Football is back and I tell you what, normality resumes! In a change up from previous years the AFL has to chosen to introduce an ‘opening round’ fixture where all games are played in the Northern States. The three biggest clubs in the land will be apart of a four game round in Richmond, Collingwood, and Carlton. We will see a replay of the Preliminary final fixtures from 2023 with Collingwood facing the Giants and Brisbane hosting the Blues, whilst Damien Hardwick will face the club he took too three Premierships in the Tigers for the first time since leaving last year in controversial fashion. The opening game of the round sees Sydney play Melbourne. Both teams are in their Premiership window and it should be a cracking season opener. We will preview every game and tell you where each game will be won and lost.
SYDNEY SWANS VS MELBOURNE DEMONS – THURSDAY 7:30 – SCG
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Both of these teams are among the top six in the outright Premiership betting odds set by bookmakers around the country and it should be a cracking contest between two teams that didn’t live up to their own expectations in 2023. Melbourne went out in straight sets after a brutal loss to Carlton, as did the Swans in the Elimination Final. The Swans recruited hard in the off season when recruiting Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, and James Jordon whilst the Demons will be expecting internal improvement to boost them back up the ladder.
WHERE SYDNEY CAN WIN:
The Swans can gain aerial dominance in their own defensive fifty which can both limit the Demons scoring ability whilst also providing run out of the defensive half. Harrison Petty is likely to miss for the Demons which means that Jacob Van Rooyen will have to go it alone against a Sydney defence that includes Tom McCartin and the intercepting combination of Nick Blakey and Dane Rampe. The most instrumental match up of the game might be that of Robbie Fox on Bayley Fritsch. If Fox can nullify his influence it will mean that the Sydney defence can settle as a back six and limit the Demons scoring opportunities providing there is some pressure on the kicker up the ground.
The other focus area for the Swans will be to break even forward of centre by not allowing the likes of Steven May, Jake Lever, and Adam Tomlinson to intercept mark as that is their main strength. Sydney do have the ability to hold their own in the air considering the height of their forward line in Joel Amartey, Hayden McLean, and Logan McDonald. Not only will they keep the Demons defenders occupied, but they can also hit the scoreboard with all three of them kicking over twenty goals in 2023. If they can minimise the Demons aerial dominance in defence it will go a long way to them winning the game.
WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN:
The Demons have a full strength midfield and face a Swans midfield six that is missing Captain Callum Mills, Luke Parker, and Taylor Adams. Melbourne were the third best clearance team in the competition last season and they are now facing the second worst clearance team in the competition without two of their best midfielders. The SCG is a ground where there is an emphasis on centre bounce clearances and it is hard to see the likes of Errol Gulden and Chad Warner being able to beat the big and hardened bodies of Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, and Jack Viney. If the Demons dominate clearances and contested possession the flood gates will eventually open. In the two contrasting contests last season the three Demon midfielders combined for seventy-seven and eighty-three disposals respectively and were arguably the difference in the game.
It might also be worth adding that the Demons small and medium sized forwards in Bayley Fritsch, Kade Chandler, and Jake Melksham were the key factors forwards of the centre for the Demons and that may be the case again on Thursday night.
PREDICTION: I think the Demons can overpower Sydney in the contest and have enough scoring opportunities to kick a winning score on what is likely to be a fast SCG deck. Melbourne by twenty-two points. They historically start the season well and this year will be no different.
BRISBANE LIONS VS CARLTON BLUES – FRIDAY 7:40PM – GABBA
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This promises to be an enthralling contest between two clubs who are expected to be there deep into September this season. It is the Preliminary Final rematch from last season and we can expect another high quality game to take place between these two teams here. The two clubs were relatively quiet on the recruiting front this off-season. Internal improvement will be expected at the Blues whilst the Lions are a hard, tough, and disciplined twenty-two that was a kick away from being Premiers last season and should be expecting to go one better in season 2024.
WHERE BRISBANE CAN WIN:
Without Jacob Weitering this Carlton defence looks very shaky. They are playing the best offensive team of last season in the Lions and the key forward duo of Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood have two very good match ups with Lewis Young and Brodie Kemp their likely opponents. Daniher and Hipwood combined for one hundred goals last season and they have the size and speed over their opponents here. Carlton also lack a good lock down small defender which was shown last year when Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey hit the scoreboard hard against them and not much has changed in that regard over the off-season. Mitch McGovern will most likely be pre-occupied helping out the likes of Kemp and Young and that means Adam Saad and Nic Newman will get the jobs on Cameron and Bailey and if last year is anything to go by they will most likely get beaten and it will go a long way to Brisbane winning the game.
WHERE CARLTON CAN WIN:
The Blues trump card is always their forward line and they boast one of the most potent ones in the competition. Last year’s Coleman Medallist Charlie Curnow lit up the Gabba in the first quarter of last years Preliminary Final which showed he can dominate the Lions defence and Harry McKay has got enough looks at goal against them in the past and only needs to kick straighter to have an influence on the game. The midfield battle is likely to lean slightly towards the Lions which is going to make every forward fifty entry more important for the Blues and it is the one weapon they have that can beat any team at any time. I think the only way they win this game is to dominate their own forward fifty.
PREDICTION: I think without Weitering and Walsh it is going to be very difficult for the Blues. Brisbane by five goals in what should be a relatively comfortable win.
GOLD COAST SUNS VS RICHMOND TIGERS – 4:20PM SATURDAY – METRICON
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Both teams kick off their new era under new coaches Damien Hardwick and Adam Yze respectively and the Suns are the team expected to rise up the ladder this season under the tutelage of the man who took the Tigers to three Premierships. Both teams finished in the bottom six last season after horrible ends to the season and the first six rounds is going to be of ultra-importance to both teams so expect them both to be pretty much ready to go in this opening round contest. Will there be bad blood between the two teams due to Damien Hardwick? Time will tell but it will be a talking point all week.
WHERE THE SUNS CAN WIN:
There is two areas the Suns can capitalise on and one of them is the midfield battle. Gold Coast boast one of the better contested and clearance midfields in the competition led by Touk Miller, Noah Anderson, and Matt Rowell and the Tigers have been lacking in this area for the last few seasons and are relying on internal improvement from the likes of Thomson Dow and Liam Baker to fix the issue. In the corresponding fixture last season Anderson and Rowell combined for fifty-eight disposals and seventeen clearances and a repeat of that wouldn’t really surprise as I don’t think the Tigers have fixed their midfield issues and it will only be compounded by Touk Miller being an inclusion who didn’t play much football in 2023.
The other area that the Suns can gain ascendancy in is the Tigers forward fifty. Without Tom Lynch in this forward line (and potentially Dustin Martin) they lack potency and will rely on essentially two players in Noah Balta and Shai Bolton to get the job done and kick goals. The likes of Charlie Ballard and Sam Collins should be able to mitigate the aerial presence of Balta and Shai Bolton which makes it hard to see the Tigers being able to kick a winning score. The fitness of Dustin Martin is a huge concern for the Tigers.
WHERE THE TIGERS CAN WIN:
The Tigers hopes rely on their young key defenders having good games in Josh Gibcus and Tylar Young. If they can hold Ben King and Jack Lukosius quiet throughout the contest, I don’t think the Suns have many other scoring options and that will allow the likes of Dylan Grimes, Nathan Broad, and Nick Vlastuin to intercept at will which is something they are elite at. If they can intercept the likes of Daniel Rioli, Jayden Short, and Sam Banks will be able to use their speed and kicking ability to provide scoring chains out of their own defensive fifty. The Tigers ranked first in rebound 50s per game last season and going by the pre-season games it is something that they will continue to at least try and do in 2024. The Suns lack defensive pressure in their own forward fifty and the Tigers simply need to take advantage of it which will therefore give their weakened forward line a chance at some quick ball movement.
The Tigers also need to break even in the middle of the ground and Tim Taranto might be the most important player for them in that regard. He ranked tenth in total clearances last season and fourteenth in contested possessions and is arguably one of the best inside midfielders in the league. The likes of Jacob Hopper and Dion Prestia also need to stand up or else it might be a long afternoon for the Tiger faithful.
PREDICTION: This game could go either way but I think at home you have to favour the Suns. Their midfield should gain ascendancy and lead them to a big opening round win. Gold Coast by eight points.
GWS GIANTS VS COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES – SATURDAY 7:30PM – GIANTS STADIUM
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Both teams come into this season with the Grand Final as a pass mark which means that this should be a cracking game of football. The Preliminary Final between these two teams last year was a brilliant game of football and I think we will see another game of high level football here. Both teams are in the right age bracket to be contending again and it is hard to see them both not finishing in the top four and being right there at the pointy end of the season again.
WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN:
I think the Giants one wood is their forward line and they face a weakened Collingwood back six with Nathan Murphy and Jeremy Howe unavailable. The Giants key forwards in Jesse Hogan, Jake Riccardi, and Aaron Cadman should be able to match it in the air with the likes of Darcy Moore and Billy Frampton and the smalls might be the ones who do the damage. Toby Greene kicked sixty-six goals in 2023 and is arguably a top three forward in the competition and the likes of Brent Daniels and Toby Bedford can also hit the scoreboard. If the Pies intercept marking defenders are kept occupied it will allow the small and medium sized forwards to get a good look at some inside fifty entries which should allow for them to kick a winning score.
The other area the Giants need to hone in on is their defensive half. For all of the Magpies small forward options they are still bereft of a good key forward and the Giants key defenders in Sam Taylor, Jack Buckley, and Connor Idun might be able to intercept at will if the ball has some pressure on it coming inside fifty. It was something they struggled to do in last years Preliminary Final and they will put a big emphasis on it on Saturday Night.
WHERE THE MAGPIES WILL WIN:
The inside midfield battle was owned by the Magpies in the Preliminary Final and it could be the case again here if the Giants haven’t fixed their clearance and contested ball work over the off-season. They won the clearance battle 44-26 in that Preliminary Final and it was Jordan De Goey who led the charge in there with thirty-four disposals and thirteen clearances. If the same thing occurs here and the Magpies dominate the midfield battle, history suggests that they will be able to score enough to beat the Giants. The onus will be put on the likes of Tom Green and Josh Kelly to lift in the middle and carry them to redemption from that Preliminary Final.
PREDICTION: I think the Giants will be hungry at the contest and will break even around the ball which will lead to them having a slight edge at both ends of the ground. Giants by sixteen points.