We head to Caulfield this Saturday and we can finally smell Spring in the Air as there are three Group races on the program, headlined by the Group Two P.B Lawrence Stakes where Doncaster and All Star Mile winner Mr Brightside is an even money favourite. The Quezette Stakes is headlined by Skirt the Law and Charm Stone returning and the Vain Stakes sees Cylinder and Little Brose clash again – this time as three year old’s. Let’s get into the racing!
RACE 1: BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP, 1400M
STEEL JIMMY (11) is fast and will want to cross from a tricky gate (11) and most likely leads. Expect SEAFIELD ROAD (3) to also show some speed and try and be handy, whilst the likes of HARD REALITY (1), ONSLAUGHT (4), MAGNETIC PRINCE (10) and LULU DARLING (7) will try and hold their spots from good gates.
FIRST MATE ($4.60) is in career-best form and is a deserved favourite here. He is going to need some luck from the low draw (4) considering he will be at best midfield in a big field but if the gaps come at the right time he most likely wins. His run two-back on a Heavy track at Werribee was very good when flashing home late to beat Demando and Prancing Queen (both subsequent winners) and his effort last start was terrific against better horses than what he faces here. They went 8L slower than standard to the 800m which made him over race and considering that I thought he was terrific late when recording the ninth fastest 400m-200m split of the meeting. He drops in grade here (and admittedly goes up in weight) and with any luck, he will be hard to beat.
STEEL JIMMY ($7.50) is the one with upside. He was terrific on debut on the Synthetic when setting a hectic tempo when leading all the way and he stepped up to BM64 level in his second start and repeated the dose, again on the synthetic, and could have won by further if Jarrod Fry wasn’t soft on him late. He will cross them and lead again here and I don’t think stepping up to the 1400m should be an issue. Obviously going from Synthetic to a BM70 on a Saturday is a big rise in grade but I think they have found a very weak city race here. Could be a very good horse – we don’t really know.
MAGNETIC PRINCE ($8.50) has a sense of timing about him fourth-up. He was tough fresh when winning and he hasn’t lost any admirers since that with two solid outings at Sandown. He will get the run of the race and can run well.
BELTHIL ($6) has upside and did beat First Mate last preparation. His run at Flemington three-back when 2L away from Brung King and Private Jumbo is definitely good enough to be competitive here and he has had some excuses in his last two starts. With some even luck from the gate he is a chance.
TIP: First Mate will be hard to beat with luck. 0.75U WIN #2 FIRST MATE @$4.60.
RACE 2: FILLIES & MARES BENCHMARK 84 HANDICAP, 1400M
STARLIGHT SCOPE (2) is the designated leader from the middle gate with a good front-running jockey on board. BEOUR BAY (6) will try and cross to hold a spot and the likes of HELL HOUND (5) and ANAHITA (4) will try and hold a spot from good gates. LIFE LESSONS (1) is the interesting runner from the map first-up. They need to decide to either cross from the tricky gate (7) or take a neutral position.
LIFE LESSONS ($3.10) is the best horse in the race. I think she is skinny enough at $3 considering she is first-up at 1400m off the one soft 750m jump out but her best would clearly win this race. I don’t think she handled the short break when coming back late in the Spring but her form a the start of the Spring last year was excellent when beating the likes of Belle Et Riche and Wrote to Arataki in fast time. Her preparation ended when finishing 1.25L off Nugget in the Lord Stakes and that horse was G1 placed subsequently. She brings the best ratings and if she is ready to go fresh, she should be winning, I just think she has bigger fish to fry and I hate the first-up/1400m off a soft jump out set up.
MOVADER ($10) might be the value. She was very good two-back on Heavy ground and she probably should have finished closer to Beour Bay ($4.40) and Hell Hound ($10) last start. She has avoided the Handicapper here and she should get the run of the race from the perfect draw (4).
LA VINA ($14) was terrific last start when beating Beour Bay after she clocked the fourth latest 400m-200m split of the meeting and the fastest final 200m of the day. She was also very good on resumption this preparation. The Bedggood stable have her back to her best and if the pattern is back and wide, she will be flashing home.
TAJNEED ($5.50) arrives here third-up and could be ready to fire. It was a strange run last start over 1500m when she took an age to get going. Her ratings are very good and the main form lines coming into this race aren’t strong so I can understand those in her corner.
TIP: Leaving this one alone. #1 Life Lessons on top @$3.10 without much confidence.
RACE 3: BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP, 1200M
Expect RATTLE AND BANG (4) to ping the gates and lead. CALICO JACK (12), ANILA (11), and STRIPPED BACK (14) will also try and hold their spot and be handy. HOLYMANZ (3), and SHOVE OVER (6) will have to make a decision on whether to cross from wide gates and sitting on the speed or taking their medicine and going back. Expect the rest to be midfield or worse.
ANILA ($7) goes on top in an open race. I thought his return was solid down the straight at Flemington and I think it was a perfect run to prepare him for this race where they should go quicker out in front. His run at the end of his last preparation behind Flash Flood and Faretti was very good and from the inside peg (1) he should get a dream run throughout. His run in transit might win him the race here.
SHOVE OVER ($23) is the blowout chance. He won three from five last preparation and one of those was a very good win over British Columbia and Suparazi at Flemington. Like Anila, I loved his end of prep run in the same race when he sat 3WNC the trip and still battled on to finish just 2L away. He was just even fresh but I expect to see a big improvement second-up and back around a bend.
VA VIA ($4) was brilliant two-back when winning by 5L at this track and distance but she does draw terribly here (15). The clock didn’t back up what the eye told us two-back and she had a dream run when winning last start in much lesser grade. This is harder, she is either going to sit wide or be a mile back, and even though she is some chance, I couldn’t back her at $4.
CLIMBING STAR ($6) needs a hot speed but might be the best horse in the race. She is going to be better over further which is obvious but she has shown she can sprint quickly fresh. If they overdo it in front, she could be the one flashing home out wide to beat them.
TIP: I could have something small on Shove Over. 0.25U WIN #6 SHOVE OVER @$23.
RACE 4: MARES BENCHMARK 84 HANDICAP, 1100M
Expect VIVIANE (3) and RIVER NOIRE (11) to kick up from good marbles and settle in the first few. DIAMONDS IN THE SKY (7) and SKIDAMARINK (11) will also try and cross from wide gates and settle in a handy position along with YELLOW SAM (13). BOUND FOR HOME (1) and WAVERIDER BUOY (4) should settle a touch closer today considering the rest of the field are back markers.
BOUND FOR HOME ($9) seems like an easy bet to have at close enough to double figures. Her form as a three year old reads well for this. She was a long second to Ghaanati (whilst beating home Dusse) in just her second race start and her win in the Quezette Stakes rated incredibly well for the standard. She has had a long spell since then and has trialled brilliantly leading into this first-up assignment. I think she is ready to fire fresh and from the ideal draw (5) she should camp midfield and be able to run on strongly.
WAVERIDER BUOY ($3.50) is the main danger. She was brilliant three starts ago when getting up on the line to beat Hi Dubai at Rosehill and she hasn’t had the best of luck in regard to how her last couple of races have been run considering she gets back and runs on. She has done well to finish second in both of those races and I can see her settling a touch closer today. She seems to handle the Melbourne way okay and she is a deserved favourite. For her pattern though in a very handy field, I think $3.50 is under the odds.
SKIDAMARINK ($7) is a very likeable horse and she has plenty of talent. She has shown she is very versatile in the way that she races. In her Maiden win at Sale she sprinted incredibly quickly and then at Sandown she led at a break neck speed and had the ability to keep sprinting off it when winning by 4L. She has hardly put a foot wrong so far and the Freedman camp have a big opinion of her.
RIVER NOIRE ($8.50) is the best of the rest. She was flat on resumption down the straight at Flemington but I just don’t think she is either a straight horse or a horse that fires fresh so I am willing to forgive that. She gets in well at the weights, draws to get the run of the race and could bounce back hard here.
TIP: Bound for Home looks the bet here. 0.5U WIN #1 BOUND FOR HOME @$9.
RACE 5: BENCHMARK 84 HANDICAP, 1400M
Very interesting map. Little to no speed engaged here so I think the likes of PAPERBOY (12) and CRESTANI (14) to roll forward whilst the likes of ROYAL MILE (3) will sit handy. The rest of the field are noted back markers and some of them are resuming so it is anyone’s guess as to what their intention will be.
CARINI ($5.50) goes on top here. Brae Sokolski paid 925k to get this horse across from France and the spruik on him suggests he could be a possible Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup contender. His form in France has been franked since he left and I loved the way he hit the line in a recent trial over 800m at Flemington. They ran quick time in that trial and he was going past some good horses in Little Brose and Midwest across the line. He runs well fresh and he draws nicely (9) to tag on the back of one and flash home late. This is a good race but I think he is a very talented horse.
AMENABLE ($3.90) frightens me and is the obvious danger. He has sprinted well when fresh in the past and his run in the Group One Australian Guineas behind Legarto and Attrition was terrific. He was impacted by the fall in that race and it probably cost him 2-3L. I think he would have won without the interference. He will get back from the wide gate (13) but he has trialled well and can be storming home late.
ROYAL MILE ($14) can fill a hole but I think the race is between the top two. He draws perfectly (5) to get the run of the race and there was enough to like about his first-up run down the straight. He carries a big weight but he can run well with a nice run.
BLOW IN ($7.50) has come back well. He was upper fresh when running on strongly behind Discerning and his win at Sandown was terrific behind some handy types last start. I don’t think he is as good as the top two in the market but he should be running on well late and can run a place.
TIP: Carini is still at an each-way quote which is good enough for me. 0.5U EACH WAY #8 CARINI @$5.50.
RACE 6: REGAL ROLLER STAKES, LISTED LEVEL, 1200M
BANDERSNATCH (1) and BOOGIE DANCER (9) will kick up from low draws to try and lead/sit on the speed in a race without much speed engaged in it. That should allow SAVANNAH CLOUD (6) and CHASSIS (5) to cover without many issues. IT’SOURTIME (3) might have the option to settle a touch closer today. The rest of the field will be midfield at best. DETONATOR JACK (7) will be spotting them a big start.
SAVANNAH CLOUD ($8.50) looked the overs to my eye and I think he will start shorter. I think his form behind Munhamek and Pounding last preparation read well for a race like this and he beat home some handy types at G3 level at the end of his last preparation when second to Scallopini at Flemington. He gets in carrying a low weight compared to what he is used to (54kgs) and he has had a couple of solid hit outs leading into this first-up run. He should be able to cross them relatively easily and his best figures would see him go close here.
DETONATOR JACK ($5.50) will be better over further and the only knock is the 1200m fresh, but it is a genuine query around him. I think he is probably the best horse in this field and he does race well fresh, evidenced by him beating Nugget first-up last preparation, all but over 1400m. The Yendall and Maher & Eustace stable combine together well and I think he will be flashing home; it is just a matter of whether he can get there in time.
BANDERSNATCH ($5.50) goes okay fresh but I don’t like this set up with just one soft trial leading into a first-up run. Historically that hasn’t been a successful route to take with this horse. Those in his camp would say he generally resumes over a touch further and that he most likely leads at a slow speed and gets the run of the race which is also a fair argument. If the track is playing up and in, he will start favourite. He can win, but there are enough worries for me to suggest staying out.
THUNDER BEAUTY ($6) seems under the odds. Yes, the overseas form reads solid enough, but I hate imports fresh when they have a historically average first-up record overseas. Williams and Maher & Eustace always have to be respected considering they are striking at 22%. She will get a nice run if they have the intent on her, but I would prefer to learn about her here more than anything.
TIP: Savannah Cloud will be set for these early Spring races. 0.5U WIN #6 SAVANNAH CLOUD @$8.50.
RACE 7: QUEZETTE STAKES, GROUP THREE FOR 3-Y-O, 1100M
It will be a charge of the light brigade here. TIZ ENUF (10), ULANOVA (1), and SKIRT THE LAW (5) will all try and hold spots from low draws. SICILIAN (14), IPHIMEDIA (15), and SHESALLSHENANIGANS (8) will try and cross from wide gates. Expect CHARM STONE (3) to try and find a spot potentially in the 3WWC line. The rest will be midfield or back in the field but should get their chance to run over them.
SHESALLSHENANIGANS ($9) was terrific at the end of last preparation when winning both the Vobis Gold Rush by 3L and the Sires Showdown by 4L. Her trial leading into this first-up run was very good and I think she draws perfectly (7) for Blaike McDougall to be able to assess the race in the first 200m before deciding on where he wants to go. It is a hard race and she represents some value.
CHARM STONE ($3.50) is slightly under the odds but also has a good chance. She was fantastic when winning Ottawa Stakes as a juvenile and she had excuses last preparation with throat issues when finishing 3L away in the Blue Diamond Prelude. She was spelled after that, has trialled well, and has a good pattern. Lane and the Price & Kent stable strike at 28% which also has to be respected.
SKIRT THE LAW ($4.20) might have just had enough at the end of last preparation and her starts before that were fantastic, evident by her Magic Millions win where she had plenty on the rest of that field. If she wasn’t going any good, they wouldn’t have brought her down here and she draws low (1) which should give her a nice run providing they show intent early. As good a chance as any here.
TIZ ENUF ($10) was outstanding on resumption at the Valley over 1000m when winning by 3.75L against a handy enough field. Her debut win was very good last preparation but there are some queries on whether she can sustain a fast run 1100m-1200m race considering her poor run in Adelaide last preparation. She draws perfectly (4) to lead them up and we will find a lot out about her here.
TIP: This is the hardest race on the program. I’d prefer to learn how they the juveniles have come back this season. Leaving this one alone.
RACE 8: VAIN STAKES, GROUP THREE, 3-Y-O, 1100M
Small field here. OURBOROS (5) and KRAKARIB (3) are the likely leaders and I expect CYLINDER (2) to camp on the back of those with the likes of VEECEE (7) not far behind him. LITTLE BROSE (1) and I AM UNSTOPPABLE (4) will likely settle at the rear.
CYLINDER ($1.70) goes on top but is very, very short. He had a terrific 2YO season when winning the Todman over Red Resistance before running second in the Golden Slipper behind Shinzo. I think he just gets a perfect map here and I prefer this horse over 1100m than his two main dangers. He should get the run of the race, Blake Shinn goes on, and he should be ready to fire fresh. Just needs to handle the Melbourne way of going.
LITTLE BROSE ($5.50) is the danger. I think he should be a touch shorter but I understand why some are against him considering he is going to get a long way back and he is probably better over further. I can’t help but think of his first-up run over this distance last preparation when he ran on to finish second behind Barber and think that might happen again here. He will be strong late.
I AM UNSTOPPABLE ($9) and VEECEE ($10) both showed plenty of ability as juveniles. It wouldn’t surprise to see them take a big step up in grade this preparation but it is hard to back them on what they have shown so far compared to the two more favoured runners.
TIP: Cylinder on top but I would need even money to be betting. Leaving this one alone unless the market changes closer to the jump.
RACE 9: P.B. LAWRENCE STAKES, GROUP TWO, 1400M
The feature arrives. The map depends on scratchings really. If the emergencies don’t get a run expect BUFFALO RIVER (10) to lead them up with the likes of MR BRIGHTSIDE (1) and TUVALU (3) trying to cross the field and sit handy. The rest of the map is hard to predict. POUNDING (9) might settle closer and there is a chance for PINSTRIPED (11) to settle closer from the low draw as well.
MR BRIGHTSIDE ($2) is one of the best horses in the country and is a deserved favourite. He was a Doncaster and All Star Mile winner last preparation and his trial leading into this suggests he is ready to go fresh. The lack of speed in the race should mean he gets a nice run from the gate (10) and his trial leading into this was excellent when winning by nearly 10L. He has a poor first-up record which is a worry and why I couldn’t take even money for him, but I understand why some people would. Clear top selection.
ATTRITION ($8.50) will need luck but is the main danger. He was simply magnificent last preparation when winning two from four and he arguably should have won both the C.S Hayes Stakes and the Australian Guineas when he was trapped 3WNC the entirety and only got nailed late. Legarto is all the rave but I think this horse is better than him and he is proven to go well fresh. He will be flashing home late.
TUVALU ($8) goes well fresh and is a Group One winner. I think the other two I have mentioned are simply better horses, but one could suggest that he will be ready to fire fresh whilst the other two have their sights set on bigger targets later in the Spring. The barrier (16) isn’t horrible considering the lack of speed in the race and it wouldn’t surprise to see him winning.
PINSTRIPED ($10) has trialled up very well and found form against inferior opposition last preparation. If he can settle closer there’s nothing saying he can’t fill a hole.
TIP: Something small on Attrition here. 0.3U WIN/0.7U PLACE #15 ATTRITION @$8.50.
RACE 10: BENCHMARK 100 HANDICAP, 1600M
I don’t think many of these emergencies will get a start. Expect DENY KNOWLEDGE (14) to lead and try and get some of these resuming stayers off the bit early. SIBAAQ (7) should kick up to sit handy and there is a chance for ULYSSES (13) to settle closer from the inside peg. RIGHT YOU ARE (1) should be just behind them. The rest will be midfield or worse.
DENY KNOWLEDGE ($5.50) is an easy bet to have. On resumption, last preparation she was a neck away from Savannah Cloud which reads well for this and her second-up run when finishing 1L away from My Whisper after leading by plenty early will be the same tactics they will use here today. I think they will jump, lead at a good tempo (without going too hectic) and I think some of these stayers will be outsprinted throughout. Her trials leading into this have been terrific, she draws perfectly, only carries 53kgs, and the Kent & Hefel combination strike at 25%. Betting up here.
ULYSSES ($17) seems big odds. Since going to Julius Sandhu he has went to a new peak. He was brilliant when making up about 10L on the turn to win at this track over 1400m on resumption and he had the best closing splits in a leader-dominated race last start at Flemington. He is crying out for the mile now, he gets it, and from the inside peg he can settle a touch closer in the run. If luck comes, he can be winning at a big quote.
BERKELEY SQUARE ($4.80) is too short at the current quote but can run well. He ran home in near identical splits to Ulysses in that Flemington race on resumption and he should only improve second-up. He maps shockingly though from the widest gate (18) and I just think he might get too far back. Probably needs even further as well. There are a few knocks.
RIGHT YOU ARE ($8) can run well fresh and is the best of the rest. His trials have been good and he maps to get a nice run.
TIP: Two bet play here. 1.25U WIN #14 DENY KNOWLEDGE @$5.50/0.75U WIN #13 ULYSSES @$17.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 1 #2 FIRST MATE 0.75U WIN @$4.80
RACE 3 #6 SHOVE OVER 0.25U WIN @$23
RACE 4 #1 BOUND FOR HOME 0.5U WIN @$9
RACE 5 #8 CARINI 0.5U EACH WAY @$5.50
RACE 6 #6 SAVANNAH CLOUD 0.5U WIN @$8.50
RACE 9 #15 ATTRITION 0.3U WIN/0.7U PLACE @$8.50
RACE 10 #14 DENY KNOWLEDGE 1.25U WIN @$5.50/#13 ULYSSES 0.75U WIN @$17
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