We head to Caulfield this week for the first Group One in the Victorian racing season. The Memsie Stakes is the headline event where three of the best horses in Australia will do battle in Mr Brightside, I Wish I Win, and Alligator Blood over 1400m. The supporting cast is led by three Group Three races which should be good form references for races like the Coolmore and Guineas later on in the Spring. When the rail is in the true position, we generally see fair racing here so map/tempo will be the important factor. Let’s get into it!
RACE 1: BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP, 1600M
They will go at a decent tempo here which should give every horse their chance. Expect RED PHANTOM (4) to cross from a wide gate and try to sit on the speed along with BLAZERRO (1) and FIRST LIGHT (3). RHINOCEROS (7) gets the blinkers on and is the likely leader from the inside peg. GEORGIE GET MAD (11), SMOKIN’ PRINCESS (13), EYE OF THE EAGLE (6) should get nice runs behind them. The rest of the field will settle back and try and run over them.
ACCLIMATISE ($15) will need to take the step up to this level here but I think he has found a weak Saturday race and he definitely has upside as a 4YO with just the five starts to his name. He had excuses when trotted on twice on resumption at Bendigo and then his last 400m at Seymour last start put the writing on the wall for him to win better races this preparation. He put 5L on third there, and his trials leading up to this preparation showed that he was finally ready to deliver on his potential. He goes from 1300m – 1600m third-up which is a recipe for success for most horses and the Coffey and Fliedner combination are a good one to follow when they come to the city. He is over the odds.
EYE OF THE EAGLE ($7) maps to get the perfect run which might be a deciding factor in this race considering they are all of a similar level. He ran into a couple of good ones two-back at Sandown over 1400m and then got a lovely run last start when beating Brazen Kingdom over 1500m. He gets around Caulfield well and I think he is the one the punters will come for late. He will start shorter than $7. Has the ability to win a race like this.
ASPEN COLORADO ($4.60) is a bit short considering he maps to be stuck on the rail and a long way back. I think he had every right to finish strongly at both Ballarat and Caulfield and he was the luckless runner at the Valley behind Crackerjack Prince last start. I don’t really like the jockey appointment and whilst he might be the best horse in the field, he is going to need everything to go his way.
BOH RAP ($8.50) will get a nice run and is looking for four in a row here. He can fill a hole.
TIP: Playing the value here in the first. 0.3U EACH WAY #10 ACCLIMATISE @$15.
RACE 2: BENCHMARK 78, HANDICAP, 1400M
I don’t think they will go overly quick here which should suit those up on the speed. RAMBLER REBEL (8) is the only noted front-runner in the field but I doubt they will want to go too quick first-up. RHEINBERG (14) will kick up from the inside draw to be on the speed, whilst the likes of NETANYAHU (15), JACK OF IT (5), SHOVE OVER (9) will be behind them. The rest of the field will want to settle around midfield.
RHEINBERG ($3.50) is a deserved favourite here. The 1400m seems to be his pet trip and he has come back in career best form winning two from two. He destroyed them at Donald when winning by 4L and then went to Sandown when beating Place of Gold with relative ease. He draws perfectly (1) to punch up and either lead or sit just behind the leaders in a race without much tempo in it on paper and his rivals are probably going to settle back in the field, so the map position is key. He is an easy bet to have.
PRESSER ($8) has won two from three this preparation and is in terrific form. He slaughtered them at Geelong first-up and then repeated the dose at Sandown over a mile when beating Tasman Park who is a City class horse. He might be benefited by the sit/sprint nature of this race if what looks likely on paper transpires because he has a brilliant 400m sprint on him. He will need some luck but is a danger.
CHORLTON LANE ($4.20) is a threat but looks under the odds to my eye. He gets back and has drawn low which will put him in a very awkward position unless the tactics change dramatically and whilst he has won at these distances in Australia, I feel like he is looking for longer at this stage of the preparation. He can win, but there is plenty against him and at $4 it isn’t worth finding out.
ROGUE ROCKER ($9) has been in brilliant form since coming to Victoria and his last start run behind Netanyahu had “back me next start” all over it. If he stayed in the mid-week programs, I would have been on him but he rises in grade here and does need to produce a career best figure to win.
TIP: If we can get $4 for Rheinberg I will be on him. If not, I am watching and learning here.
RACE 3: BENCHMARK 84 HANDICAP, 1400M
They will go slowly here with no noted front runners in the race. Expect NUNTHORPE (8) to cross from the widest gate and most likely lead/sit OSL. BEOUR BAY (4) will kick up from the inside peg to sit on the speed and behind them will be GIRL (10). BELLE ET RICHE (2) can be closer in the run here.
BELLE ET RICHE ($3.50) is an easy bet to have here. She should have won at least a couple more races last preparation after striking interference/being caught wide against some quality horses like Life Lessons and Wrote to Arataki and in her only run when things went her way, she beat a handy field at Flemington over this distance. Her first-up run this preparation was excellent over 1200m at the Valley when she recorded the race fastest last 200m behind Maximillius and she gets all the favours here. She rises to the 1400m which is her ideal distance, she draws nicely to do no work, and she generally runs well second-up. With even luck I think she wins.
NUNTHORPE ($3.40) sat on a hot speed (7L faster than standard to the 800m) and peaked over the last 50m on resumption when losing to Extreme Step ($9 here) . She shouldn’t have many issues crossing from the wide gate (10) considering the anticipated lack of speed in the race and she does have a very good sprint if it does become a sit and sprint affair. She drops 7kgs off that run and her main danger is giving her 6kgs in the run so if she is ever going to take the next step, this is probably a race she needs to win. They need to show intent from the jump.
BEOUR BAY ($6.50) will have to produce a career peak to be winning this but the Nichols yard generally keep them improving even through the longest of preparations. She likes this set up and will roll forward and isn’t without a hope.
YELLOW SAM ($5.50) was good at this track last start over 1100m after travelling 4WNC the trip. She will get back in the run but she does possess a brilliant turn of foot and isn’t out of it.
TIP: Sticking with the proven quantity. 1U WIN #2 BELLE ET RICHE @$3.50.
RACE 4: BENCHMARK 78 HANDICAP, 2000M
I think they will go slow here and the front runners will try and stack them up and then kick away. COURT DEEP (2) and THORIN (4) will roll forward along with SENOR UNO (7). The rest of the map is a land mine to try and figure out. PITCHANUN (13), CHANDON BURJ (12), FRIGID (14) all have the option to be handy.
FRIGID ($4.80) gets in with 53.5kgs after the claim from Tatum Bull and you cannot knock the form. She was first past the post three-back at Sandown before winning last start to make it two from three. There is a slight query around her not having a run for a month but I think she has the class edge over these.
CHANDON BURJ ($10) is a danger. Her best is definitely good enough to win a race like this and she does map to get a nice run. 2000m is the query but she has been hitting the line hard over a mile and I don’t think they will make it into a staying test.
COURT DEEP ($19) will dictate and doesn’t have to go as quick out in front here as he did last start at Flemington over this trip. I thought that run had plenty of merit and Caulfield might suit his racing pattern better. He can surprise at big odds and lead all the way.
THE NEPHEW ($10) needs everything to go his way in races but does have the ability to win a race like this.
TIP: Leaving this one alone. Another disappointing middle distance Saturday race.
RACE 5: H.D.F MCNIEL STAKES, GROUP THREE, 3-Y-O, 1200M
I think they will go at a moderate speed here which should allow every runner a chance if they are good enough. LEGACIES (12) and LE ZEBRA (4) will come across from wide gates to sit on the speed. COINCIDE (7) will kick up from a middle draw to most likely lead whilst HEDGED (11) and DEADLY PRESS (10) have the option to settle close to the leading pack from inside barriers. BARBER (2) is the fly in the ointment. He could settle close to the speed or a mile back. I can’t see him winning if he is dragged back.
HEDGED ($8) looks like the value runner. He was caught in the widest lane at the Valley on resumption on a day where the rails were on fire and still managed to run the fastest last 200m of the meeting which indicated he was in for a good preparation. He then went to a Seymour maiden and made a mockery of them when winning by 4.5L and recording brilliant closing splits. He draws perfectly (3) to be able to settle just behind the speed and then peel off them and flash home late. The 1200m is a big tick and I am not convinced that the proven performers have come back better as three-year-olds.
LEGACIES ($5.50) is a danger. She is the only filly in the field and she might do the girls proud. She sat on the speed and kicked clear to win on debut at Cranbourne before going to Sandown in the Anzac Day Stakes and winning by 4.5L after she sat on a very hot speed out in front. She has trialled well leading into this first-up run, she will camp on speed again, and she has the most upside based on raw ability.
BARBER ($3.80) seems under the odds based off a couple of just even trials in Sydney. When they got to their Grand Final Little Brose was far too good for him and he failed after that in the Golden Slipper and the Kindergarten Stakes where he was a $3.90 favourite. He has won fresh previously which is a tick, he should be fit enough to run well, but I just don’t think he has come back as well. Could be wrong.
LITTLE BROSE ($7) would want to improve off that first- up run where he was just out sprinted. There is nothing saying he can’t and he does strike me as a type who will appreciate Caulfield. Not the worst but I think he will be at his best over 1400m+ this preparation.
TIP: I like Hedged here. 0.5U EACH WAY #11 HEDGED @$8/$2.50.
RACE 6: HEATHERLIE HANDICAP, 1700M
There is absolutely no speed in this race on paper. SIR LUCAN (11) is a front runner but hasn’t really raced fresh over 1700m so it is hard to know whether he will still have the early toe. BUSTER BASH (5) will come across from a wide gate and settle forward. JIMMY THE BEAR (15) has the race fitness and therefore probably needs to push forward. The rest of the map is a raffle as most are back markers.
JIMMY THE BEAR ($5) is deep into his preparation now and is rock hard fit whilst most of his rivals are either first-up or still searching for longer. He beat a couple of very good horses in Right You Are and Berkeley Square last start and he also loves this track with two wins from five tries whilst only being unplaced once. I think he will roll forward and then have the best turn of foot/ability to sustain a turn of foot here. He should be winning this.
MAKRAM ($12) draws horrifically but was the best of the closers in the same race whilst fresh. Craig Williams will have to be at his very best here considering he has drawn barrier eighteen but his trials and then the first-up effort indicate that he has come back in good order.
EMISSARY ($7) won this race last year and does fire fresh. He doesn’t have as may favours here as he did in last years race but he was only half a length off Cascadian the last time he was first-up. He can run on strongly.
SIR LUCAN ($10) is the noted front runner in the race and in a race devoid of speed you always have to be wary of them. He draws low (2) and can boot up to lead and then dictate terms with a good front running rider in Timmy Clark on board.
TIP: I am still undecided on whether I am backing #15 Jimmy The Bear here. He goes on top but wait to see the pattern first.
RACE 7: W.W COCKRAM STAKES, GROUP THREE, 1200M
I think they will go quick early and then really slacken the tempo once they have found their positions. DANCE TO DUBAI (8) and PARISAL (2) will come across from awkward barriers to sit 1-2 in the run most likely. C’EST MAGIQUE (9) has shown speed in the trials leading up to this and draws low, as does WROTE TO ARATAKI (4). BENEDETTA (7) is the interesting runner. She draws awkwardly (9) and can either elect to roll forward and make her own luck or drift right back to near last. I doubt they will want to chance being caught wide with no cover around midfield.
PARISAL ($3.80) shouldn’t have much trouble crossing from the wide gate and I thought her return was terrific up in Sydney when she was caught 3WNC yet still managed to pick up a speedy customer in Queen of the Ball in the shadows of the post. I thought her run at the end of last preparation on a Heavy track at G3 level when second to Magic Time was one of a very good horse and I think she is just getting underrated compared to the favourite. Not sure I’m betting into the race but she goes on top.
BENEDETTA ($2.70) is the main danger. There is as big boom around this Mare and she is living up to it by winning five from seven. She was simply brilliant last preparation when winning the Inglis Sprint at Flemington and she smashed the clock on that occasion. She beat a weak field on resumption and does need to improve here if she is to win, but she generally runs well second-up and her best figures win this race. I am not sure she has come back as good as she did last preparation, however.
C’EST MAGIQUE ($5) hasn’t been seen since last Spring when a distant second to In Secret in the G1 Coolmore Stakes. She beat home another very good horse in Buenos Noches that day and the way she has trialled leading into this point to her only having improved over the break. She draws well (2) and if they show intent from the jump, she can cause a small upset.
LACED UP HEELS ($12) was forcedback to the slower section first-up at this track and generally improves second-up. If they overdo it in front, she will be the one flashing home late.
TIP: I am going to watch and learn here. There is plenty of questions around most runners and we won’t know the answers until after the race.
RACE 8: THE HEATH, 1100, GROUP THREE, 1100M
The tempo will be genuine without being too over the top. On paper, it looks as though every horse will get their chance. MIDWEST (9) and ASFOORA (6) will bounce out from good draws and put themselves on the speed. GENERATION (7) is another that will bounce from the low draw and be handy. STARRY LEGEND (8) will come across and sit on the speed whilst the likes of MAGIC TIME (13) and KALLOS have decisions to make from tricky barriers about whether they go forward or back.
ASFOORA ($3) looks set to avenge her luckless preparation last Autumn. She jumped poorly on resumption in the G1 Oakleigh Plate and still managed to finish within a length of Uncommon James, before being a certainty beaten in the G1 Galaxy in Sydney when she never got a crack at them in the straight. She then went way too hard in the Quokka in Western Australia and it was amazing that she finished so close considering the speed at which they went in that race. She trialled like a superstar leading into this and she loves this Track and distance winning twice from three tries. The Everest may await if she can put a couple of wins together early on in the preparation.
MAGIC TIME ($7) is full of talent. She has won three from four and not many horses go from a maiden to a Listed winner to a G3 winner in the space of three runs which shows the quality she has. Parisal is a horse I rate very highly and she put pay to that horse last preparation. She has trialled up well leading into this and if she can get the right run, she is a big chance. The sky is the limit for this horse.
SIGH ($7) produced a career best run last start at this track and trip when holding off Mileva to win the John Monash Stakes at G3 level. She maps to get a nice run behind a genuine speed and even though she will have to improve again, there is nothing suggesting she can’t. She can run well.
KALLOS ($10) won three from four last preparation and won a recent trial leading into this. Include him in the exotics.
TIP: Pretty keen to bet up here. 2U WIN #6 ASFOORA @$3.
RACE 9: MEMSIE STAKES, GROUP ONE, 1400M
Expect a genuine tempo here. MR BRIGHTSIDE (1) and ALLIGATOR BLOOD (3) will have to push forward and cross from wide positions. ANNAVISTO (14) will kick up to sit on the speed. BANDERSNATCH (8) will also try and push forward and make it difficult for the two favourites with the wide barriers. PRINCESS GRACE (13) and OSIPENKO (10) have the option to settle more forward from the inside two barriers.
PRINCESS GRACE ($8) is the value. She generally needs a first-up hit out to find her best and that first-up run was terrific when beaten by 0.3L to one of Australia’s best milers in Fangirl. She did have a nice run there but she maps to get a similar run here from a brilliant barrier (3). She should camp behind the likes of Annavisto and Alligator Blood and if the run appears at the top of the straight the likes of I Wish I Win might be spotting her too big of a start. She is undefeated from four starts second-up and she should get a dry track which is where she excels. She is an easy each way bet.
MR BRIGHTSIDE ($4) is a deserving favourite. He was simply brilliant in the Autumn when winning the All Star Mile and Doncaster Handicap and he returned as well as ever first-up in the P.B Lawrence at this track and trip a fortnight ago. The concern is the wide gate (15) but I think he will be able to blend into the race and settle handy here. He doesn’t run a bad race and I think he is the best miler in the country and he goes well over the 1400m too.
ALLIGATOR BLOOD ($5.50) can settle closer and probably has too from the wide gate (14). The rising 7YO is a very similar horse to Mr Brightside in the sense that he doesn’t know how to run poorly and that he makes his own luck on the speed. He races well fresh and has trialled nicely leading into this. You can never count the old boy out.
AEGON ($31) might be worth a speck at big odds. He was terrific fresh in the P.B Lawrence when coming from near last to only finish 2L away from Mr Brightside. He does his best racing second-up and out of all the Melbourne tracks he seems to do his best work at Caulfield. There is the possibility that they overdo it in front and set it up for back markers and he could be the one sprouting wings down the outside late in the race.
I WISH I WIN ($4) is a freak but she will have to be to win here. From the inside gate (1) she is going to be stuck in a horrible spot back in the field and it is a place that is horrible to be at here at Caulfield. If everything goes her way she can win, but I won’t be taking $4.
TIP: Playing the value here. 0.7U WIN #13 PRINCESS GRACE @$8. 0.3U WIN #5 AEGON @$31.
RACE 10: BENCHMARK 100 HANDICAP, 1400M
Interesting map here. They will go at a quick enough clip. BUFFALO RIVER (4) and EDISON (10) are the likely leaders whilst POLAND (12), ASCENSION (6), HERE TO SHOCK (2) will also try and sit handy. DEVOTED (14) has a chance to be more forward from the low draw.
HERE TO SHOCK ($12) is the forgotten runner here. He never does much fresh and he wasn’t completely disgraced first-up at Flemington when he sat on a pretty hot speed. He has since trialled like a good horse and now gets back to Caulfield where he won in his only start here by 2.5L over Polanco. He should be able to cross and sit on the speed and he is going to need Stackhouse to be at his best. This is a relatively weak race and I think he has been set for it. He is over the odds.
DEVOTED ($2.90) carries only 50.5kgs after the claim from Tatum Bull. He was terrific in a sit/sprint affair first-up when narrowly beaten by a Group performer in Amenable and his second-up record reads well. If he settles a touch closer in the run here, he can be winning. I don’t really think there is much meat on the bone though. Might not even be the best horse in the race.
KALINO ($4) was excellent when fresh when beating Much Much Better and he probably should have won by more. He then went up in grade to G3 level and was outclassed by the likes of Buenos Noches and Argentia. He draws to get a nice run here and is a chance.
POLAND ($13) was horrible last start but everyone is allowed an off day. His run prior to that at this track and trip was terrific when getting nailed late by Ulysses. They set a strong speed there and he beat the other leader with ease. He draws nicely and does his best racing here. Not without a chance.
TIP: Playing the value in an even race. 0.3U EACH WAY #2 HERE TO SHOCK @$12.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 1 #10 ACCLIMATISE – 0.3U EACH WAY @$15
RACE 2: TBC
RACE 3 #2 BELLE ET RICHE – 1U WIN @$3.50
RACE 5 #11 HEDGED – 0.5U EACH WAY @$8
RACE 8 #6 ASFOORA – 2U WIN @$3
RACE 9 #13 PRINCESS GRACE – 0.7U WIN @$8/#5 AEGON – 0.3U WIN @$31
RACE 10 #2 HERE TO SHOCK – 0.3U EACH WAY @$12
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.