It is Caulfield Cup day this weekend as we head back to the Heath for the five million dollar race over 2400m. Last years Melbourne Cup winner Gold Trip is a narrow $6.50 favourite in the feature after a dominant Turnbull Stakes win. The supporting cast features both the Caulfield Classic and Ethereal Stakes which are the two main lead ups to the Victorian Derby and Victorian Oaks. The Thousand Guineas Prelude also takes place for the Fillies and the Tristarc Stakes at G2 level looks like a good field. Let’s get into it!
RACE 1: 3-Y-O, C&G PLATE, 1400M
Interesting map here and I think they will run along at a relatively quick tempo. KAIZAD (3) will kick up from the low draw and is the likely leader with THE INSTRUCTOR (1) coming over to sit outside the leader. MAGIC MOGUL (4) will use the draw to settle just behind them and BRAVE MEAD (2) has the chance to kick up and sit inside of him. The rest of the field generally settle back and that should again be the case here.
BRAVE MEAD ($2.80) cost us last start when we were on him as a $2 favourite but he has had excuses in both starts this preparation. He had to sustain a long run fresh in a race that Steparty won at the Valley over 1200m and then again got stuck 3WNC on a hot early speed at the Valley when he ran 0.75L off Maharaba and still managed to run the second fastest 400m-200m split and final 200m split of the race. The horse in front of him (likely Kaizad) should carry him into the race and if he has luck on straightening, he will be hard to hold out. 1400m suits now and he is the best horse in the race. He carries in superior form lines considering his rivals.
KAIZAD ($5.50) sat outside the leader and then booted clear to win a maiden at Warwick Farm by 3L over 1400m in a race that rated well (they went quick early and he still had good acceleration late). His narrow defeat to Makarena fresh looks good for this race now considering that horse beat Encap subsequently and he might have just been flat second-up. He should lead them here and if the pattern is on-speed throughout the day he will be hard to run down.
THE INSTRUCTOR ($4) looks a touch skinny as the second favourite. He was outclassed two-back at Flemington over 1100m in a hot race before dropping in grade and winning over this trip at Sandown. He didn’t run an overly quick last 400m and the race was on-speed dominated there. The set up is different here and I don’t trust him to run out a strong 1400m so I am willing to risk him.
REPRISAL ($11) will arguably improve up to 1400m after a good maiden win. It’s just how much he can improve because this is a lot harder.
TIP: Happy to be with the first favorite. 2U WIN #2 BRAVE MEAD @$2.80.
RACE 2: CAULFIELD CLASSIC, GROUP THREE, C&G, 2000M
I found this race hard to map. I don’t think they will go overly quick here. GOLD BULLION (4) is the likely leader in this race which will be an advantage. SUNSOURCE (1) might have the option to push forward with little speed engaged in the field. RIFF ROCKET (2) will get the box seat from the inside gate and the likes of SUNSETS (5) and APULIA (3) will be next in line.
RIFF ROCKET ($1.50) put a gap in these horses last start and it is hard to see him not doing it again considering the way the race sets up again here. The majority of these horses have their sights set on the Victorian Derby so I don’t think they will want to run it along too quickly and this horse ran the fastest last 200m sprint of the meeting in that race and therefore he will be very hard to beat with any luck. I won’t be taking $1.50 but I can only assume he will be in plenty of multis on Saturday and rightfully so.
APULIA ($9.50) is a talented horse and I think he the only danger. He needed the run last start in the Super Impose after having to be scratched a couple of times leading into that run and he was excellent two-back at the Valley over 1500m when flashing home late. He draws nicely (6) to get a good run and 2000m will suit now. He can be running on late and I still think the Derby is a brilliant race for him.
GOLD BULLION ($6) will lead and I think he is a winner. He sat on the speed two-back over the 1500m at Sandown and won well to beat a handy enough horse and he basically repeated that win at Flemington over 1800m in the Derby Trial. If he makes it a bit of a staying test, he might be able to pinch it because the majority of these horses won’t want a gut buster.
SUNSOURCE ($17) was the best of the rest in the Super Impose and can settle closer in the run here. He isn’t the worst.
TIP: I am leaving this one alone. Riff Rocket hard to beat but I’ll be watching at anything under $2.
RACE 3: ETHEREAL CLASSIC, GROUP THREE, 3-Y-O FILLIES, 2000M
I don’t think they will run along overly quickly here with little speed engaged in the race. Short priced favourite TROPICAL SQUALL (1) should cross them and maps as the likely leader. SAXON BEAUTY (10) and GRINZINGER BELLE (6) will kick up and likely settle second and third in the run. KONASANA (5) led last start and won’t be too far away and AUTUMN ANGEL (4) has the ability to show more intent and kick up from the low draw (3). The rest of the field will settle midfield or worse.
TROPICAL SQUALL ($2) looks hard to beat here. She is coming off a G1 win in the Flight Stakes where she led at a hot tempo and kept kicking to beat the likes of Kimochi and Tiz Invincible. She drops back in grade here to a G3 Fillies race and even though she draws wide (12) she shouldn’t have too many issues crossing them as there isn’t much speed on up front. Her main goal is the Victorian Oaks in a couple of weeks’ time but she is clearly fit enough to win here after that G1 win. 2000m shouldn’t be an issue and Adam Hyeronimus forgoes a good book in NSW to come and ride her.
AUTUMN ANGEL ($4.80) is the main danger. I thought she had excuses two-back when third at the Valley over 1500m but her runs either side of that have been very good. She dominated them fresh in a maiden at Sandown and her last start run in the Stutt Stakes was terrific. The form coming out of that race is brilliant (Griff winning the Guineas and Mojave Desert winning on Wednesday) and she was the only horse that made any ground there when clocking tenth fastest last 200m of the meeting. If they go quicker than expected out in front, she will be rocketing home late back to Fillies grade.
GRINZINGER BELLE ($18) is the best roughie. I am not sure how Konasana and Wings of Song can be nearly half her quote based off what we seen last start at the Valley. This horse was caught three wide early and had to push up and sustain a run to second and still had the guts to run the second fastest last 200m of the race. She draws to box seat in the run here and if I am having a bet in the race the $4 the place on her looks slightly overs. She is tough and she can run well again.
BON MISTRESS ($27) worked home well over 1300m in maiden grade at Sandown before appreciating the rise to the mile last start when winning arrogantly at Geelong. 2000m suits her down to the ground and she will be running on late.
TIP: I will wait and see here. The market will dictate plenty and watch for any tactic changes from the stewards.
RACE 4: GOTHIC STAKES, LISTED RACE, 3-Y-O, 1200M
They are going to go very quickly here. CRITIQUE (6) and DARK HALO (7) will try and cross from wide gates to settle 1-2 in the run. FACILE (8) will kick up and settle just behind them and the likes of PERILOUS FIGHTER (5) and PRINZERRO (4) never settle far away and will be in that on-speed bunch. The rest of the field should get there chance as they will go quick out in front.
FACILE ($3.40) proved as a juvenile that she could soak up a hot speed and keep kicking off of it and she did exactly that fresh in a strong 1100m maiden at Warwick Farm when beating Joliestar by half a length whilst putting 4L on third. The second horse in that race has subsequently been placed at listed level which franks the form and the race smashed the clock for essentially a maiden. I think she will box seat on a hot speed and she will have a better sustained gallop than the leaders and therefore should be able to run over them late.
DARK HALO ($3.30) is the main danger. The Maher and Eustace Colt has only had the one start but that was a brilliant maiden win at Wyong over 1100m when he led all the way and the race rated very well and went 2L faster than standard time. He was an arrogant winner there and jockey Jason Collett was kind to him over the last 100m. 1200m is ideal now, he gains James McDonald, and he will be very hard to run down after likely leading throughout. He still needs to improve but you would assume he would be.
PRINZERRO ($23) is the best roughie. He was good in a strong maiden at the Valley three back with Scentify running over him late and he was a strong winner two-back over 1300m at Sandown after leading all the way. He then went massively up in grade to the Caulfield Guineas and never really figured at all. He drops back in grade and distance which suits him and he should get a nice run from a low draw (3).
DON CORLEONE ($4) is the best of the rest. He is very skinny at the current odds though. He has been racing in good races but he just isn’t going any good. The Last start race didn’t rate well and Mark Zahra is going to have to be good to navigate a passage from near on last on the rails. The set up for him here is woeful and I am happy to risk him.
TIP: I like Facile here. 1.5U WIN #8 FACILE @$3.40.
RACE 5: THOUSAND GUINEAS PRELUDE, 3-Y-O, FILLIES, 1400M
It is a big field and I found it hard to map with any certainty. Capacity fields generally are run at a strong tempo though. The Waterhouse pair of OZ EMPRESS (5) and AZULA (7) are the likely leaders and will need to cross the horses kicking up from the inside. Those inside horses are likely to be ZOUKERETTE (6) and INHIBITIONS (8). LOVELY LOOKIN’ (12) and APACHE SONG (10) have the option to settle a bit closer from good barrier draws.
APACHE SONG ($18) looks well over the odds here. She ran into a very smart colt in just her second start and only went down by 1L to I am Unstoppable (subsequently G2 placed twice) at listed level over 1200m at Sandown which reads well for this race. She then went to the Vobis Gold Showdown when she was bumped around and never got a look at them for the entirety of the straight. She was spelled after that and resumed in a Moe Maiden over 1200m when belting her opposition by 6.5L. She has trialled well since that run and 1400m should hold no concerns. I thought she should be about a $7 chance so I am betting up here.
LOVELY LOOKIN’ ($5) is a deserved favourite and is the one I am saving on. She had a torrid run two-back over 1050m which is an unsuitable trip yet still ran over them late and her last start win was completely dominant up to the 1250m when winning by nearly 4L. Admittedly, they have ran slow early sectionals in those races but there is nothing saying she won’t be even better off a hot speed. She maps to get the run of the race and the McDonald camp don’t bring them here for nothing. Jamie Kah rides these types of horses well and I think it will be a good pairing.
BOSSY NIC ($10) has the map advantage over the horse who beat her in Coeur Volante ($6.50 here) fresh at the Valley. She ran the fastest last 200m of the race there which put the writing on the wall for a good preparation and she is always a horse I have had plenty of time for. The first time she sees 1400m is here and I think it will suit her down to the ground. As long as she gets a touch of luck from the awkward gate (10) she can be in the finish.
COEUR VOLANTE ($6.50) might be the best Filly in the race and that has to account for something. She probably could have won by further fresh at the Valley last start in a high rating race and when she saw 1300m in her first campaign she was dominant and looking for further. The wide barrier (17) means she is unders in the current market though. She will either be ridden for luck and go forward and risk getting posted very wide or have to go right back to near last and go wide to try and run over them. I would need $10 to be backing her based off that alone. I don’t think she has that much on them and therefore I am prepared to risk her.
TIP: 0.75U EACH WAY #10 APACHE SONG @$18/$4.80. 0.5U WIN #12 LOVEY LOOKIN’ @$5.
RACE 6: CAULFIELD SPRINT, GROUP TWO, 1000M
The speed will be on early as you would expect in a Group race over 1000m. INDIAN PACIFIC (3) and DOULL (7) will kick up from low draws to be right on the speed. MIDWEST (5) is the interesting galloper. Do they try and cross the speed and lead or do they take a sit? GENERATION (2) and GENERAL BEAU (4) should sit behind them and probably both get the runs of the race. The two backmarkers will settle back as you would expect.
GENERATION ($10) is the one I am prepared to speck at double figures. He was solid on resumption behind Asfoora and Midwest ($7 here) at this track over 1100m and he jumped awkwardly in the G1 Moir Stakes and then was restricted for room around the bend which gave him no chance. I think he is suited at the weights dropping down from 58.5kgs in a G1 to 54kgs in a G2 and the 1000m might suit him at this track. He is going to be able to sit just off a hot tempo and then dash for home. Craig Williams is in fine form and he strikes at 22% for Maher & Eustace which is another big positive.
SPACEWALK ($2.80) looks a touch skinny to my eye. He was excellent on resumption at Warwick Farm when rocketing home in meeting best closing splits, although he did have every right to run home strongly considering they went at a very slow tempo throughout that race. His ratings generally dip second-up but I do think he has come back in career best form. He should appreciate the strong tempo out in front and run home strongly. I would want a better price though – something near $4.
MIDWEST ($7) could be ready to bounce back. He was poor last start when being fought for the lead over 1100m at this track and they have opted to go back to the 1000m now. He beat home Spacewalk the last time he was third-up which reads well considering the price differential. The tactics will be fascinating. Do they lead at all costs or take a sit? There is an argument that suggests he needs to dominate in front to win. 1000m seems suitable for that but there is plenty of speed drawn inside him.
LOFTY STRIKE ($3.40) is under the odds. He gets a fair way back in his races and they are going to go quick early which means he could be spotting them a very big start. He hasn’t raced over 1000m before and I think there is a reason for that – they are too sharp for him. He is poorly weighted at 59kgs and I think he will drift in the market. I would be shocked if he didn’t – it would mean he has come back enormous.
TIP: Specking the value. 0.5U WIN #2 GENERATION @$10.
RACE 7: TRISTARC STAKES, GROUP TWO, MARES, 1400M
I think they will run at a moderate tempo in this affair. There is some speed engaged but not a whole lot of it. WALTZ ON BY (7) and WROTE TO ARATAKI (5) draw out wider and will likely cross to sit 1-2 in the run. SKEW WIFF (2) will use the inside gate to settle behind the leaders and CALL DI (9) won’t be to far away. The rest of the field generally settle midfield or worse and I don’t think that will change in this race.
WROTE TO ARATAKI ($6.50) is the bet. I thought two of her three runs this preparation have been excellent. She resumed in the Cockram Stakes over 1200m at this track when running on strongly and clocking a much faster final 600m sectional than favourite C’est Magique here ($3.80). She failed at Flemington second-up but then bounced back sharply when a luckless third over 1400m at Flemington last start. She was caught 3WNC the trip and still ran the third fastest final 200m split of the race. She should settle on the speed here, she has proven she can keep improving deep into a preparation, and providing she has come out of that tough run well she looks over the odds. She has the best turn of foot in the race.
SKEW WIFF ($4.80) has her first Australian start after being scratched a few weeks ago. That might deter some but I trust the stable has got her ready to go now. She brings over the best NZ form in the middle distance range. On resumption it took the talented Dragon Leap to beat her on the line and last start she turned the tables when beating that galloper and Australian Guineas winner Legarto over this distance at G1 level. She maps to get a nice run and if she can replicate that effort in Australia, she will be hard to hold out.
WALTZ ON BY ($7) has come back well and is a danger. She worked home well on resumption at this track over 1200m before going to Flemington and rising to 1400m and running on strongly to finish fourth behind Life Lessons and Princess Grace (Wrote to Arataki third there). Last time she was third-up she won the Bendigo Guineas and you can’t help but think this is a target race. She can settle on the speed here and run well.
C’EST MAGIQUE ($3.80) looks well under the odds at the current quote. I will excuse her for the first-up run because it was a fast tempo and she might have peaked late, but she didn’t have an excuse down is a horse with 1400m, even though they will probably run it slowly which should give her every chance too. She maps okay but does she have the ability to reel off a quick 400m split like some others in this race can? I am not so sure. I rated her an $8 chance so she is a lay bet for mine.
TIP: Hoping Wrote to Arataki has bounced out of his last start well. 1U WIN #5 WROTE TO ARATAKI @$6.50.
RACE 8: MOONGA STAKES, GROUP THREE, 1400M
I think BUFFALO RIVER (3) will dictate the speed here. He is the only properly fast horse early in the race and Celine Gaudray will be able to dictate. NUNTHORPE (10) will cross from the wide gate and probably settle outside/just behind the leader. FENDER (6) and THE FORTUNE TELLER (2) will likely be the next pair. TIMES SQUARE (9) is an interesting runner who has the option to settle closer from the low draw (3). The rest of the field will settle midfield or worse.
BUFFALO RIVER ($6) is one of the better bets on the program. Some might be concerned with the quick back up but he had done it before and the result of that was a win in this race in 2021 when he beat Zoutori and King Magnus. Celine Gaudray will have complete control over this race and with the form he is in at the moment he is a very tough horse to run down. I don’t think this race is any harder than the 2021 edition (if anything it is slightly easier) and the horse is going just as good. He loves this track and trip and finally draws a gate (5) where he won’t do much work in the run.
TIMES SQUARE ($8.50) is a horse with plenty of ability. She wasn’t completely disgraced in either the Doncaster Prelude or the Coolmore Legacy in the Autumn and she has trialled enormously leading into this first-up run. She has the option to settle closer from the low draw (3) and her overseas form indicates that she fires fresh. If there is late support for her, I would be worried considering it means she is ready to fire.
NUNTHORPE ($2.60) seems skinny at the current odds but is one of only three chances in the race regardless. She gets in with a light weight and she will sit on the speed which are all advantageous but she struggles to run out a truly run 1400m. She has been relatively dominant in her last two wins (against inferior opposition) but they have walked in both of those races which suit her short and sharp turn of foot. I think they will make it a bit more of a test than her previous runs and this is harder. Different set up, stronger tempo, harder opposition and we are getting $2.60. Should be closer to $4.50 in my opinion.
CLIMBING STAR ($8.50) isn’t the most genuine of horses but she was luckless in a similar race last start. If they overdo it in front, she might be the one to power over them late.
TIP: Sticking with the Buffalo. 1U EACH WAY #3 BUFFALO RIVER @$6/$2.
RACE 9: CAULFIELD CUP, GROUP ONE, HANDICAP, 2400M
It is the time honoured Caulfield Cup and what a cracking edition it is. I don’t think the speed will be too quick and they should run along at a moderate tempo. WEST WIND BLOWS (6) will kick up from the low draw and sit on the speed. GOLDMAN (13) draws wide and will need to muster early and is the likely leader. SPIRIT RIDGE (17) and RIGHT YOU ARE (11) won’t want to be far away and that is where the speed ends. MONTEFILIA (4) and HOO YA MAL (10) have the opportunity to settle closer in the run here.
WEST WIND BLOWS ($7) is the top seed. The rising four year old has form lines behind Paddington and Pyledriver over in England which read well and his Australian debut was terrific in the Turnbull Stakes over 2000m. He was trapped 4WNC early in the race and had to do a stack of work on a hot tempo (4L faster than standard to the 800m) to push up and sit on the speed. He then had the guts and ability to keep kicking late in the race to run the third fastest final 200m of the race. He beat the other horses that on the speed with him by 12L, 13L, and 6L. Providing he jumps well and has come out of that race in good order he will be hard to beat.
WITHOUT A FIGHT ($8) Shapes as the main danger and is the one I am saving on. The racing Victoria Vets have said he is lame and will re-inspect him tomorrow but I don’t know how much to trust him. The ratings he put up in Queensland in both the Lord Mayor’s Cup and the Q22 were outstanding and I thought his resuming run in the Underwood Stakes at this track was good. Nothing really made ground in that race but he did over the last 200m and ran the fifth fastest final 200m of the meeting. He maps to get a nice run around midfield and he will be powering home late.
HOO YA MAL ($17) is probably the value chance I give a winning chance too. You can forgive his second-up run and both runs either side of that have been terrific. He worked home well fresh at G2 level over a mile and last start over 1900m it took a low flying Montefelia ($14 here) to beat him. He gets 3.5kgs off that horse here and the 2400m is ideal for him. He should sit just behind the speed and be in it for a long way.
VALIANT KING ($16) is the relatively unknown import who could spike here carrying just 50kgs. He carried 56.5kgs when running a 1.5L second to Melbourne Cup favourite Vauban and that form line probably reads as well as the locals. He can show early speed and he will need to from the rails draw (1) but if things go his way early in the race, he could find himself in a perfect position. Joseph O’Brien doesn’t bring them here for nothing and their staying ranks are better than ours.
TIP: Backing two here. 1U WIN #6 WEST WIND BLOWS @$7/0.75U WIN #2 WITHOUT A FIGHT @$8.
RACE 10: ALINGHI STAKES, LISTED RACE, FILLIES & MARES, 1100M
I think they will go quick in the final event on Caulfield Cup day. VIVANE (5) will try and cross them to lead but may have to spend some tickets beating out both HYPOTHETICAL (6) and AITCH TWO OH (1) for the lead as they will kick up from low draws. GHAANATI (11) is caught in no mans land from the wide gate and might have to drift back. WILLINGA BEAST (8) won’t want to get too far back either.
AITCH TWO OH ($13) looks over the odds in the last. She was beaten 2L by Grey River first-up in South Australia and I thought the run had merit considering she led a hot tempo and kept kicking to run second and beat some handy horses home. I feel like this is a deliberate target race for this Mare. Her best racing seems to happen second-up. The last time she was second-up she put up a good figure when winning down the straight in Cup week and in her other second-up start she ran 1.5L off See You in Heaven. Craig Williams and David Jolly strike at 31% and we know this horse can sustain speed off high pressure. If she does that here she is going to be hard to run down because those back in the field will be spotting her a start.
VIVIANE ($2.80) is a winning chance but should be a touch longer in the market. She is looking for her seventh win on the bounce and she just keeps on taking the step up in grade. The form coming out of the race she last won is terrific with She dances a subsequent winner and she beat that horse by 3L after leading alongside it. She will put herself on the speed here and she will probably look the winner at some stage. I would love to know who made the jockey change on she and my on top selection.
LITTLE MISS KUBI ($12) rattled home over 955m at the Valley last start but that race was much easier than this is. She was strong late in her run two-back as well which means she is going well. She will be the one running on late if they go too quick in front.
HYPOTHETICAL ($5) was terrible last start but she was sweating up horrendously when getting loaded so it might be worth forgiving. She ran terrific late splits fresh behind Acromantula and she races well third-up. She could end up box seating which will be the run of the race with the way this race sets up.
TIP: 0.5U EACH WAY #1 AITCH TWO OH @$13/$3.50 in the get out.
STAKING PLAN:
RACE 1: 2U WIN #2 BRAVE MEAD @$2.80
RACE 3: TBC
RACE 4: 1.5U WIN #8 FACILE @$3.40
RACE 5: 0.75U EACH WAY #10 APACHE SONG @$18/$4.80/0.5U WIN #12 LOVELY LOOKIN’ @$5
RACE 6: 0.5U WIN #2 GENERATION @$10
RACE 7: 1U WIN #5 WROTE TO ARATAKI @$6.50
RACE 8: 1U EACH WAY #3 BUFFALO RIVER @$6/$2
RACE 9: 1U WIN #6 WEST WIND BLOWS @$7/0.75U WIN #2 WITHOUT A FIGHT @$8
RACE 10: 0.5U EACH WAY #1 AITCH TWO OH @$13/$3.50
TOTAL OUTLAY: 11.75U