A tidy profit last weekend with a few wins and some strong showings for some horses we have been following quite keenly in these articles. Let’s keep that momentum rolling into this weekend where we take a look at quite a sombre card with Verry Elleegant’s tribute taking centre stage. Fingers crossed we can snag a few wins on the day!
Track Report: Track should be completely bone dry come race day, however, there is rain predicted on the day, which could tip us into the Soft range. The rail is in the true position and the racing should be as fair as fair can be.
Race 1 – 1100M Midway (Bm72)
Straight to the point here with Mad Darcey. Was on her last start when she stormed home late to come 2nd behind Martial Music. She gets a bit of a weight swing on that same horse here and with an extra 100m to stretch out she is in a great position here to turn the tables.
Moonlight Grace is at a price that I can’t quite wrap my head around to be honest. Never missed a placing when first up, also at a distance she doesn’t mind either. She has placed in 7/10 races in her career and has gotten the job done in this grade before. She shouldn’t be priced over $20, there are definitely worse chances in the race.
Vindication is one of the more consistent horses you can find running in the Midway grade. Often runs super when first up, should get a cushy run in transit off the pace and is at a solid price.
Martial Music is obviously a good chance here, but I think he could be slightly vulnerable as favourite. Steps to a distance he is yet to place at in 5 attempts and jumps in weight as well. Watch the market for a potential drift I feel.
Selections: 14-7-8-6
Suggested Bet: Mad Darcey Each Way
Race 2 – 1200M James Squire (Bm88)
Our Kobison here. Its a short price, probably won’t be betting on it, but he just gets the job done in my mind. Here will be a lot of horses like that today. Tintookie will likely go to Flemington instead, if she does indeed run in Sydney, I could entertain a play.
Tashi is an interesting prospect but isn’t as good as Kobi in my opinion. Our Kobison has a bit of Shelby Sixty Six about him in my opinion, being a pure country horse turning into a city horse that could win a big race this year. Super smart, super fit, should be winning.
Pereille has yet to miss the placings at this distance from 10 attempts and has only ever missed the placings once in 14 starts. Worth an each way play.
Selections: 3-5-6-4
Suggested Bet: Our Kobison Win, Tintookie Each Way
Race 3 – 1000M Tab Highway Hcp (C3)
Have to go with Perennial here. Beware the unbeaten horse as they say and this horse has yet to put a foot wrong in its career being 3/3. Bullock sticks, the distance looks like it won’t be an issue, happy to him on.
Outishka is well placed here I feel after rising through the country and provincial grades to earn a start here. Only ever missed a placing once in 7 starts and is well drawn in a middle barrier, allowing the camp to either send her forward or let her take a sit behind the leading pack, as she has had success doing both.
Tom Marquand in a highway, now you don’t see that very often. Lyrical Beauty has the luck of the draw in booking the international superstar, which immediately raises the horse’s stock. 2 from 4 in his short career for Matthew Dale, who is flying as a trainer right now. Solid chance here at big odds.
Once Again My Girl has the form of Derry Grove, which is fantastic form for Highway grade considering what that horse has done sine leaving that grade. Should be somewhere amongst the finish.
Selections: 2-4-13-5
Suggested Bet: Perennial Win
Race 4 – 1200M Catanach’s Jewellers Skyline Stakes
Storm Boy. Next.
In all seriousness, this is the definition of a no-bet sort of race. If you’re desperate, go each way on a horse like Prost for the upset. But, it’ll be very hard to beat the favourite, he could very well gap them and justify the Winx Odds.
Selections: 1-3-4-7
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5 – 2000M Yarraman Park (Bm88)
Open race here for the benchmark stayers. Miracle Spin is the one I have to stick fat with. Ran some of the best sectionals of the day and the best sectionals of his race. Jumps steeply to a much more suitable distance for him. Should get shuffled to the back, but if he stays within striking distance he can certainly run them down.
Logan Street Lion looks to be a danger here. Has only had one go at this distance, but this prep, he has looked to be crying out for a trip like this. Forgive run last start, as he was stuck in traffic and with a clearer run this time in he can be right in the finish.
Redstone Well won really last start over a very smart type in Estadio Mestalla. This horse looks to be a great chance to be Annabel Neasham’s next Europe rags to riches story as he has simply gotten better with every run down under. Should be one of the strongest late.
Louisville had some very similar sectionals as Miracle Spin last start, which means he could 100% benefit with the jump in distance here. He has become one of those bridesmaid horses that can never really crack a win, as is evidenced by those 6 2nd placings on his record. Finds a winnable field here though.
Selections: 8-3-1-10
Suggested Bet: Miracle Spin Each Way
Race 6 – 1200M Tab Sweet Embrace Stakes
Manaal. Next.
No, no, in all seriousness, this race is far from as cut and dry as the Storm Boy race earlier. However, I am of the strong opinion that the field favourite will be getting the job done. Her form is surrounded by Lady Of Camelot, who should be the Blue Diamond winner if she didn’t get pipped right at the end. Manaal won’t be winning the Slipper I think, but she’ll be there and she’ll confirm her place with the win here.
Extreme Diva, Chateau Miraval and Castanya round out selections and present as the horses you should be whacking in your exotics.
Selections: 1-6-4-2
Suggested Bet: Manaal Win
Race 7 – 1600m Verry elleegant Stakes
It is Fangirl versus the world at those odds, but realistically, can I see anything beating her? No, I simply can’t. However, she isn’t really a betting proposition at that price. She will definitely be the top selection but, as she warrants it. Her first up win was the definition of dominant and she looked just like the Waller girls of old in Winx and Verry Elleegant when she just walked past the competition without being asked of anything. Super impressive, super talented, super horse, she wins.
Buckaroo is a horse I have a bit of time for honestly. Has strong Europe form and has yet to show that in Australia, but has been getting better with every piece of work and in my opinion here is probably the only horse I can see winning and not being surprised at the outcome. Confident he will be in the finish.
Just Fine is a horse that honestly boggles my mind. Stormed through the grades in a matter of starts in the Spring and started $1.75 when winning the G1 Metropolitan. He then dropped back 400m and ran like a donkey. Gai seems to want him to be a cups horse this year and if that’s the case, he needs to be firing. This is a good kick off point here for him at a comfortable distance. Place chance.
Cascadian is always in the mix for these sorts of races. Was stuck in traffic the entirety of the Apollo Stakes, so has excuses. Very capable of bouncing back here.
Selections: 9-4-5-2
Suggested Bet: 9/4 Exacta, Buckaroo Place (BEST BET)
Race 8 – 1400M Surround Stakes
Zardozi obviously gets better over longer. She is an Oaks horse after all. However, at her price, I can’t let her go around without me. She is a horse that I think will be super hard to beat in a race like the Vinery Stud Stakes and then in the Spring something like a Metropolitan, so clearly I have a high opinion of her. This is just a kick off point, but she can definitely find her way into the money and when that is paying more than the favourite to win, I think from a betting POV, I can’t ignore it.
Learning To Fly is a super exciting prospect and will be very hard to get past here. She was by far and away the most talented Filly this time last year before her injury and she 100% has returned as the same horse. She just wasn’t as fit as she could be off the long break when being beaten by a lip first up. She’s better than most of this field and better than Kimochi in my mind, so with the added distance and fitness, she is certainly a deserved favourite.
Kimochi obviously, as mentioned, beat Learning To Fly last start and should be respected as such. She probably has the best late kick out of the whole field, so watch her fly late, however, I think she might have to get used to running 2nd again.
Stefi Magnetica was strong enough through the line in the Light Fingers Stakes to warrant a spot in the selections here. Exotics must.
Selections: 2-4-3-12
Suggested Bet: Zardozi Each Way and Learning To Fly Win
Race 9 – 1400M Proven Thoroughbreds Guy Walter Stakes
I gotta go Hinged. She has dropped off a cliff so much that she’s ended up in this race instead of the Verry Elleegant, which you would have expected her to line up in. If she isn’t running well here, it is time to retire.
Duais is the exact same here. Should be in the VE and because of how inconsistent she has become she lines up here. This isn’t a distance that suits her, so she might not be sharp enough to get the job done here, but class alone could take her to victory.
Ausbred Flirt is a strange one. Usually you would say she is waaaaaay outclassed here. But, she did finish 1.5 lengths off the finish and come 5th in an Invitation last year, which is solid enough form to be winning a race as thin as this.
Miss Faberge winning would genuinely be a shock, but a placing would be far from it. Made enough ground in the Triscay behind Semana to warrant the respect of labelling her a place chance.
Selections: 2-1-6-7
Suggested Bet: Hinged Win
Race 10 – 1300M Liverpool City Cup
We all know I love an import and I will be all over New Energy here. Has form behind Buckaroo and Light Infantry, two group 1 horses, so I love that for him here. Usually strong first up, but might need a run or two to really get going down under, but at the price right now, I am happy to risk it.
Winchat has been rising through the ranks excellently of late and 100% deserves a crack at the Group level. Dropped 6kg off of a first up win to win a 2nd on the trot impressively last start and then drops another kilo and a half here, so he won’t know himself with that on his back. Has the speed to overcome the draw and will be super competitive.
Democracy Manifest is a horse that can certainly be a G1 winner by the time 2024 has ended and this is our first look at him this year. He has become a very consistent horse that just manages to be in the thick of things come the late stages in races. Always runs well fresh and loves the distance, huge chance.
Coal Crusher is another horse that has become super consistent and is used to running in this quality of race by now. Form is littered with top tier horses in King Of Sparta, Private Eye and Bella Nipotina. Honestly, surprised he isn’t favourite. Very respectable choice if you decide to jump on.
Selections: 6-13-5-2
Suggested Bet: New Energy Each Way
Top Selections For The Card
Race 1: Mad Darcey
Race 2: Our Kobison
Race 3: Perennial
Race 4: Storm Boy
Race 5: Miracle Spin
Race 6: Manaal
Race 7: Fangirl
Race 8: Zardozi
Race 9: Hinged
Race 10: Winchat
Quaddie
Race 7: 9
Race 8: 2,3,4
Race 9: 1,2,6
Race 10: 2,3,4,5,6,13
$50 gets you 92%
GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.
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