Well, last week didn’t go to plan did it? Went to war at The Everest and came out with very little to show for it. However, we don’t give up, we forge on and we look to make up for that this week and hopefully get back in the green.
Track Report: The track should be just as hard, dry and fast as last week , starting Good 4 and potentially Good 3 by the end of the day. The rail goes out 5 metres the entire circuit which means the leaders could have an even bigger day out than they did last week, however, I think with proactive rides, some backmarkers could find their ways into the finish.
Race 1 – 1000M Kirkham Plate
I will be with Shangri La Express over the stablemate of The Three Hundred. While The Three Hundred was more impressive at the trials I think the price is a bit egregious here and the price swing to the stable mate who will probably be with him every step of the way until the finish is good enough to have a small wager on Shangri La Express. But mostly a watch and learn race for me with a small 2YO field with a short favourite.
Only other horses you would think are strong chances are Agenda Setter and Blue Illusion based on trial performances.
Selections: 6-8-2-3
Suggested Bet: Shangri La Express Win
Race 2 – 1800M TAB Highway (C3)
I am a notorious no favourites in the highway man, but Amarantz for me. Danielle Sieb wins these races just about once every few weeks and she can again with this horse. Rise in distance suits, only trouble is she should get very far back from that inside barrier and with a 5 metre rail its not ideal but if she can get to the outside nice and early off a hot tempo, she can run them down.
Whodat returns to Sydney after a bit of time up in QLD where he ran respectably without picking up any wins. You know what they say about that QLD sun, it can be the making of horses and I can 100% see that happening here. The drop back in trip and grade will help his case.
I Am Good At This probably sounds like something his jockey Zac Lloyd would say in a post-race interview and he might well be saying it after this race. With a potential on pace bias, if he doesn’t burn too much petrol getting over, this horse could end up setting the pace and dictate the entire race, leading all the way.
Devocean is a roughie I can entertain here. Dylan Gibbons on board, been strong through the line in his previous 2 starts, both wins mind you. 3 on the trot up in distance now is far from out of the question.
Selections: 2-4-9-12
Suggested Bet: Amarantz Win
Race 3 – 1400M Midway (Bm72)
Satness for me here, should push straight to the front and Brock Ryan is in strong form at the moment so he should give him every chance. 3 out of the 4 wins in his career come on dry decks, one of which was at this track. He has placed 5 times in 8 attempts at this distance and I feel he could potentially finally get his win here with the fast deck.
Peace Officer is flying right now for Clarry Conners and should be expected. However, I feel like he could have a rinse and repeat deal with his last start when he got too far back to factor in the finish. Nash has to jump off as well due to suspension, which won’t help.
Xtrarevz is a strange one here because you don’t often find horse in a Midway that was running around in a Group 1 just a few months ago. This horse finished a respectable 8th in the QLD Derby behind Kovalica in the winter and that form did him well first up in a BM64 contest at Kembla, winning smartly. Can continue that form here.
Epicus has the inside barrier and the speed to launch forward and play a catch me if you can sort of job. Certainly a winning chance.
Selections: 15-5-14-10
Suggested Bet: Satness Each Way
Race 4 – 2000M Acy Connect (Bm88)
Marquess has to be the horse you’re on here. I think Marquess is a horse which should be running well and or winning The Five Diamonds later this Spring, so if my suspicions are correct, he should be absolutely giving this benchmark field a bath.
Pierossa is really the only horse I can identify as a potential danger in this field as she is in fine form. She ran so strongly late to nab a win right on the line from Mission Phoenix. This field is probably of equal class apart from the favourite, to be in the finish she just needs to not find herself too far back from that inside barrier.
Mission Phoenix and Queenmaker will both jump on the bunny and look the winner for a good while. The only difference between the two is 6kg of weight on the back from top weight to bottom weight. Expect both to be right in the finish as they will either kick the whole way down the straight, or find themselves getting passed in the final 100 metres.
Selections: 6-8-1-10
Suggested Bet: Marquess Win (BEST BET)
Race 5 – 1200M Precise Air (Bm78)
Commemorative for me. She came out in June as this massive 2yo filly that had no right to be that big that strong and that smart. She was a mack truck. Weirdly she only comes out to race now instead of showing up in the Golden Rose but word on the street is she is headed to the Thousand Guineas now and fair enough, probably more her style staying in her sex class. But she faces the old girls here, with the rock bottom weight, if she is the still the same horse, she will win and win comfortably.
Kazou is one of the only horses that I wouldn’t be shocked if she won. She has been really impressive in the past, specially at the midweeks. Last time she was at the Saturday metro grade she managed to finish on the tail of Vienna Princess, who won the Silver Eagle last week.
Rainbiel was touted by myself as potentially the next Mariamia earlier this prep. I was wrong. This is her level, nothing more. If she isn’t being competitive here you probably wouldn’t be wanting to have money on her ever again. She remains a solid each way chance here, but it is D-Day for her.
Overriding rounds out selections purely for exotics.
Selections: 12-3-2-5
Suggested Bet: Commemorative Win
Race 6 – 1100M Sporting Chance Cancer Foundation (Bm78)
Smashing Eagle will do me here. I have a high opinion of this horse and I am on him every start, because I truly believe he is top of the table when it comes to Benchmark Level Sprinters. He has a fantastic turn of foot when the jockey says go and he should arguably be undefeated this prep, just runs into a bit of traffic from time to time. Prebble hopefully has him sat right at the top of the midfield and pounces in the straight.
Contemporary is another horse who will be running on from the back here but if he can sit close enough to them to get a bit of a suck run there is no question that he can run past them all. After kicking the prep off in the winter with a nice win, he couldn’t go on with the job, finishing 3rd in 3 straight races behind some decent horses. Likes this distance, finds conditions to suit, watch for him late.
Dashing Legend is the one that I will be keeping a watchful eye on in the yard and the market. She was a group level horse for the Hawkes camp the last time we saw her. She has since moved to Joe Pride and lines up as the heavy top weight in a BM78 contest. Maybe looking for an easy kill before moving back up to stakes grade? Time will tell if Pride has managed to turn her around.
Stromboli goes in to round out selections thanks to his form behind Garza Blanca.
Selections: 7-8-1-5
Suggested Bet: Smashing Eagle Win
Race 7 – 1600M Robrick Lodge Filante Hcp
One more favourite for me before I go searching for value. I am happy to ride Unspoken no matter the price as he is the best horse in the race and should be winning. He has won for me twice this prep and I expect him to continue on doing so. He is a weapon on dry tracks and he knows when to dig deep under pressure as was showcased with his last win, bold run down the fence from Tommy Sherry had him nailing them on the line. He can win in similar fashion here, but down the outside instead.
Banju is overs, plain and simple. A bit disrespectful in my eyes to be having a horse who has beaten Soulcombe and a list of other G1 talents at over $20 in price in such a weak field in comparison. He will look the winner for a long way as he pushes forward.
Knight’s Choice is the interesting one of the field, as he dominated the QLD winter carnival and his owners were offered millions of dollars from a group of Hong Kong businessmen, but they turned it down and pressed on. He was never a chance at an unsuitable distance first up, gets to his preferred mile here and for the sake of his owners, I hope he runs well.
Wicklow the only other horse I could potentially entertain.
Selections: 11-5-12-7
Suggested Bet: Unspoken Win
Race 8 – 1500M Five Diamonds Prelude
Long time readers will know about my long time love affair with Waterford and honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets up here, finally, after displaying so much potential this time last year and amounting to not a lot. But Tommy Berry finally gets to ride him again, which could be the thing to turn him around.
However, I can’t get away from Fawkner Park. I think this horse has the potential to potentially run in and win a Group 1 one day, so I think the Five Diamonds suits perfectly, he just needs to gain a start. He could potentially find them too sharp here over 1500m on a very fast deck that he could potentially see himself getting pretty far back on. However, if he can sit close enough to them, he has the turn of foot to get over them.
Boy oh boy, wouldn’t a Democracy Manifest win be succulent? He comes out of the Epsom here, which is obviously the strongest form line and he is a deserved favourite because of it. He probably finds himself getting back a bit from that barrier, but similar to both Waterford and Fawkner Park that I have already mentioned, he has an elite turn of foot when the jockey says go. Wouldn’t be surprised if all 3 of these horses are seen streaming down the outside and end up in a photo finish for the trifecta.
Cotehele will be the one they will have to watch out for who could have the race won before they even make their late launch. He was a good thing beaten last start thanks to plenty of traffic and Sherry will make sure that won’t happen again by being a little bit more proactive early. Could gap them if the track is playing fast.
Selections: 8-6-2-5
Suggested Bet: Fawkner Park Each Way
Race 9 – 1600M Big Dance Wild Card Hcp
Shocking barrier for For Valour, but to be honest he has enough speed to work his way to be on pace with a bit of luck from the jump. He has winning form lines, last start a length off Unspoken, who I am backing earlier in the card and then the start before that he finished a length off Silver Eagle winner Vienna Princess. So clearly he has been in the right company to be winning a race like this. Rarely finds himself out of the money on dry decks as well so I think he is a great play.
Spangler hasn’t fired much of a shot since his fantastic tearaway win of the Provincial Midway Championships in Autumn, however, he has been running acceptably in a class that is just too good for him. Back to a grade which suits, ready to peak, the distance suits, Berry will give him every chance. Watch for him late.
Flying Crazy will be another to watch late as he most likely flies home and hopes that the track is allowing him to make up the ground that he will give the rest of the field in the early stages. He needs to also hope to god that the 3rd barrier doesn’t cause him to be stuck in traffic.
Journalism rounds out selections with the bottom weight. Waterhouse and Bott trained, so you know he will be pushing forward and he can 100% steal this one if the chasers let him get a quick sectional off and skip away from them.
Selections: 9-7-1-12
Suggested Bet: For Valour Each Way
Race 10 – 1200M Tab (Bm88)
Gonna be with Pizarro here off the one week back up. He was in the Sydney Stakes last week with some of the countries top sprinters and he managed to finish 4th, If that isn’t good form I don’t know what is. Surely if he can find some cover and sit off a hot tempo here he can run home and get over the top of them.
Much Much Better will give this field a shake if he can find himself at the front. About 70% of his career victories have come in situations such as this – the deck is rock hard, its playing fast, he pushes his way to the front and kicks all the way down the straight. He has the ability in him, he just needs to rock up, which he doesn’t always do.
Tristate will appreciate the conditions, however, he is up against it a bit with the set up of the race. 17th barrier, only placed twice from 7 attempts at the distance and only once from 5 attempts at the track. He is flying, but has to do it the tough way here.
Pioneer River can have similar claims to excuses if he ends up coming up short. He is more proven at this distance than Tristate, but like him, he has found himself in a horror barrier.
Selections: 7-3-13-18
Suggested Bet: Pizzaro Each Way
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Shangri La Express
Race 2: Amarantz
Race 3: Satness
Race 4: Marquess (BEST BET)
Race 5: Commemorative
Race 6: Smashing Eagle
Race 7: Unspoken
Race 8: Fawkner Park
Race 9: For Valour
Race 10: Pizarro
Quaddie
Race 7: 5,11,12
Race 8: 2,5,6,8,10
Race 9: 1,4,7,9,12
Race 10: 3,7,13,18
$50 gets you 16%
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