Well, last week was a bust, as hardly any of my tips ended up running due to the ridiculous amounts of scratchings and those that did run weren’t too amazing. But like I said, most of the tips didn’t even runs so it was a bit of a write off. However, we move on, we are on the home straight now of the year and my first time providing weekly rundowns each and every Saturday. 5 more weeks to go and 5 more previews, let’s fill them with winners!
Track Report: Plenty of rain midweek and some showers expected on race day should have the track somewhere in the Soft 5-7 range. I can’t see it getting to the Heavy range, neither can I see it drying out so much we see Good, the only way we do is if the weatherman get it horribly wrong and a 30 degree day without a cloud in the sky is produced. Rail in the true position meaning every horse should get its chance.
Race 1 – 1100M Kia Ora Prague Hcp
Trafalgar Square is the one for me in this one, as my good friend owns it and they are very confident it can be a solid early 2YO type. Didn’t quite hold on when on Debut, but was trapped wide and peaked in fitness. Fitter, smarter, better draw here, should push right to the front and be hard to run down.
Storm Boy is a very deserved favourite. He’s been dubbed Bomb proof by a lot of analysts due to his incredibly strict trials with 2/2 wins with a combined margin of over 9 lengths. He comes from a winning camp with 2YO’s and one of the best 2YO jockeys out there. He’ll be extremely hard to beat, just can’t entertain a horse under $2 in a 2YO contest.
Canara is a solid chance with the race experience. She was well beaten by a nice looking horse when first up, but ran on solidly that suggests she’d take fitness and experience from it.
Traffic Warden rounds out selections. The Lloyd/Cummings combo is always a decent set up and considering his solid trials, he deserves to be in the exotics.
Selections: 7-2-6-3
Suggested Bet: Trafalgar Square Win
Race 2 – 2000M Midway (Bm72)
Celestial Fury has yet to tick the 2000m box but he’s never been far away. He’s been running really well this prep, especially since Mitchell Beer has jumped back on. He knows the horse better than anyone and he sticks here. Rain affected ground probably brings his chances up a notch, so that is a plus. Expect him to take a commanding lead and prove hard to run down.
California Grass is one that will get the distance for sure as she has run well up to 2400m. Runs at her best when wet and is ready to peak 3rd up. The only negative is the barrier, but as long as she doesn’t get too far back she can win.
Brynner goes in as a solid chance despite not winning at 2000m from 5 goes. Does solid work in the wet and is coming off a win, which certainly raises the confidence that he could do something here. Can run over the top of them late.
Xtrarevz is a winner at the distance and has some solid form behind some smart horses this prep. Only goes in as an exotic chance after he was eased out of the race last start.
Selections: 3-8-9-4
Suggested Bet: Celestial Fury Win
Race 3 – 1800m Vale Ray Markey (Bm78)
Tavi Time wins if he runs, but he’s been nominated for the Mudgee Cup.
If he doesn’t run, I’m going Toesonthenose and will be a betting play as the saver. He’s flying at the moment, coming off a smart win at Newcastle last start over the mile. He was strong enough through the line to suggest he’s ready to win at 1800 now. He should be hard to beat and will shorten considerably if the favourite scratches.
Manbehindthemoney usually needs the run first up and he has to carry quite a bit of weight here, however, he has some solid form throughout his career that can be considered stronger than this grade.
Colour Sergeant should be a nice injection to any boxed first 4 you are putting together. He has form behind the favourite and will come right into this one if he scratches.
Selections: 7-8-1-4
Suggested Bet: Tavi Time Win and Toesonthenose Win Saver
Race 4 – 1100M Tab Highway Hcp (C2)
Long time readers know I hate a Highway favourite, but if it’s at each way odds, I personally don’t think that counts. So, I’m going to tentatively go against my rule and back Gallant Star here. Flying in trackwork as of late and hasn’t raced in ages. However, has form behind some strong types before he went on his long break. Great each way shot and will swim, the wetter the better.
You’re On Mute is a serious X Factor here. She is flying, lightly raced, super untapped and has a load of potential. However, the odd thing is, she is jumping from picnic, non-tab race meets to a highway, crazy right? If she wins, what a story!
Rockin’ Edition is another horse who makes a big jump in grade, but is lightly raced and absolutely flying. Only query is he has never seen the wet, if he swims, he can win at huge odds. He maps perfectly to grab the lead and go all the way.
Tanglewood runs at his best when fresh, but usually gets gunned down when he goes past 1000m. That, coupled with the extra weight, he is vulnerable.
Selections: 2-11-17-1
Suggested Bet: Gallant Star Win
Race 5 – Doyle’s Breeding And Racing (Bm78)
Shadows Of Love for me. He’s absolutely flying lately, with 2 wins and a very narrow 2nd placing in his last 3 starts. Tim Clark sticks here and will have to put in a bit of work to get him to the front, but if he gets there he should dictate the race and be hard to beat.
Lekvarte is not a horse I envisioned winning first up against Portray, but that horse ended up being bust and Lekvarte stormed over the top of them late very impressively. Stays at the same distance, same grade, same set up really. Can go on with it.
Chase My Crown and Hide Your Heart both round out selections as solid roughie shots who come out of the same Lekvarte race. They’ll struggle to turn the tables, but the weight swing will sure help.
Selections: 2-1-10-3
Suggested Bet: Shadows Of Love Win
Race 6 – 2000M Tab Country Classic
Akasawa for me despite the mammoth weight and the 2000m first time queries. He’s just better than this crew, hence why he is handicapped so harshly. If he loses, it’s a pure weight issue in my mind.
Eaglemont has yet to win at the distance, but the key for him here is an easier field and the ability to actually make the distance, which is a query for some. Drops in grade after running solidly in the Little Dance on Cup Day. His only major query is the wide barrier and the potential to get trapped wide as he tries to push forward.
Rematch is another one who has an absolute horror barrier and Zac Lloyd will need to make a decision pretty quickly if he pushes forward with him considering he usually likes to, or drop back and take a sit. Lloyd rides at a 29% winning rate for this camp so that adds to the confidence he can play a part in the finish if he can navigate the traffic he likely faces going around the bend.
Sound And Vision is flying at the moment, just picked up the Taree Cup at this distance and loves a soft track, yet remains at $30 plus, definitely have him as a value injection in your exotics.
Selections: 1-4-8-7
Suggested Bet: Akasawa Win
Race 7 – 1500M James Squire Festival Stakes
Rustic Steel finds himself a wet track for the first time in a while and quite frankly, he is a different horse in the wet, not a total out and out swimmer, but he certainly prefers it damp. Ran on well behind Coal Crusher in The Hunter, closing off strong enough to suggest that the 1500M will suit him now. Clipperton should give him every chance.
Grebeni was an absolute winning machine in the winter earlier this year, especially at this track so he is a respected favourite and one I am very wary of. I would have usually thought this distance was too sharp for him, but he won the Goulburn Cup over 1400m, so he could certainly get it done here.
Finepoint should get the suck run behind the leading pack, just parking herself on their tails from that 1st barrier. She just needs to ensure she doesn’t get boxed on the rail to have a chance at running past them late. The Hot Danish Stakes form is certainly good enough to shape up here.
Military Expert has dropped off a cliff since this time last year admittedly, but a $17 chance in a race like this it should not be. The wet track will help, Rachel King is in ripping form and his best work comes when 2nd up.
Selections: 2-17-5-11
Suggested Bet: Rustic Steel Win
Race 8 – 1100M Greenlife Starlight Stake
Malkovich will do me based on his trial form alone. Has form around the likes of Overpass and Iowna Merc, his two stablemates who are both above this class IMO, especially Overpass who is the favourite for a Winterbottom Stakes this weekend. He should push right to the front and dictate the race throughout.
I am a big Conscript guy. Usually, I would be all over him, as he gets his pet distance, pet conditions and pet set up in a very winnable race, but Malkovich has convinced me to jump off. I would be very surprised to see this horse out of the finish though mind you.
Quick Tempo also has some form surrounding Iowna Merc, who I have mentioned is a talented horse, which Quick Tempo also narrowly beat last start and on that it immediately has my respect. On the quick back up and doesn’t mind the wet.
Dragonstone obviously a chance, but he is a perennial money muncher, so he is exotics at best and I will mention Fox Fighter is also a must in the exotics due to his consistency in races such as this.
Selections: 1-3-6-4
Suggested Bet: Malkovich Win
Race 9 – 2400M Christmas Cup
Little Mix for me, carries a light weight (7 kgs lighter than last start) and has some strong form in both QLD and Victoria. Comes back to Sydney here to try and go 3 on the trot for the Neasham camp. The fact she swims helps if there is any juice left in the track come race time.
Serpentine comes out of the Melbourne Cup, so you need to respect that form line, despite him being nowhere near the finish. This is way more his type of race and grade level, so I can 100% entertain him as a solid each way shout.
Stockman hasn’t found a wet track in ages so he will be licking his lips at the potential of getting his toe in. Yes, his last start was very plain, but the start before that he was excellent when first up in the Rosehill Gold Cup. Can figure here.
Sky Lab has been great his last two starts and the potentially wet track will help his chances as well, but considering I have him marked more of an each way chance, I can’t entertain a win chance, but he is a must for exotics as the favourite.
Selections: 9-2-3-1
Suggested Bet: Little Mix Win
Race 10 – 1100M Buy An Arrowfield Graduate (Bm78)
I will be on my longtime favourite Smashing Eagle. His blistering turn of foot always has him charging into the placings but he always presses the button a touch too late which causes him to come up on short. But if the market continually has him at ach way odds of course I am going to back him. Him to place is honestly one of my more confident bets of the day and he goes down as my best chance all day in any race. He will be in the finish.
Dollar Magic is a great each way chance here considering how consistent she has been this prep . She will jump on the bunny from that 3rd barrier, go right to the front and attempt to dictate the race all the way to the line. She has constantly been run down by one better this prep, but she has the perfect racing pattern to be in the finish here.
Legio ten had a fantastic winter prep with a few wins and some narrow placings behind some very smart horses down in Victoria. Very well placed here as he runs very strongly when fresh, especially on the soft deck, he will be one of the strongest late.
Billiondollarbaby also a very solid each way shout considering his consistently in the finish with this sort of set up.
Selections: 9-12-8-5
Suggested Bet: Smashing Eagle Each Way (BEST BET)
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Trafalgar Square
Race 2: Celestial Fury
Race 3: Tavi Time/Toesonthenose
Race 4: Gallant Star
Race 5: Shadows Of Love
Race 6: Akasawa
Race 7: Rustic Steel
Race 8: Malkovich
Race 9: Little Mix
Race 10: Smashing Eagle (BEST BET)
Quaddie
Race 7: 2,5,7,8,11,17
Race 8: 1,2,3,4,6
Race 9: 1,2,3,9
Race 10: 8,9,12
$50 gets you 13%
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.