The Caulfield Cup carnival kicks off with Caulfield Guineas day and what a day of racing we have in store for Punters. The headline event is the G1 Caulfield Guineas where Militarize and Steparty head the market. The co-main events, if you would say, are the G1 Might and Power Stakes over 2000m where Alligator Blood is the $2.30 favourite and the G1 Toorak Handicap where Amelia’s Jewel is the $2.30 favourite. There is seven Group races on the program and there is talent and good betting opportunities aplenty. Let’s get into it!
RACE 1: BENCHMARK 80 HANDICAP, 1700M
Not the easiest of races to map but over this distance at Caulfield you want to be up on the speed. RHINOCEROS (12) looks the likely leader and I think OUR EMPRESS ZOE (14) will follow him and sit outside the leader. Outside of them it is hard to map. FARHH FLUNG (11) has the opportunity to box seat from the rails draw. RUSSIAN DANCER (6) can settle closer and the likes of MAKTOOB (8) and ALBANIAN I AM (13) can be ridden more intent if they want to settle closer in the run.
OUR EMPRESS ZOE ($13) shouldn’t have to do much work from the wide gate (13) to get across and she gets in light carrying just the 54.5kgs. I think she is a mare that needed that confidence boosting win and she got that two-back on the Synthetic at Pakenham. She then went to a BM64 grade race at Moe and dominated her rivals when winning by 4L. This is harder admittedly, but she should be in the right position in the run and there is definitely no world beaters in this field. The Lane and Price & Kent combination strike at 32% which is also a big positive.
FARHH FLUNG ($5) maps well and is in good form. He loomed as the winner fresh at Sandown before peaking on his run late to finish second and he was fantastic last start at the Valley when coming from last to win whilst clocking the fifth fastest final 200m split of the meeting. He needs to be ridden with intent from the rails draw (1) and if he is he should only need even luck to be in the finish. 1700m a tick based off last run and he is now third-up for the in-form rider in Victoria. Plenty to like.
MAKTOOB ($10) will need a touch of luck from the gate (8) but he is in good form as well. He had to sustain a long run first-up in a hot form race when he was beaten just 2L and he was clearly the best of the closers at Flemington last start in a run dominated by those on speed. If he is ridden closer, he should be ready to peak.
KETTLE HILL ($5) flashed home late on resumption at Sandown and it put the writing on the wall for a good preparation. He goes up 4kgs based on that run and his rating which isn’t ideal but he has the ability to win a race like this.
TIP: Watch the market and react late. It will probably show you who is going to show intent.
RACE 2: 3-Y-O FILLIES PLATE, 1200M
I expect a relatively slow speed here with most of these having their first crack at the 1200m. EXCESS (8) will kick up and is the likely leader from the inside draw. SHESALLSHENANIGANS (1) likely sits outside of her and then the likes of TIME OF MY LIFE (10) and APPIN GIRL (2) will try and coffin/box seat. There is a decision to make on SHEVA (9) and whether they go forward or drift back. The rest of the field will be midfield or worse.
MISS ARIA ($15) strikes me as the one who is over the odds. Coming back from 1400m-1200m probably isn’t ideal but at least we know she will run out a strong 1200m which can’t be said for at least a couple of others. I thought her win fresh over 1347m at Geelong was outstanding when she sat on the speed and gave a brilliant kick at the 400m to run the third fastest 400m-200m split of the meeting and she was luckless last start at Sandown when not having much room behind Carina Queen. She will settle around midfield and if they go slow, she might have the 200m burst that can win her the race here.
APPIN GIRL ($2.70) is a deserved favourite but does look skinny at the current quote. She ran terrific time/smashed the clock sectional wise in her wins in Queensland but her end of preparation run was slightly concerning when she couldn’t run down Cifrado over 1200m. The form out of that race is just average and she does have some barrier issues which ruled her out in what was meant to be the first run of her preparation at Flemington a few weeks ago. She maps to get the run of the race though and is a sectional star. Her best figure probably wins.
SHESALLSHENANIGANS ($4.20) was very good when winning second-up at Flemington. She beat Stretan Angel home in that race and that horse subsequently beat the likes of I am Unstoppable so the form stacks up well. She was just even at the Valley last start but I think Caulfield will suit her more and she should get an economical run up on the speed. This is her grade but it wouldn’t surprise to see others improve and beat her.
TIME OF MY LIFE ($8.50) was excellent on debut when winning at Geelong in slick time over 1100m. She maps to get a nice run and looks like a horse that is better suited to 1200m. It is hard to get a gauge on how good they are after just one run but I would be keeping her safe and in all the exotics.
TIP: Something small on Miss Aria. 0.3U EACH WAY #7 MISS ARIA @$15/$3.50.
RACE 3: HERBERT POWER STAKES, GROUP TWO, 2400M
A golden ticket into next weeks Caulfield Cup is on the line. I don’t think they will go overly quick here. MILITARY MISSION (4) will cross and is the designated leader. CARINI (8) will be ridden positively and might sit on the back of the leader. FERAGO (10) and REBEL RACER (6) will sit near the speed and the rest of the field will settle midfield or worse.
UNITED NATIONS ($8) is over the odds and should be shorter. He had excuses in both runs in NSW and was terrific fresh when running the second fastest final 200m of the race over an unsuitable trip of 1800m. He then come to Melbourne and was brilliant at the Valley when having to sustain a long run from back in the field to eventually finish second. He had issues behind the barriers last start at Flemington and still ran the fastest last 200m split of the race. He is very fit now; he will like the 2400m and he gets in light carrying just the 53kgs. His peak figure overseas would win this race and I think he is ready to run to a similar level here.
CARINI ($2.90) is a winning chance but does look way under the odds here. He was peaking on his run late over 1700m at Flemington and they didn’t go overly quick in that race. He goes from 1700m-2400m off a months break and I don’t particularly like that set up either. To offset that he might just be the best talent in this race which should carry him a fair way. He will get a lovely run on what is likely to be an even speed and there is no better long distance rider in Australia than Micky Dee. I can’t have him at the current price but he is a danger.
BRAYDEN STAR ($4.40) has been sprinting well off of slow tempos throughout this preparation and he gets a similar set up here. His ratings rate similar to the favourite and I think he is better suited at 2400m than that horse which must be considered. It took a Caulfield Cup chance to beat him two-back in Future History and that horse had every favour over him in the run on that occasion.
MILITARY MISSION ($10) will likely lead at an even tempo and can provide a good kick. If the pattern is leaderish he comes into consideration as a strong winning chance.
TIP: Happy to trust Maher & Eustace. 1U WIN #9 UNITED NATIONS @$8.
RACE 4: NORTHWOOD PLUME STAKES, GROUP THREE, MARES, 1200M
They are going to go like grease lightning here early. RED CARD (2) will muster from the wide gate and try and cross them to lead. SERADESS (6) will kick up from the inside to either lead/settle on speed and SHE DANCES (7) draws in the middle and will also try and lead/box seat in the run. Them three will ensure a genuine tempo. GREY RIVER (5) maps to position behind them and there are decisions to make from the likes of ROSE QUARTZ (8) and LA DANSEUSE ROUGE (4) who draw sticky.
GREY RIVER ($8) should be shorter. She had no luck last preparation when being caught wide with literally every run she had seemingly. Her run in the G2 Tobin Bronze Stakes was enormous. She was posted 3WNC the trip over 1200m on a hot speed and still rattled off great late sectionals to finish 1L off She Dances ($12 here) who was good in her own right. She resumed in the Wylie Handicap over 1100m a few weeks ago and was simply outstanding beating a handy field by 2.7L. She generally always improves second-up which is encouraging and she is going to get the run of the race just behind the leaders. She just needs even luck.
SHE DANCES ($12) was poor on resumption but she did have excuses when trapped 3WNC on a genuine speed. She was only beaten 3L there so she was far from disgraced. Her two performances at the end of last preparation would simply win this. She won the Vobis Gold Dash by 5.5L at Sandown and then went to SA when she sat outside the leader on a hot tempo and only narrowly went down by 0.3L. She is a good horse and at $12 I feel like the market isn’t showing her enough respect off one average run where there were genuine excuses.
SERADESS ($7) was much better last start when beating home the favourite Red Card ($2.80 here). I don’t really understand why there is such a big price differential considering she draws to do less work though and I would rather be on this mare than the favourite. Her peak figures put her right in this. She can run a big race.
RED CARD ($2.80) is under the odds. She didn’t parade well last start which will be a watch again but her figures don’t scream $2.80 favourite after being drawn wide and expected to cross a hot speed to me. I concede she is a fast and talented horse but I don’t like the set up and I would rather her over 1100m than 1200m, especially when they are going to go quick.
TIP: Playing the value. 1U WIN #5 GREY RIVER @$8/0.5U WIN #7 SHE DANCES @$12.
RACE 5: SCHILLACI STAKES, GROUP TWO, 1100M
I found it hard to predict a tempo here. The two favourites in ASFOORA (7) and UNCOMMON JAMES (2) might sit 1-2 in the run. I doubt the experienced Damian Lane will get into a speed battle, however. CHAIN OF LIGHTNING (8) might be the fly in the ointment. She draws the rails and might try and take it up? LOMBARDO (4) and HOME RULE (6) next best.
INGRATIATING ($9) was one I wrote about in my review article about five weeks ago and I did pick this race as a suitable one. I didn’t think it would be as strong as what it is but clearly the stable agreed. He absolutely loves Caulfield and all his peak figures come at this track. He was brilliant last start when closing off in the second fastest last 400m and 200m of the meeting and going down by 1L against Asfoora ($2.30 here) who subsequently ran second in the G1 Moir Stakes. He will need luck from the low draw (2) but his best is good enough to be in the finish here.
ASFOORA ($2.30) is the main danger. Mitch Aitken didn’t ask her for everything she had fresh when beating Ingratiating and she still was never going to lose. She then went to the Moir Stakes and put up a big figure when 1.25L second to New Zealand superstar Imperatriz. She draws to sit either outside the leader or box seating and she goes well third-up. The 2kg advantage on Uncommon James could be the difference.
UNCOMMON JAMES ($2.40) closed off nicely behind Asfoora in that Moir Stakes and now gets the blinkers on and gets back to a more spacious track in Caulfield where he has won before. He goes well second-up winning three from three and he gets the blinkers on for the first time which should see him ridden with more intent from the draw. He will get a nice run behind the favourite and could run past him late.
CHAIN OF LIGHTNING ($8) was only beaten a length by Uncommon James first-up last preparation in the Rubiton Stakes and she has won her other two previous first-up runs. She has trialled nicely and is the outside chance.
TIP: Playing the value again here. 0.5U EACH WAY #1 INGRATIATING @$9/$2.80.
RACE 6: WEEKEND HUSSLER STAKES, LISTED RACE, 1400M
The pace should be solid enough to give every horse their chance. BUFFALO RIVER (2) will cross them and lead early whilst VRENELI (10) will kick up from the inside to either lead or sit behind the leader. AYRTON (1) maps to get a nice run behind the speed as well as REGARDSMAREE (6). The rest of the field will settle midfield or worse in the run.
AYRTON ($4) is a deserved favourite but I am not going to get carried away here considering he is a flimsy type of horse. The positives are that he is four from four at the track and four from six first-up and that are the circumstances he finds himself in this race. He went to Sydney last preparation and failed but he gets back to Melbourne and should be hard to hold out against inferior opposition. He should be winning, but he is unreliable and his trials weren’t overly fantastic. I hate the race as a betting analyst.
BUFFALO RIVER ($11) was outstanding back to this grade last start when leading all the way to beat the likes of Savannah Cloud and Corner Pocket. He will cross and lead again here and it wouldn’t shock me to see him lead all the way again. He has plenty of ability on his day and the race shape might suit.
REGARDSMAREE ($7) was good in a cracking form race behind Here to Shock and Devoted last start and maps to get the run of the race sitting just off the speed. He likes Caulfield and could easily peak on the preparation here.
BUOYANTSEA ($19) worked home well last star when dropping back in grade. It wouldn’t surprise to see him run well here third-up. The New Zealanders don’t bring them here for nothing.
TIP: #1 AYRTON on top but I am leaving this one alone. I have no real gauge on the race.
RACE 7: MIGHT AND POWER STAKES, GROUP ONE, 2000M
It will be a truly run 2000m in the first G1 of the program. DENY KNOWLEDGE (10) and LINDERMANN (8) will likely settle 1-2 and I think the two favourites in ALLIGATOR BLOOD (1) and JUST FINE (6) will settle together in the next pair. Outside of those four the speed is lacking. I think the fact that all those four want the lead/to be first four in the run will ensure a genuine tempo throughout though.
DUAIS ($5) has come back in terrific order and gets her chance to win another G1 here. She was brilliant on resumption over 1400m in the Winx Stakes when 1L away from Fangirl and she just got too far back two-back in a fast run Chelmsford Stakes and ran the third fastest last 200m of the race when closing off well. She came back to Caulfield where she seems to do her best racing and was fantastic late to run home in the second fastest last 200m of the race and the third fastest final 400m to finish just 1L off Alligator Blood in the Underwood Stakes. The 2000m suits her more than most of the other fancies in this field and we know she loves Caulfield which some of the others don’t. She will be steaming home late.
JUST FINE ($4) has proven he can handle a fast run 2000m. He is three from three down under and he has absolutely smashed the clock in each win. He sets up a good tempo but he has the unique ability to be able to keep running at that sustained speed over long distances. He will camp on the back of the leaders and I actually thought 2400m saw him out last start in the Metropolitan so coming back to the 2000m is ideal. Childs & Waterhouse with on speed horses are one of the best combinations in the land.
NONCONFORMIST ($19) might be the blowout chance. He has worked home nicely in both the Memsie and Underwood Stakes at G1 level and from the good draw (5) he doesn’t have to be too far away from them. He peaks third-up, he loves Caulfield, and he is the one capable of hitting a peak in this race. He will appreciate the strong speed up front and be working home well over the last 400m.
ALLIGATOR BLOOD ($2.30) is under the odds. Can he run out a strong 2000m? I have serious doubts and there is no way I could be jumping in at $2.30. He was tiring heavily late over 1800m in the Underwood and now everyone thinks he is going to be strong late in a fast run 2000m? He has the heart of a lion and a will to win like not many horses before him but I would be laying him at the current price. I don’t think he wins. The flip side of the argument is that in each failure over 2000m it was against better opposition than this lot when losing to the likes of Anamoe and I’m Thunderstruck. I think he will find at least one stronger late.
TIP: Happy to be with the NSW form. 1U WIN #9 DUAIS @$5.
RACE 8: LADIES DAY VASE, GROUP THREE, MARES, 1600M
They will run along at an even tempo here. NUNTHORPE (8) will cross and lead from the tricky gate. WISHLOR LASS (10) will kick up and sit on the speed, if not right behind the second favourite. PAPILLON CLUB (3) may hunt up and sit on the speed as well. The likes of PARTY PRINCESS (5) and CHANDON BURJ (7) have decisions to make from sticky draws on whether they want to go forward or be dragged back. The rest of the field will settle midfield or worse.
WISHLOR LASS ($3.60) is a progressive Mare who looks hard to beat here. She is lightly raced just having the six starts but four of those have been wins as she has made her way through the grades. She worked home well on resumption at Sandown over 1300min a race where back markers never featured. She was super late when running the fastest last 200m of the race. She then went back in grade to a BM70 and she absolutely smoked them when winning by 2.5L and running the eighth fastest last 400m split of the meeting. She draws perfectly (6) to camp on the speed, she is third-up now off two slowly run races which is a good platform and the mile won’t hold any concerns. She is very versatile and looks set for better races than this. She should be winning and only needs to handle Caulfield.
SHE’S A CON ($19) is the saver. She showed plenty of ability across the ditch and I thought she was a chance in her Australian debut but back markers were just never in the race considering how slow they went. She worked home nicely in the second fastest last 400m of the meeting and fifth fastest final 200m of the meeting. 1600m suits now, they should go quicker here, and Michael Dee jumps on for Grahame Begg which is a brilliant combination. She will need luck but she will be flashing home late.
PAPILLON CLUB ($12) had excuses last start when back markers were never a factor. In her two starts prior to that she worked home nicely over 1200m and then 1400m, the 1400m run was a 3L defeat to Amelia’s Jewel. She can settle closer here and her peak figures have her in the finish. She can run well.
NUNTHORPE ($5) will lead here and might get a cosy run. If they do go too slow, she has a brilliant 200m burst and it could win her the race. I am assuming the other jockeys will be awake to this but I have seen them get caught napping before. She can lead all the way If given a picnic out in front.
TIP: Keen to play here. 2U WIN #10 WISHLOR LASS @$3.60/0.4U WIN #6 SHE’S A CON @$19.
RACE 9: CAULFIELD GUINEAS, GROUP ONE, 3-Y-O, 1600M
They will go at a solid tempo here but I think it will advantage those up on the speed because they won’t be breaking any track records or anything. ROCK EMPIRE (12) will boot through to lead from the low draw. This is where it gets interesting. STEPARTY (4) might have to sit outside of him because the likes of SOUTHPORT TYCOON (9) and VEIGHT (5) aren’t just going to give him the box seat. VERDAD (11) and GRIFF (6) have decisions to make from the wide barriers about whether they push forward or settle back. THE LONGEST YARD (15) will have the option to settle closer from the low draw.
STEPARTY ($3.60) is the bet. I think the odds of he and the favourite should be swapped and that this horse is a deserving favourite. He is undefeated from five starts and both runs this time in have given him a terrific platform for this. On resumption he sat outside the lead on a slow tempo and kicked clear of them around the bend at the Valley when winning by a length and last start was even more impressive. He got dragged back in the field which he hadn’t done before, looked gone at the 500m mark, and then reeled off the eighth fastest 400m-200m split of the meeting and the second fastest last 200m of the race to get up on the line and beat Southport Tycoon. He draws nicely, will be on the speed most likely so has the map advantage over the main danger in the market, and 1600m isn’t an issue. He ticks all the boxes.
MILITARIZE ($2.90) is the main danger. He has been brilliant at each of his two runs this campaign. He got too far back in the Run to the Rose on resumption and reeled off the fourth fastest final 200m split of the meeting and he then won the Golden Rose after coming from near last over 1400m when clocking the ninth fastest last 200m of the meeting there. He will be spotting them a start but the 1600m suits him more than most others and he will be rocketing home late. I just think he is a bit skinny considering he faces another potential star horse here and it is his first time at Caulfield and he will be giving them probably 6-7L in the last 500m.
VERDAD ($30) is the blowout chance and it is worth having something small on him. He was brilliant on debut at Bendigo when winning by 3.75L and he was arguably a better run than Griff ($23 here) in the Stutt Stakes at the Valley over this distance last start. He was doing his best work late there when clocking the fastest last 200m of the race and I think he will be suited by a quicker tempo which he should get here. He will be positive from the wide draw (14) and be in it for a long way.
VEIGHT ($21) is the forgotten horse. He was brilliant first-up when beating Legacies and Little Brose ($29 here) over the unsuitable 1200m and he just did everything wrong last start in the Prelude which cost him the race. He draws well, 1600m is his go, and he could easily spike and win this.
TIP: Happy to bet here. 2U WIN #4 STEPARTY @$3.60/0.4U WIN #11 VERDAD @$30.
RACE 10: TOORAK HANDICAP, GROUP ONE, 1600M
They will go quick here. HERE TO SHOCK (14) and PRIDE OF JENNI (10) both draw low and there is every chance they will burn the turf early and sit 1-2 in the run. ANTINO (6) will be positive from the visitors draw (17) and try and sit on the speed. SAVANNAH CLOUD (12) and CORNER POCKET (9) also like to be forward in the run. The rest of the field will be happy finding their spots around midfield in the run.
HERE TO SHOCK ($14) is in brilliant form and is the value runner. He sat on a very strong speed two-back at this track over 1400m when carrying 59.5kgs where they went 6L faster than standard to the 800m and 4L faster than standard between the 800m-400m and he was still only beaten 0.75L. The third horse subsequently beat Antino ($8 here) so the form stacks up. He then raced against Antino and was only beaten 0.4L after looking like he was going to get beaten by 3L. They meet each other at similar weights here but this horse is going to get an economical run from a perfect draw (3) and he only carries 52kgs. His fourth-up run was his best last preparation and if he follows that profile again, he will be in the finish.
AMENABLE ($19) after one bad run has went from $23 against Mr Brightside to $19 against this field whilst carrying 6.5kg less? Makes no sense to me. It was a horror watch last start in the Testa Rossa and once he got dragged back and then they went 7L faster than standard between the 800m-400m his race was over. He was the run of the race in the Memsie when running the fastest last 200m split of the meeting and finishing 2L behind Mr Brightside and I wish I Win and that form is the best in Australia. 1600m yes, solid tempo yes. He only needs luck at the right time to be in the finish and this has been his target for the whole preparation.
AMELIA’S JEWEL ($2.30) has won nine from eleven and is one of the better horses in Australia. She beat a handy field first-up in the Let’s Elope Stakes and the second horse in that race has won subsequently. She then went to the Stocks Stakes and sat on the speed against her usual pattern and ran a track record when running down Pride of Jenni ($13 here). I think she has negatives though. She draws wide and will get a long way back (or likely be posted very wide) and she had to give everything to run down Pride of Jenni last start. If they do go quick in front, will she spot them too much a start? I think she is under the odds at $2.30
POUNDING ($19) had no luck in Sydney last start but was excellent in Victoria before that. He probably should have beaten Pinstriped two-back in the Feehan and that horse is $11 compared to $19 which makes little sense. If he can find a spot around midfield it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in the finish.
TIP: Playing the value here. 0.7U WIN #14 HERE TO SHOCK @$14/0.3U WIN #15 AMENABLE @$19.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 1: TBC
RACE 2: 0.3U EACH WAY #7 MISS ARIA @$15
RACE 3: 1U WIN #9 UNITED NATIONS @$8
RACE 4: 1U WIN #5 GREY RIVER @$8/0.5U WIN #7 SHE DANCES @$12
RACE 5: 0.5U EACH WAY #1 INGRATIATING @$9/$2.80
RACE 7: 1U WIN #9 DUAIS @$5
RACE 8: 2U WIN #10 WISHLOR LASS @$3.60/0.4U WIN #6 SHE’S A CON @$19
RACE 9: 2U WIN #4 STEPARTY @$3.60/0.4U WIN #11 VERDAD @$30
RACE 10: 0.7U WIN #14 HERE TO SHOCK @$14/0.3U WIN #15 AMENABLE @$19
TOTAL OUTLAY: 11U