Back on track last week that is for sure. My Best Bet was absolutely shocking, I will admit that, but other than that we picked up some nice wins that definitely would have seen us in the profit. So, let’s continue that and finish off the carnival with a bang!
Track Report: Good 4 right now but Rain on Friday and a thunderstorm on race day is predicted so beware of that, mak sure to pick horses that are versatile enough to win in anything. Rail in the true position so every horse should get their chance realistically.
Race 1 – 2000m Canadian Club (Bm78)
Straight out, I am going Touristic. Barely lost last start and that was to a very promising horse and had to carry almost 7 kgs more so that proved to be the ultimate deciding factor in the race. Has to carry a bit of weight here again but that is just because he is better than this crew. He can win and win well here.
Lyrical Gangster comes off of a nice win on the Kenso track in the midweeks. Drops weight and jumps in distance with the rise in grade but that is a very ideal set up for him. Schiller in red hot form as well, worthy favourite.
Lady Redwood is well placed and can 100% win this at big odds, despite what the market says about her. Loves this distance, loves this track. Can upset.
Unanimous comes out of the same race as Touristic and should be respected, especially with JMac on board.
Selections: 1-10-9-3
Suggested Bet: Touristic Win
Race 2 – 1400M Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
Don’t mind Zoutica in the Highway. This horse is lightly raced and has a lot of potential as he has never run a bad race. Loves the distance, does some of his best work when fresh and gets a jockey who knows how to ride a leader. Should run well.
Tribeca Star is a worthy favourite and all things considered, should be saluting. However, I can never get interested in a $2.50 favourite in a highway. But a he will fly late and be a worthy bet if you are a braver man than me.
Unrelenting hates this distance, but is arguably in the best form of his career, so maybe he can break that hoodoo? Has been running really well without winning this prep behind some very solid Highway caliber horses. Certainly not the worst chance.
Mosgold is flying through the country right now and 100% deserves her chance at the Highway now. She’ll push towards the front from the wide barrier and look a threat for a long way.
Selections: 5-2-4-6
Suggested Bet: Zoutica Win
Race 3 – 1200M Evergreen Turf Australia (Bm78)
I will be on my longtime favourite Smashing Eagle. His blistering turn of foot always has him charging into the placings but he always presses the button a touch too late which causes him to come up on short. But if the market continually has him at each way odds of course I am going to back him. Him to place is honestly one of my more confident bets of the day.
Cheerful Legend has to go in as the 2nd pick, purely because Nick Owns him and they are confident he can bounce back after a quick let up. Has won a trial since that freshen up as well, which adds to the confidence.
Contemporary is double nommed for the day and will remain a threat in whichever race he chooses. Consistent Godolphin gelding that will threaten for sure.
Plundering is always a consistent character that is somewhere are around the finish. Backed him last start and he wasn’t terrible as his unplaced run suggests. He just peaked on the run and will take fitness coming out of that. That was the first time he missed a placing at the distance as well. Can bounce back.
Selections: 7-2-8-6
Suggested Bet: Smashing Eagle Each Way (Place BEST BET)
Race 4 – 1200M Pfd Food Services (Bm78)
Dollar Magic at $17, stop it, surely not! Considering how consistent she has been this prep that is madness. She will jump on the bunny from that inside barrier, go right to the front and attempt to dictate the race all the way to the line. She has constantly been run down by one better this prep, but she has the perfect racing pattern to be in the finish here.
Shohei fell flat on her face last start, but perhaps she needed the run? Hard to make that excuse when usually she loves running fresh. But she is classy and very capable of bouncing back at odds.
Rocketeer Girl is flying right now, coming off a gutsy win at Canterbury last Friday. She is lightly raced for the Waterhouse Camp and Bayliss is in great form, they can repeat their efforts here.
Miss Hellfire is always there/thereabouts and as such should be respected. Yet to miss the placings when 2nd up.
Selections: 4-6-10-3
Suggested Bet: Dollar Magic
Race 5 – 1400M Midway (Bm72)
Eau De Vie for me in the weekly midway contest. Chad Schofield booked and his form has been solid lately as he starts to get on more of a roll after a rough patch there early on in Spring, he also has a 33% Strike rate at this track so far this season so I think he will give this Freedman trained horse a peach. Gets down in weights, comes off a win, can do all conditions, she should be somewhere in the finish.
Burning Need comes here after a very solid run in the Four Pillars Midway when finishing 3rd behind Sweet Mercy. This is an easier field than that and the fact that she absolutely loves running at her home track, she is a great chance.
Cuban Granchino another hometown hope. She has only ever missed the placings once when running here and has only missed the placings once at the distance. Well placed and ready to win.
Victory Lane is another, you guessed it, home track hero looking to win here. Has been running solidly without threatening, but can bounce back with a solid barrier and a proven Kembla jockey/trainer combo.
Selections: 11-4-5-7
Suggested Bet: Eau De Vie Win
Race 6 – 1600M Traffic Logistics (Bm88)
I like King Of The Castle here back to 1600. Last week he finished a couple lengths off Wineglass Bay which is strong form to go off, plus he didn’t really stay, so back to his pet distance here which should put him in good stead. He can also do any sort of conditions so the rain won’t bother him. He should park behind the pace and be one of the strongest late.
Loch Eagle is a deserved favourite after absolutely smashing them on Cup day. Nash sticks after that effort and they are definitely the strongest threat in the race, as the market suggests.
Tazaral has the form behind Just Fine, which mind you hasn’t stacked up amazingly since, however, G1 form, is G1 form. So with that considered, he certainly needs to be respected.
Substantial comes out of a race at Flemington on Cup day, where he was well held behind impressive winner Pascero. I respect that horse very highly and believe it is solid form to go off.
Selections: 3-1-5-9
Suggested Bet: King Of The Castle Each Way
Race 7 – 1600M The Illawarra Mercury Gong
Osipenko, all things considered, should piss in. Romantic Warrior, Mr Brightside, Fangirl, Princess Grace, Alligator Blood, literally all of the best Milers in the country combine to form this horse’s formlines. Would be shocked to see him out of the finish, especially now that JMac jumps on first time.
Waterford is another one I just want to have a cheeky speck on, as I have been on him many times in his career and I have that bad feeling he is going to win without me. Finally draws a barrier that suits his style. Should be able to tuck in, cross heels and storm home.
Detonator Jack is flying without winning at the moment. Narrowly missed in the Five Diamonds Prelude and then it was a rinse and repeat job in the actual Five Diamonds and that is strong form for a race like this.
Cepheus is a must for all exotics. Has to carry a bit of weight, but for good reason. He is in the form of his career and should look the winner for a long way.
Selections: 3-11-9-1
Suggested Bet: Osipenko Win and Waterford Each Way
Race 8 – 1000M The Warra
Malkovich for me. I always get sucked in by trial form and this horse has it in spades. His latest trial he beat Overpass, the one before that was behind Iowna Merc, which is a horse I have a big opinion of. But Malkovich runs like a bomb fresh so while the barrier isn’t amazing he should push to the front and be hard to get past
Recommendation has barely put a foot wrong in his entire career and considering it is a Maher and Eustace raider, he should be respected. Expect him to be up near the front and be one of the horses they need to chase down.
Dragonstone has become the ultimate money muncher for many punters who continue to fall into the trap of backing him off a flashing run into the placings. That’s his whole MO really. But he always can pop his head of for a win and is a must for exotics really.
Hard to argue with Brudnell’s form, but I can’t see why it is favourite, certainly a strong chance, but simply an exotic filler for me.
Selections: 3-7-6-12
Suggested Bet: Malkovich Each Way
Race 9 – 1000M Elite Sand & Soil (Bm78)
Headwall will do me. This horse has never run a bad race in its life and I don’t expect it to start this weekend. 5 starts for 2 wins and 3 narrow placings and in some pretty decent company too mind you. He bumped into Airman last prep and he wasn’t far off him, Airman is now running around in some of the country’s best sprint races. He will likely get a bit back, but watch him fly around the turn.
Emperor is the short favourite here and it’s tough to work out the price. Comes out of the Highway grade and the win wasn’t super special. However, he is lightly raced and has a lot of upside, this is his acid test to see if he can hang with the big boys. Certainly a massive watch in the yard.
Squad is the Victorian raider looking to come up here and show them how it’s done down south. His form reads excellently for a race like this. ⅔ first up, ¾ at the distance, this can certainly be the horse to get Zac Lloyd back in form.
Mabel is what you see is what you get. You know you’ll get an honest run, with every effort put in possible. She’ll have little excuses to be out of the finish I would say.
Selections: 5-4-9-7
Suggested Bet: Headwall Win
Race 10 – 1400M Abax Contracting (Bm78)
The boy in blue Contemporary for me. Ran into a solid horse in Gustosisimo last start at Rosehill and should be respected off that run. He was flying late and just couldn’t get his nose in front. Needs a scratching to gain a start but that shouldn’t be an issue, one horse is bound to scratch. Conditions won’t bother him and he does his best work 3rd up, he is prime for a strong run.
Peace Officer is a solid roughie chance. He has either found himself winning midways, or running solidly in grades such as this. He gets down in weights for the first time in a while and should present as a solid chance for the value punters in the get out stakes.
Crafty Eagle comes in as the favourite and last time he raced at a Saturday metro level meet, he won a Midway nicely. His trials to get ready for this have been nice enough to suggest a strong run first up.
Danaustar scares me a bit. Maher and Eustace rarely send a bad horse and the fact that the money is constantly coming for him in the market has me reaching for his button when creating my boxed trifectas and first fours to cover my ass in case he smokes them.
Selections: 17-3-4-5
Suggested Bet: Contemporary Each Way
Top Selections
Race 1: Touristic
Race 2: Zoutica
Race 3: Smashing Eagle (Place BEST BET)
Race 4: Dollar Magic
Race 5: Eau De Vie
Race 6: King Of The Castle
Race 7: Osipenko
Race 8: Malkovich
Race 9: Headwall
Race 10: Contemporary
Quaddie
Race 7: 3, 11
Race 8: 3, 6, 7, 8, 12
Race 9: 3, 5, 7, 9
Race 10: 3, 4, 5, 6, 11, 17
$50 gets you 20.4%
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.