Racing returns to Rosehill for a quiet week of racing before the big day next week, of course, Everest day! Get keen for that, but for now, it is time to build the bank and land some winners.
Track Report: Rain on Wednesday had the track at a Soft 6, but with the sun since it should be a Good 4 or at worst Soft 5 tipping into Good 4. Rail is in the true position, so racing should be as fair as fair can be.
Race 1 – 1500M Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
I wish Atmospheric Rock wasn’t the favourite, because I am on a lot of favourites this card and I cant justify being on the favourite in a highway so I decided to go looking for some value for the punters. Nickelback. Been on before and he is a consistent enough character. Always runs on strongly, maps well for this to just sit off the speed and try and go past them in the final stages.
Chase My Crown is yet to win at this distance, but the drop back in grade should help a bit. She has been running around in Benchmark contests for a while now but she just couldn’t cut it. Back to highway, she is a chance.
The Coat Hanger rounds out selections thanks to its fantastic run last start behind Al Ash Lad. I think that is solid form to have for a race like this.
Selections: 5-11-1-17
Suggested Bet: Nickelback Each Way
Race 2 – 1400M Midway (Bm72)
Peace Officer hard to beat but don’t want to be on a favourite in a midway, Territory Express for me here. He pushed Razors to his limit last start, who was a $1.80 shot and much above this class. The horse who finished 3rd in that race has gone on to win just this past Monday at Randwick which means the form has been franked and lets not forget Razors was starting $1.70 favourtie against peace officer when he tripped out the barriers and threw JMac off a few weeks back. So I would rather take the each way price on this horse than the favourite.
Backrower has to be in the numbers here despite the fact that he has become quite the money muncher. Tommy Berry goes on board and honestly, this could be the making of him. Should sit amongst the midfield and make a case late.
Bazooka rounds out selections due to his ability to pop up at random times. One of those types that’s always capable to win at big odds.
Selections: 15-2-8-1
Suggested Bet: Territory Express Each Way
Race 3 – 2000M Acy Securities (Bm88)
I will be with Pierossa here. Has the form behind Marquess which is a form line I respect highly. Didn’t get clear until late but really opened up and closed off nicely behind the boy in blue. Up another 100 metres, down a kilo, I only see upside for this horse and I am happy to take the short price.
Mission Phoenix has to carry a large amount of weight which I think could be his undoing but a win would be the furthest thing from a shock. He is super consistent and he has been running into some smart types lately like Straight Acer, Pericles and Just Fine. He likes the track and the distance, can get the job done.
Gan Teorainn has almost identical formlines through this prep. She is yet to win down under but she has found herself quite the winnable race. Waller seems to think she will love the rise in distance, happy to trust his judgement.
Queenmaker is always the bridesmaid never the bride. A must for exotics as she always there or thereabouts.
Selections: 8-1-4-9
Suggested Bet: Pierossa Win
Race 4 – 1100M Racing And Sports (Bm78)
Xtravagant Star for me here. Field faovurite and for good reason. Put Smashing Eagle away last start, who has had a brilliant prep in my mind so that form reads good. She gets the conditions to suit and she is also 6 weeks between runs here which means she is a bit on the fresh side, however, she does her best work fresh. Undefeated at the distance, and she can keep it that way.
Doull has gotta be in the numbers despite the big price. Fell off a bit of a cliff late last prep, but before that he was only a couple lengths off of the likes of Buenos Noches and Giga Kick, who are two of the most prolific sprinters in the country.
Pioneer River has become a bit of a money muncher but he can certainly get the job done here at a big price. He maps to get a very cushy run right behind the speed. Drops back in grade but has to take a slight weight penalty as a result. Maher and Eustace should always be respected as solid chances in races like these.
Way To The Stars is more of a first up horse, however, he should be included in your exotics.
Selections: 7-1-2-4
Suggested Bet: Xtravagant Star Win
Race 5 – 1200M Roman Consul Stakes
Ozzmosis is a machine. We all know by now how much I love him. He just wins here and then goes on and wins the Coolmore Stud Stakes. He will jump, sit just behind the lead and storm over them.
Celestial Legend is the only danger in my mind. He is going to be a good horse, mark my words. He is already getting compared to Cheerful Legend and personally, I think Celestial is going to be better. Out to 1200m which helps him immensely.
Namesake and King’s Gambit round out selections due to their strong ability, however, I would be shocked if one of the top 2 selections don’t win, especially the top selection.
Selections: 3-5-4-1
Suggested Bet: Ozzmosis Win (BEST BET)
Race 6 – 1400M Toyota Forklifts Tapp-Craig
You would have to think it is a case of bad luck beating Encap here. Was supposed to run in the Group 1 King Charles Stakes after a fantastic run in the Golden Rose where he almost won. However, Portelli noticed quite a thin field in this race earlier this week and decided to throw in a late nomination for some easy prize money. I think he was 100% correct and he should win with a leg in the air.
Chrysaor, Makarena and Razors are the only other horses I could possibly entertain but all things considered Encap should be winning.
Selections: 1-4-13-9
Suggested Bet: Encap Win
Race 7 – 1900M Petaluma Hill Stakes
I will side with Hoo Ya Mal. He was excellent without doing much first up as it was a run that screamed give me more ground. Found himself one paced next start which makes me think this steep jump in distance will be the making of him. Up to 1900m now. Can win and potentially head to a Group 1 race next.
Montefillia can bounce back here. She really hasn’t been running up to scratch as of late. Poor rides, bad barriers and missing the start can all be noted as relevant excuses. But, at the end of the day, she is the multiple group 1 winning horse that once beat Verry Elleegant with some energy in the tank and I respect that highly.
Protagonist loves this track and this distance and should be putting in a strong effort her. Only lost by a whisker first up before running into the enigma that is Just Fine. Usually does his best work early in the prep but he is a horse that is dynamic, full of upside and once came out and absolutely destroyed some very strong horses when first bursting on the scene.
Hinged is a must for exotics. She is super talented, super consistent, hasn’t won in over a year and a half, but this could be her day.
Selections: 7-11-6-12
Suggested Bet: Hoo Ya Mal Each Way
Race 8 – 1400M Alan Brown Stakes
I think Waterford is one of those horses that always runs well and it’s why you always have to respect him and be wary of the fact that at any moment he could produce his best and smash them. Scratched from the Epsom to run here which is an interesting set up to me, would have liked to See Tommy Berry on him, but the weights didn’t work out. I think he can bounce back, just needs to have a positive steer from the middle barrier and not miss the start.
Banju is a horse I have a lot of time for. He managed to win some strong races in the Autumn time and was able to defeat some genuine Group 1 winners. Struggling to see why he is at such a huge price considering all signs point to a strong run.
Cepheus goes in here as he just keeps on winning somehow. He has come from just about nowhere after falling off a cliff in the last few preps, but he has done nothing but thrive at the metro level since his return to the big time. Has 2 wins over Waterford which helps his chances.
Roots does her best work when fresh, usually likes a bit of cut in the ground but can still win when dry. Tommy Berry goes aboard and will make sure to give her every chance. Yet to win at this distance but she can run over the top of them late.
Selections: 12-6-5-1
Suggested Bet: Waterford Win and Banju Small play Each Way
Race 9 – 1200M The Nivison
Parisal probably one of the better bets of the day in my mind. Yes, Royal merchant is a Group 1 winner and is a definite danger, has yet to run a bad race to date really, but Parisal comes into this one fitter and is absolutely flying. Won nicely first up before being beaten by Benedetta who is a very nice horse in her own right so the form is A grade for a race like this, happy to be on.
Magic Time is a joint favourite at this point, I can see why, she is undefeated at the distance as well as the fact she has form behind the likes of Midwest and Asfoora. However, I think Parisal should be starting shorter than her.
Call Di has a touch of class about her. I am unsure about this distance but she is more than capable of finding her way into the money with the low weight. At the huge price, she is a big each way go.
Selections: 3-1-5-14
Suggested Bet: Parisal Win
Race 10 – 1300M Cerrone (Bm78)
Happy to be with Diamond Dealer for a bit of value in the last. Won for me before and I think he can do it again for sure. I see no reason at all why she is at such a large price here. Last time she was at benchmark quality racing she won very well. She has since jumped up an run two respectable races at group level, she now drops back and finds herself at Bm78, when her last win was at Bm88? Surely the market is wrong here!
Gringotts goes in as the 2nd pick here. Last start was the first time within his short career that he missed the trifecta and even then he wasn’t far off the finish. Maps to run strongly here and should be there or thereabouts.
Kayobi is the favourite here, deservedly so. A length off of Garza Blanca and Kibou last start, that is fantastic form, despite Kibou’s failure last start. Gets weight off the back with the apprentice claim and maps to sit right behind the speed.
Bunker Hut might be jumping up from Midway grad, but he looks good enough to progress.
Selections: 4-10-2-18
Suggested Bet: Diamond Dealer Each Way
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Nickelback
Race 2: Territory Express
Race 3: Pierossa
Race 4: Xtravagant Star
Race 5: Ozzmosis (BEST BET)
Race 6: Encap
Race 7: Hoo Ya Mal
Race 8: Waterford
Race 9: Parisal
Race 10: Diamond Dealer
Quaddie
Race 7: 6,7,11,12
Race 8: 1,5,6,12
Race 9: 1,3,5,14
Race 10: 2,4,10
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.
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