After aiming to get back on track last week, our tips were smashed with scratching and yet another bunch of placings. The last month my form in Sydney has only been so-so, with all the success coming in Melbourne. Time to fix that! The bounce back is coming!
Track Report: The track currently is rated a Soft 6 thanks to some midweek down pours, but with a 32 Degree Day expected on Saturday expect the upgrades to be coming. The rail goes out 3 metres for the entire circuit which is borderline when the leaders really start to come into play at Rosehill so make sure to monitor it.
rACE 1 – 1800m Cincotta Chemist (Bm78)
Boring to kick off with a favourite but I have to be with Rise To It in this one. Son of so you think that is flying right now for the Maher and Eustace camp, Dylan Gibbons should give him an absolute peach of a steer, I am all over him to kick off the day with a win hopefully.
Touristic is one that is praying there is some juice left in the track come the first of the day because he is chalk and cheese in the wet compared to dry. With his pet conditions however, he should be putting in a strong effort, especially after running decently behind Iknowastar who recently tore through the bench mark grades.
First Light is on the quick back up and to his credit he ran far better than I thought he would last week in a much tougher field than this. So he only has to hold his form to be right in the finish of this one.
New Republic rounds out the exotics as a bit of a value injection after he tried to go a bit too out of his depth last start in the Five Diamonds Prelude. He drops back to a much more suitable class and a Top 4 wouldn’t shock.
Selections: 9-1-6-4
Suggested Bet: Rise To It Win
Race 2 – 2400m Petaluma (Bm78)
Playing the straight bat once again here with Caboche. Comes here off the week back up where he just peaked a little but in the run at the 1900M mark. However, he will take fitness from that and be ready to fire here 4th up, a set up that has produced 2 of his 3 wins.
Loving Cilla desperately wants it to dry out as she runs like a rusted bike in the wet. If she gets her conditions, she is one of the very few I could see beating the favourite. She is running very consistently this prep and has been knocking on the door of a win for a while now.
Queenmaker probably the last horse I would entertain as a winning chance. Comes out of the same race as the favourite last week when I was on her and she just didn’t really kick har enough to get into the placings but she is consistent and gutsy, so a better showing this time around wouldn’t surprise.
Fathers Day rounds out the selections as more of a place chance in my mind, however, he is a must in your exotics.
Selections: 1-10-4-5
Suggested Bet: Caboche Win
Race 3 – 1100M Tab (Bm78)
Spirit Queen for me. Not often you see a horse go from QLD racing and have Maher and Eustace come in, take over the training job and bring them to Sydney. It intrigues me, specially after her impressive debut for the camp was a solid near miss loss on the Kensington track. She looks to be in for a good prep.
Eagle’s Nest has been in the best form of her career lately with 2 wins from 2 starts thus far in her prep. Both have been lead all the way jobs and if the track has any sort of leaders bias in it, she will be extremely tough to beat.
Dollar Magic is another that will appreciate it if the track is playing towards the leaders as she has constantly come up just short to better horses nabbing her in the final stages this prep. I tried to get on her last week but she scratched, so if she wins here, I will be quite mad I didn’t stick fat. One of the better chances.
Miss Hellfire first up off a bleed back in the Winter where she won some decent races for the Benchmark grade. Even with the bleed she split some decent horses as well, so plenty of respect going her way. If she brings her best, she is the X Factor.
Selections: 3-5-2-1
Suggested Bet: Spirit Queen Win
Race 4 – Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
Call Me Louis is the one I will throw some money at each way for a whack at the stumps. Running decently without doing too much this prep and with a liking for the distance and dry conditions, him featuring in the money wouldn’t surprise me.
On Paper, The Dramatist should be favourite in my mind. But that barrier could be an absolute killer. He’ll most likely get very far back and spot them a fair bit. However, if Jones can be proactive enough to make sure he doesn’t have to make up too many lengths in the final stages he can most certainly threaten.
Bandasha and Monte Outlander share the top of the market and are a must in exotics, but long time readers know my motto with favourites and Highways, thus, they won’t have my money.
Selections: 12-10-2-11
Suggested Bet: Call Me Louis Each Way
Race 5 – 1200M Midway (Bm72)
Vindication for me yet again. Feel like I am beating myself over the head with a brick. I am always on and he always runs well but just without winning. But we can get each way odds for him and his racing style suggests he will have every chance in the world. As long as it is dry and he can get somewhere near the front then I think he is a great chance.
Flying Destiny is simply overs for me. Dylan Gibbons booked, can go in all conditions, should be somewhere near the front, 1/1 at the distance and has form behind Peace Officer. All things point to a positive showing.
Shadows Of Love on the other hand is unders in my mind. Is she a winning chance? Absolutely. Is she a $2.30 chance? Absolutely not. She should be there/thereabouts but I can’t entertain a bet on her at such a short quote.
Bowery Breeze does some of her best work at this distance and when fresh, so this is a winning formula for her that could see her right in the finish.
Selections: 5-1-12-8
Suggested Bet: Vindication Each Way
Race 6 – 1400M James Squire Hot Danish Stakes
Call Di for me, bit of an omen bet,as long time listeners would know. She has been running only fairly this prep, but to her credit they have tried her as a sprinter a couple times, which is something she is most certainly not. When she got back to the 1400m at Caulfield last start she flew, so she can 100% win here.
Royal Merchant has the form to be getting the job done here, especially if it stays wet. She was plain first up over the 1200m here, but she improved very sharply to finish within a couple lengths of Espiona in The Invitation over 1400m last start. Gets an easier field and should dictate the race, potentially leading all the way.
Roots’ run in The Invitaion reads worse than it was finishing 12th, but it was a blanket finish race where she was only a few lengths off of them. She is a really strong horse on her day so she should definitely be considered a threat.
Russian Conquest was super to get within half a length to Gringotts last start and that is a horse I have a very high opinion of, as you will read later in the article. Can definitely find her way into the money.
Selections: 4-1-2-7
Suggested Bet: Call Di Win
Race 7 – 1100M Inglis Golden Gift
Going to have 2 bets in this one, as I am often inclined to in the open 2YO affairs.
Boy I don’t love the price in a 2-Year-Old Race, but on face value Shangri La Express is the top chance and all things considered should be winning. Has the race fitness, the speed to overcome the wide draw and the Waterhouse polish to be getting the job done.
Trafalgar Square needs a scratching to gain a start, but if she gets in she is certainly a chance. As a filly, she gets a little bit of a weight advantage on the boys and after some very solid trials she can certainly threaten and potentially punch her tick to the Golden Slipper.
Scampi had the horse racing community declaring him a moral in the Breeders Plate thanks to his outstanding trial at the first session of Juvenile Trials in September. Too bad he flopped hard. Gets his chance to redeem himself here and with a bit more education and the fitness advantage a win would be far from surprising.
Volatile gives me really strong Empire Of Japan vibes. Unfortunately, he couldn’t quite make up the distance he spotted them in the Breeder’s Plate and since I was on him I was disappointed. But with a more positive steer her he has the turn of foot to be winning.
Selections: 1-15-4-5
Suggested Bet: Shangri La Express Win and Trafalgar Square Each Way
Race 8 – 1800M Five Diamonds
A really strong field has been built for the 2nd edition of this race and as such it is open as anything, thus, I am inclined to have multiple bets.
The first one is Unspoken. This for sure a new level for him, but he deserves the jump and is racing strong enough to be included in this calibre of race in my opinion. He has really come into his own in this 2nd prep down under and is 3/3, the latest of which was an arrogant lead from start to finish job, even though he is usually a run on horse. I have a big opinion of him and i think he will run super here.
The 2nd play is a small one on Fawkner Park. I have a very high opinion of this horse, I think he can do some great things in the Autumn, however, he will likely give them a large start here that I am unsure he can chase down, however, in saying that, he has a wicked turn of foot that could easily see him finding his way into the money.
Antino is obviously a deserved favourite considering his form finishing 2nd in both the Crystal Mile and the Toorak Handicap. He gets in form jockey Sam Clipperton and a barrier where he will do absolutely no work. Many in the industry have already declared him the winner and I wouldn’t be shocked if they are right.
Jimmi Hendrix is the big market/yard watch. They’ve kept this import in work the whole time straight off the plane trying to get him to this race so it will be interesting to see if the strategy has worked. He is a Royal Ascot winner so he is to be highly respected.
Selections: 12-16-3-6
Suggested Bet: Unspoken Each Way and Fawkner Park Each Way
Race 9 – 1400M Ranvet (Bm78)
Gringotts has to carry a lot of weight but to be honest he is just better than this crew and he is one of my more confident bets at Rosehill on the weekend. He put away his competition with a gutsy effort on spring champion stakes day and I feel like his run will be a copy and paste job. Jump, settle midfield, get going late and get over the top of them.
Is Mars Mission back? This time last year the horse was flying and then he proceeded to do absolutely nothing until last weekend where he managed to win again and he did it quite nicely to be fair to him. With another peach from Tommy Berry he is every chance of going back to back.
Atmosphere the only other horse I could entertain realistically. Was fine first up without winning and he will only improve on it. he does his best work when 3rd up, so he is a clear danger to the favourite.
Felix Majestic goes in as a pure exotics play as I would be surprised to see any of the top 2 not winning.
Selections: 1-6-2-5
Suggested Bet: Gringotts Win (BEST BET)
Race 10 – 1200M Rosehill Bowling Club (Bm78)
I was a big Plundering guy last prep, a big one, which made it hurt that he ran 2nd a staggering 4 times straight, all by narrow margins. Hopefully, Schofield can be nice and proactive, strap himself to the back of the leaders and prove to be the strongest late.
Wizard Of Oz has been battling away this prep looking for a win in a grade better than a Highway and he deserves one, always running well in races he has no business in doing so. He will give them something to chase.
Contemporary was a horse, much like Plundering, who always knocked on the door of winning during the Winter, but found little success, finishing a narrow 3rd 3 times straight to some decent horses. If the track is allowing ground to be made up throughout the day he will be the one to watch late.
Gustosisimo is lightly raced and full of upside, but I don’t want to jump into that price for his first go at a Saturday metro grade race.
Selections: 4-9-5-10
Suggested Bet: Plundering Win
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Rise To Win
Race 2: Caboche
Race 3: Spirit Queen
Race 4: Call Me Louis
Race 5: Vindication
Race 6: Call Di
Race 7: Shangri La Express
Race 8: Unspoken
Race 9: Gringotts (BEST BET)
Race 10: Plundering
The Quaddie
Race 7: 1,4,5,15
Race 8: 3,5,6,7,8,9,12,13,16
Race 9: 1,2,6
Race 10: 4,5,8,10
$50 gets you 11%
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