Nice to bounce back last week, snagged a few winners, as well as lading the best bet. How good is Ozzmosis?! Racing is back at Randwick for what was once the biggest day of the Spring before The Everest came around – Epsom day. Stacked fields across the card and plenty of value to be found, let’s have a crack!
Track Report: Some rain fell on Wednesday night, but the track remains in the Good 4 range. With a smoking hot Friday and Saturday as well you would expect the track to be rock hard all day. Rail is in the true position so the racing should be as fair as can be.
Race 1 – 1800M Midway (Bm72)
Gonna go with Extreme Freedom here in a wide open edition of the midway. Has been racing quite well through the grades and gets his chance to prove his worth at the Saturday midway level now. Never gone this distance but I feel like he should be able to get there and if he does he will be hard to run down. Ryan has a good record on him so I will take a stab at him.
Blake Shinn could win on a broomstick right now and Philipsburg really needs that sort of ride. Hasn’t won in 70 weeks, but he is always there or thereabouts and deserves to be a worthy each way play.
State Of America gets Zac Lloyd on his back which means he should get every chance at a win. Short in the market for a highway horse but its fair enough considering the run of form he is in. Should sit behind the leading pack and launch late.
Our Maryanne is in strong for itself and has been a bit of a running mate of the favourite lately, yet he she is paying an extra $10, that could be an edge the market has missed.
Selections: 2-4-5-9
Suggested Bet: Extreme Freedom Each Way
Race 2 – 1000m Gimcrack Stakes
I love this race, one of my favourite of the year. The Girls step out for the first time and it often produces some nice early types – Coolangatta and Platinum Jubilee won the last two.
Invincible Madison for me as I am surprised she isn’t the field favourite considering how smart she was at the trials. She was the most expensive filly and boy was she good. One of the few on the day that was able to make up ground and win, very impressively I might add because as soon a Clipperton said go she was off to the races. I look forward to seeing what she can do under race pressure.
Lady Of Camelot is the half sister to last year’s winner Platinum Jubilee and is trained by the same camp. She was super at the trials. Classic Gai run, jump, lead, kick, win. She was probably the most eye catching filly of the day so I am not surprised she is the favourite. All of the same things can be said about Lady Tassort. Her trial was almost identical, style and time wise. Her breeding suggests she’ll be a good early 2YO so she could come out and win in a strong way if things fall her way.
Erno’s Cube is perhaps the most overlooked horse in the field. Didn’t win her trial, but that is because John Allen never let her go. He went up to Sydney purely to ride her in the trials and he has done that here again. If she has a Lamborghini engine hidden under the hood then the bookmakers will look quite silly with that price.
Selections: 5-6-7-4
Suggested Bet: Invincible Madison Win
Race 3 – 1000M Breeder’s Plate
I love this race just as much as the Gimcrack, will forever remember Empire Of Japan winning in style last year exactly as I predicted it. On that note, I am on Volatile. Because he is giving me major EOJ vibes. Same silks, same trainer, same jockey, same racing pattern and I am gonna be with him here. The camp seem confident with him, hence why they’ve booked JMac. I am confident he will be running strongly.
Scampi is obviously the main winning chance. He was super at the trials. Simply cantered past them and put a big gap on them just jogging. Wasn’t touched once. Looked like Winx in her prime. Ok I will stop, I am getting carried away, and egregiously exaggerating, obviously. But if he lives up to the potential, he could smash them here. He is just too short for a race like this.
Bodyguard and Espionage round out selections here due to the fact that they are simply overs in my opinion. Way overs. their trial was perhaps my favourite of the day because there was so much to unpack. Both looked super smart and strong through the line. The fact that they both line up at double figure odds, let alone $40+ for Bodyguard is baffling to me.
Selections: 14-11-1-5
Suggested Bet: Volatile Win
Race 4 – 1600M Bisley Workwear (Bm88)
Unspoken for me here won smartly for me last start despite me saying it was probably going to end up too sharp for him but the price was too good to resist, turns out the distance was fine and we cashed a nice bet for him in the end. Don’t get the same price, but out to a more suitable distance, he is the one to be with here, watch him run over them late.
I think punters re still tearing their hair out from Altivo’s last run. He was the short favourite in the market and then found himself in a world of traffic on the rail. He won’t have that problem now because he has drawn well wide. Will need to find some cover in transit, but all things considered he will be hard to beat.
Renaissance Woman is a solid customer who has produced strong outings in Group 1 company. However, this is probably more her go. I could see her becoming quite the dominant Benchmark horse if she brings her best effort. Watch for her late.
For Valour will have to do it tough, very tough from that 17th barrier but he will jump and try and immediately go forward to get the lead or sit just outside them. He does his best work at this distance so he is one of few that I could see winning from such a wide barrier on the day.
Selections: 8-13-7-9
Suggested Bet: Unspoken Win
Race 5 – 1600M Dulcify Stakes
Cafe Millenium is an interesting one. He has to be the biggest, dumbest horse I have seen in quite a while, but to be fair to him he has always screamed mile plus. I have already had a play on him for the spring champion because I honestly can’t see any other stand outs in the market right now. He will likely get right back, but he could certainly get over the top of them, especially if they go too fast out of the gates.
Tom Kitten is short and respectably so. He, unlike a lot of the field has already run the distance before and won at the distance mind you. Has the form behind Encap which jumps off the page considering how strongly that horse went in a Golden Rose. He will be hard to beat, just too short for my liking.
Agita has to be overs, because as I said, not many of the field are too experienced at this distance whereas this horse has 2 wins from 2 tries at the trip so you know he will be getting to the line strongly. The form around him isn’t strong, but David Payne knows how to train a young stayer, so watch out for this boy, he could quite easily cause a boil over.
Tanhauser can easily bounce back here. He has raced like a stayer for much of his career so the mile should end up being his bread and butter. Been to the distance twice, the first time he didn’t like the wet track at all and the 2nd he produced a more than positive 3rd in a JJ Atkins. JMac booked, he is a danger for sure.
Selections: 4-1-10-3
Suggested Bet: Cafe Millennium Each Way
Race 6 – 1600M G1 Flight Stakes
I just have to stick with Kimochi. She has been absolutely crying out, crying out for a win this spring. She just keeps coming up short. But this is her day. I know Tiz Invincible is good, but Kimochi will get her on the line here I reckon. She’ll get carted into it by the leading pack, go around them and gun em down.
That being said Tiz Invincible is one hell of a horse, looking like this year’s Zougotcha who just tore through the Princess Series last year. Zac Lloyd has been giving her peaches left right and centre and should do the exact same thing. Wait patiently for the 200m mark, push the button and burst clear. She is the measuring stick.
Tutta La Vitta is the X Factor and potentially the forgotten horse in this field. Her entire career she has been simply a ‘pass mark’ because she has yet to do any real damage, but she has also never done anything wrong. Absolutely flew home in the Tea Rose
French Endeavour is another one that was absolutely flying home in the Tea Rose and Dylan Gibbons will surely give her a ride and a half.
Selections: 2-1-10-5
Suggested Bet: Kimochi Win
Race 7 – 1200M Premiere Stakes
This is likely where the final Everest contenders come from. You have Alcohol Free, the 10 million dollar mare, that needs to perform to prove she wasnt a complete waste of money. You have Think About It as the very short favourite who is using it as his final warm up before the big dnce and you also have the likes of Hawaii Five Oh, Bella Nipotina, Remarque and Lost And Running all trying to prove they have what it takes to get a slot.
By all accounts Hawaii Five Oh is flying at trackwork as is Bella Nipotina so they are both massive dangers at their prices.
Think About It likely just runs over the top of them late, but at the price I like Alcohol Free. Just to place she is paying more than Think About It and considering her UK form and the hype surrounding her and the fact that she needs to run super to get a slot in the everest, Gai will have her prime here. She will bounce out the gates, straight to the front and look the winner for a long way.
Selections: 8-2-9-6
Suggested Bet: Alcohol Free Each Way – Alochol Free Place (BEST BET)
Race 8 – 1600M G1 Epsom Handicap
This race is WIDE open with no Pericles. Just looking at the field I can see just a mammoth amounts of winning chances.
Waterford is one I would have loved to get on as he is carrying feathers but my god that barrier surely kills his chances, he will be strong late but you can count on that, so don’t be surprised if he finds his way into the money.
The Inevitable is the peoples horse here as he continues to shorten as the racing industry wants to get around the boys from Tassie and he is a red hot chance too considering his Mr Brightside form. Plus, his Theo Marks run was excellent without winning, super strong through the line, it is not often you run like that in a Theo Marks and don’t progress well into an Epsom.
However, I am looking towards the lightweight Waller chances that are drawn well. Democracy Manfiest and Rediener are both red hot chances in my opinion and boy would the crowd and most importantly Darren Flindell go off if it ws a succulent chinese epsom meal.
But I will be with Kovalica, Middle draw is perfect, gets Joao, 3/3 at the distance, undefeated 2nd up and Chris Waller runners grow a leg 2nd up so he should be prime for a huge run here. He can sit amongst the pack and make a thunderous run home and get the choccies.
Selections: 10-3-19-16
Suggested Bet: Kovalica Each Way
Race 9 – 2400M G1 The Metropolitan
All things considered, Just Fine should be winning with an a leg in the air. 2nd barrier, drops a mammoth amount of weight and is a different breed to this field. I mentioned a few weeks ago that you needed to get on him for this race in the futures because he was going to end up short, I didn’t imagine this short but! The distance is a slight query and he is unbackable at this price. But he is a must for your standout exotics.
Cleveland is a horse I can see turning the tables on him and he is worth an each way play, especially considering his place price alone. He is a genuine out and out stayer and he was given 0 chance in the Newcastle cup, perhaps the worst ride I’ve seen any horse been given. Damien Oliver on board he should be strong late and if he gets up, I’ll be sad my futures bet goes down but boy oh boy will we have snagged a big win.
Major Beel another that can run a very strong race here. Went down by a few lengths to the favourite last start, but this is a horse that gets better the further he goes. There is 0 query about the distance with him. He could very easily be taken straight the front and never get run down. It has happened before, it can very much well happen again.
Benaud is perhaps the biggest danger. As Just Fine begun to fade late last start at the 2000m mark, Benaud was only just getting going. He is a horse that has always shown potential, could this be the time he can actually secure a big race?
Selections: 14-3-4-12
Suggested Bet: Just Fine top selection, but Cleveland Each Way and 1-3, 4, 12 Quinella are the bets with the favourite’s short price.
Race 10 – 1200M City Tattersalls Group (Bm94)
Kibou a very strong chance here. The fact that he was able to hold off the late charge of Garza Blanca impressed me, because he is a super horse in my opinion. But he was able to get the choccies there with that double play saver bet I put on in that race. He is the one to beat for sure.
However, Recommendation and Much Much Better at their prices are sticking out to me and make me second guess myself. So I am probably going to look stupid here but I think this is where Tommy Berry can announce himself to be back at the races in a big way and get the Grey Roughie Much Much Better over the line. I tend to always be drawn to that horse and it has happened again. He will sit just behind Kibou and can stalk him all the way, no reason why he can’t get over the top in the final stages in my mind.
Recommendation, as I mentioned, is another strong chance. She is the Victorian raider who is coming off a faultless prep to date. She is a horse that knows where the line is, plain and simple and sometimes that is all you need.
Pizzaro a knockout chance, he is always there or thereabouts in these benchmark affairs.
Selections: 3-8-2-13
Suggested Bet: Much Much Better Each Way
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Extreme Freedom
Race 2: Invincible Madison
Race 3: Volatile
Race 4: Unspoken
Race 5: Cafe Millennium
Race 6: Kimochi
Race 7: Alcohol Free (Place BEST BET)
Race 8: Kovalica
Race 9: Just Fine
Race 10: Much Much Better
Quaddie
Race 7: 2,6,8,9
Race 8: 1,3,8,10,13,15,16,17,19
Race 9: 1, 3
Race 10: 2,3,8
$50 gets you 23%