In a blink of an eye, the NRL finals are almost upon us with only 4 rounds left of the regular season!
There is no doubt the Penrith Panthers and Brisbane Broncos have been the standouts all year, with consistent form seeing them sit nicely at the top of the ladder. Most certainly there have been some surprise packages with the likes of the New Zealand Warriors and Newcastle Knights firming for a top 8 finish. The Sydney Roosters and Parramatta Eels had the biggest fall during the season, which now sees them having to win all games to mathematically make the top 8.
PRETENDERS OR CONTENDERS
North Queensland Cowboys – PRETENDERS
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During the pre-season people tipped the Cowboys to win the premiership, but the start of their season said otherwise. They looked as though they were no chance to make finals, but with such a slow start and getting absolutely flogged by the Wests Tigers 66-18 at Leichhardt Oval, you could put a line through the Cowboys. To their credit, they have managed to turn their season around and just last month they gave a return serve to the Wests Tigers beating them 74-0 at home!
The run to finals will be a tough one for North Queensland. They’ll be missing Valentine Holmes and Jeremiah Nani for some time. They finish off the regular season up against Penrith, at Penrith which is no doubt the hardest challenge on the NRL calendar. If they can win that game just before finals, it will bring significant confidence to North Queensland.
Parramatta Eels – PRETENDERS
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The runners-up from last season have no doubt had a mixed year. The departure of Reed Mahoney was always going to be a loss, with Parramatta playing around with the hooker role, going from Josh Hodgson to Brendan Hands to now Joey Lussick. Parramatta will be blessed to have star playmaker Dylan Brown back on the paddock after he was dealt with a serious off-field incident, seeing him sit on the sidelines, as he did his time.
Parramatta will certainly want to find some real hot form as their finals have come a month early for them, having to verse Brisbane, the Roosters, and Penrith to finish off the year. It’s very much a long shot for Parramatta. They know how to beat Penrith, but will they even get the chance to verse them? It seems like a bridge too far for the blue and gold.
Cronulla Sutherland Sharks – PRETENDERS
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The Sharks looked well and truly locked in for a top four spot mid-year until a few losses crept up on them. All year the Sharks have struggled to beat top eight teams, they comfortably beat bottom eight sides, but when the challenge gets hard it seems Cronulla will fault. A significant turning point I noticed with Cronulla was when Nicho Hynes returned from his first Origin game. It seemed the blame got put on Nicho for the defensive misread on Cameron Munster, who put the final nail in the coffin for the Blues at the Adelaide Oval. Coming back to club land a Nicho-led Cronulla looked off and it’s only now they’re finding their form again.
They verse the Titans and go on to play three top 8 teams which could be a blessing or curse for the Sharks. Time will tell.
South Sydney Rabbitohs – CONTENDERS
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At the beginning of the season, I had South Sydney in my top 4. I thought they would continually build and progress well into the finals. Reality is, Souths had a hot and cold season with the loss of Latrell Mitchell halfway through the season due to a calf injury. Souths flew down the ladder. They now look to finish with a top eight spot, but it all depends on which Souths rock up on the day. Last week against Cronulla they copped a disappointing loss, looking out of touch with many errors. It simply wasn’t their night.
If one team can make a charge to the finals though, I’m going to say Souths can. Their run home is Dragons, Newcastle, a BYE, and the Roosters. If the likes of Damien Cook, Latrell Mitchell, and Cody Walker get to devastating form, there is no doubt they can shake the competition and match it with the likes of Penrith or Brisbane.
Newcastle Knights – PRETENDERS
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Newcastle have been another surprise package for me as they definitely had a slow start to the season. The addition of Kalyn Ponga to the halves was an experiment that didn’t work. Thankfully Adam O’Brien pulled the pin on that and with Ponga sitting out of State of Origin with the move back to fullback, he has been in career-best form. Newcastle have certainly been flying in hot form with Bradman Best, Jackson Hastings and Dominic Young setting alight the side.
They finish with three home games to end the season, which will significantly boost the Knights’ chances of winning all their games, knowing that McDonald Jones Stadium will be a packed-out fortress. I see Newcastle making the eight, but when push comes to shove, I don’t see them doing a whole lot come finals.
Canberra Raiders – PRETENDERS
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Ricky’s Green Machine have had a mixed bag of results this season, who desperately need to get back to their winning ways before the finals approach. The news of Jack Wighton departing the club at season’s end for the Rabbitohs really fired up the Raiders and soared them into the top 8 collecting consecutive wins throughout the season.
They have to verse Melbourne and the Broncos before the finals which will be challenging games. Furthermore, their points differential of -74 could come back to bite them…
Melbourne Storm – CONTENDERS
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Melbourne have been hot and cold all year with their star players not performing at their all-time best. However, they have managed to still float in and around the top 4 this season. A fully fit Melbourne pack with Jahrome Hughes and Cameron Munster leading the side, they are sure to get into their winning ways.
After being off the football field for a year, it was nice to see the return of Ryan Papenhuyzen in the Queensland Cup. If he returns to the Melbourne squad, with some Bellamy magic I give the storm a sniff to be smokey’s to roll into the Grand Final.
New Zealand Warriors – CONTENDERS
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The Warriors have no doubt been the surprise package for everyone this season. The biggest signing during the off-season was picking up an assistant coach from Penrith, Andrew Webster. He has spectacularly turned this team around overnight into premiership contenders. The Warriors have a nice run home versing teams sitting in the bottom 8 and they play 3 out of 4 games in New Zealand. The form of Shaun Johnson has been so good to watch. It’s the SJ of old and with the Dally Ms around the corner, he has got half his hand around the medal.
On their day, the Warriors can beat anyone, and I can see them shaking teams come finals time. Their position in the top four is most certainly locked in. Up the Wahs!
Brisbane Broncos – CONTENDERS
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The Broncos have been my favourite team to watch this year as they continue to deliver exciting rugby league football. As soon as Reece Walsh signed to return home to Brisbane, I knew he would bring the full package, the fresh kid on the scene who has no quit in him, is always there to assist or score a try. He’s got a bit of Billy Slater about him, this kid! The likes of Payne Haas, Ezra Mam, Patrick Carrigan, and Adam Reynolds are enough to get Bronx fans excited about finals football.
After falling short in ninth position in 2022, the pain still burns for the Brisbane boys. I see Broncos there on Grand Final day.
Sydney Roosters – PRETENDERS
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The Roosters have no doubt been the most disappointing team this season. Hopes were high and many tipped them to be there on grand final day, it looks as though they won’t be making the top eight. Nothing went right for the chook’s year, with too many chops and changes in the halves by Trent Robinson, there was never clear consistency. I think the biggest mistake was dropping Sam Walker. The young playmaker is still finding his stride in the squad. On the back of that having Joseph Sua’ali’i play centre was another crucial error.
After beating Manly last week, it’s now or never for the Roosters who need to win all their remaining games by significant margins and hope other teams lose. It would be a mathematical masterclass. They’ve been well off the mark for Roosters standards this season. Time to look towards 2024.
Penrith Panthers – CONTENDERS
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The Panthers have once again been the best team all season and most certainty have the blueprint to beat any team, on any day. Just when you think 2023 could be the downfall after losing their key playmaker in Api Koroisau, Penrith did not change and continued its winning ways. Penrith’s nursery continues to bring through younger players such as Soni Luke and Sunia Turuva who have made a name for themselves, cementing their position in the squad.
Come finals time I expect it to be déjà vu for the Penrith boys. Timing their run right will be pivotal for the Panthers to be there on grand final day for the fourth consecutive year. At this rate, it’s Penrith’s premiership to lose.