We are back again for another week of AFL betting action. We started poorly last week and ended well and it symbolised how our betting season has been. Very up and down. This week we see some of the arch-rivals square off with Essendon, Richmond, Collingwood, and Carlton playing against each other and I think there are some good betting opportunities across the weekend. Let’s get into it!
PORT ADELAIDE VS MELBOURNE – FRIDAY 7.40PM – ADELAIDE OVAL
I don’t love any of the H2H or line markets here. I think both Melbourne and Port Adelaide are at the right price and considering both teams are sound defensively I think the total points market line is about at the right number. I do like a few prop bets though.
KYSAIAH PICKETT 2+ GOALS – $1.85/3+ GOALS – $3.80/4+ GOALS – $9
I think the Melbourne smalls might be able to hit the scoreboard hard here. Port have struggled against good small forwards this year and Pickett has a terrific record against the Power kicking six goals against them in their last match and kicking three goals against them in 2021. He has kicked over two goals in five out of seven games this season and has kicked has had over three scoring shots on four occasions. If he has his kicking boots on, I think the Power defence will struggle to contain him.
KADE CHANDLER 2+ GOALS – $3/3+ GOALS – $8.50
Chandler has had a quiet fortnight but I’m backing him in to bounce back here. He has kicked three goals twice in the last month and one of those performances came against Richmond who are a terrific defence. I think the Power smalls and medium-sized defenders will be worried about Fritsch and Pickett which could allow Chandler to use his footy brain and get in the right spots so he can kick at least a couple of goals.
CONNOR ROZEE 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.80
Rozee has hit this mark five times this season out of nine games and he seems to go well against teams who lack speed on the spread around the stoppages and I think that is something Melbourne struggles with. Oliver and Viney are very one paced and Petracca never really defends from a stoppage. I think the inside mids of the Power will get their fair share of footy and he will get plenty of the footy by using his foot speed.
NORTH MELBOURNE VS SYDNEY – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MARVEL STADIUM
I think there is some value around in this game. NORTH MELBOURNE AT THE LINE (+38.5) – $1.90 is the main bet and I’m also having something small on NORTH MELBOURNE H2H – $6. The Swans are missing Logan McDonald and Callum Mills and they essentially have no key defender and have to contend with one of the competition’s best forwards in Nick Larkey. I think the Kangaroos can spring an upset. I like some prop bets as well.
NICK LARKEY 3+ GOALS – $2/4+ GOALS – $3.70/5+ GOALS – $8/6+ GOALS – $15
He is arguably the Kangaroos’ best player and I think he will take advantage of the Swans’ defensive misfortunes. I think either Aaron Francis or Nick Blakey will get the job on him and neither of them are key defenders who match up with the best opposition key forward. He kicked seven against them last season when they had the McCartin brothers playing. If they can get him some 1v1 opportunities and hit him up on the lead it is hard to see him not kicking a bag against this makeshift defence.
CALLUM COLEMAN-JONES 2+ GOALS – $3.50/3+ GOALS – $10
Having a stab at the big man here for the Kangaroos. He is coming off a nine-goal outing in the VFL last week and I think at 200cm and 105kg the Swans are going to find it hard to have a match-up for him. He kicked two or more goals in four out of his eight games in 2021 and it is fair to say he hasn’t had the best of luck since. I think he is back and in terrific form and he has a knack for kicking a couple of goals. His likely match-up is Aaron Francis who is 193cm and 92kg so he should be able to beat him if given any 1v1 opportunities.
CHAD WARNER 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.80
Both midfields are relatively poor but I do expect this guy to really hurt the Kangaroos when spreading from stoppages. A midfield that consists of Ben Cunnington, Hugh Greenwood, and Jy Simpkin is very slow and Warner has a brilliant ability to burst away from stoppages. He has hit this mark in six out of nine games this season and has hit it in each of the last three weeks. He always pushes forward too so if you need to pump up a multi he isn’t the worst anytime goalscorer bet.
WESTERN BULLDOGS VS ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 2.10PM – MARS STADIUM
After looking at the Dogs’ defence and the historical nature of the games they have played against each other I think the clear bet is TOTAL GAME POINTS UNDER (-162.5) – $1.88. The Dogs are one of the best defensive teams in the league and I think the conditions won’t be overly conducive to high scoring. I like a few prop bets.
TOM LIBERATORE 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.70/30+ DISPOSALS – $3.50
With Adam Treloar missing Liberatore played a bigger contested midfield role last week and he was brilliant when gathering twenty-six disposals and thirteen clearances. I think he will play a similar role on a day where the ball will be in the contest frequently and the Crows’ midfield isn’t great around the ball. He has hit the twenty-five mark in six out of his nine games this season and the $1.70 looks good value.
RORY LOBB 2+ GOALS – $2.20
I assume the Crows have brought in Elliot Himmelberg to play on Lobb but he is still giving away 7cm and 7 kg. Lobb has kicked two goals in each of the last three weeks and I am backing him in to do it again. I think Himmelberg is a natural forward and question his defensive craft and Lobb is always an awkward match-up.
LUKE PEDLAR 2+ GOALS – $2.65/3+ GOALS – $6.80
Some of the better value around this weekend I think is this guy. He has kicked two goals in each of his three last games and has had at least two scoring shots in five out of his eight games this season. With Ed Richards and Taylor Duryea being busy with Izak Rankine and Josh Rachele I think this guy can sneak a couple past them. Think he should be closer to $1.80 in the two-goal market.
FREMANTLE VS GEELONG – SATURDAY 4.35PM – OPTUS STADIUM
I don’t see any value in the H2H or line markets in this game. If anything, Fremantle should probably be a touch shorter but I want to stay out because I’m not sure what to expect from these two teams. I do like a few prop bets, however.
JAEGER O’MEARA 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.92
Longmuir has given his new recruit some more midfield time in recent weeks and he has paid him back well when hitting the twenty-five disposal mark in the last fortnight. The Geelong midfield which consists of Tanner Bruhn, Tom Atkins, and Max Holmes may struggle against the big-bodied inside midfielders (like Taranto last week) and I think O’meara will be the guy that can get on top of them throughout the contest.
MARK BLICAVS 20+ DISPOSALS – $3.50
He burnt me last week but I am sticking fat this week and going again. I think with Henry back it will free Blicavs up to play as a ruck more than anything else as he might use his agility to try and beat Sean Darcy and therefore win plenty of the footy around the ground. If he gets more midfield minutes, I think he will hit this mark. A speculative bet, but I am happy to take the punt.
BRAD CLOSE 2+ GOALS – $2.70
The dockers are light on for good lockdown small defenders and assuming Luke Ryan goes to Tyson Stengle I think Close gets a favourable match-up on Brandon Walker. Cameron and Hawkins (barring last week) pretty much always bring it to the ground and the way the likes of Miers and Bruhn bring it inside fifty suits the smalls who hit up and lead. He has two scoring shots in five out of eight games this season and if he has his kicking boots on I think he will kick a couple here.
BRISBANE VS GOLD COAST – SATURDAY 7.30PM – GABBA
I think the obvious bet is TOTAL GAME POINTS OVER (+175.5) – $1.88. I think both teams will find the ball inside fifty quite a lot and there are a few matchups that both clubs will back themselves in. I like a few prop bets and I think a few players can hit the scoreboard hard in a high-scoring game.
CHARLIE CAMERON 3+ GOALS – $1.98/4+ GOALS – $3.50/5+ GOALS – $7
He has a brilliant record against the Suns kicking seven goals in his last two matches against them and I don’t think they have a match-up for him in this game. He has kicked twenty-three goals in his last five games at an average of just over four a game and I think on his home deck he can kick another small bag. He will be incredibly hard to stop if the Lions can get in there quickly.
ZAC BAILEY 2+ GOALS – $2.40/3+ GOALS – $5.80/4+ GOALS – $16
Bailey is the man who can hit the scoreboard hard here as I expect him to play majority forward. He has kicked two or more goals in five games out of nine this season and he kicked six goals against the Suns last season. I think they will be worried about the talls and Charlie Cameron and if they don’t pay enough attention to him, he will make them pay. I think he can hit the scoreboard hard.
JACK LUKOSIUS 2+ GOALS – $2.65/3+ GOALS – $6/4+ GOALS – $21
Inaccuracy has cost him a brilliant start to the season and I am backing him to fix that up quickly as he is generally a beautiful kick of the football. He has kicked 11.15 this season and has had two or more scoring shots in six out of his nine games. I think he can get the mismatch with a smaller Brisbane defender in this game and I’m hoping he can straighten out his kicking issues.
NICK HOLMAN ATGS – $1.80/2+ GOALS – $5
Holman has kicked three goals in his last two matches against the Lions and he has kicked a goal in five out seven games this season. The Lions’ defence will have their hands full with the Suns’ tall forward line and Ben Ainsworth so I think this guy could yet again sneak a couple past them. Should be shorter in both markets.
ESSENDON VS RICHMOND – SATURDAY 7.40PM – MCG
I think the obvious bet is TOTAL GAME POINTS UNDER (-170.5) – $1.88. I doubt it will be a blowout result so I am banking on the fact that both defences will get on top and it will be a relatively high possession game and it might look a bit like Ping Pong at times. I like a host of prop bets.
JAKE STRINGER 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.55/2+ GOALS – $1.80
I think Stringer is the man who could take the game away from the Tigers. He spent time in the midfield against the Cats and had twenty-six disposals and kicked four goals before recording eighteen last week. The Tigers struggle against strong and explosive midfielders and that is exactly what he is. I think he will find plenty of the footy and I think they will have to rotate him through the midfield considering Parish and Setterfield are both out. He has had over two scoring shots in four out of his seven games this season.
JORDAN RIDLEY 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.12
I think with the addition of Kane Baldwin he will be relieved of having to play on a key forward and he will relish getting back to playing the interceptor role. He is hitting the twenty disposal mark in half of his games this season and most of those times he has played a forward line that lacks talls which is what Richmond does at the moment. I think he will enjoy intercepting the Tigers’ attacking plays all night.
TIM TARANTO 30+ DISPOSALS – $1.85
He has hit this mark in five out of his nine games this season and hasn’t dipped below twenty-five once. He plays a midfield that lacks hardness without Parish and Setterfield in it and I think on a cold and dewy night at the MCG, Taranto will be the guy that lifts this Tiger midfield. I get the feeling he will be best on ground.
SHAI BOLTON 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.75
I think after last week’s final term he will be sent into the centre again and he generally plays well in these Dreamtime Games. He has hit the twenty disposal mark in four out of his last five games and I think against a weakened Essendon midfield he can use his speed and evasiveness to win the contested ball.
NICK VLASTUIN 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.50
The unheralded Tiger plays game 200 on Saturday night and he has hit this mark in his last two games against the Bombers. I think he will be the man given the role to try and intercept everything and he will find plenty of the ball considering the Bombers have a tendency to blaze away when going forward. I think he will cut off the Bombers’ attacking plays for most of the night.
HAWTHORN VS WEST COAST – SUNDAY 1.10PM – UTAS STADIUM
The records both look equally poor but the performances haven’t been. The bet here is HAWTHORN AT THE LINE (-22.5). I think they beat the Eagles in essentially all areas and they should win easily. I like a few prop bets for the Hawks.
JAMES WORPEL 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.83
Worpel has hit this mark in his last three games and they were against two very good midfields in the Demons and the Bulldogs. Down in Tasmania you generally want to be with the midfielders who will be around the ball and this guy is the clearance King at the Hawks. I think he will find plenty of it and hit this mark with ease. He should be shorter.
LUKE BRUEST 3+ GOALS – $2.55/4+ GOALS – $5.30
He has kicked three goals on three occasions this season in the nine games he has played and the last time he played the Eagles he kicked six. They don’t have a match-up for him and I think the ball will be going into the forward fifty quickly and frequently which means he should at snag a few. Happy to be with him.
TYLER BROCKMAN 2+ GOALS – $2.50/3+ GOALS – $6
He can be inconsistent but he comes back into the team this week and I expect him to be at his best. This is his chance to cement his spot as the small forward of the Hawks and I think if he can replicate that Adelaide performance he will at least kick a couple here.
CARLTON VS COLLINGWOOD – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MCG
I like the BLUES H2H – $2.80 in this game. Both losses against the Pies came in the dying minutes last season and aside from last week, the Pies were winning without being dominant. I think the Carlton talls can win them the game and I’m happy to be with the Blues against the old arch-rival. I like some prop bets.
HARRY MCKAY 2+ GOALS – $1.87/3+ GOALS – $3.90/4+ GOALS – $9
It must be said that Big Harry has Darcy Moore’s number. He kicked four goals against them in 2021 and it was only inaccuracy that cost him a big day when kicking 2.3 in the final round last season. He has been battered from pillar to post in the media which I think has been unfair and I expect him to bounce back in a big way on the biggest of stages at the MCG on Sunday.
BEAU MCCREERY 2+ GOALS – $4.20
I think he will be the beneficiary of the pressure the Pies apply in the forward fifty this week. The Blues tend to really feel perceived pressure and I think the Magpie smalls might dine out on that if the Blues do panic. He has kicked two goals in four out of his nine games this season and he should be probably just under $3 in this market. This is a clear value.
JORDAN DE GOEY 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.95
He has finally found some consistency the Magpie enigma and I think he is what Carlton struggles against and that is strong and explosive midfielders. He has hit this mark in 50% of his games this season and I’m expecting him to only improve as the season goes on. He is a big game player and I think he will have a big day on Sunday.
GWS GIANTS VS ST KILDA – SUNDAY 4.40PM – GIANTS STADIUM
I think the bet of the round might be SAINTS AT THE LINE (-6.5) – $1.90. I think they will break even throughout the middle (or win it) and their defence is just too strong for the Giants. Max King is back which the Saints’ small forwards will love and I can’t see how they don’t beat the Giants. I like a prop bet.
JACK HIGGINS 2+ GOALS – $1.80/3+ GOALS – $3.40/4+ GOALS – $7.75
The Giants have struggled against quality small forwards this season and that is what Jack Higgins is. He has kicked nineteen goals this season and has kicked at least two goals in five out of the nine games this season. He is good in the air and clever on the ground and I can’t see how he doesn’t put a few snags through the big sticks on Sunday. He is a good bet.
So, those are my bets for this weekend? What are your best bets?
Think About What You Could Be Buying Instead. Set A Deposit Limit.