We head to Moonee Valley for this Saturday’s racing for a ten-race program. This week, we won’t be previewing every race but just the ones I have bet into and the horses I am confident have a good chance of winning. I will be back to previewing every race from next week onwards. The Valley raced horribly a fortnight ago and you essentially had to lead in order to win. The rail comes back to the True on Saturday which should make it fairer for those who get back in the field. As always though, look for those who settle near the speed and are good on tight turning circuits when betting at the Valley. Let’s get into it!
RACE 3 #2 CHANDON BURJ – 1.5U WIN @4.40
This horse is the bet here. She is a horse that seemingly loves this track and distance at the Valley and all her runs this time in have been encouraging. You can forgive her first two runs this preparation when the race shape was completely against her and she got caught in the wrong part of the track at Caulfield two-back. She got back to this track and distance last start and was one of the runs of the day considering the savage leaders’ bias that was the Moonee Valley track. She had clearly the fastest last 200m of the race there and from the inside gate (1) with Craig Newitt getting back on board who has won on her twice, I think she settles just behind the leaders and proves too strong late. Bet up.
RACE 4 #13 OCEANA BLUE – 0.5U WIN @$9
She might need some luck at a vital stage but her best is good enough and she is getting weight off essentially the whole field here. I am willing to forgive both runs this preparation. On resumption, she had trouble behind the gates and then just never kept up with them and she had no luck last start at Caulfield over 1400m when stuck behind a wall of horses. I think Carleen Hefel will be positive from the low draw (3) and if the splits come at the right time, she has more than enough ability to win a race like this. Her best figures measure up against the rest of this field and I think she is one of only a few with any upside in the race.
RACE 7 #2 MILFORD – 1.25U @$3.20
I am wary of Floating Artist here but I also think that horse had a gut-buster fresh and might regress second-up as has been the case for a large part of his career. Milford had excuses last start when narrowly losing to Flash Flood ($4.60 here). He was held up at a crucial time in the race whilst Flash Flood was off and gone and I think the roles will be reversed in this race. I think Milford will sit outside of Flash Flood this time around and therefore the result will be turned on its head. Mark Zahra jumps on and I’m happy to be with this horse and I think he is a deserved favourite.
RACE 9 #4 OMNI MAN – 2U WIN @$2.40
Inundation is talented but the Price camp are already talking about that horse having throat issues this preparation is never a good sign and this Waterhouse Gelding is in brilliant form. He sliced up a good horse in Passeggiata three-back before going up in grade last start (and up to 1100m) to beat Dragonstone and Sweet Ride ($6 here) at Rosehill. That form is the A1 form line coming into this race and from the rails draw she can jump, lead or sit just off the main danger, and then pull away. Back to 1000m is a big tick, the Valley looks like a tick, and Jordan Childs is also a tick. A deserved favourite.
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.