Another weekend and another 4 wins for my loyal readers! I feel like I am really starting to hit my stride at the right time of the year. Last week would have had you well in the profit, especially after Just Fine trotted in at $12! Hopefully, more winners to come this week!
Track Report: Back to Rosehill this weekend, we are set to have mostly strong weather all week long apart form some potential showers on Friday, if they hit, can’t imagine anything worse than Soft 6 and if they don’t we will be on a good 4 all day. Rail in the true position so we should get some pretty even racing.
Race 1 – 1200M Midway (Bm72)
I will be with Defiant Heart here. Has a great form race to go off with a nice placing behind Xtravagent Star and Smashing Eagle, who are well above this class. Drop in grade helps and should be strong late.
Extreme Spirit is an interesting one here. Was nominated for a group race later in the day, but decided to come here instead for what should be an easier task, however, he is an emergency and might find himself without a start at all. If he races, massive danger, watch to see how the market moves.
Bunker Hut and Iron Man round out selections here. They share most of the market’s money in quite an open affair and for fair enough reasons. They’ll both run similar races, tucked behind someone’s tail and try and burst clear late.
Selections: 3-20-8-11
Suggested Bet: Defiant Heart Each Way
Race 2 – Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
Straight to the point, Atmospheric Rock for me here. He missed the kick and got too far back to figure into the finish last weekend at Randwick, but the 7 day back up and rise in distance show intent to get a win here and I like it. The run screamed back me next start and that is exactly what I will do, expect him to be strong late.
Take The Kitty deserves to be the favourite in this one after a stellar prep so far, however, I cannot entertain a $2.50 shot in a Highway. Nash will give him a peach and as long as it stay dry and the track is allowing horses to make up ground, he can win strongly.
Chase My Crown goes into the numbers as the Highway stalwart, seems to be kicking around in these every other week and is never too far away from the line.
Missile Leader is coming into this one off some strong form in Canberra and should be included in all exotics.
Selections: 11-8-3-10
Suggested bet: Atmospheric Rock Each Way
Race 3 – 2400M Goffs Orby Sale (Bm78)
Too Much Caviar just wins surely? Has to be one of the better things going around on the day. Should get a super soft lead and dictate the race. He will turn the corner and go for home and should hold them all off. Just went down narrowly to Wineglass Bay last start, who is a horse I respect very much so. He is short, but sweet, should be winning.
Vincenzo jumps to this level of race for the first time in its career and presents as probably one of the only dangers to the favourite in my mind, purely because of the different formlines. Been strong through the line in every start and the rise in distance should suit, certainly would respect a play for the place on this horse, which pays more than the favourite to win.
Duke Of Hastings another horse who comes here with a different formline. He should probably find his way to the tail of Too Much Caviar and be strong late.
Karmazone rounds out the exotics.
Selections: 1-7-2-8
Suggested Bet: Too Much Caviar Win
Race 4 – 1500M Ranvet (Bm78)
Gracilistyla is the measure of consistency here and should be very hard to beat but she has proven to be quite the money eater for punters so she can win without my money if she gets it done.
I prefer to be on Unspoken. Backed him all of his last prep and while he didnt win once for me I think excuses can be made and here is his chance to make it up to me. If he can grab the back of someone amongst the pack and then go around them down the straight I think his finish will be the strongest of the lot.
Ivan’s Hero has been racing really well this prep with a nice win over Hollywood Hero and a strong 2nd placing behind Principessa last start. Probably needs it drier than wetter, but I think another strong showing is certainly in order for him.
Venelope would have to turn the tables on a few of these to win, but if anyone can get her to do it, it is Maher and Eustace.
Selections: 2-3-8-11
Suggested Bet: Unspoken Each Way
Race 5 – 1800M Thoroughbred Breeders (Bm78)
I think Marquess is the horse to be on here. He seems to be a really good gelding for the Cummings camp. He has come back super with 2 wins on the trot, including a gutsy win last start over Gracilistyla, who if she wins in Race 4, she could frank the form. I like the rise in grade, Schiller should give him a peach. I think he grabs the back of the leaders and stalks them all the way around until the final 300 or so. Watch for him late.
Howgoodareyou to go right to the front and attempt to control the race completely, which he did last start with an emphatic win over a strong horse in Call Di. Not loving his price honestly as he is getting close to being in the red. Lightly raced, untapped potential, can certainly make it 4 from 5, however, the price is just too short for me.
Holstein is having a bit of a career renaissance of late. Going 3rd, win, win in his last 3 starts, all of which he had no right to be running well in, maybe he is back to being a reliable performer? Maybe he has just been blessed with luck. This is the test.
Hollywood Hero rounds out the selections as he is always typically thereabouts in races such as this.
Selections: 2-9-8-7
Suggested Bet: Marquess Win
Race 6 – 1200M Irresistible Pools Sheraco Stakes
I Am Me is the one I want to be with. She’s short, but she deserves to be, she wins here and stamps herself as a serious Everest contender in my mind. I am pretty confident she gets up here, as long as we don’t get past the Soft 6 range.
Zapateo comes here after scratching last week as this was seen as an easier target and quite frankly, it most certainly is. The money has really come for him and with his adaptability to any conditions, no matter what kind of deck is dished up on Saturday he will remain a strong chance.
Sunshine in Paris, big chance in my opinion, she knocked off some strong horses in the Autumn, including Zougotcha and even better, In Secret. If Ryan Maloney puts her in the right spot to launch late she can certainly get over the top of them here, especially if they go too hard too early up front.
Zougotcha lines up here after a plain first up start and again I find it strange she is here and not the Theo Marks later in the card. I think she will find this distance just a touch too short. But she is a must include for all exotics.
Selections: 6-5-4-3
Suggested Bet: I Am Me (BEST BET)
Race 7 – 1400m Ming Dynasty Quality
Tom Kitten and Encap come out of the same race last start and both were phenomenal late, keen to see them up another 100 meres here. I agree with the market in that those are the two strongest chaces. Encap for me. Thundering finish last start behind Tom Kitten where he started to fade where as he was only just getting started, great sectionals, as long as he doesn’t find himself stuck on the fence he is in it up to his neck.
Zardozi also worth a shout up in distance, however, I still think she is in need of a mile plus and she will probably get too far back from that barrier, god I hope she doesn’t win because I really like her and she is at a huge price.
Congregation is a horse that wouldn’t shock me if he came out and won at his big price honestly. He was a winter horse who won some not so great races on paper, but I really liked the way he won them. Nothing too flashy about it, just head down, truck behind the speed and kick home late. Trials have been nice.
Selections: 5-3-11-12
Suggested Bet: Encap Win
Race 8 – 1200M Run To The Rose
Cylinder is short and for a good reason, seems to be the best horse in the race by a mile. His last start in Victoria he got it done by literally the barest of margins which is slightly concerning as he was fading hard at the end, however, with stronger fitness here perhaps that doesnt happen.
Militarize is probably on par with him class wise, but surely this is just a blow out of the cobwebs for him, as he gets better over much further.
Libertad is the unbeaten horse and the old saying is, you don’t know how good they are till they have been beaten. I have a feeling the first loss comes here, but happy to be proven wrong. If he manages yet another win here, he is a serious player moving forward.
General Salute up to 1200 after a strong flash home is interesting, I want to see what the market does with him, because while he doesn’t have the form of the top market hopes, he could run a cheeky race at a price.
Selections: 2-1-3-9
Suggested Bet: Cylinder Win
Race 9 – 1300M Theo Marks Stakes
Nugget for me. He is just the measure of consistency. Runs well first up, can do it in all conditions and is just tough and sometimes that is all you need. this might be too sharp for him, but if he isn’t winning, he should at least run a place. Multiple G1 placings to his name, he only runs strongly in my opinion.
Waterford is one we all know that I love, gets better over a longer distance but can get the job done if he draws a barrier and doesn’t trip out of them this time. If he can get the win here, I believe he will become one of the top seeds for some of the bigger races going forward.
Kovalica a very talented horse but this is surely too short for him? He is an out and out stayer I would have thought. he is coming off a Derby prep and is potentially headed towards the cups this Spring, so why is he resuming at 1300? Potentially to see if he is a Golden Eagle threat. I say no, for now.
Madame Pommery should run really strongly here. Can go in all conditions, has the in form Dylan Gibbons on her back and her finish behind Pericles last start was really encourage, plus the form has already been franked. Big chance.
Selections: 4-14-3-7
Suggested Bet: Nugget Each Way
Race 10 – 1100M Precise Air (Bm88)
Smashing Eagle for me the prep has been really strong so far and I think he can continue to rise through the grades with a couple of more wins this Spring. Last start he got far too back to factor but flew home for a nice 2nd placing. He beat Garza Blanca the start before that who proceeded to win a stronger race than this on Saturday last week so I am happy to be on the eagle here.
Red Card the horse that a lot of people will be on after a very strong Autumn prep. Probably needs it dry, but hasn’t ever been too bad on the wet. However, if she gets her ideal set up, she will certainly prove very hard to beat.
Airman has a 4 from 5 start record and has Zac Lloyd on board. Those 2 things added up together usually means it is a recipe for success.
Extremely Lucky fell flat on its face last start when it tried to hang with the big boys of the sprinting game and now finds itself back at Benchmark level. Only way I see him winning is purely because of that large drop in grade.
Selections: 13-4-11-3
Suggested Bet: Smashing Eagle Each Way
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Defiant Heart
Race 2: Atmospheric Rock
Race 3: Too Much Caviar
Race 4: Unspoken
Race 5: Marquess
Race 6: I Am Me (BEST BET)
Race 7: Encap
Race 8: Cylinder
Race 9: Nugget
Race 10: Smashing Eagle
The Quaddie
Race 7: 3,5,11
Race 8: 1,2,3
Race 9: 3,4,7,8,9,14
Race 10: 3,4,11,13
$50 gets you 23%
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