down in Tasmania and I think the Hawks will smash the Eagles in this area. When they get it forward, I think the Hawks’ small forwards can go to work. The Eagles don’t really have a lockdown small defender with Hurn Missing and Rotham having to play tall which may allow for the likes of Luke Bruest (12 goals) and Tyler Brockman (6 goals) to hit the scoreboard along with the talented duo of Dylan Moore and Chad Wingard.
WHERE THE EAGLES CAN WIN:
The likes of Ruben Ginbey, Andrew Gaff, and Luke Edwards need to toughen up and win some contested ball. If they can really lift for what will be seen at West Coast as a winnable game then the Eagles have the forwards capable of kicking a winning score. Oscar Allen has been terrific all season kicking twenty-four goals and he gets a good match-up on either Sam Frost or James Sicily and Jake Waterman can also hit the scoreboard hard. Win the contest, get it forward quickly and let your biggest strength come into the game which is contested marking in the forward line. I think this is the only way they can win.
TIP: I think the Hawks will win this one easily. Hawthorn by seven goals.
COLLINGWOOD VS CARLTON – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MCG
The old arch-rivals face off in a game of huge importance to both of their seasons. The Magpies have lost one game all season and sit a game clear on top of the ladder but one loss brings them right back to the pack and the Blues have lost four of their last five with the sole win coming against the Eagles. Darcy Cameron will return for the Magpies whilst I don’t expect any changes at the Blues.
WHERE THE PIES CAN WIN:
The Pies can win this by bringing a level of pressure that the Blues can’t handle. They have been brilliant in this area of the game over the last month the Magpies and I think the likes of Mcreery, Hill, Hoskin-Elliot, and Jamie Elliot can make it very hard for the Blues to move the ball outside of their own defensive fifty and it doesn’t take much to do that currently. By doing this it allows their defence to set up well which is why they are the second-best defensive team in the competition. They just need to do exactly what they have been doing. Control possession, constrict the other teams’ clearance wins and lock it in their inside fifty with pressure. There is a lot of Richmond 2017 about this Collingwood outfit and that is very hard to beat when they are as confident as they are right now. Hard to beat again.
WHERE THE BLUES CAN WIN:
Carlton have got their clearance and contested ball game going well again over the last few weeks and they now need to translate that into scoring. They have basically drawn level in the clearance battle with the Bulldogs and the Lions over the last month and both of those teams have much better inside midfielders than the Pies do. The likes of Cripps, Walsh, Cerra, and Kennedy need to win at the source and move the ball quickly into the twin towers of Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay. Only inaccuracy stopped them from kicking bags against the Magpies last year in that heartbreaking final-round loss and there is no Jeremy Howe or new recruit Billy Frampton to help the defensive duo of Darcy Moore and Nathan Murphy this time. Get it in quick and the Pies defenders will naturally be like bees to a honey pot which allows the likes of Motlop, Durdin, and Owies the chance to hit the scoreboard hard as well.
TIP: I am tipping the upset. Carlton by eight points in an instant Sunday afternoon classic.
GWS GIANTS VS ST KILDA – SUNDAY 4.40PM – GIANTS STADIUM
This is a must-win game for both clubs. The Giants must win in order to keep their season alive and the Saints’ grip on a top-four and even top-eight finish will begin to come into jeopardy if they lose this one. Max King will replace Tim Membrey for the Saints while Jade Gresham is also expected to return. Toby Greene will come back in for the Giants in what is a huge boost for them.
WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN:
The Giants just need a lift from the likes of Josh Kelly, Harry Perryman, and Callan Ward. Perryman and Ward in particular are only averaging two clearances a game and they simply need to lift and if they do I think the Giants can beat the Saints around the contest. If they don’t, and they allow the Saints to control possession, I think their defence will be very hard to beat as they are ranked as the best defensive team in the competition and have a brilliant system. If they can win the contest and get some good inside fifty entries the likes of Jesse Hogan, Harry Himmelberg, and Toby Greene will put plenty of pressure on the Saints’ defence. The only way to beat the Saints is to move the ball quickly and beat them around the contest and that is what the Giants can do in order for them to win the game.
WHERE THE SAINTS CAN WIN:
The Saints forward line can pose plenty of problems for the Giants who are without both Sam Taylor and Isaac Cumming. The Giants have a real lack of a lockdown small defender and the Saints have some very talented small forwards in Jack Higgins, Daniel Butler, and Jade Gresham who have combined for forty goals this season. With the addition of Max King into this team and the aerial ability that Michito Owens possesses, I think they will worry about the aerial battle too much which will allow the smalls to hit the scoreboard. If they break even in the midfield, I think their defence will resist the Giants and they will be able to counter and hit the scoreboard going the other way.
TIP: Saints to win by four goals. There might be some nervous moments but they will do enough.
THOSE ARE MY TIPS THIS WEEK, WHO ARE YOU ON?