We head to Moonee Valley this week as the Spring Carnival continues. To be frank, the Valley is probably my least preferred track out of the metropolitan tracks in Victoria to bet at. That won’t stop us from trying to find you a winner though. The meeting is headlined by the G2 Feehan Stakes over a mile where the unbeaten Globe is a $3 favourite. And the co-main event is the McEwen Stakes at G2 level where Australian superstar Giga Kick returns to face the star New Zealand mare in Imperatriz who was last seen winning the G1 William Reid at this track. As always, the advantage should be up and in and those that settle handy will most likely be hard to get passed on the last few meetings here. Let’s get into it!
RACE 1: 3-Y-O HANDICAP, 1500M
I found it hard to map this race. MERRIGOLD (8) will come across from the wide gate and look to lead with only the 51kgs on her back. WARLORDS (5) should settle handy and the likes of DUAL PRESSER (4) and FISTSOFFURY (3) have the chance to settle closer here.
APULIA ($3.70) goes on top with little confidence. He ran into a potential star in Veight a couple of times in his first preparation and the last run of that preparation was clearly his best when finishing 2L away from Veight in the G2 Sires Produce Stakes at Flemington. He returned a winner at Cranbourne when a $1.14 favourite and won by 2L. The race rated poorly but I think he has upside and has shown he can get around tight turning tracks well.
AUTUMN ANGEL ($2.40) has an entry for the Flight Stakes in Sydney and she would want to be winning here if that race is on the agenda. She had the one run last preparation when 1L away from a smart horse in Legacies and she showed a brilliant turn of foot to win on resumption at Sandown over 1300m. She drifted badly that day which means she should be open to plenty of improvement and further suits.
WARLORDS ($8) was a strong winner on debut when an even money favourite. He went to Flemington after that and was relatively poor but I tend to be forgiving after just one bad run from these younger horses. The Blinkers go on and I thought he trialled well at Cranbourne leading into this.
MERRIGOLD ($15) is the best roughie. She has won her last two with ease and is the likely leader which is a big tick at the Valley. Tatum Bull gets this horse down to 51.5kgs and she might make it a true staying test being the fit horse in the race.
TIP: Leaving this one alone. Try and get a gauge on the pattern/bias early.
RACE 2: BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP, 1600M
They should run this at a genuine tempo. FALCON OF MALTA (10) and CYCLONE SALLY (13) will cross from awkward draws to settle on the speed. HE’S THE REAL DEEL (2) will kick up and is the most likely leader. THE CREATOR (11), PLACE OF GOLD (7), and BLAZERRO (3) will all try and settle handy as well. The rest of the field will be midfield or worse.
SOKANON ($8) looks the value here. The New Zealander put together a good record across the ditch winning three from seven and his first-up run in Australia over 1200m off just the one trial and a five month break was very good with him running on to finish fourth behind Watadeel. He is undefeated second-up from two tries and he maps to get a nice run behind a genuine tempo up front. He gets the services of Damien Oliver here and I think this is a relatively weak race.
HE’S THE REAL DEEL ($21) looks a big price considering he races his best when they set a hot speed and he should get that here. He can mix his form at times but his best ratings from this preparation would have him in the finish and he has only had the one run at this track and trip for a win in similar grade. I think he is priced off the fact that he has hit his peak as a horse at seven but I think he finds a race where the lesser raced/younger horses just aren’t very good. He is a bet at that quote.
PLACE OF GOLD ($6) was luckless two-back at Caulfield behind Arran Bay over 1400m and then was very strong to the line when running second to a good horse in Rheinberg at Sandown over 1300m. The blinkers go on for the first time so expect him to be ridden more positively and I think he can measure up. The query for me is the mile. He has only raced at the mile once and was basically gone at the 300m mark and he didn’t have many excuses. They should go quick here too which might be his unravelling.
FALCON OF MALTA ($8) draws wide (14) and will have to work to get across but I think his form this time in has been good enough to be competitive in this. I think the mile is his sweet spot and he proved that by winning well at Sandown last start. Mark Zahra sticks and I think he will look the winner at some stage.
TIP: Playing the value. 0.6U WIN #5 SOKANON @$8/0.4U WIN #2 HE’S THE REAL DEEL @$21.
RACE 3: BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP, 2040M
The tempo up front all depends on whether the emergencies get a start. If they don’t, it looks like MAGNAPSIN (4) will take it up and the likes of ALORS TU CROIS (6) and BOND STREET BEAU (8) will settle on the speed with it. SUPERSTOCK (5) and ARABICA (12) have the chance to settle more forward if they want too.
MAGNASPIN ($3) was a good winner at this track and distance two-back when beating Slane by 2.5L and he then went up to 2500m at this track last start and was the victim of a brutal tempo when running 3.5L away from a handy horse in Duke of Hastings. I thought the run had merit considering it was his first time at 2500m and I think dropping back to the 2040m today should benefit him. He will lead and be hard to beat.
ALORS TU CROIS ($9) has won two on the bounce. He was fantastic on a wet bog at Tatura two-back when winning by 2.25L over 1980m and he beat a couple of decent horses over a mile at this track last start. The distance won’t be an issue and he maps to get the run of the race on the back of the favourite who is likely to lead.
ROCKEBY ROAD ($9.50) maps to get a nice run and isn’t without a chance with Jordan Childs jumping on board.
HAVISHAM ($13) was only nailed late two-back at this track to Superstock ($5 here) and a repeat of that effort would see him running well here.
TIP: This is a horrible race. It shouldn’t be on a Saturday and I couldn’t talk you into back anything. You are braver than me if you are betting here.
RACE 4: HANDICAP, 1200M
There is only six runners here so it might be a tactical affair. RECOMMENDATION (5) will probably bounce out and try to lead. SAVANNAH CLOUD (2) sat on the speed on resumption and probably will again here. CORNER POCKET (1) and GEMMA’S SON (6) will also be positive from the get-go.
RECOMMENDATION ($1.70) should be too good for them but at $1.70 I am not really keen on backing him. He won the G3 Zeditave Stakes at the end of last preparation at Sandown and his return a few weeks ago at this track was excellent when he was a certainty beaten behind Maximillius. He has proven he can get around the Valley well and he is also undefeated second-up which is a big tick. Under the Handicap conditions and only carrying 52kgs he might be the best weighted runner in the country on Saturday.
BUOYANTSEA ($11) brings in a different form line coming from New Zealand and they have surprised us in the past. He is coming off a long layoff but his last preparation was terrific with it culminating in a G3 victory. He draws to do no work and will be running on.
CORNER POCKET ($7) is a very reliable Gelding who has never missed a place when first-up. He has won two from four at the Valley and has never missed the placings. He could be over the odds if he brings his best form here. He will appreciate any rain around.
SAVANNAH CLOUD ($4.60) was a tough winner on resumption at Caulfield but the race didn’t rate particularly well. He needs to improve second-up and buck his historical trend to be a winning chance.
TIP: #5 Recommendation on top but I can’t back him at $1.70. If we see $2, I’ll be backing him.
RACE 5: MCKENZIE STAKES, LISTED RACE, 3-Y-O, 1200M
Another small field awaits punters. INTRODUCING (6) looks like the designated leader as I think STEPARTY (4) and BRAVE MEAD (3) will be happy to take a sit. The rest of the field will be happy to settle behind those three and try to run over them late. I doubt they will go overly quick.
STEPARTY ($2.50) looks hard to beat and I think the hype might be real about this Colt. He won three from three in his first preparation and he did it with complete and utter arrogance. Admittedly, he hasn’t beaten much in those three starts but he is putting up ratings that suggest he is a Group quality 3YO. He has had the two trials leading into this to get him ready for this race first-up and he should get a perfect run behind the leaders. He will be very hard to beat.
BRAVE MEAD ($3.40) is the danger. He is a talented Colt who put back-to-back wins together at Pakenham and at this track last preparation. He won a maiden at Pakenham by 4.5L and then found a weak Listed level race at this track and distance which he won by nearly 3L. He started at $8 in the G1 Sires Produce Stakes in Sydney and just found it too wet. He has trialled well and he likes the Valley. He is another very promising horse.
INTRODUCING ($5.50) brings down the Sydney form and was very good on resumption when going down to Tiz Invincible by a long neck. He was flat second-up but his racing pattern suits the Valley and he should get a relatively easy lead.
SCENTIFY ($7) will settle last but has a terrific turn of foot. If they jog along out in front and it becomes a sprint home, he should be close enough to run over them. He had the sixth fastest 400m-200m split of the meeting on resumption at this track and distance and the third fastest final 200m. He can run well.
TIP: They’ll find it hard to beat the favourite. 2U WIN #4 STEPARTY @$2.50.
RACE 6: ATLANTIC JEWEL STAKES, LISTED RACE, 3-Y-O, FILLIES, 1200M
They will go at a genuine clip here and every horse should be able to win off the back of it. OZ EMPRESS (8) and ZOUKERETTE (4) will try and cross from awkward barrier to settle 1-2. PRIDE OF SULLIVAN (10) will kick up and settle on the speed and probably be stuck on the fence as INHIBITIONS (5) will want to settle forward as well. CHARM STONE (1) draws wide (9) and is the interesting runner. They either need to push forward or snag back and try and run over them. The pattern will influence that decision.
CHARM STONE ($3) is the proven Filly. The Price & Kent camp have hyped her up for a while now and she returned a very impressive winner at Caulfield in the G3 Quezette Stakes when coming from back in the field to beat Skirt the Law. That race smashed the clock and she had the sixth fastest final 200m of the meeting over the 1100m which points to 1200m not being an issue. With luck from the gate (9) she will be hard to beat.
INHIBITIONS ($6) has returned the furnished product as a 3YO. She was luckless on resumption at Rosehill when she was bolting for a run for 300m in the straight and she made good for the punters at this track and distance last start when beating Oz Empress ($10 here) and Right to Party ($9 here). She maps to get a similar run here from the lovely gate (6) and she was five weeks between runs there so she should be open to improvement.
OZ EMPRESS ($10) was only nailed late by Inhibitions and should be open to improvement second-up. Her pattern suits the Valley and the Childs and Waterhouse combination have a good strike rate at this track. She is the likely leader/will sit OSL and if the pattern is up and in, she could be a bet at this price.
RIGHT TO PARTY ($9) and MOLLYKNICKERS ($6.50) will win better races over further but them featuring in the finish here wouldn’t shock. They will be spotting the leaders a start.
TIP: Leaving it alone unless there is a massive rails bias. If so, #8 Oz Empress may become a bet.
RACE 7: BENCHMARK 100 HANDICAP, 2040M
They will go at a moderate tempo here. I can’t see them going quick at all, at least not on paper. BUSTER BASH (4) is the likely leader from the inside draw. YOUTH SPIRIT (10) and REBEL RACER (9) will try and settle on the speed. FUTURE HISTORY (11) maps to get a perfect run behind the leaders and the likes of JIMMY THE BEAR (8) and BERKELEY SQUARE (7) have the option to settle further forward.
BERKELEY SQUARE ($4) has been building into this preparation nicely and I think he is ready to fire third-up. He resumed over 1400m at Flemington when recording the second fastest final 200m of the race and he then went to Caulfield and was very strong late to only finish 1L away from Jimmy the Bear ($6 here). He has won at the Valley before; he draws well to get a nice run around midfield (6) and I think this might be his best trip. He is the horse with the most upside and I think he can peak here.
FUTURE HISTORY ($4.40) was a terrific winner here last start when third-up and he should be rock hard fit now fourth-up and I think this is a much thinner race in terms of quality compared to what he beat last start. He maps to get the run of the race just behind the leaders and he also gets a similar set up here than what he did last start. He is the only danger and I think it is a two horse race.
BUSTER BASH ($31) is the best roughie and he generally takes a while to get going and he is now fourth-up. He is going to lead them up here and be able to dictate the race. If he can replicate his ratings from when he won the Perth Cup he can measure up here. If the rail is hot, it might be worth having something on him.
BORN A KING ($11) might be ready to improve here. He takes a few runs to get to his best and he is now fifth-up. His best figures put him in the frame.
TIP: Happy to bet here. 1U WIN #7 BERKELEY SQUARE @$4.
RACE 8: MCEWEN STAKES, GROUP TWO, WFA, 1000M
A small field here for one of the features on the program. ZOUSTYLE (3) and ACROMANTULA (4) are the speediest customers of the bunch and will likely settle 1-2 in the run. ROTHFIRE (2) won’t be far away from them and I think the two favourites in GIGA KICK (1) and IMPERATRIZ (5) will settle last.
GIGA KICK ($1.95) is hard to bet against. The Clayton Douglas trained Gelding has won seven from ten and in those seven wins has won an Everest, a Doomben 10,000, and an All Aged Stakes over the 1400m. He has trialled up a treat leading into this preparation and seems to have furnished into a proper and experienced horse this time in. He is the best horse in Australia and whilst he may be somewhat vulnerable first-up over 1000m, you can’t really back against him. I just don’t really want to back him at the short quote either.
IMPERATRIZ ($4) has had two Australian runs for a narrow second to Artorius in the G1 Canterbury Stakes and a win in the William Reid over 1200m at this track. We haven’t seen her over 1000m in her career but she is a versatile horse who is arguably the main danger in the race. You get the feeling they have targeted this race.
ROTHFIRE ($5) maps to get the run of the race and did win this race last year when beating Zoustyle ($12 here) and Coolangatta. This is harder but he can measure up on his best form.
ACROMANTULA ($9) will lead and isn’t the worst. He seems to love the Valley and it wouldn’t surprise to see him lead all the way.
TIP: It is all price dependent. If #1 Giga Kick hits $2.20+ he is a bet. If not, leave it alone.
RACE 9: JOHN FEEHAN STAKES, GROUP TWO, WFA, 1600M
It is an important map here and whoever wins qualifies for the Cox Plate. The two market elects in GLOBE (11) and TUVALU (1) don’t have much choice but to settle forward and cross from wide gates. DENY KNOWLEDGE (15) will kick up to try and make them work. SAVATOXL (4) draws widest and will need to come across. GOLDMAN (10), PINSTRIPED (7), POUNDING (6) can also settle further forward. I think they will go quick early and then slacken mid-race.
ATTRITION ($8) is one of two value runners I want to be with. He was fantastic last preparation when winning two from four and the preparation culminated in a narrow loss in the Australian Guineas to Legarto after he was caught 3WNC for the entirety of the race. He resumed at Caulfield in the P.B Lawrence Stakes when again caught wide and I thought he did well to only finish 2L off Mr Brightside. He will get a better run here and he generally fires second-up. He is well over the odds.
POUNDING ($11) is an underrated Gelding who was terrific in this type of company last preparation. He was terrific at this track in the All Star Mile when he was forced to go back and then flashed home late to finish sixth. He then went to the Australian Cup at Flemington and looked the winner before the 2000m seen him out. He was another who resumed in the P.B Lawrence and I thought his run was very good. He peaked over the last 150m which he was entitled to do and I think that would have brought him on for this race. He will get a nice run and I think he is going good enough to win a weaker G1 this Spring.
GLOBE ($3.20) is a very promising horse but he does seem a bit short considering he goes from winning (albeit by 4L) a Benchmark 100 against Normandy Bridge to this race which has G1 winners and G1 placers everywhere in it. He draws sticky (12) so will have to do plenty of work getting across and he might be a touch vulnerable first-up. I also don’t like the appointment of Jamie Kah as she has been in horrible form since returning. He might be too good for them and be a superstar, but I would prefer to wait and see whilst rising in grade.
TUVALU ($5) is one of two G1 winners in the field and he was excellent from a long way back in the P.B Lawrence on resumption. His only run at the Valley was a very good one behind I’m Thunderstruck and I think he will settle forward which is go to pattern. The wide draw (13) makes it harder but he might get a nice cart into it from the favourite. He can be winning.
TIP: Playing value. 0.6U WIN #13 ATTRITION @$8/0.4U WIN #6 POUNDING @$11.
RACE 10: BENCHMARK 90 HANDICAP, 1600M
Difficult race to map. RUSSIAN RONI (11) and RAMBLER REBEL (14) draw low and will kick up and try and lead and dictate. THOUGHT OF THAT (8) and EDISON (1) will want to settle handy and the favourite in HENNESSY LAD (10) draws tricky and will have to come across and try and slot in somewhere near the speed. The rest of the field will be happy sitting back and watching that unfold.
RUSSIAN RONI ($8) didn’t fire fresh but that is par for the course for this Waterhouse & Bott Gelding. He hasn’t placed in any of his three first-up attempts yet improves second and third-up. His form from last preparation when winning three on the bounce which included a win over Bello Beau in the Listed Tasmania Guineas saw his peak ratings be the best in this race over this trip. From the low draw (3) he will push forward and either lead or park just behind them and that is the best place to be at the Valley. The Costin & Waterhouse combination is a good one to follow now she has moved to Melbourne.
HENNESSY LAD ($3.50) is the main danger and has the most upside. He had to work to get to second two-back which probably cost him the win when losing to Brayden Star by 0.2L and he came to this track last start over this distance and won with ease when beating Legend of Dubai. He will have to do some early work from the tricky gate (11) but he is fourth-up now and should be very fit. He should be two from two at the Valley and he will be hard to beat if he has luck.
RAMBLER REBEL ($21) is two from four at the Valley and is the likely leader from the low draw. He didn’t fire fresh in a very good race when losing to Rheinberg and Chorlton Lane but he backs up here the week after and I feel like it might have been a set play by the Payne camp. He can give some cheek out in front.
ULYSESS ($14) is going very well but the gate makes it hard (14). He has been good in all three starts this preparation and he was caught on the inferior ground last start at Caulfield. If they overdo it in front he will be the one flashing home late.
TIP: Backing the value and saving on the favourite. 0.75U WIN #11 RUSSIAN RONI @$8/0.5U WIN #10 HENNNESSY LAD @$3.50.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 2 #5 SOKANON – 0.6U WIN @$8/0.4U WIN #2 HE’S THE REAL DEEL @$21
RACE 5 #4 STEPARTY – 2U WIN @$2.50
RACE 6 – TBC
RACE 7 #7 BERKELEY SQUARE – 1U WIN @$4
RACE 8 – TBC
RACE 9 #13 ATTRITION – 0.6U WIN @$8/0.4U WIN #6 POUNDING @$11
RACE 10 #11 RUSSIAN RONI – 0.75U WIN @$8/0.5U WIN #10 HENNESSY LAD @$3.50
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.