We head to the Valley this Friday Night for the main Victorian meeting over Grand Final weekend where the headline is programmed by the G1 Moir Stakes. The star New Zealand Mare Imperatriz is the $1.75 favourite with Asfoora being the second favourite at $6. The Stutt Stakes also takes place for the progressive 3YO stayers – some which are on a Derby or Oaks path. The star Western Australian Amelia’s Jewel will race in the G2 Stocks Stakes as a $1.35 favourite and the meeting is ended with the Scarborough Stakes for the 3YO Fillies where Magic Millions winner Skirt the Law is a marginal $4 favourite. Some superstars of the turf take to the Valley under lights and we can’t wait to unpack the card!
RACE 1: BENCHMARK 70 HANDICAP, 1500M
They will go at a slow tempo here. RAMBLER REBEL (3) is the designated leader and will cross from a wide gate. THE MARG FACTOR (10) will kick up from the inside gate to be handy. HUGENOT (5) should be at peak fitness now and can settle on speed and the likes of BOOGNISH (11) and PUNGO (7) can be more forwards from ideal barriers. The rest will sit back and try and sprint quicker than those on speed.
BOOGNISH ($3) is the one to beat but I need upwards of $4 to be betting. This mares run in the Lightning a few starts back when 1L behind La Danseuse Rouge would most likely win this and she hasn’t disgraced herself in her last couple of starts in South Australia, especially in the last one when she sat on a hectic speed and was only ran down late. From the low draw (4) she should settle forward which is the place to be at the Valley and Jamie Kah strikes at 26% for Will Clarken. She is a deserved favourite but $3 is slightly under the odds.
THE MARG FACTOR ($7.50) will have supporters and probably starts shorter than the current quote. She is in terrific form, winning two out of her last three. In her only miss of late she had a genuine excuse when caught 3WNC for the entirety at Bendigo over a mile. She draws the inside gate (1) here and she will either lead or camp just behind the leader which is generally advantageous here. I think she is being underrated by the market.
ALBANIAN I AM ($16) is the best roughie. He was in terrific form before being given a let up and I thought his run resuming over 1100m had merit about it considering it was a much deeper race than this and the distance wasn’t suitable. Fry and Koumis are a good combination to follow of late and he can be the one storming home late.
PUNGO ($5.50) isn’t the worst but he probably needs to improve/might need the run based off his trials.
TIP: Watching the market very closely. Will be backing #11 Boognish if she is $4+.
RACE 2: 3-Y-O, COLTS & GELDINGS, SET WEIGHTS + PENALTIES, 1200M
A small field here should make it a tactical affair. ESECUTORE (6) will kick up and looks like the designated leader with COINCIDE (4) sitting outside of him. BRAVE MEAD (3) is the interesting runner. He draws widest here and has tactical speed which helps his cause but I think they have to be positive and try and sit on speed. Outside of those three the rest of the field generally settles midfield or worse.
BRAVE MEAD ($2.50) will be hard to beat if there is any improvement from his first-up run when he had to make a mid-race move and still only finished 1L away from Steparty and Scentify who franked that form in the Guineas Prelude last week. The barrier has the ability to be sticky (7) but Mark Zahra is a fantastic jockey and I think he will have the option to figure out what to do after jumping considering he is in a small field. His peak career figure comes at this T/D and he steps back in grade from last start and his main danger doesn’t have the ability to turn the tables. With even luck from the gate he wins.
HEURISTIC ($7.50) could be the improver as a 3YO. He finished last preparation winning the G3 David Cole Stakes in South Australia and judging by his trials I think he has come back a much more furnished product this time in. He might need the run fresh but at the price I think he is decent each way value.
ESECUTORE ($6.50) leads on a likely slow speed and therefore is the map horse. He has beaten some average fields in South Australia but has done it in slick time. He needs to improve again here one would think but there is nothing saying he can’t and he gets the services of Jamie Kah.
ARMED FORCES ($5) was excellent fresh in the same race Brave Mead come through which is clearly the A1 form reference. I feel like he needs further now but if they overdo it in front somehow, he will be the one charging at them late.
TIP: #3 Brave Mead has the class edge here. 1.5U WIN #3 BRAVE MEAD @$2.50.
RACE 3: BENCHMARK 84 HANDICAP, 1200M
A capacity field is engaged and they will go quick. I AM WAR (7), EXETER (11), and NAJEM SUHAIL (1) all like to lead/sit right on the speed and it will be no different here. MAOTAI (2) and SANDPAPER (9) won’t be far away in the run and the likes of GEMMA’S SON (5) and ZAC DE BOSS (4) will have a decision to make from wide barriers.
NAJEM SUHAIL ($4.60) has shown he can sit on a hot speed and still find a kick and therefore goes on top here. I think the tactics were strange last start at Flemington and I am happy to forgive that run. His two prior starts were for two wins and one of them was at this T/D when they went 7L faster than standard time throughout the race. He gets back to the Valley which he seems to like and he gets Mark Zahra on to replace Thomas Stockdale which is a big tick. He is a deserved favourite.
SANDPAPER ($6.50) comes into this off two nice trials in Sydney. He was 2L away from Rediener and Yellow Brick at the end of last preparation after getting too far back at Eagle Farm and that form reads nicely for a BM84. His first-up record is a concern but you would think the camp would have him ready to fire here considering he might not have the ability to win the bigger Spring races?
CAUSE FOR CONCERN ($5.50) has his first trip to the Valley here. He loves the Flemington straight and the main query is how he is going to handle the short course. I don’t love the set up here from the wide gate (12) but he is ultra-consistent and that counts for something considering this field are an even bunch.
EXTREME STEP ($15) will appreciate the quick tempo they set out in front and she beat Nunthorpe two starts back and that form reference looks good for this now. She has won at the Valley before and she will like the rock hard deck that she will get here. If they are running on early, she might be worth specking.
TIP: This race had me scratching my head. I’ll stay out unless they are running on. If they are, #12 Extreme Step could be worth backing.
RACE 4: BENCHMARK 84 HANDICAP, 955M
They will run along quickly over this short trip. UNFLINCHING (1) draws the inside peg and is the designated leader. MUTINOUS (9) and RATTLE AND BANG (5) will come across from awkward gates to settle on the speed and then the map gets interesting. SHIRSHOV (10), HOME RULE (3), and FETCH (4) all draw alongside each other and none of them will want to be pocketed. The start is crucial here.
FETCH ($4) has been set for a race like this after the O’dea & Hoysted team have brought her down from Queensland. She has a very impressive first-up record winning three from four and she generally does her best racing on short courses which I think is why they have identified the Valley as a good track for her. Her and Unlfinching trialled together over 800m at Flemington last week and I feel like she went better there and generally has come up better than that horse who is the main danger. If she is within striking distance coming around the bend, I think she runs over the top of them.
UNFLINCHING ($3.95) is the main danger and I think it is a race in two. He is hard to knock. He has won five from six at the Valley and he is 2/2 at this 955m trip. His peak figure comes at this track and distance and he has shown his customary speed in recent trials at Flemington. He will kick up and lead from the inside draw (1) and if the rail is the place to be they will have a very difficult time catching him.
FASUTO ($7.50) was good on the inferior ground first-up at Flemington and he likes the short courses and the 955m shouldn’t be an issue for him. He goes well second-up and he should get a nice run in the 3WWC line. He can improve and might be the value runner.
HOME RULE ($8.50) should get a perfect run here and was good off a freshen in South Australia last start. He might not appreciate the dry track though which is some concern. Regardless, he is a chance to fill a hole.
TIP: Really hoping they can make ground. 1U WIN #4 FETCH @$4.
RACE 5: STUTT STAKES, 3-Y-O, GROUP TWO, 1600M
It was tricky to map this race. VERDAD (8) and AUTUMN ANGEL (11) should use low draws to settle forward and potentially lead. MOJAVE DESERT (4) draws to get the gun run and should settle just behind the speed. It gets tricky with GRIFF (1) and KING OF FIGHTERS (6) who are the two market elects who draw wide. They have shown the ability to settle forward but I think they naturally like settling midfield. They have a decision to make and that will obviously effect the tempo.
MOJAVE DESERT ($9) is still a maiden but I think he is the best value on the program. He had no luck on resumption behind a very smarty type in Ceolwulf when he recorded the fastest last 200m of the meeting over 1400m at Warwick Farm and he battled on bravely after sitting just behind a hot speed last start at Flemington in the Exford Plate that Griff won ($3.60 favourite here). He draws perfectly here (5) to camp just behind the leaders and the Waller camp always usually gets them peaking third-up. He should appreciate the mile and he gets more favours than the two horses that beat him by 1L only last start and he should improve more fitness wise than them. He is a bet at near double figures.
VERDAD ($5.50) is a good chance and shapes as the main danger. Obviously, it is hard to line up the form considering he is coming off the one maiden win, but the way he won that was dominant. They went 8L faster than standard in that race and he slaughtered them really and won eased down. 1600m seems ideal now and he will get a nice run behind the leaders.
KING OF FIGHTERS ($5) is a good horse and is my early Derby tip but I am not sure the Valley is going to suit him. He seems to be the type of horse that is going to love Flemington and he arguably should have beaten Griff last start when he ran into backsides for the first 300m of the straight. I get the feeling that they are going to go back in this race and if they do that, it will make it hard for him. Best horse on potential, but I don’t love the set up here.
AUTUMN ANGEL ($7) won with ease in a maiden first-up and then was unlucky when held up at a crucial spot last start over 1500m in a good race. She draws perfectly here (1) to get the run of the race and the mile should suit. He isn’t the worst and could potentially be the value.
TIP: Happy to play the value here. 0.75U EACH WAY #4 MOJAVE DESERT @$9.
R6: STOCKS STAKES, MARES, WFA, 1600M
They will go at a solid tempo which should give every horse their chance. DENY KNOWLEDGE (2) and PRIDE OF JENNI (4) will likely battle for the lead early and settle 1-2. THOUGHT PROVOKING (7) will cross from the wide gate (11) and won’t want to be far away in the run. SEONEE (5) and PAPILLON CLUB (10) will also push forward. The rest of the field will hope they overdo it and try and run over the top of them.
AMELIA’S JEWEL ($1.40) is one of the best horses in the country and all she needs to be doing is to handle the Valley to be winning. She showed how versatile she is when flashing home to narrowly miss Overpass in the Quokka over 1200m at the end of last preparation and she resumed with an easy win at Flemington over 1400m when beating Life Lessons with ease at G2 level. She will settle near last but she is just better than these and she should only take improvement second-up.
PRIDE OF JENNI ($12) is the main danger. I thought she returned in excellent order in that G2 that Amelia’s Jewel won. She was caught 3WNC for the entirety and battled on well to finish only 3L away from them. All her career peak figures are second-up and she draws well (6) to either lead or settle OSL which is a good spot to be here. With any improvement she beats the rest of them comfortably.
DENY KNOWLEDGE ($15) was dominant here fresh when winning by 2L over 1500m and she led on a hectic speed last start at this track in the race that Pinstriped won. I think she will improve third-up; they shouldn’t go as hard as they did there in this race and she will likely lead. She ticks plenty of boxes.
SEONEE ($11) was good after a freshen and has now won three in a row. She maps to get a nice run behind a hot speed but she will need to improve to beat the top three home.
TIP: #8 Amelia’s Jewel should be winning but she is short enough at $1.40. Leaving this race alone and hoping to watch the continued emergence of a new champion.
RACE 7: MOIR STAKES, GROUP ONE, 1000M
They will go like a bat out of hell here, to quote the late great Meatloaf. ACROMANTULA (6) and ZOUSTYLE (4) are the speediest customers in the race and I think they will be the leaders from low draws. GENERATION (5) and ROTHFIRE (1) also draw well and will want to settle forward. ASFOORA (8) will probably want to be with them but may be squeezed back a touch. The rest of the field will settle back.
IMPERATRIZ ($1.70) might be the best sprinter in the world by the end of the Spring and she was simply outstanding fresh at this T/D when smashing the likes of Giga Kick and Rothfire by 2.5L. The Five year old has come back in career best form and that was her career peak in that first-up run. Historically she either holds her form second-up or improves slightly winning four from five and if that is the case here only a savage bias will beat her. These are our B grade sprinters (with all due respect) and she is the best sprinter in the land.
ASFOORA ($6) is a deserved second favourite and this race has long been her target. She won with arrogance first-up at Caulfield when beating Midwest and Ingratiating and although this is harder, it is her Grand Final so you know she is going to be at peak fitness for it. I don’t think she will be a whole lot further in front of Imperatriz at the 500m mark and therefore I don’t think she can win, but she will probably finish second.
GENERATION ($51) might be the value at a big quote. He was solid on the inferior ground fresh at Caulfield when 2L behind Asfoora and he gets the blinkers on for the first time here which generally gives them a length or two improvement. He draws perfectly (2) to stalk the leaders and at $5 the place that might be the bet to have here with something very small the win.
ROTHFIRE ($8.50) will get a nice run but I can’t see him turning the tables on Imperatriz and he generally goes backwards second-up. Blake Shinn on is a positive but there are others with more improvement to come.
TIP: I could back #5 Generation but I need to see how the track is playing. I am leaving Imperatriz alone. She should win but is short enough at $1.70.
RACE 8: SCARBOROUGH STAKES, 3-Y-O, GROUP THREE, 1200M
Much like the feature I think they are going to go very quick. SHESALLSHENANIGANS (2) and SICILIAN (10) will kick up and settle on the speed from low draws. ULANOVA (4) and SKIRT THE LAW (1) will also try and be positive. CHILLED (8), ZOURION (11), and INHIBITIONS (5) will also try and settle on the speed and not far away from them. The rest of the field will settle midfield or worse.
BOSSY NIC ($15) has the chance to run over the top of them here. She beat home shesallshenanigans ($5.50 here) on debut in South Australia over 1050m before destroying them down the straight in her second start. She then went up to Sydney and was very good from the rear in the G2 Percy Sykes Stakes when finishing fourth behind Tiz Invincible and Kimochi whilst reeling off the second fastest final 200m of the race. She was spelled after that, has trialled up a treat leading into this preparation, and I think the 1200m off a hot tempo is a good recipe for success for this horse. She is over the odds and has a bright future.
SHESALLSHENANIGANS ($5.50) didn’t really handle Caulfield fresh and she was back to her best down the straight when beating Skirt the Law ($4 favourite here). I think this horse has more improvement to come and she draws to get a perfect run here if she gets any luck. There is no reason she can’t win again and I think the Valley is the only genuine query.
SKIRT THE LAW ($4) was good fresh at Caulfield and didn’t love racing down the straight last start. She maps to get a nice run but I am not sure she has come back as well as we thought this prep.
SICILIAN ($26) is the best roughie. She sat 3WNC two-back at Caulfield on a hot speed and was only 1.3L away from Skirt the Law and I think the discrepancy in price is to much. She didn’t love racing down the straight last start and she strikes me as a Moonee Valley type of horse. She might be the blowout chance.
TIP: Playing the value. 0.3U EACH WAY #6 BOSSY NIC @$15.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 1: TBC
RACE 2: 1.5U WIN #3 BRAVE MEAD @$2.50
RACE 4: 1U WIN #4 FETCH @$4
RACE 5: 0.75U EACH WAY #4 MOJAVE DESERT @$9/$2.80
RACE 7: TBC
RACE 8: 0.3U EACH WAY #6 BOSSY NIC @$15/3.80