Well wasn’t last week a step back in the right direction with a few strong wins on the card. We were inches away from an even bigger week but we can’t get greedy. The march to be back in the green continues!
Track Report: The weather is fine, the track is Good 4 currently but with a little bit of rain expected we should have some cushioning, soft 5-6 max so be wary of that, look for horses that could do Good or Soft. Rail in true position, every horse should get its chance.
Race 1 – 900M Nzb Airfreight Max Lees Classic
I am going to side with Gram. His trials have been pleasing to the eye as he has just trucked in behind the leaders without being pushed too much which indicates that he hopefully has a big engine that he can utilise here. Could have run in the Golden Gift but scratched specifically for this. Well placed and can win.
Market Magic on face value is probably a deserved favourite. He has a winning trainer/jockey combo when it comes to these types of races, as well as some strong trial form. Throw in the fact he comes from a winning pedigree and you have all the makings for a strong 2YO. He is a massive yard watch to see how he is presented.
Efharisto makes his debut as yet another one of the many Blue Point sired horses going around this Spring and we have yet to really see what this sire can do as his progeny have been a mixed bag so far. His trials have been winners and the fact that Lloyd is booked here instead of Gram (Who he rode in the trials) maybe hints to which horse he is most confident in.
Erno’s Cube comes out of the Breeder’s Plate where he didn’t really fire a shot, but with that race experience and fitness you can really only expect improvement.
Selections: 1-2-4-5
Suggested Bet: Gram Win
Race 2 – 1600M Karaka 2024 Midway (Bm72)
Gotta be with Toesonthenose here. Shoutout to the boys I met on Golden Eagle day that were the owners and kindly let us into the owners section for the Four Pillars. They didn’t get the win that day, they never were considering it jumped from Barrier 18 but boy it was a great run considering it was 5 wide no cover the whole way round. Should get a better chance here and has an easier field to contend with.
Resistible is a narrow 2nd favourite in the market and goes in as my narrow second selection as well. She ran a solid 4th behind Sweet Mercy in the Four Pillars Midway after being run down late. She should get a soft lead here as he is one of the only horses that like to push forward and will be very hard to get past.
Modern Millie also comes out of the Four Pillars and was just over 2 lengths off of the finish and can improve off that run, especially if the track ends up in the soft range as she is a different horse in the wet.
Irish Kisses rounds out selections thanks to her love of the distance and track.
Selections: 2-5-6-1
Suggested Bet: Toesonthenose WIn
Race 3 – 1600M Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
Gonna take a solid whack at the stumps each way here with Imatruestar. It ran really well, kicked on down the straight and finished within 2 lengths of the winner. The rise in distance should suit it now and considering his run last week I don’t see why he is at a large price considering he finds an easier field and he drops in weight.
Satay Chicken led for most of the race til gunned down late at Doomben and I think it was just because he couldn’t quite stay the 2000m. Back in trip now to the mile which suits him much better. 3 goes at the trip and has placed once and grabbed a win as well. Josh Parr is flying right now and can certainly win.
Lecia Model has 2 wins from 2 starts this prep and has looked very smart in both outings, leading from start to finish. This is her toughest test to date and if she can get the win here at big odds she can become a Saturday regular.
Rematch is far too short as the favourite here, especially considering the ugly barrier and it went down as a $1.28 favourite last start. Lightly raced and has upside to come, but you can go broke diving into $2.50 favourites in Highways.
Selections: 1-4-15-2
Suggested Bet: Imatruestar Each Way
Race 4 – 1400M Nzb Insurance (Bm78)
I will take the favourite in Portray. She should get the lead pretty easily in a race that lacks early pace and dictate the contest from the front. She has good form behind Gringotts when being narrowly beaten by him a couple of weeks ago in a very tight finish. Back to her own sex grade now will suit her and gets Sydney’s current top jockey on, I am happy with the price and I think she just wins.
Fall For Cindy is probably the only other horse who I can see winning this if I am being brutally honest. Her form behind Gringotts and I’mintown reads spectacular for a race like this. She comes right into it if there is some juice in the track as well.
Chase My Crown and Hide Your Heart rounds out selections for exotics.
Selections: 3-4-8-6
Suggested Bet: Portray Win (Best Bet)
Race 5 – 1850M Alf Kneebone Trans-Tasman Trophy (Bm88)
Wineglass Bay for me in this one. He is what you see is what you get and is one of the more genuine benchmark horses going around in Sydney right now. He has run respectably in both a Newcastle Cup and Metropolitan considering that this is probably his true level. He will definitely get the trip which is unknown for some of these other horses. He is a great each way play.
I’mintown is the boom import here after absolutely smashing them on Golden Eagle day leading throughout. However, I am very unsure if he gets the distance here. If he does, boy he will be super hard to beat. But I am not willing to risk it for that low price.
Pervade finally got back on track last start by knocking off some decent horses. Flew late to get that win as well which indicates the longer distance should suit. With some juice in the track I would think he would be the hardest to beat in the entire field.
Dirty Rascal slots in as the fourth pick. Not entirely convinced he is a winning chance, but is Waterhouse and Bott have gotten him fit and firing under their new tutelage a placing certainly wouldn’t shock.
Selections: 7-12-6-11
Suggested Bet: Wineglass Bay Each Way
Race 6 – 2300M New Zealand Bloodstock The Beauford Hcp
Happy to give Canberra Legend a chance here after he failed to fire in his Aussie debut. He has been left in the hands of Chris Waller who is of course probably the best person he could have been given to. His last time running 2nd up resulted in a win, he’ll be hoping for rain because he prefers to get his toe in, but I think he just reads better than the locals.
Stockman was absolutely flying in the Rosehill Gold Cup, finishing under a length off of the winner. Gets an extra few hundred metres here and Nash Rawiller on board. If there is a little juice in the track he can get the job done for sure.
Numerian has to carry a lot of weight but with his form he is probably deserved of it. He drops from much superior company and he is the only real pace in the race. With that soft lead he can take charge, get a quick sectional off and steal the race.
Sky Lab rounds out selections. He has a liking for the track and with a touch of rain predicted he will thrive.
Selections: 9-2-1-3
Suggested Bet: Canberra Legend Win
Race 7 – 1600M New Zealand Bloodstock 3Yo Spring Stakes
I am going to be with the Dylan Gibbons ridden, Freedman trained Just In Time. She gets a slight weight swing on the boys as she is one of the few fillies having a crack. She won at this track on debut very nicely before running quite respectably down the straight at Flemington on Derby day behind some very talented horses.
Invincible Spy will push right to the front and look the winner for a long way. Has experience at these provincial sort of tracks which will help and has untapped potential with just 2 starts, but 2 very smart wins.
Until Vahalla is the other favourite in the race and will be one of the strongest late. Maher and Eustace trained and has been super in her 2 starts to date. She flew home to narrowly miss on debut before motoring over them with ease when 2nd up. If Rachel King can put her in the right spot, she can repeat that here.
Metallic Ruler is at $21 when she is 1/1 at the track, running very well so far this prep and only has one query, the distance. Solid roughie chance.
Selections: 12-3-9-6
Suggested Bet: Just In Time Each Way
Race 8 – 1300M The Newcastle Herald Hunter
I will stick fat with Opal Ridge who never got a chance last start behind Espiona in the invitation. She just got boxed in on the fence and was faced with no way through and just ended up jogging the last little bit as a result. Shouldn’t have that problem this time around from that 14th barrier.
King Of Sparta is a horse I have a lot of time for. For a while now he has been put in races that were probably a touch too deep for him, however, this is more his level. He should sit right behind the speed and try and launch over them late.
Coal Crusher has the A Grade form to be winning a race like this. Last start came behind Private Eye, Bella Nipotina and Think About It in the Giga Kick Stakes and before that he finished close to I Am Me in the Sydney Stakes. This is much easier and he can definitely win and win well.
Gravina shouldn’t be at the price he finds himself at. He might have never won at this distance or in the dry but he has constantly found himself finishing in the placings. He could finally get his win here.
Selections: 14-3-6-16
Suggested Bet: Opal Ridge Each Way
Race 9 – 1600M Nzb Kurt Fearnley Legend Mile (Bm78)
Sweet Mercy for me. Dylan Gibbons really gave her a 10/10 ride to get her through a gap and launch past them to get up. Gibbons jumping off is a downer but I can only imagine she will improve with more room on the bigger track as well as a longer distance to get her gears going.
Manbehindthemoney resumes here as top weight but Stanely’s weight claim gets some of that off the back. He is used to much stronger company than this so if he brings his best he can get the job done. Watch for him late.
The Hungarian is a solid roughie chance. Loves the track, loves the distance and is flying this prep. This is a much harder task, but drops a whopping 6.5kg, a win wouldn’t shock one bit.
Tavi Team didn’t do too much when resuming but he should improve with the fitness he takes from it. Of course, as favourite, he is a chance, I just can’t entertain the price.
Selections: 8-1-10-11
Suggested Bet: Sweet Mercy Win
Race 10 – 1300M Tab Karaka Millions (Bm94)
Much Much Better for me. Still crying I didn’t go it last start when he got up a big odds when I have been on him every single start in his career. He is a smart horse that can really rev his motor when they press the button and he always pops his head up from time to time and runs a really strong race. This is an easier field than his last in my opinion, which is why he has to carry so much weight, but Anna Roper’s claim gets 3kg off of that and she is riding very strongly at the moment so I can 100% see him getting to the front and kicking all the way down the straight.
Ita will carry absolute feathers at 50kg and considering her consistency she definitely shouldn’t be a $30 chance in the market. You know what you are going to get with her, a solid, gutsy run where she will likely launch late and perhaps find her way into the money.
Capo Strada comes here off of a smart win on Cup Day. He has found winning form and can go on with it now. 3/3 at the distance, can do all conditions and won the only other time he has been 4th up.
Ka Bling rounds out selections thanks to his reliability. Hasn’t won at the track or the distance but he is always around the mark. Certainly a placing chance.
Selections: 1-12-7-8
Suggested Bet: Much Much Better Win
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Gram
Race 2: Toesonthenose
Race 3: Imatruestar
Race 4: Portray (BEST BET)
Race 5: Wineglass Bay
Race 6: Canberra Legend
Race 7: Just In Time
Race 8: Opal Ridge
Race 9: Sweet Mercy
Race 10: Much Much Better
Quaddie
Race 7: 3,9,12
Race 8: 1,3,6,14,16
Race 9: 1,8,11
Race 10: 1,6,7,8,12
$50 gets you 22%
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