Although it can be hard to see what the game plan is currently, stats tell us that they are trying to play a possession based game which includes needing precision ball use when going inside fifty. Dropping Caleb Daniel, Bailey Dale, and Jack Macrae who are essentially their best ball users therefore makes no sense whatsoever. Outside of Marcus Bontempelli the Bulldogs midfielders aren’t good ball users. Adam Treloar is the man that has kicked the ball inside fifty on the most occasions for the Dogs this season and it is widely acknowledged that he is a poor kick. Tom Liberatore is slightly better but the same logic applies. When you compare this to the current benchmark in the Giants who have players like Josh Kelly, Lachie Whitfield, and Tom Green delivering it inside fifty it looks night and day and their inside fifties show this.

The other issue with a possession based game plan (or over possessing the ball when the pressure arises) is that the Bulldogs have an incredibly tall forward line which needs quick entries and one on one contests. Aaron Naughton is 196cm, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan is 197cm, and Sam Darcy and Rory Lobb are both over 205cm. To take advantage of their height and marking dominance you would think that you would want to play a run and gun, get it in their quick style of football which would unquestionably have every back six in the league worried. Instead, the Bulldogs play a methodical and predictable style of football that allows teams to get numbers back and blunts any offensive weapons that they have.

Now, we get to the list build. Although I don’t think Luke Beveridge should have a job, I don’t think the list manager in Sam Power should escape scrutiny. The Bulldogs simply have no key defenders and I am not sure they have many good intercept defenders either. Liam Jones has become a good key defender but he is now thirty-three along with Alex Keath who is thirty-two which begs the question of who their key defenders are going to be in a year or two time. James O’Donnell has shown signs since moving to defence and the only other key defender on the list is their first round selection in 2022 in Jedd Busslinger who is yet to play a game. The lack of outside midfielders is also a major issue. Bontempelli, Liberatore, Treloar, and Macrae are all brilliant footballers but they do their best work on the inside. The outside brigade in Caleb Daniel and Bailey Dale aren’t being selected which leaves the likes of Bailey Williams and Jason Johannisen to fill the void who aren’t currently getting the job done.

Now we can discuss the coach in Luke Beveridge. The sheer arrogance of this man in his post-match press conference to say that they had “one eye on next week” had to be seen and heard to be believed. This was a Bulldogs team that was 2-2 after four games and had beaten Gold Coast (middle of the table side) and West Coast who are the worst side in the competition. What made Beveridge think that Essendon, a team who was also 2-2, could be underestimated?

He then made comments surrounding Tom Liberatore collapsing after an obvious head knock/concussion that were just bizarre. Beveridge claimed that Liberatore had “lost his footing”. Generally, Luke, you stand back up after losing your footing. Liberatore face planted and didn’t get back up in what were truly scary scenes. I think Beveridge is a man that knows he is coaching for his career, and it is all starting to unravel mentally for him much like it did surrounding the Tom Morris saga.

The Bulldogs play the Saints tonight and their season is on the line. If they cannot find a way to win this game against an undermanned Saints outfit in the face of the scrutiny they have been under all week, they simply aren’t a team ready to play finals football. Beveridge is the type of man who will live and die by the sword of his approach to the game of football, and he may in fact figuratively die on Thursday Night football with the eyes of the football world watching on.

The post Is There Even A Whimper Coming Out Of Whitten Oval? first appeared on The Mock Sports.

SYDNEY SWANS VS MELBOURNE DEMONS – THURSDAY 7:30 – SCG

Both of these teams are among the top six in the outright Premiership betting odds set by bookmakers around the country and it should be a cracking contest between two teams that didn’t live up to their own expectations in 2023. Melbourne went out in straight sets after a brutal loss to Carlton, as did the Swans in the Elimination Final. The Swans recruited hard in the off season when recruiting Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, and James Jordon whilst the Demons will be expecting internal improvement to boost them back up the ladder.

WHERE SYDNEY CAN WIN:

The Swans can gain aerial dominance in their own defensive fifty which can both limit the Demons scoring ability whilst also providing run out of the defensive half. Harrison Petty is likely to miss for the Demons which means that Jacob Van Rooyen will have to go it alone against a Sydney defence that includes Tom McCartin and the intercepting combination of Nick Blakey and Dane Rampe. The most instrumental match up of the game might be that of Robbie Fox on Bayley Fritsch. If Fox can nullify his influence it will mean that the Sydney defence can settle as a back six and limit the Demons scoring opportunities providing there is some pressure on the kicker up the ground.

The other focus area for the Swans will be to break even forward of centre by not allowing the likes of Steven May, Jake Lever, and Adam Tomlinson to intercept mark as that is their main strength. Sydney do have the ability to hold their own in the air considering the height of their forward line in Joel Amartey, Hayden McLean, and Logan McDonald. Not only will they keep the Demons defenders occupied, but they can also hit the scoreboard with all three of them kicking over twenty goals in 2023. If they can minimise the Demons aerial dominance in defence it will go a long way to them winning the game.

WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN:

The Demons have a full strength midfield and face a Swans midfield six that is missing Captain Callum Mills, Luke Parker, and Taylor Adams. Melbourne were the third best clearance team in the competition last season and they are now facing the second worst clearance team in the competition without two of their best midfielders. The SCG is a ground where there is an emphasis on centre bounce clearances and it is hard to see the likes of Errol Gulden and Chad Warner being able to beat the big and hardened bodies of Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, and Jack Viney. If the Demons dominate clearances and contested possession the flood gates will eventually open. In the two contrasting contests last season the three Demon midfielders combined for seventy-seven and eighty-three disposals respectively and were arguably the difference in the game.

It might also be worth adding that the Demons small and medium sized forwards in Bayley Fritsch, Kade Chandler, and Jake Melksham were the key factors forwards of the centre for the Demons and that may be the case again on Thursday night.

PREDICTION: I think the Demons can overpower Sydney in the contest and have enough scoring opportunities to kick a winning score on what is likely to be a fast SCG deck. Melbourne by twenty-two points. They historically start the season well and this year will be no different.

BRISBANE LIONS VS CARLTON BLUES – FRIDAY 7:40PM – GABBA

This promises to be an enthralling contest between two clubs who are expected to be there deep into September this season. It is the Preliminary Final rematch from last season and we can expect another high quality game to take place between these two teams here. The two clubs were relatively quiet on the recruiting front this off-season. Internal improvement will be expected at the Blues whilst the Lions are a hard, tough, and disciplined twenty-two that was a kick away from being Premiers last season and should be expecting to go one better in season 2024.

WHERE BRISBANE CAN WIN:

Without Jacob Weitering this Carlton defence looks very shaky. They are playing the best offensive team of last season in the Lions and the key forward duo of Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood have two very good match ups with Lewis Young and Brodie Kemp their likely opponents. Daniher and Hipwood combined for one hundred goals last season and they have the size and speed over their opponents here. Carlton also lack a good lock down small defender which was shown last year when Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey hit the scoreboard hard against them and not much has changed in that regard over the off-season. Mitch McGovern will most likely be pre-occupied helping out the likes of Kemp and Young and that means Adam Saad and Nic Newman will get the jobs on Cameron and Bailey and if last year is anything to go by they will most likely get beaten and it will go a long way to Brisbane winning the game.

WHERE CARLTON CAN WIN:

The Blues trump card is always their forward line and they boast one of the most potent ones in the competition. Last year’s Coleman Medallist Charlie Curnow lit up the Gabba in the first quarter of last years Preliminary Final which showed he can dominate the Lions defence and Harry McKay has got enough looks at goal against them in the past and only needs to kick straighter to have an influence on the game. The midfield battle is likely to lean slightly towards the Lions which is going to make every forward fifty entry more important for the Blues and it is the one weapon they have that can beat any team at any time. I think the only way they win this game is to dominate their own forward fifty.

PREDICTION: I think without Weitering and Walsh it is going to be very difficult for the Blues. Brisbane by five goals in what should be a relatively comfortable win.

GOLD COAST SUNS VS RICHMOND TIGERS – 4:20PM SATURDAY – METRICON

Both teams kick off their new era under new coaches Damien Hardwick and Adam Yze respectively and the Suns are the team expected to rise up the ladder this season under the tutelage of the man who took the Tigers to three Premierships. Both teams finished in the bottom six last season after horrible ends to the season and the first six rounds is going to be of ultra-importance to both teams so expect them both to be pretty much ready to go in this opening round contest. Will there be bad blood between the two teams due to Damien Hardwick? Time will tell but it will be a talking point all week.

WHERE THE SUNS CAN WIN:

There is two areas the Suns can capitalise on and one of them is the midfield battle. Gold Coast boast one of the better contested and clearance midfields in the competition led by Touk Miller, Noah Anderson, and Matt Rowell and the Tigers have been lacking in this area for the last few seasons and are relying on internal improvement from the likes of Thomson Dow and Liam Baker to fix the issue. In the corresponding fixture last season Anderson and Rowell combined for fifty-eight disposals and seventeen clearances and a repeat of that wouldn’t really surprise as I don’t think the Tigers have fixed their midfield issues and it will only be compounded by Touk Miller being an inclusion who didn’t play much football in 2023.

The other area that the Suns can gain ascendancy in is the Tigers forward fifty. Without Tom Lynch in this forward line (and potentially Dustin Martin) they lack potency and will rely on essentially two players in Noah Balta and Shai Bolton to get the job done and kick goals. The likes of Charlie Ballard and Sam Collins should be able to mitigate the aerial presence of Balta and Shai Bolton which makes it hard to see the Tigers being able to kick a winning score. The fitness of Dustin Martin is a huge concern for the Tigers.

WHERE THE TIGERS CAN WIN:

The Tigers hopes rely on their young key defenders having good games in Josh Gibcus and Tylar Young. If they can hold Ben King and Jack Lukosius quiet throughout the contest, I don’t think the Suns have many other scoring options and that will allow the likes of Dylan Grimes, Nathan Broad, and Nick Vlastuin to intercept at will which is something they are elite at. If they can intercept the likes of Daniel Rioli, Jayden Short, and Sam Banks will be able to use their speed and kicking ability to provide scoring chains out of their own defensive fifty. The Tigers ranked first in rebound 50s per game last season and going by the pre-season games it is something that they will continue to at least try and do in 2024. The Suns lack defensive pressure in their own forward fifty and the Tigers simply need to take advantage of it which will therefore give their weakened forward line a chance at some quick ball movement.

The Tigers also need to break even in the middle of the ground and Tim Taranto might be the most important player for them in that regard. He ranked tenth in total clearances last season and fourteenth in contested possessions and is arguably one of the best inside midfielders in the league. The likes of Jacob Hopper and Dion Prestia also need to stand up or else it might be a long afternoon for the Tiger faithful.

PREDICTION: This game could go either way but I think at home you have to favour the Suns. Their midfield should gain ascendancy and lead them to a big opening round win. Gold Coast by eight points.

GWS GIANTS VS COLLINGWOOD MAGPIES – SATURDAY 7:30PM – GIANTS STADIUM

Both teams come into this season with the Grand Final as a pass mark which means that this should be a cracking game of football. The Preliminary Final between these two teams last year was a brilliant game of football and I think we will see another game of high level football here. Both teams are in the right age bracket to be contending again and it is hard to see them both not finishing in the top four and being right there at the pointy end of the season again.

WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN:

I think the Giants one wood is their forward line and they face a weakened Collingwood back six with Nathan Murphy and Jeremy Howe unavailable. The Giants key forwards in Jesse Hogan, Jake Riccardi, and Aaron Cadman should be able to match it in the air with the likes of Darcy Moore and Billy Frampton and the smalls might be the ones who do the damage. Toby Greene kicked sixty-six goals in 2023 and is arguably a top three forward in the competition and the likes of Brent Daniels and Toby Bedford can also hit the scoreboard. If the Pies intercept marking defenders are kept occupied it will allow the small and medium sized forwards to get a good look at some inside fifty entries which should allow for them to kick a winning score.

The other area the Giants need to hone in on is their defensive half. For all of the Magpies small forward options they are still bereft of a good key forward and the Giants key defenders in Sam Taylor, Jack Buckley, and Connor Idun might be able to intercept at will if the ball has some pressure on it coming inside fifty. It was something they struggled to do in last years Preliminary Final and they will put a big emphasis on it on Saturday Night.

WHERE THE MAGPIES WILL WIN:

The inside midfield battle was owned by the Magpies in the Preliminary Final and it could be the case again here if the Giants haven’t fixed their clearance and contested ball work over the off-season. They won the clearance battle 44-26 in that Preliminary Final and it was Jordan De Goey who led the charge in there with thirty-four disposals and thirteen clearances. If the same thing occurs here and the Magpies dominate the midfield battle, history suggests that they will be able to score enough to beat the Giants. The onus will be put on the likes of Tom Green and Josh Kelly to lift in the middle and carry them to redemption from that Preliminary Final.

PREDICTION: I think the Giants will be hungry at the contest and will break even around the ball which will lead to them having a slight edge at both ends of the ground. Giants by sixteen points.

The post AFL OPENING ROUND PREVIEW: CAN YOU HEAR A BIG, BIG SOUND? first appeared on The Mock Sports.

THE KEY MATCH UPS:

JOE DANIHER VS DARCY MOORE

The Magpies captain has been terrific this season and has led from the front throughout but Joe Daniher has also had a very good season and a good finals campaign kicking seven goals and gathering thirty disposals in the two games the Lions have played. Moore is integral to both the Pies defensively setting up and restricting score but also on the counter and in transition where he ranks third for total intercepts across the competition and sixteenth in rebound 50s. Both men have more than one job. For Daniher, it is being able to kick goals and mark the ball like he usually does, but when playing against Darcy Moore you must get your positioning right and you cannot let him out mark you in the air. If he does, the Pies will be able to chain up possession and get some easy ball movement into their forward fifty. For Moore, the job is to keep Daniher relatively quiet on the scoreboard but to also not allow him to gain possessions. Daniher has been excellent at gathering the ball up the ground and using his foot skills going forward this season and if Moore allows that to happen the Magpie defence could be in for a long afternoon.

JOSH DUNKLEY VS JORDAN DE GOEY

I think the Lions will want Lachie Neale to have more freedom than Dunkley so therefore he will get the job on Jordan De Goey who was sensational in the Preliminary Final against the Giants. Dunkley’s job is arguably the harder one. Not only is he expected to win clearance and find contested footy himself but he is also expected to restrict a player who just had thirty-four disposals and thirteen clearances against the in-form team of the competition. The equation for De Goey is simple. Repeat last week. It is easier said than done but the Magpies strengths don’t belong around clearance and contested ball whereas the Lions does. If De Goey can explode away from clearance and getting it going the Magpies way throughout the game it might be enough to get them over the line, but if Dunkley can put the clamps on De Goey like he did to Carlton Captain Patrick Cripps in the Preliminary Final, the question must be asked of how the Pies are going to win it at the source.

THE WINGERS

The MCG is a ground that shows the importance of the wing position and these two teams have terrific ones. Josh Daicos and Steele Sidebottom have had brilliant seasons for the Magpies with the former being selected in the All-Australian team, averaging twenty-five disposals per game and being one of the best kicks in the competition. For the Lions, it is Hugh McCluggage who is arguably one of their most important players. His record away from the Gabba in recent years has been sub-par and it has probably went a long way to that dismal record outside of Brisbane. McCluggage has recorded eight 25+ disposal games this season and the Lions have won seven of them. He ranks second in goal assists across the competition this season which goes to show his importance. If he and his mate Dayne Zorko win the battle on the wing, the Lions will have some very easy ball going inside fifty, as will the Magpies if Daicos and Sidebottom are allowed time and space with the ball.

THE LESSER LIKES?

In every grand final there is a lesser like (either underrated or relatively unknown) player who lifts to the occasion more than some of the superstars. Last year it was Brad Close, in 2021 it was Christian Salem, and in 2020 it was Jayden Short. We have picked one out from each team that we think will rise to the occasion.

CONOR MCKENNA

The Irishman has been tremendous in the back half of the season and he fits the mould for half backs who generally lift on Grand Final day (think Houli, Fox, Short). In his last two games against the Magpies he has played well and this does have the potential to backfire. He does tend to turn the ball over but if he can minimise those mistakes on the big stage and use his run out of defence to worry the Magpies with speed and his long kicking, he might be the lesser like who drags the Lions over the line. He is $81 for the Norm Smith and I think that is over the odds considering he had twenty-six disposals against the Magpies in round 23.

JEREMY HOWE

Since coming back from his injury he has been terrific. He was influential against Brisbane when playing as a third tall forward in round 23 but since moving back to the back six he has been elite. I thought he was the second best player for the Magpies in the Preliminary Final when he repelled multiple Giants forward thrusts in the second half. He took a game high ten marks and it was him and Isaac Quaynor who are the reason that the Magpies are playing this week. He is likely to get the job on Cameron Rayner and should he out mark him and be the prime interceptor in the game, it will go a long way to the Magpies winning.

WHERE COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:

Much like the Tigers in their golden era the Magpies simply must bring the heat and pressure around the contest and ball carrier as it is clearly their strength compared to the rest of the competition. If there is a weakness with the Lions, it is the fact that in the recent past they haven’t handled the big moments. Carlton brought ridiculously good pressure in the first quarter in the Preliminary Final and it was Brisbane’s undoing with them trailing by five goals early in the game. Collingwood bring more pressure than the Blues do when they are at their best and if they can pressure the likes of McKenna, Starcevich, and Andrews into making silly mistakes, it could take the winds right out of the Lions sails.

WHERE BRISBANE CAN WIN:

The contested ball and clearance battle is where the Lions can get on top of the Pies. Collingwood done a brilliant job in round 23 to even up this area of the game but earlier in the season in round four it was the difference with Brisbane winning the clearance count by nine with ruckman Oscar McInerney gathering eleven clearances to go along with seven each from both Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley. Jordan De Goey is arguably the Magpies best clearance midfielder and if the Lions can quell his influence, I think it will be a long afternoon for the Magpies.

OVERVIEW:

It looks like a very even contest on paper. I think Brisbane are in better form and have been for a while now, but the MCG factor cannot be understated and that is clearly advantage Collingwood. It will be a game where a few key match ups will decide it and it will be a matter of who rises to the occasion more when the big moments arrive and the game is up for grabs. Jordan De Goey, Scott Pendlebury, and Brody Mihocek might hold the key for the Pies and for the Lions the likes of Dunkley, Daniher, and McInerney may decide whether the Premiership Cup is going to Queensland.

TIP: Collingwood by eight points

NORM SMITH: Scott Pendlebury/Hugh McCluggage

FIRST GOAL: Cameron Rayner/Jamie Elliot

The post AFL 2023 GRAND FINAL PREVIEW: MACRAE AND HIS MEN TO FLY INTO MAGPIE IMMORTALITY first appeared on The Mock Sports.

COLLINGWOOD VS MELBOURNE – THURSDAY 7.20PM – MCG

The Magpies and the Demons face off in the first Qualifying final. Collingwood finished a game clear on top of the ladder at the end of the home and away season but did lose three of their last five games on the run home. Melbourne finished third and were in the top four essentially all season. They won seven of their final eight games and it does seem like they are peaking at the right time of the year mixing their form early in the season. For the Magpies, it is looking likely that Oleg Markov, Billy Frampton, and Jack Ginnivan will make way for Darcy Moore, Nathan Murphy, and Beau McCreery in what are huge additions to this Collingwood outfit. Jake Melksham will miss for the Demons with one of Tom McDonald or Joel Smith looking likely to come in.

WHERE COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:

The Magpies are the best defensive team in the competition and they get back their two key defenders in Darcy Moore and Nathan Murphy for this final whilst the Demons miss both Harrison Petty and Jake Melksham who have been arguably their best forwards in the back half of the season. The match ups will be all important in the back six. Collingwood have the opportunity to play Nathan Murphy on Jacob Van Rooyen and if he can keep him quiet throughout the game, the likes of Darcy Moore could be able to intercept at will and thwart most of the Demons forward forays. If the likes of Kysaiah Pickett and Bayley Fritsch don’t combine for at least six or seven goals, I don’t think the Demons will kick a winning score.

The other area Collingwood need to improve in is around the clearance. The Demons have three of the best clearance and contested ball midfielders in the competition in Jack Viney, Clayton Oliver, and Christian Petracca. The three of them average around thirty disposals a game over the last three years against the Pies and on Queens Birthday it was Viney’s 32 disposals and nine clearances that dragged the Demons over the line. Without Nick Daicos the likes of Tom Mitchell, Jordan De Goey, Taylor Adams, and Scott Pendlebury are going to have to lift in order for the Pies to get enough ball into their own inside fifty.

WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN:

Much like the Magpies defence, the Demons back six is going to be the difference between them winning and losing this game. The Demons have two of the best defenders in the competition in Steven May and Jake Lever and in the last few games between these teams they have completely shut out the likes of Brody Mihocek, Mason Cox, and whichever other key forward the Pies have played whilst finding the ball themselves. With the addition of Judd McVee and the improvement of Trent Rivers, Melbourne have a complete backline who can both defend well 1v1 but also intercept and create when moving the ball quickly outside of the defensive fifty.  The worry will be the Magpies small forwards for the Demons. Jamie Elliot didn’t play on Queens Birthday yet has kicked seven goals in his last two encounters against Melbourne and the likes of Bobby Hill and Beau McCreery will also be suited by wet conditions. If Melbourne can lock down the smaller Collingwood forwards it will go a long way to them winning.

The Demons are a team that prides itself on contested ball and clearance dominance and like I spoke about earlier, the likes of Viney, Oliver, and Petracca don’t only win clearances but they win them with ease which puts plenty of pressure on the oppositions back six. If they can gain ascendancy around the contest again throughout this game the likes of Darcy Moore and Isaac Quaynor can be found out in one-on-one contests. Dominate around the ball, get it moving their way, and let the small forwards go to work on a wet night. That is the avenue to victory for the Demons.

VERDICT: I think it will be a low scoring arm wrestle this one. Melbourne by four points in a thriller.

CARLTON VS SYDNEY – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MCG

Talk about two in-form teams. Both the Blues and Swans seasons looked dead and buried at about round twelve but the Blues have won nine of their past ten to finish fifth whilst the Swans have won seven of their last nine to scrape into September. Sam Docherty, Patrick Cripps, and Jesse Motlop all look likely to return against the Swans which leaves some selection dilemmas for Michael Voss. Corey Durdin is almost certain to be dropped which means two others will be dropped. Lachie Fogarty and Paddy Dow could be the luckless two. For the Swans, Tom Papley is a massive inclusion and one of Dylan Stephens or Sam Wicks will make way. It will most likely be a wet and wild affair!

WHERE CARLTON CAN WIN:

Carlton have a brilliant clearance and contested ball midfield who ranks as the third best in the competition behind only Brisbane and the Bulldogs and they get their inspirational captain back after missing the round 24 game against the Giants. The Swans on the other hand rank second last for clearances in the competition. When they lost the clearance battle in the last eight games of the season, they lost them by an average of nine which is just way too much. The last time these two faced off the Swans evened up the clearance count and the likes of Patrick Cripps, Matt Kennedy, and Adam Cerra combined for just fifty-three disposals for the match. If the Blues inside midfielders such as Cripps, Hewett, Cerra, and Dow/Kennedy can get on top, it is hard to see the Swans containing the Blues forward fifty talent.

The other area Carlton can beat Sydney in is through their sheer firepower up forward. Charlie Curnow has won back-to-back Coleman Medals and kicked seventy-eight goals this season, whilst former Coleman Medallist Harry McKay plays second fiddle and is very capable of having a big night out. Curnow and McKay didn’t impact the game the last time these two teams played but that was down to inaccuracy. They still combined for eight scoring shots on the night. If they can kick straight and the ball finds an easy way into the forward fifty the twin towers of Princess Park should be able to get the job done and send the Blues into a semi-final, potentially against the Magpies.

WHERE SYDNEY CAN WIN:

The Swans need to essentially replicate what they did to Carlton in round eleven when they kept them to 51 points (admittedly the Blues kicked 6.15 that night). The likes of James Rowbottom, Luke Parker, Chad Warner, and Errol Gulden simply must halve the contest throughout the middle of the ground. When Carlton lose either the Clearance or contested ball stat, they struggle to chain up many good attacking plays. Their scoring comes off the back of their contest work and if Sydney can even that part of the ground up, they are more than capable in nearly every other area of the game to beat the Blues.

The other area where the Swans are always dangerous is their small and medium sized forwards. The likes of Isaac Heeney, Tom Papley, and Will Hayward can turn it on at any given moment and essentially take the game away from you. The Blues small and medium sized defenders have been good this season but Papley looms as the danger man. Adam Saad and Nic Newman can’t really go with him in the air and the likes of Kemp and McGovern can’t match him on the ground. I think he needs to kick about five for the Swans to win.

VERDICT: I think the Blues will win this with ease. Carlton by 30+ and the finals drought will finally be over. Lygon Street will be jumping!

ST KILDA VS GWS GIANTS – SATURDAY 3.20PM – MCG

These two teams were predicted to be closer to eighteenth than sixth and seventh at the start of the season and both teams should be proud of the improvement they have made. The Saints set their season up winning seven of their first ten whilst the Giants won nine of their last eleven to make the eight. Josh Battle and Max King look likely to return for the Saints and Seb Ross will do a last minute fitness test to see whether he returns. Jack Hayes will miss and one other Saint is likely to be unlucky. Finn Callaghan and Sam Taylor will undergo fitness tests later in the week to see whether they get up, whilst Toby Bedford will front the appeals board trying to overturn a one match suspension.

WHERE BOTH TEAMS CAN WIN:

The Saints under Ross Lyon are the best defensive team in the competition and they need to stay true to their game plan which is restricting opposition teams from scoring. In the last month of the season the Saints conceded an average of just 64 points which is clearly the best in the league. The Giants have averaged 109 points over the last month of the season so it is going to be a battle of two completely different styles of football. Both teams like to control the football and they both are similar in the way they move the ball. They both love springboarding and counter attacking out of defence by both hand and foot. This will be one of the main areas where the game is won and lost. Which team can intercept the ball and then which teams rebounding defenders can have the most influence. For the Saints, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Jack Sinclair, and Mason Wood have been terrific all season and for the Giants the likes of Lachie Whitfield, Lachie Ash, and Harrison Himmelberg have been terrific in the back half of the season.

The other area the game will be won and lost in is through the forward halves for both teams. Both teams have a good main focal point (Max King for the Saints and Jesse Hogan for the Giants) but their small forwards are the ones who generally do the damage. Toby Greene has kicked sixty goals this season and is arguably the best small forward in the competition and the likes of Brent Daniels and Toby Bedford are important to the way they play. For the Saints, the likes of Jack Higgins (35 goals) and Daniel Butler (33 goals) have been brilliant for the Saints. Whichever small forward group can apply pressure and hit the scoreboard better probably wins this game.

VERDICT: It will be a tussle this one. I am tipping the Giants by under two goals.

BRISBANE VS PORT ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 7.20PM – GABBA

These two teams have been the second and third best team for the majority of the season and give themselves a chance to go straight through to a Preliminary final on Saturday night. Brisbane won nine of their last eleven on the run home to finish second whilst the Power stumbled their way to finals losing four of their last six games. Trent McKenzie will return for the Power to boost their defensive stocks and Todd Marshall will return to boost their forward stocks, whilst Lincoln McArthy will return for the Lions. These teams played each other all the way back in round one where the Power walked away with a nine goal win at the Adelaide Oval.

WHERE BRISBANE CAN WIN:

Port Adelaide’s biggest weakness is their defence and they face the best offensive team in the competition at home. Joe Daniher has kicked 51 goals this season and is one of the best key forwards in the competition. Eric Hipwood has kicked 39 goals and has had some brilliant games this season. The likes of Allir Allir and Trent McKenzie will be giving away plenty of both strength and height and we haven’t even covered the small forwards. Charlie Cameron kicked 53 goals this season and is probably the second best small forward in the competion. Port Adelaide simply don’t have a match up for him. Add in the likes of Zac Bailey (26 goals) and Cameron Rayner (20 goals) and the Lions attack, at least on paper, look like being too strong for the Port Adelaide defence.

WHERE PORT ADELAIDE CAN WIN:

The young midfield triplet of Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, and Jason Horne-Francis must be at their very best in order for the Power to win. They face the best clearance team in the competition and if they don’t halve the contest and clearance game, they simply don’t stand a chance of winning. Lachie Neale has a brilliant record against the Power and Willem Drew will go to him and simply must get the job done and at least contain his influence on the game. Port Adelaide have a better mix of clearance winning players (Wines, Butters, Horne-Francis, Drew, and Rozee all averaging over 3.5 a game) which they can use to their advantage if they can contain one of Neale or Josh Dunkley who both average over five. If they can halve the midfield battle their forward line has shown throughout the year that they can kick big scores, evident by them ranking third for points per game this season. They must halve the midfield battle. It is time for these youngsters to lift in September and show they are the real deal.

VERDICT: I think the Lions will run away with this one. Brisbane by 30+ and they will have one foot inside the MCG on Grand Final day.

The post AFL Finals Week 1 Preview: The Lions To Roar And The Pies To Have Their Wings Clipped! first appeared on The Mock Sports.

COLLINGWOOD VS BRISBANE – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MARVEL STADIUM

I think there is some value to be found in this game. COLLINGWOOD 1-39 – $2.30 seems like a good bet. The Pies don’t really put teams to the sword a whole lot but I think they will do enough to be beating Brisbane who seem to fall short against the best teams. Darcy Moore is a big out but the Pies system is the best in the competition. TOTAL GAME POINTS OVER (+168.5) – $1.88 also seems a good bet. In their last two encounters, the totals have been 199 and 189 which are well above this mark. On a fast deck at Marvel, the ball should be pinging around quickly and both attacks have the capability of kicking a big score. I like a couple of prop bets.

ZAC BAILEY 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.20

He has hit this mark in two of his last five games and has been very close to hitting it in another two. With Will Ashcroft missing he is playing a bigger role throughout the middle of the ground and the Pies have struggled to contain inside midfielders over the last six weeks. He plays his best footy against the Magpies and I think he will play well again on Friday Night.

JORDAN DE GOEY 2+ GOALS – $3.60/3+ GOALS – $11

I thought this represented good value. Admittedly, his goal-kicking has been missing for the best part of two months but he does love playing against Brisbane and the last year when these two teams played, he kicked four and was probably the best afield. He averages two goals a game against the Lions since 2019 and has played them five times in that period which I feel like is a solid sample size. Speculative, but we are getting a good price to find out.

RICHMOND VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MCG

I think the obvious bet is RICHMOND 1-39 – $2.20. The Tigers don’t usually smash teams but they should do enough to beat the hapless Kangaroos in what will be Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt’s last game in the Yellow and Black. Shout out to those two. As a Richmond supporter, they have been all I have ever known as a footy supporter. Icons of this great football club. I like some of the prop bets here.

LIAM BAKER 2+ GOALS – $2.90/3+ GOALS – $7.50

This might be the bet of the weekend. Baker has kicked two goals in three of his last four games and in most of those he has been playing against much better defences than this one. The major focus will be on Jack Riewoldt and Dustin Martin from a North Melbourne perspective and he will again hit the scoreboard here. His chances might even enhance with rain which you can’t say about many forwards.

JY SIMPKIN 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.95/30+ DISPOSALS – $4.25

He hasn’t been at his ball-winning best as of late but he has every chance to bounce back to that here. This Richmond midfield give away disposals to inside midfielders every week and in his last two encounters with the Tigers, he has recorded 34 disposals on both occasions. I think he should be much shorter than that current quote.

LUKE DAVIES-UNIACKE 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.20

He is one of the best inside midfielders in the competition and he loves playing against the Tigers. He has recorded 28 and 38 disposals in his last two meetings with Richmond and has hit this mark in two out of his last four games against better midfields. I think he will be the leading possession-getter on the ground.

NICK VLASTUIN 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.95/25+ DISPOSALS – $6

I think the Tigers defenders will find plenty of ball in this game and Vlastuin will be given the role of intercepting again this week and will find plenty of the footy. In his last two games against the Kangaroos he has recorded 22 and 30 disposals and I think the ball will be in North’s forward fifty enough for the Tigers intercept and rebounding defenders to find the footy.

GOLD COAST VS CARLTON – SATURDAY 2.10PM – HERITAGE BANK STADIUM

This is a horrible betting game regarding prop betting but I think there is one obvious bet here and that is CARLTON AT THE LINE (-10.5) – $1.90. The Blues have won eight in a row and will seemingly get Harry McKay back in what is a big boost to their forward line. The one area the Suns are brilliant in is their clearance and contested ball work and I feel like Carlton’s midfield will negate that which will render the Suns’ game plan ineffective. They beat them by ten goals only nine weeks ago so I think the current line is fairly generous.

GWS GIANTS VS ESSENDON – SATURDAY 4.35PM – GIANTS STADIUM

This is a horrible betting game. The inside midfielders should dominate but there is no value around players being $1.50 to get 30+ disposals or forwards at $1.60 to kick 3+ goals. Just watch this one!

ST KILDA VS GEELONG – SATURDAY 7.25PM – MARVEL STADIUM

There are some nice betting opportunities under the roof on Saturday Night. The main bet is GEELONG 1-39 – $2.20. I think the Cats are a better team than the Saints who have overachieved to this point of the season and Geelong are playing for their season here. Tom Hawkins is likely to return to stretch the Saints back six and I think the likes of Atkins, Holmes, and Bruhn can match it with the Saints midfielders. There is good value around some prop bets.

BRAD CROUCH 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.50

This is Brad Crouch’s midfield now and I think he will lead the way again against the Cats. He has hit this mark twice in his last three games against arguably better midfields than the Cats when playing Hawthorn and Carlton. He loves playing at Marvel and I think with the dominance Marshall will get in the ruck he will have plenty of opportunities to win clearance and then find plenty of the ball away from the stoppage.

MASON WOOD 25+ DISPOSALS – $3

Geelong have struggled to contain these half-back and winger types all season and I was staggered to see $3 in this market. He has hit this mark in three out of his last four games and he will be too quick and powerful for the outside Geelong players in Mitch Duncan and Isaac Smith. He will find plenty of the footy.

MAX HOLMES 20+ DISPOSALS – $2.30

The last time he played the Saints he garnered 24 disposals and he plays good footy at Marvel Stadium historically. I expect the game to be fast-paced so whether he plays on the wing or throughout the middle of the ground, he should still find plenty of the ball.

ZACH GUTHRIE 20+ DISPOSALS – $3

We won on Guthrie when he was around the same price a while ago and we think he can win again for us here. The Saints struggle against intercept defenders and once the Saints lock down on Stewart I think Guthrie will be the man tasked with intercepting the Saints’ forward fifty entries and aside from Max King and Jack Higgins, the Saints’ forward line won’t prove too much of a threat as long as the ball has some pressure on it when coming out of stoppages.

ADELAIDE VS SYDNEY – SATURDAY 7.40PM – ADELAIDE OVAL

The main is bet is ADELAIDE AT THE LINE (-11.5) – $1.90 here. The Crows are brilliant at home and I think their improvement around clearance and contested ball combined with the potency of their forward fifty will be enough to see them winning by at least two goals against this Sydney team. I like some prop bets.

RORY LAIRD 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.08

The last time Laird played the Swans was when he recorded 38 disposals and was clearly the best player on the ground. He is one of the best accumulators in football this man and he will be inside the contest which means he will most likely find plenty of the footy against a very poor contested ball team in Sydney.

MATT CROUCH 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.10

Rinse and repeat what I said about Laird. Crouch is an accumulator and is fantastic around clearance and contested ball which is an area Sydney are very poor in. He has had thirty in each of his last three games and I can’t see that changing on Saturday night.

TOM PAPLEY 2+ GOALS – $1.70/3+ GOALS – $3.20

The Crows struggle against small forwards and have done all season and this guy is one of the best small forwards going around. Arguably in All-Australian contention, I expect Papley to get a good match-up in this game and for the likes of Amartey, McDonald, and McLean to bring the ball to the ground enough to ensure he gets his chances to hit the scoreboard.

WESTERN BULLDOGS VS WEST COAST – SUNDAY 1.10PM – MARVEL STADIUM

This is the definition of a no-bet game. The odds on the Bulldogs players are unders because the bookies are scared and I can’t see the Eagles hitting the scoreboard or getting their hands on the footy too much.

MELBOURNE VS HAWTHORN – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MCG

There is no value in the H2H or line/handicap betting here. Melbourne should win and the line is probably about right, whilst I also have no confidence on how high-scoring the game will be. I like one prop bet here.

LACHIE HUNTER 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.60

The Hawks have struggled against outside winger types over the last month and Hunter is in career-best form. He has hit this mark in three out of his last five games and I am happy to back him in here.

FREMANTLE VS PORT ADELAIDE – SUNDAY 4.40PM – OPTUS STADIUM

Yet again for this Sunday, I don’t think there is any value in the H2H or line and handicap betting. Port Adelaide should win, but their form hasn’t been good losing four of their last five whilst the Dockers can play some good footy at home. I like some prop bets.

ZAK BUTTERS 30+ DISPOSALS – $2

He is playing against a midfield who is of a similar size than him and he absolutely feasts on these types of midfields. That was evident in the Showdown when he was brilliant against a midfield that consisted of Rory Laird and Matt Crouch. Aside from Caleb Serong, this Fremantle midfield struggles in the contest and has done so all season which I assume Butters will take full advantage of.

SAM STURT 2+ GOALS – $2.25

Port Adelaide’s defence is arguably their weak link and they struggle against medium-sized forwards which is what Sturt is, to a degree. He has kicked eleven goals in his last five games and has hit this mark three times in that run so at better than even money, I am happy to back him in again here.

GAMBLE RESPONSIBLY. CHANCES ARE YOU ARE ABOUT TO LOSE. SET A DEPOSIT LIMIT.

The post AFL Round 23 Betting Preview, Tips And Best Bets: An In And Under Type Of Week first appeared on The Mock Sports.

COLLINGWOOD VS GEELONG – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MCG

There doesn’t seem to be any value in the H2H markets or line markets in this game. I think the bookmakers have got this one right (Cats will probably start a touch shorter) but there is some prop bets that have caught my attention.

JOSH DAICOS 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.70

Without his brother or Steele Sidebottom in the side you would expect him to be the main outlet man for the likes of Mitchell and De Goey to give it too and he does have a good record against the Cats. His last three games against Geelong have seen him gather 29, 27, and 21 disposals and those Geelong wingers are another year older and a touch slower so if it does become a free flowing contest, he will do them for speed and undoubtedly cover the ground better than they will. He’ll have a good night!

JORDAN DE GOEY 25+ DISPOSALS – $2

The Cats have struggled against other teams’ inside midfielders in recent weeks considering the injuries to Guthrie and Blicavs and this guy is the Magpies’ best inside and clearance midfielder and I expect him to get plenty of ball both in the contest and explode away from the contest. He has had just an even last six weeks and I expect him to start firing on the run to the finals. He could be the match winner.

GARY ROHAN 2+ GOALS – $2.80/3+ GOALS – $7

Ah the enigma that is Gary Rohan. As much as we love to get into him, he is important to what the Cats do forward of fifty and he has been terrific against the Magpies in recent years recording three and two goals against them the last two times they have met. With Nathan Murphy under an injury cloud and Isaac Quaynor likely going to Ollie Henry, it might free up Rohan and allow him to hit the scoreboard. We are getting decent odds to find out!

ESSENDON VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MARVEL STADIUM

Yet again, I can’t see much value in this game from a H2H or line betting market. I could have the Kangaroos a touch shorter considering they were only beaten by 6 points the last time they played but Essendon still have finals to play for and will want to bounce back after a poor game last week. I have found just the one prop bet I do like though.

ZACH MERRETT 30+ DISPOSALS – $1.75

Zach Merrett loves playing against the Kangaroos, recording 34 and 39 disposals the last two times the teams have met. North Melbourne struggle against inside midfielders and I think he and Darcy Parish should rack them up against an inexperienced North Melbourne midfield.

SYDNEY VS GOLD COAST – SATURDAY 1.45PM – SCG

I think the TOTAL GAME POINTS UNDERS (+165.5) seems like a good bet here. Both teams’ defensive systems have held up okay over the last month and neither team scores overly heavily either. Happy to take the Unders as they would have to buck the trend to go over it. I like a few prop bets here.

MATT ROWELL 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.95/25+ DISPOSALS – $4.80

The young Gold Coast Bull was tremendous the last time these two teams met in round one when recording 28 disposals and nine clearances and it would not surprise me if he did that again here. The Swans are still the worst clearance team in the competition and Rowell still averages close to eight clearances a game. I think you can pretty much bank ten disposals just from clearances in this game and he only needs to find another 10-15 disposals around the ground which he is very capable of doing.

NOAH ANDERSON 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.80

This is the same logic that I used for the Rowell bet. Sydney give up disposals to inside midfielders like Willy Wonka gives out chocolate bars and Anderson is the highest disposal-getting inside midfielder at the Suns. I think he and Rowell will find plenty of the ball and give the Suns a fair chance of winning the game by winning the territory battle for the Suns.

NICK BLAKEY 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.70/25+ DISPOSALS – $3.90

Gold Coast can struggle handling these running/intercept defenders purely because they don’t have the speed or willingness to chase and pressure at times and Blakey has made the most of that over the last two meetings recording 20 and 25 disposals. If he is allowed the license to run and carry, I think he can have a big game and drag the Swans across the line.

BRISBANE VS ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 4.35PM – GABBA

I am happy to back BRISBANE AT THE LINE (-21.5) here. The Crows got the better of them earlier in the season but inaccuracy did cost the Lions when they kicked 10.18 and the Gabba is an absolute fortress for the Lions. They should be beating the Crows by at least four goals on Saturday. I like a couple of prop bets here too.

JOSH DUNKLEY/LACHIE NEALE 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.90 & $2.35 RESPECTIVELY

I think the reason why the Lions will win is due to the dominance they will have in the midfield battle and that will be led by these two who are both superstars of the competition. The Adelaide midfield ranks as one of the worst in the competition for clearances and contested ball and that is the area of the game these two thrive on. I thought they both should have been in the red in this market. They will be the match winners for the Lions.

MELBOURNE VS CARLTON – SATURDAY 7.25PM – MCG

I think the obvious bet here is the TOTAL POINTS UNDER (+167.5) – $1.88 market. These two teams haven’t gone anywhere near that mark in their last two contests and I would argue their defences are probably stronger than ever considering both teams are in brilliant form. I like a couple of prop bets.

ANGUS BRAYSHAW 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.70/30+ DISPOSALS – $3.30

Brayshaw has been very good this season and has a terrific record as of late against Carlton. He has recorded 24 and 39 disposals in his last two encounters with the Blues and Carlton do struggle to contain those running half back and winger types which is what he is. He has hit the 25 disposal mark in four of his last five games and I think he will again here.

MAX GAWN 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.80

Big Max has been in brilliant touch since Brodie Grundy has been dropped and I think he finds a pretty weak ruck partnership to go up against in Marc Pittonet and Tom DeKoning. He only got the seventeen disposals last week but they were horrible conditions for ruckmen down in Tasmania and in his three weeks prior to that he recorded 28, 13, and 29 disposals. He will be the Blues’ main concern all night.

WEST COAST VS FREMANTLE – SATURDAY 8.10PM – OPTUS STADIUM

I think if you are betting on this game all you can do is lose. The first thought was to look at the inside midfielders for both teams but then I saw Tim Kelly at $1.40 for 25 disposals and Caleb Serong at $1.19. West Coast have been playing a touch better so I think the line is about right as well. Leaving this one alone.

HAWTHORN VS WESTERN BULLDOGS – SUNDAY 1.10PM – UTAS STADIUM

There is no value betting opportunities in the H2H or line markets in this contest. I did entertain the idea of the unders in the total points market but I also think the key forwards from both teams could play well. I like a few prop bets.

MITCH LEWIS 3+ GOALS – $1.90

All he has to do is kick straight to be hitting this mark. In their earlier contest this season he had just returned from injury and kicked 1.4 and he kicked 4.2 against this team last year. He is an incredibly good player and I think their defence will struggle to contain him.

AARON NAUGHTON 3+ GOALS – $2.40

I think Sicily will go to Ugle-Hagan which allows Naughton to get a favourable match up on whoever he plays against. He has recorded 4.3, 3.3, and 3.1 in his last three games against the Hawks and I can’t see that changing on Sunday. He will simply be too big and too athletic for whoever plays on him.

CALEB DANIEL 25+ DISPOSALS – $2.20

The Hawks give up disposals to half back and wingers and that is why Daniel should be hitting the 25 disposal mark here. The Dogs like to get the ball in his hands and I expect them to win the inside battle which should allow him to get some cheapies on the way to 25 disposals.

ST KILDA VS RICHMOND – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MARVEL STADIUM

The Tigers just don’t win at Marvel and that’s why I think the SAINTS H2H – $1.80 is a good bet. Last year when these teams met at Marvel the Saints beat the Tigers by 33 points for the Tigers to win the return fixture at their favoured MCG. I would argue that the Saints are better now and the Tigers want the season to be over. I like a few prop bets in this one.

BRAD CROUCH 30+ DISPOSALS – $2.10

The Tigers, outside of Tim Taranto and at times Shai Bolton, are horrid at containing opposition inside midfielders. The last two times these teams have met Crouch has had 33 and 29 disposals and I can’t see that changing in this game. With Jack Steele carrying an injury Crouch has stepped up to be the main man in that midfielders and the Tigers don’t tag. He’ll find plenty of the footy.

MARCUS WINDHAGER 20+ DISPOSALS – $1.95/25+ DISPOSALD – $4.80

With the likes of Clark and Billings out for the Saints, Windhager has had more midfield minutes and has taken the opportunity well. He has gone over 25 in two of his last four matches and I don’t think the Saints will be too conscious of the Tigers midfield which will allow him to go and hunt his own footy and if he does that, I can see him having a pretty big game.

JAYDEN SHORT 25+ DISPOSALS – $1.95

Short consistently hits around this number and he plays well against the Saints who historically struggle against half backs. In his last two games against the Saints, he has recorded 23 and 31 disposals and I think the ball will be in the Tigers defensive fifty enough for Short to find plenty of the ball. The Tigers love it in his hands, especially at Marvel.

SAM BANKS 15+ DISPOSALS – $1.70

Being a Tigers man I am pretty keen on this young man’s future and I think he can find plenty of the football on Sunday. He is very much like a young Jayden Short in terms of being a brilliant and long kick and as I said previously, the Saints struggle against those types in regard to containing their influence. He won’t really have a direct opponent and that should allow him to find the ball.

PORT ADELAIDE VS GWS – SUNDAY 4.40PM – ADELAIDE OVAL

With rumours of sickness sweeping through the Power this week, I think GWS AT THE LINE (+15.5) – $1.90 seems like a good bet. I love the way Adam Kingsley has this group playing and I think without Charlie Dixon the avenues to goal for the Power dry up and without Trent McKenzie (assumedly) the Toby Greene match-up shapes as a very dangerous one. I like a few prop bets.

DAN HOUSTON 25+ DISPOSALS – $2

I thought this might be the best value of the round. The Giants have allowed half backs to do what they like all year and Houston essentially plays like one and is a model of consistency hitting this mark in three of his last four games. The ball will be in neutral territory a fair bit in this game and that suits him. Should be hitting this mark.

KANE FARRELL 20+ DISPOSALS – $3.50

Bit more speculative this one but it is based off the idea that the Giants give up easy ball to small running defenders and that Port love it in his hands. He has hit this mark in two of his last five games but he does play better at home and outside of Greene the Port small defenders won’t have any major concerns which should allow him to try and attack.

HARRY HIMMELBERG 25+ DISPOSALS – $3

I thought he would be closer to red figures than black ones but here we are. Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley will take the two key forwards in Todd Marshall and Jeremy Finlayson which will allow him to be the main intercept defender all day. He had 26 a fortnight ago and in that game he took 12 marks and I can see him doing something similar again here.

So, those are my bets for this weekend? What are your best bets?

Think About What You Could Be Buying Instead. Set A Deposit Limit.

The post AFL Round 22 Betting Preview, Tips And Best Bets: Time To Celebrate Cheap Touches! first appeared on The Mock Sports.

WESTERN BULLDOGS VS RICHMOND – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MARVEL STADIUM

The Eighth placed Bulldogs face off against the eleventh-placed Richmond with only half a game separating them in terms of ladder position. The Bulldogs have lost three of their last four games whilst the Tigers have won three of their last four. Liam Jones and Ed Richards are likely to return against the Tigers to offset the losses of Alex Keath and Josh Bruce. Jayden Short and Captain Toby Nankervis will return for the Tigers with whoever going out likely to be unlucky.

WHERE THE BULLDOGS CAN WIN:

The Bulldogs have one of the best midfields in football and it is the main area in which they can dominate against the Tigers. The Dogs are ranked second in the team to opponent clearances per game differential whilst the Tigers rank sixteenth in this area with only Sydney and West Coast being worse. The last time these two teams played in round four Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar, and Tom Liberatore combined for twenty-eight clearances and they were clearly the difference in the game. It is hard to see that changing on Friday Night considering the only Tiger to improve since then in the midfield has been Tim Taranto. If the Bulldogs can gain dominance out of the stoppages and run it out with some ease, the likes of Aaron Naughton, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, and Cody Weightman should be very hard to stop considering the form of Tigers Captain Dylan Grimes has been headed on a downward spiral.

WHERE RICHMOND CAN WIN:

The Tigers’ avenue to victory will be getting speed on the ball. The Bulldogs like a more contested and slow game of football which protects their defence and the Tigers are the complete opposite and love chaos football. The likes of Shai Bolton, Daniel Rioli, Kamdyn McIntosh and Liam Baker are vital cogs to this Richmond team and if they can get the ball forward quickly the Tigers have shown they can score heavily since Andrew McQualter took over as coach. Richmond have averaged 96 points a game over the last month and the Bulldogs have struggled against small and medium-sized forwards which the Tigers have plenty of. The lack of Dustin Martin will hurt the Tigers massively but the likes of Noah Cumberland, Liam Baker, Marlion Pickett, and Rhyan Mansell will have to do the damage for the Tigers. If they can get it in there quickly, they can kick a winning score.

TIP: The Tigers will struggle without Dusty. Bulldogs by six goals in a comfortable win.

ESSENDON VS WEST COAST – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MARVEL STADIUM

The Bombers face the last placed Eagles on Saturday afternoon in what must be said, is a match that is hard to get excited about. Essendon have lost four of their last five and face an uphill battle to play finals and the Eagles are playing for pride. Jeremy McGovern and Josh Rotham come back in for the Eagles whilst Elijah Tsatas will debut for the Bombers.  

MATCH OVERVIEW:

Both of these teams struggle around the clearances and contested ball. Outside of Darcy Parish the Bombers don’t have another really good inside midfielder and the same can be said for Tim Kelly and the rest of the Eagles midfield. The game will be won and lost in this area. Without Jordan Ridley, Essendon are conceding on average 104 points a game over the last three weeks and without Tom Barrass the Eagles’ defence looks very shaky as well. Whichever team can get on top around the contested ball (which will lead to easy inside 50s) is the likely winner. Both teams have weapons inside forward fifty and if they get a good look at it, they can kick a winning score.

TIP: Essendon by four goals. It will be closer than some are predicting.

ADELAIDE VS GOLD COAST – SATURDAY 2.10PM – ADELAIDE OVAL

Both Adelaide and Gold Coast find themselves on nine wins after twenty rounds and both teams must win in order to keep their season alive. Gold Coast were excellent when beating Brisbane last week whilst Adelaide were also fantastic when beating Port Adelaide in the Showdown. If they play like they did last week, this game should be an excellent contest. Touk Miller goes out for the Suns whilst Jordan Butts and Rory Sloane go out for the Crows.

WHERE ADELAIDE CAN WIN:

The Crows strength is how quickly they can score and that is evident by them ranking first for points per game this season. Gold Coast can be scored against heavily at times and the likes of Taylor Walker (61 goals), Darcy Fogarty (30 goals), and Ben Keays (18 goals) can hit the scoreboard hard. The Crows will look to use speed around the ground to try and attack the Suns lack of leg speed and if they can outrun them and get the ball in quickly towards their potent forwards, they can kick a winning score.

WHERE THE SUNS CAN WIN:

Gold Coast pride themselves on being dominant around clearance and contested ball and it is the area they will try and exploit again on Saturday. Adelaide are a poor clearance and contested ball team and the Suns have two of the best inside midfielders in the game in Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson. They combined for nineteen clearances, forty-three disposals, and three goals the last time these two teams played each other and I don’t see how the Crows can stop them this time around either. With Jordan Butts going out of the side the Crows defence is very inexperienced with James Borlase (debutant), Josh Worrell (13 games), and Mark Keane (6 games) being the key posts. Jack Lukosius and Ben King were dominant in their last encounter in Darwin and there is a high chance of that happening again.

TIP: Gold Coast by two goals. They can surprise the Crows at home.

HAWTHORN VS COLLINGWOOD – SATURDAY 4.35PM – MCG

Two modern-day foes face off at the MCG in what is a game that always attracts a big crowd. The Hawks and Magpies have faced off in plenty of finals over the last couple of decades but that is a far cry to now where the Pies are a game clear on top whilst the Hawks are a bottom-four outfit. The Pies have only lost three games for the season and the Hawks have won just five, which tells you where both clubs are at. There is a host of changes at the Hawks which sees Sam Frost out of the side whilst Bobby Hill and Ash Johnson return for the Pies in the absence of Mason Cox.

MATCH OVERVIEW:

The young Hawthorn midfield have done a good job at holding their own this season and I can’t see that changing against a Collingwood outfit who whilst having a good midfield, don’t have a brilliant one. The area that the game will be won and lost in is whether Hawthorn can break through the Magpie defence. The likes of Darcy Moore, Nathan Murphy, Isaac Quaynor, and Brayden Maynard have been terrific all year and the Hawks rank sixteenth in points per game. Collingwood rank as the best defensive team in the league and outside of Mitch Lewis and Luke Bruest, they struggle to find goal scorers. The Magpies should be able to kick a winning score considering the lack of key defenders in the Hawks’ back six.

TIP: Collingwood should win easily. Magpies by over seven goals.

GEELONG VS PORT ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 7.25PM – GMHBA STADIUM

There is plenty on the line down at the sleepy hollow that is Geelong on Saturday night. The Cats sit outside the eight and are half a game away from September action and they come up against Port Adelaide who now need to keep winning to get a home final. Aliir Aliir goes out of the side and Tom Jonas returns whilst Tom Hawkins and Mark Blicavs go out for the Cats with Esava Ratugolea coming back into the 22.

WHERE GEELONG CAN WIN:

Without Aliir or Lachie Jones the Port Adelaide defence becomes very undersized and the likes of Jeremy Cameron, Gary Rohan, and in all likelihood, Jack Henry might really stretch the Power defence whose tallest player is Trent McKenzie at 191cm. The Power defence can be scored against rather easily and if it is a dry night and the Cats can even up general play it will be hard for Port Adelaide to stop Geelong from putting on a big score. The last time the teams played each other it was a complete smashing in the clearances which led to easy inside fifty marks for the Power. The Geelong midfield need to even up the contest and give their forward line an opportunity to kick a winning score against an undersized Port defence.

WHERE THE POWER CAN WIN:

The Power will look to replicate what they did to Geelong at home on Saturday by gaining the ascendancy around the contest. Port Adelaide are ranked as the sixth best clearance team in the league whilst Geelong are ranked fourteenth and are still missing the likes of Guthrie and Blicavs. If they can get on top in this area, it spells trouble for Geelong considering Port are ranked third in points per game this season. If they can get on top around the ball, they will control the game and allow the likes of Dixon, Marshall, and Finlayson to kick a winning score.

TIP: Hard game to predict this one. Port Adelaide by under a goal in a thriller.

GWS GIANTS VS SYDNEY SWANS – SATURDAY 7.30PM – GIANTS STADIUM

This is slowly becoming one of football’s greatest rivalries and we see another edition of it on Saturday Night. The Giants have won seven in a row and find themselves in the top six whilst the Swans have won their last three and sit half a game out of the eight. Jesse Hogan and Tom Green come in for the Giants whilst Dane Rampe and Lance Franklin go out for the Swans with Aaron Francis and Tom Hickey coming in.

WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN:

The Giants midfield needs to lift and it is the one area of the team that is really struggling currently. They rank as the fourth worst clearance team in the competition and the last time these two teams met, they were beaten by eleven in centre bounce clearances and it was the only thing that kept Sydney in the contest. Fortunately for the Giants, Sydney rank as the second-worst clearance team in the competition. The inclusion of Tom Green is an important one for the Giants and if the likes of Josh Kelly, Stephen Coniglio, and Callan Ward can get enough ball inside fifty, the undersized and under-strength Sydney defence that is missing Paddy McCartin and Dane Rampe may struggle against the likes of Jesse Hogan, Jake Riccardi, and Toby Greene. Even the contest and it will go a long way to winning the game.

WHERE SYDNEY CAN WIN:

Sydney need to find different avenues to goal if they are to win this game and their two key forwards in Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey need to at the very minimum compete and bring the ball to ground. Lance Franklin (not playing) and Logan McDonald combined for six goals the last time these two teams met but Sam Taylor wasn’t playing and he is arguably the best defender in the game. Jack Buckley has been good at holding the second forward and that allows the likes of Nick Haynes and Connor Idun to intercept at will. The likes of Isaac Heneey, Tom Papley, and Will Hayward probably need to combine for at least eight goals if the Swans are to keep their season alive because it is hard to see the key forwards having much of an influence.

TIP: Think the Giants stamp themselves in the eight here. GWS by four goals in a high-scoring game!

NORTH MELBOURNE VS MELBOURNE – SUNDAY 1.10PM – BLUNDSTONE ARENA

North Melbourne are potentially at their lowest ebb as a football club after losing to the Eagles last week in Perth who had only won one game for the season, whilst the Demons had one of the best wins of their season when beating an in-form Richmond outfit at the MCG ad now sit at ease in the top four.

MATCH OVERVIEW:

Everything points to it being a long day at the office for the Kangaroos. Their only shinning light may be the fact that Melbourne’s forwards (at least individually) can be subdued in 1v1 contests. The likes of Jacob Van Rooyen and Harrison Petty don’t strike fear into many defences but if the North Melbourne midfield allow the Demons easy ball coming out of stoppages it seems likely that it will be near on impossible for the Kangaroos to defend. Melbourne should be able to control the game from defence with Lever and May going up against a one man band in Nick Larkey and I think it should be comfortable for the Demons.

TIP: Melbourne 40+. I think it will be an easy day out for the Demons.

ST KILDA VS CARLTON – SUNDAY 3.20PM – MARVEL STADIUM

The fifth-placed Saints take on the seventh-placed Blues in what should be a blockbuster on Sunday afternoon. For the winner, finals are nearly assured and for the loser, they are right back in the pack and fighting for their season over the next three weeks. Carlton have won six in a row and are coming off a win against table toppers Collingwood whilst the Saints bounced back to form against the Hawks. Max King, Brad Hill, and Jack Hayes are the likely inclusions for the Saints whilst Carlton will miss Adam Cerra and Mitch McGovern with Ed Curnow and Sam Durdin the likely replacements.

WHERE THE SAINTS CAN WIN:

The last time these two teams played each other the Saints made the Carlton dominance in disposal a non-factor and they need to do that again here. Without Harry McKay the Saints should be able to double-team Charlie Curnow providing there is some pressure up the ground and the other Blues forwards (with them also missing Jack Silvagni) can also find it hard to kick multiple goals. The other area in which the Saints must fire in is their contested ball and clearance work. Without Adam Cerra and Sam Walsh, the Blues are missing on average eight clearances a game and that puts plenty of pressure on Captain Patrick Cripps. If the likes of Jack Steele, Brad Crouch, and Mitch Owens can win their own ball and apply pressure going the other way, it will go a long way in making sure they can shut down the Blues’ scoring opportunities again.

WHERE THE BLUES CAN WIN:

Carlton have went back to their clearance and contested work being their one wood and even though they are missing some midfielders the likes of Patrick Cripps, Ed Curnow, George Hewett, Sam Docherty, and Paddy Dow can still get some dominance in their against most teams and the Saints, statistically, are a poor clearance team. By getting on top in this area they can protect their defence (who are now without Mitch McGovern) and give their forwards good opportunities to both kick goals and to apply pressure which the likes of Fogarty, Owies, Motlop, and Cunningham have been doing over the last month. Get on top around the ball and the Blues are a big chance. Don’t, and the Saints will shut them down just like they did earlier this season.

TIP: Absolutely no idea. I trust Carlton more so the Blues by ten points in a close one.

FREMANTLE VS BRISBANE – SUNDAY 4.40PM – OPTUS STADIUM

The season looks over for the Dockers but they still are playing for pride at home against a Premiership fancy and they will want to give their supporters something to be happy about. Brisbane on the other hand, are fighting for a home Preliminary Final which could go a long way to them winning a Premiership. Oscar McInerney and Keidan Coleman will go out for the Lions whilst the Dockers are likely to remain unchanged.

MATCH OVERVIEW:

Well, the obvious question is where both teams can win. For Fremantle, it is probably to play brilliant counter attack football which they can do at times. The likes of Hayden Young, Jordan Clark, Luke Ryan, Liam Henry, and Sam Switkowski can be devastating by hand or with leg speed if you don’t apply pressure to them and if they do get some open space, they can win the game for Fremantle if they get it in there quick and let the smalls like Schultz, Walters, and Frederick go to work.

For Brisbane, it is to dominate the contest and apply pressure around the ball which can let them control the game. They are the best clearance team in the competition and the Dockers can struggle with that which allows the likes of Jackson Payne, Harris Andrews, and Ryan Lester to intercept whilst at the other end of the ground allow quick ball into the likes of Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, Charlie Cameron, and Cameron Rayner. It seems and looks as though this will be what happens on Sunday afternoon.

TIP: Brisbane by five goals. The Lions have too much on the line to be dropping this.

The post AFL Round 21 Preview: It Is All On The Line! first appeared on The Mock Sports.

SYDNEY VS ST KILDA – THURSDAY 7.10PM – SCG

This is a big game for both clubs. Sydney have breathed some life back into their season after wins against North Melbourne and Carlton and they simply must win this game to remain a chance of playing finals. For the Saints, they have lost two out of their last three and were very disappointing against Hawthorn in round eleven. If they lose this game, they will be hanging on to eighth at the end of the round. Mitch Owens is expected to return for the Saints whilst Dane Rampe will be a welcome inclusion for the Swans. Luke Parker will miss via suspension in what is a big loss for Sydney.

WHERE BOTH TEAMS CAN WIN:

This game will be won and lost in the midfield and around clearance and stoppages. Both teams have been relatively terrible in that area of the game this year. The Saints rank seventeenth in clearances per game yet the Swans have the worst team to opponent clearance differential in the competition at -4.5. The Saints are thirteenth in this stat at -1.1. The loss of Luke Parker to this Sydney midfield is significant. He leads the team in clearances per game (5.5) and in contested possessions per game (11). Without him, the Swans have to find clearances from other players. Isaac Heeney was played throughout the midfield against the Blues and amassed seven clearances and I think he and Tom Papley might have to try and replace Parker’s influence combined.

For the Saints, it is Captain Jack Steele who must lift. He is averaging his lowest clearance numbers for the last four seasons in 2023 and has been very poor for the last few weeks. If the Saints are to gain ascendancy in this are of the game it needs to be the likes of Steele and Ross who lift to help the likes of Brad Crouch and Rowan Marshall get the ball going their way.

TIP: Toss a coin here really. I’ll tip the Saints by eight points in a low-scoring game.

WESTERN BULLDOGS VS PORT ADELAIDE – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MARVEL STADIUM

A mouth-watering clash awaits us on Friday Night football. The Dogs are coming off back-to-back losses after winning five in a row and the Power are looking to make it ten wins in a row and to have the chance to be on top of the table after round thirteen. Travis Boak and Charlie Dixon will return for the Power whilst Bulldog Ed Richards will miss after doing his Hamstring against the Cats on the weekend.

WHERE THE BULLDOGS CAN WIN:

The Dogs’ connection between the midfielders and forwards has been poor this season (rank fourteenth in points per game) but they do pose some issues regarding matchups for this Port Adelaide defence. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan has got to the right spots in recent weeks and the shots on goal show that with him having ten shots in the last month and I think he will have either Tom Jonas or Lachlan Jones play on him who will be giving away plenty of height. The same can be said for the other key forward in Rory Lobb whose likely opponent in Trent McKenzie will be giving away 16cm and 17kgs. If the Dogs can break even or get on top in the middle of the ground and get a quick ball inside fifty so that they can manipulate some 1v1 opportunities, they can kick a big score. Cody Weightman will be buzzing around the forward fifty and the Power have struggled against small forwards at times this season. There isn’t an obvious match-up for him and it wouldn’t surprise to see him hitting the scoreboard hard after a quiet month.

WHERE THE POWER CAN WIN:

The Power needs to apply pressure around the ball on the Dogs’ midfielders as we have seen this season that when that occurs, the Dogs’ midfield doesn’t use the ball well. Bailey Smith is the main culprit. He is finding plenty of the ball on the outside but his disposal efficiency over the last fortnight (57% from 23 disposals and 54% from 24 disposals) is killing the Dogs, especially via turnovers. The same argument can be applied to a few of these dogs Midfielders, Namely Adam Treloar and Tom Liberatore.

The other area the Power can target is their own forward fifty matchups. Jeremy Finlayson, Todd Marshall, and Charlie Dixon might be the best three-forward combination in the competition and outside of Liam Jones the Dogs’ key defenders in Ryan Gardner and Tim O’Brien can struggle against the best key forwards. There is an argument that Alex Keath should come back into the 22 to man Dixon/Finlayson. Ed Richards going out hurts their team defensive set up and I expect Bayley Williams will go back down there. The name of the game for the Power will be to get it in quick and lower the eyes to hit up Marshall and Finlayson on the lead.

TIP: This will be tight. I think the Power will win by two goals in a back-and-forth game of footy.

HAWTHORN VS BRISBANE – SATURDAY 1.45PM – MCG

The Lions come off the bye and a loss before that to the Crows and they have had a week to stew on that loss, whilst the Hawks found themselves 82 points down at halftime against the Power last weekend. This is simply a must-win game for the Lions to stay in the top four and the Hawks will just be hoping for a competitive four-quarter effort. James Sicily will return for the Hawks whilst Jackson Payne will return for the Lions.

WHERE HAWTHORN CAN WIN:

Brisbane score plenty but the opposite of that is the fact that they can be scored against at times. The Hawthorn forward line is working together nicely after the return of Mitch Lewis (sixteen goals from six games) and they are averaging 108 points scored over the last three weeks. The Brisbane defence is a good one but the likes of Lewis (sixteen goals), Bruest (23 goals), and Tyler Brockman (10 goals) can be a handful for any defence. The MCG should also help the Hawks’ cause as the Lions have a terrible record at the ground.

WHERE BRISBANE CAN WIN:

The Lions have the Hawks covered in nearly every area but I think their forward line will dominate the Hawks’ defence. They rank second in points per game and the Hawks are the third-worst defensive team in the league which spells trouble for them. The likes of James Blanck and Sam Frost are going to have their work cut out for them defending Joe Daniher (30 goals) and Eric Hipwood (16 goals) and the Lions’ small forwards are arguably the best in the competition. Blake Hardwick is a brilliant defender and the match-up between him and Charlie Cameron (32 goals) shapes as a brilliant one. The problem lies with everyone else. Aside from Hardwick, they don’t have any lockdown small defenders and the likes of Zac Bailey (14 goals), Cameron Rayner (11 goals), and Lincoln McCarthy (10 goals) pose as very dangerous matchups for the likes of Lachlan Bramble, Seamus Mitchell, and Bailey McDonald.

TIP: This one could get ugly. Brisbane by ten goals in a high-scoring affair.

ADELAIDE VS WEST COAST – SATURDAY 4.35PM – ADELAIDE OVAL

The Eagles showed some fight last week against the Magpies but ultimately fell short and are one of the worst teams we have seen in the AFL era with only one win after twelve games. Adelaide was beaten around the ball against a rampant Gold Coast outfit in Darwin and simply needs to improve that area of their game if they are to play finals in 2023. This is a must-win game for the Crows. Tom Doedee will miss for Adelaide whilst Luke Shuey will return for the Eagles.

WHERE ADELAIDE CAN WIN:

The Eagles will be without Tom Barrass again this week and that spells trouble against a tall and potent Adelaide forward line. The Eagles don’t have a recognised key defender and Adelaide boast a tall forward combination of Taylor Walker (28 goals), Darcy Fogarty (19 goals), and Riley Thilthorpe (10 goals). You would think the Adelaide midfield could at least halve and if not win the contest around the midfield and if they do that, I think the key forwards could have a big day out. If the Eagles do get too player-conscious of the tall forwards, the likes of Josh Rachele (15 goals), Luke Pedlar (15 goals), and Izak Rankine (21 goals) can also hurt you. I just think the Crows have too much firepower for an out-of-sorts and disjointed Eagles defence.

WHERE WEST COAST CAN WIN:

The Eagles have close to their best midfield now out on the park and are playing an Adelaide midfield that isn’t much better around clearance and contested ball than what they have been this year. The likes of Tim Kelly, Dom Sheed, Luke Shuey, and Elliot Yeo need to wind back the clock on Saturday afternoon if the Eagles are to have any chance of winning. If they can get on top in the midfield the Crows might feel the absence of Tom Doedee who is their best defender. Oscar Allen has been sensational this season (32 goals) and if they can find him some 1v1 opportunities he could very much put the Eagles in the game. Winning out of the middle is the only way the Eagles can win this game. Even if they halve it, I think the Crows will be too good for them.

TIP: I think the Crows will win this easily. Adelaide by six goals.

FREMANTLE VS RICHMOND – SATURDAY 7.25PM – OPTUS STADIUM

The Tigers season is on life support but a win against the odds in Western Australia against a finals contender would see them potentially only a game away from the eight and back in the hunt. Fremantle are looking to win five in a row and were terrific against Melbourne before their bye at the MCG. Nick Vlastuin and Maurice Rioli Jnr are a chance to return for the Tigers whilst Sean Darcy and Jaeger O’Meara will miss for the Dockers in what are big outs. Michael Walters is a test for this week whilst I expect Will Brodie to return to the team.

WHERE FREMANTLE CAN WIN:

The Dockers need to win the clearance and contested ball battle. The Tigers are a horrible clearance team and rank sixteenth in team-to-opponent differential in this area with a -4.2 number which is very low. Fremantle aren’t necessarily brilliant in this area but they are better than the Tigers and the likes of Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw need to dominate in this area. Serong is one of the best inside midfielders in the competition and leads the Fremantle midfield whilst Brayshaw and Brodie also average over five clearances a game. The Tigers’ defence is still a very good one and the only way teams have got through them this year is by repeat inside 50s and by winning the clearance and contested ball battle obviously they can get and then keep the ball inside their fifty. Fremantle have averaged over 100 points per game over the last month so their forwards are working well together. Win the contested ball battle and it will take them a long way to winning the game.

WHERE RICHMOND CAN WIN:

The Tigers threw caution to the wind last week against the Giants and scored over 100 points for the fourth time this season. Fremantle can be scored against (fifth worst defensive team in the competition) and if the Tigers can rebound from defence like they did last week with the likes of Noah Balta, Nathan Broad, and Daniel Rioli intercepting forward forays I think they can kick a winning score and prove troublesome for the Dockers. The Tigers champion in Dustin Martin has started to lift over the last month averaging twenty disposals and two goals a game and Jack Reiwoldt is coming off a five-goal outing against GWS. Marlion Pickett was brilliant in the last quarter and may benefit from the confidence boost whilst the likes of Tim Taranto and Dion Prestia hit the scoreboard yet again. Play through handball and short kicking out of defence and playing with some freedom is the name of the game for the Tigers. Get it forward by any means against a susceptible defence and if they get it in there enough I think they can win.

TIP: I think this will be another close one. Fremantle by eight points in a low-scoring game.

NORTH MELBOURNE VS GWS GIANTS – SUNDAY 3.20PM – BLUNDSTONE ARENA

Two teams that are playing for not a whole lot other than development for their youngsters here. North Melbourne has been unlucky not to get at least get one win over the last fortnight after heartbreaking losses to Sydney and Essendon whilst the Giants also lost a heartbreaker to the Tigers last Sunday. Nick Haynes will return for the Giants whilst Brent Daniels will miss. North Melbourne will lose Hugh Greenwood and Jy Simpkin and will be hoping Luke Davies-Uniacke can come back into the side along with Ben Cunnington who is an expected in.

WHERE THE KANGAROOS CAN WIN:

North Melbourne will be stressing on the fitness of Luke Davies-Uniacke because if he plays, I think the Kangaroos can really dominate the clearance and contested ball battle which in Tasmania is a big area of the game to win, even more so than normal. The Giants rank fourteenth in team-to-opponent clearance differential whilst the Kangaroos rank fifth with a +2.5 number. The Giants are still missing Josh Kelly and the Kangaroos should get the ruck dominance with Goldstein being a bigger man than Briggs. Win the clearance and contested ball and get it into Nick Larkey who is in brilliant form. He has kicked thirteen goals over the last month and Jack Buckley had five kicked against him last week against an ageing Jack Reiwoldt. Zurhaar, Stephenson, and Coleman-Jones have all been terrific over the last fortnight and they can kick a winning score if they get some easy ball inside fifty.

WHERE THE GIANTS CAN WIN:

The Giants’ forward line is still very potent and if they can halve or win the clearance battle, I think they probably win the game. Jesse Hogan is on track for a near-best career season and has kicked twenty-two goals whilst Toby Greene is arguably the best small forward in the competition and has kicked twenty-nine goals. The North Melbourne defence is undersized and the Giants will also have Aaron Cadman (195cm) and Jake Riccardi (195cm) in that forward set-up. It is hard to see the Kangaroos’ defenders being able to match it with those three big guys up forward considering aside from Ben McKay they don’t have a key defender over 194cm. I think the Greene Vs McDonald/Ziebell match-up is also a very dangerous one.

TIP: I think the Giants will win a close one. GWS by fourteen points.

CARLTON VS ESSENDON – SUNDAY 7.15PM – MCG

The first of the two blockbusters to end the round. Carlton’s season is teetering on the edge of no return and the Bombers have won three in a row and sit inside the top six. Essendon need to win to stay in the eight, and the Blues need to win to keep their season alive. Old-fashioned rivals with their season on the line – It doesn’t get any better. George Hewett will return for the Blues whilst Jack Silvagni misses and Peter Wright is expected to return for the Bombers in his first game for the season.

WHERE CARLTON CAN WIN:

Carlton has a better midfield than the Bombers and they need to get on top in this area. Patrick Cripps needs to lead the way for the Blues. His last month has been horrible by his standards and he is playing a relatively small-statured midfield who are the third-worst clearance team in the league. Cripps, Kennedy, and Hewett need to use their size and bully the Essendon midfield to get it going their way and into the hands of players like Sam Walsh, Adam Cerra, and Blake Acres so that they can use the ball well and make the right decisions going inside fifty.

If they can get on top in the midfield, Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow loom as being very dangerous. The current Coleman Medal leader in Curnow will most likely play on Jayden Laverde which shapes as a good matchup for the Blues and McKay will get Zerk-Thatcher who is giving away 9cm and 15kgs. He already struggles against the hulk key forwards and I think the McKay match-up is the one the Blues will target. Win the contest, get it in quick, and the key forwards will do the job.

WHERE ESSENDON CAN WIN:

I get the feeling that Essendon might be able to score at will in chains from their own defensive fifty. They rank second in rebound 50s per game and Carlton are horrible at applying pressure inside their own forward fifty and keeping it in there. The likes of Mason Redman, Andrew McGrath, Jordan Ridley, and Massimo D’Ambrosio should be able to beat the Blues’ small forwards when the ball hits the ground and then generate inside fifties based on that.

Once the Bombers do get it in there, they have such an even spread and they make space for each other better than most teams in the league. Jacob Weitering will likely get the job on the returning Peter Wright with Lewis Young playing on Sam Weideman. It is after those two that becomes the issue. Kyle Langford has been fantastic this season (24 goals) and likely has Mitch McGovern for an opponent who has been in horrid form, whilst Jake Stringer (17 goals), Archie Perkins (15 goals), and Jye Menzie (13 goals) should prove a handful for the likes of Kemp, Boyd, Cincotta, and Saad to handle. If the Bombers win, it will be the medium and small-sized forwards who do the damage.

TIP: I think the Bombers will win another close one. Essendon by three goals.

MELBOURNE VS COLLINGWOOD – MONDAY 3.20PM – MCG

It doesn’t get much bigger than this. A public holiday with football as the only outlet with two big Melbourne clubs going at it. Collingwood are in rare air at the moment and have lost just the one game this season whilst the Demons, although with scratchy form, find themselves inside the top four. Clayton Oliver will return for the Demons in what is a big in whilst the Pies will miss Jordan DeGoey in what is a big out. Patrick Lipinski and Daniel McStay may return for the Magpies.

WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN:

Dominate the midfield. The Demons got their clearance and contested ball game going last week against Carlton due to Christian Petracca and Jack Viney combining for fourteen clearances and twenty-eight contested possessions. Clayton Oliver comes back into the side who is arguably their best inside midfielder (averaging close to seven clearances a game) and the Pies lose their version of Oliver in Jordan DeGoey. He is averaging six clearances a game and the likes of Taylor Adams and Scott Pendlebury are going to have to really stand up in the contest in order for the Pies to contest well around the ball.

The other area the Demons can gain ascendancy is from their defence. They were good against the Blues last week when keeping them to 44 points and the Pies don’t have a star key forward. The likes of Steven May, Jake Lever, and Adam Tomlinson need to intercept the Pies attacking forays in order to both rebound offensively and contain the Pies’ pressure.

WHERE THE PIES CAN WIN:

This has a Darcy Moore masterclass written all over it. For all the tools the Demons possess, a good key forward is not one of them. Jacob Van Rooyen and Joel Smith just don’t really strike fear into anyone. The other issue with the Demons over the last few weeks is composure. The Demons have just bombed away when entering their fifty and due to this they are only averaging 78 points per game over the last month – down from the average of 108 points per game over the first month of the season. If they bomb away due to pressure or a lack of composure in this game, the likes of Darcy Moore (first in total intercepts in the competition), Nathan Murphy, Billy Frampton, and Brayden Maynard will eat their entries up for breakfast and it will then set up chains for the Pies offensively. The aim for the Pies will be to bring their customary pressure which forces rushed kicks inside fifty which will then constrict the Demons’ ability to score.

The other area the Pies can get the Demons in is with their small forwards. Outside of Trent Rivers, the Demons don’t have many small defenders who can (or want) to play a lockdown role and the Pies’ combination of small forwards and goal-kicking midfielders in Bobby Hill (16 goals), Jack Ginnivan (8 goals), and Nick Daicos (10 goals) could cause havoc in what I predict will be a low scoring game.

TIP: Hard one to call. Hard to tip against Collingwood. Magpies by eight points

The post AFL Round 13 Preview: Time For The Champions To Lift! first appeared on The Mock Sports.

MELBOURNE VS CARLTON – FRIDAY 7.50PM – MCG

The pressure on Michael Voss and his men is palpable. Carlton has lost their last four games and sits thirteenth on the ladder with no aspect of their game working well. They will be feeling the pinch with injury this week after a disastrous night at the SCG when Nic Newman, Marc Pittonet, George Hewett, and Ollie Hollands are out of the side. Paddy Dow, Lochie O’Brien, Jack Silvagni, and Zac Fisher are the expected ins. The Demons are also staring down the barrel of three straight losses after going down to Port Adelaide and Fremantle in the last fortnight and will still be without their best player in Clayton Oliver. It is a massive game for both clubs’ seasons and at this point of the season is a proper eight-point game.

WHERE MELBOURNE CAN WIN:

Melbourne, although out of form, still have the best team to opponent points per game differential and they are the fourth-best defensive team in the competition. The way Carlton has moved the ball over the last six weeks has been very poor and Melbourne loves playing against teams who just bomb it in long going forward because the likes of Jake Lever, Trent Rivers, and Steven May are very good intercept defenders. If the Demons can apply pressure throughout the middle of the ground and in their own forward fifty, I think the Blues will struggle to move the ball with any fluency which will obviously make it harder to score.

The other area that really stands out as a weakness for the Blues and a strength for the Demons is that the Blues don’t really have any pure lockdown small defenders. Kysaiah Pickett and Kade Chandler have combined for thirty-three goals in the first half of the season and without Nic Newman in the side it seems as though Alex Cincotta and Sam Docherty/Jordan Boyd will get the job on the two. Pickett broke Navy Blue hearts last year and it would not surprise if he did it again on Friday night.

WHERE CARLTON CAN WIN:

Without Clayton Oliver this Melbourne midfield is very susceptible to being beaten around the clearances and in contested ball and Carlton have got this part of their game going again over the last month. Patrick Cripps needs to lead the way for the Blues as their underfire captain. He is a clearance and contested ball beast and if he can really get a stranglehold on the game and throughout the contest it could allow Carlton to control possession and to be in more space when they do get it which should allow for better decision-making going forward. Matt Kennedy will get more midfield minutes and simply must win contested ball like he was in 2022 for the Blues to win this game. Controlling possession by winning the contested ball is the recipe for success for Carlton. Control the ball, and be brave with ball in hand and I think they can get it into the hands of McKay and Curnow enough. They just need to kick straight.

TIP: It won’t be a big margin but I think the Demons will win. Melbourne by three goals.

PORT ADELAIDE VS HAWTHORN – SATURDAY 1.45PM – ADELAIDE OVAL

Port Adelaide are arguably the in-form team of the competition as things currently stand and are on a seven-game winning streak after a few scares at the MCG last week. Todd Marshall and Charlie Dixon will both be tested through the week to see if they are available to play. Hawthorn have won their last two against West Coast and St Kilda and will be full of confidence coming into this. Captain James Sicily will miss after being given a one-match suspension and I don’t expect a like-for-like replacement.

WHERE THE POWER CAN WIN:

I think the Power have the Hawks covered essentially all over the ground. The one thing the Hawks pride themselves on is their contest and work and restricting opposition clearance numbers but Port Adelaide are also very strong in this area ranking fourth in clearances per game and fifth in team to opponent clearances per game differential. If the Power can break even in the midfield with the likes of Zak Butters, Ollie Wines, and Willem Drew, the Hawks look very susceptible in the defensive half with James Sicily missing. He was the reason they won last week (43 disposals, sixteen marks) and without him the likes of Sam Frost and James Blanck look vulnerable against Jeremy Finlayson (17 goals) and Todd Marshall (eleven goals from eight games). Break even in the midfield and I don’t think the Hawks will be able to hold together down back considering they are the fourth-worst defensive team in the league.

WHERE HAWTHORN CAN WIN:

If the Hawks can break even throughout the middle of the ground (which they have done for most of the season) they do have some weapons forward with certain players finding form and returning from injury. Mitch Lewis has the potential to be the best forward in the competition and is starting to prove that kicking thirteen goals from five games. He should only get better over the course of the season and the Port Adelaide defence is undersized and he is the type of forward that can take advantage of it. The small forwards like Luke Bruest (eighteen goals) and Tyler Brockman (nine goals) could also play a role in the game if the Hawks are to be competitive. The Power have struggled against small forwards this season and if the Hawks can get it inside fifty enough, they should be able to hot the scoreboard.

TIP: The Power should be way too good. Port Adelaide by seven or eight goals.

WEST COAST VS COLLINGWOOD – SATURDAY 4.35PM – OPTUS STADIUM

Well, aren’t these two teams at the opposite end of the spectrum. The Eagles have won one game all season while the Magpies have lost one game all season and are a game clear on top of the ladder and three games clear of fourth. Billy Frampton and Harvey Harrison come in for the Pies with Jamie Elliot and Steele Sidebottom going out, whilst Callum Jamieson comes back in for the Eagles to replace Luke Edwards.

WHERE WEST COAST CAN WIN:

We are going to be clutching at straws here. The Eagles at the conclusion of this season may be rated as one of the worst teams ever and I think that is a fair assessment. They have ageing champions in Tim Kelly, Dom Sheed, and Elliot Yeo who they need to lift massively in order for them to measure up in this game. They need to break even in the middle of the ground and then get it in quick to Oscar Allen (29 goals) and Jake Waterman (eleven goals) who have both been very good considering the Eagles rank last in the competition for inside 50s. They simply must get their hands on the footy and move it quickly if they are to have any chance, but that doesn’t look like happening considering their recent form.

WHERE COLLINGWOOD CAN WIN:

The Magpies are the best team in the competition currently and they have West Coast beaten in basically every area of the ground. They are ranked as the best defensive team in the competition and they rank second in team to opponent points per game differential. It is hard to see the Eagles being able to contain all of Brody Mihocek, Mason Cox, and Ash Johnson considering they only have one recognised key defender and the Magpie midfielders in Jordan DeGoey, Tom Mitchell, and Taylor Adams should be able to dominate on the inside which should see them get repeat inside 50s. I can’t see a weakness in the Collingwood set up currently and that’s the best thing about their system. They might not have all the big names but they have the best system since the 2017 Tigers and they are the Premiership favourites for a reason.

TIP: The Pies will be far too good. A Collingwood cakewalk by over sixty points is my tip.

WESTERN BULLDOGS VS GEELONG – SATURDAY 7.25PM – MARVEL STADIUM

Another eight-point game awaits us here on Saturday Night. The Bulldogs have won four of their last five games and now sit sixth on the ladder whilst the Cats have dropped their last three and find themselves outside of the eight in their Premiership defence. Adam Treloar is a huge in for the Dogs whilst Esava Ratugolea is a huge out for the Cats. The dogs must win to keep in touch with the top four and the Cats must win to stay in touch with the top eight.

WHERE THE BULLDOGS CAN WIN:

With the injuries the Cats have throughout their midfield (Dangerfield, Guthrie, Duncan, and Holmes all missing) the Bulldogs should be ready to dominate through the midfield in the clearance and contested ball area of the game. The Cats have been beaten convincingly in this area in the last fortnight and the Bulldogs have some of the best inside midfielders in the game, evidenced by them ranking second in clearances per game. The likes of Marcus Bontempelli (third in total clearances in the competition) and Tom Liberatore (fourth in stoppage clearances per game) should be able to dominate an inexperienced Geelong midfield and get in quick to the Dogs forward line.

The other area the Dogs may be able to target is the Cats’ undersized defence. With Esava Ratugolea missing a lot of the defensive responsibilities will lay on the shoulders of Sam De Koning. He is only one man though and the other two (assumedly) Cats key defenders in Jake Kolodjashnij (193cm and 96kgs) and Tom Stewart (190cm and 88kgs) will be giving away plenty of height and weight against the likes of Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (197cm and 92kgs) and Rory Lobb (207cm and 107kgs). If the Dogs’ midfield do get on top, I think the Cats’ defenders will struggle against the Dogs’ key forwards.

WHERE GEELONG CAN WIN:

If the Cats midfield can get enough ball inside fifty the Geelong forward line can always kick a winning score. Yes, the Dogs have been brilliant in defence this season, but they haven’t played a forward line with this capability either. The match-ups the Cats will try and isolate are Tom Hawkins and Gary Rohan on Tim O’Brien and Ryan Gardner. Hawkins has a good record against the Bulldogs and if the Cats can find him some one-on-one opportunities, he could be the match-winner. The Dogs’ key defenders won’t be able to go with him physically and they will rely on team defence in order to stop him which might be hard considering they also need to keep a superstar in Jeremy Cameron quiet along with Gary Rohan and Tyson Stengle.

TIP: I think the Dogs will be too good for the Cats. Bulldogs by twenty-eight points.

GOLD COAST VS ADELAIDE – SATURDAY 7.30PM – TIO STADIUM

The Suns have won three of their last five and did a brilliant job when beating the Bulldogs last week who are one of the in-form teams of the competition. The struggle for the Suns has been stringing together wins and if they do win this game, they will be knocking on the door of the eight. Adelaide bounced back from a disappointing loss against the Dogs a fortnight ago when beating a Premiership contender in Brisbane last week and find themselves in the eight. Another win here and they won’t be far away from the top four but more importantly will increase their buffer in the eight.

WHERE GOLD COAST CAN WIN:

The Suns base their game on winning clearance and contested ball (rank third in both areas across the competition) and that plan won’t change on Saturday Night. Matt Rowell ranks second in total clearances across the competition and Noah Anderson ranks fifth in total clearances across the league and if they can get on top like they did last weekend against a very good clearance and contested ball team in the Western Bulldogs then the Crows will find it hard to gain possession and therefore find it hard to kick a winning score against two very underrated key defenders in Charlie Ballard and Sam Collins.

The other factor that must be spoken about is Suns’ key forwards in Ben King and Jack Lukosisus. King has kicked twenty-one goals over the last six weeks and is arguably the best forward in the competition at the moment and Lukosius is coming off a five-goal haul against the Bulldogs. They are going to be hard to contain.

WHERE ADELAIDE CAN WIN:

The Crows have improved their contested ball work over the last few weeks and they must be able to at least hold their own against the midfield bulls of the Suns. If they can do this, the Adelaide forward line is the most potent in the competition. They seventh for points per game and fourteenth for inside 50s per game which goes to show that they do score when it goes in there. The Suns have struggled against small forwards this season and the Crows have some very talented small forwards in Izak Rankine, Josh Rachele, and Luke Pedlar. If the Suns don’t win the contested ball and control possession, I think they will struggle to contain the Adelaide forward line. The game rests on the back of Jordan Dawson and Rory Laird for the Crows.

TIP: I think this will be a high-scoring, back-and-forth game. Suns by ten points.

GWS GIANTS VS RICHMOND – SUNDAY 1.10PM – GIANTS STADIUM

The Giants have lost three of their last four and sit in fourteenth place whilst the Tigers have won just the three games this season and sit in fifteenth place. Noah Cumberland is an expected in for the Tigers and Harry Himmelberg is an expected in for the Giants. The side note to the game is that this will be the first time Tim Taranto plays his old team in Yellow and Black colours.

WHERE THE GAME WILL BE WON:

The Giants’ game plan may match up well against the Tigers considering they love to control possession which takes away the Tigers’ love of it being a free-flowing game and a more chaotic style of football. The big area of the game which will decide the outcome will be the clearance and contested ball numbers. The Giants have won this area over the last three weeks against teams like Collingwood and St Kilda and it is an area where the Tigers are the worst in the competition at. Tom Green and Tim Taranto are both brilliant inside midfielders but the issue for the Tigers is that Green has more help than Taranto does. Coniglio is still averaging close to six clearances a game this season whilst Josh Kelly is averaging closer to five. On the flip side for the Tigers, the next best clearance midfielder is actually their ruck man in Toby Nankervis who is averaging four clearances a game. The likes of Shai Bolton and Dion Prestia must lift in order for the Tigers to get their season back on track. If they don’t, the forwards won’t be given a chance for any quality inside fifty entries and therefore they won’t be able to kick a winning score again. Whoever wins the midfield wins the game here.

TIP: I think this will be very close as they are two even teams. Giants by eight points.

ESSENDON VS NORTH MELBOURNE – SUNDAY 4.40PM – MARVEL STADIUM

The Bombers are shooting for three wins in a row after taking care of Richmond and West Coast over the last fortnight and now find themselves in the eight. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will miss for the Bombers with Dylan Shiel expected to replace him. The Kangaroos have been more competitive in the last couple of weeks and would be happy with the level of effort displayed against the Pies. Aidan Corr and Liam Shiels will come in to replace Charlie Lazzaro and Paul Curtis.

WHERE THE BOMBERS CAN WIN:

Essendon’s forward set up is working brilliantly considering they don’t have their best key forward in Peter Wright playing and I think this is where they can get the Kangaroos. There has been a really good spread of goalkickers for the Bombers this season (Langford 20, Stringer 16, Weideman 13, Perkins 13, and Menzie 12) and it is hard to see them containing all those players considering they are the second-worst defensive team in the league. The likes of Griffin Logue and Aidan Corr can be liabilities at times. They don’t defend overly well one-on-one and they provide no offensive run. If the Bombers can win their share of footy around the ground the likes of Stringer and Langford should get very favourable matchups and they should be able to kick a big enough score to win.

WHERE THE KANGAROOS CAN WIN:

The Kangaroos need to dominate the clearance and contested ball battle in order to win this game. The one weakness the Bombers have (especially with Darcy Parish out) is that they rank seventeenth in clearances and sixteenth in contested possession which should allow the likes of Simpkin, Sheezel, and Greenwood to be able to get some control on the ball and therefore get enough inside fifties which will give the North Melbourne forwards enough chances to score. Nick Larkey has kicked thirty goals and is sixth in the Coleman medal race and must be a concern for Essendon considering the likes of Zerk-Thatcher and Laverde aren’t completely proven as to be high-quality defenders as of yet. Jaidyn Stephenson and Cameron Zurhaar have also been good this season (seventeen and thirteen goals respectively) and if North Melbourne can get some repeat inside fifties, they can kick a winning score.

TIP: This will be closer than the odds indicate. In saying that, Essendon by fifteen points in a low-scoring game.

The post AFL Round 12 Preview: The Round Of The Eight Point Game! first appeared on The Mock Sports.

The Demons have now lost two games in a row against Port Adelaide and Fremantle and I personally think they were lucky to get over both Gold Coast and Richmond. In their seven wins this season they have only beaten one top-eight team in the Western Bulldogs and that was when they were shocking at the beginning of the season. More worryingly for the Demons, the same issues keep arising and every other club now knows the exact way of beating them.

For all of the big names they have running throughout the middle of the ground, they don’t win clearances. They rank thirteenth in the competition for clearances per game and when Clayton Oliver isn’t in that midfield the likes of Christian Petracca and Jack Viney just aren’t getting it done. The lack of depth throughout the midfield is also a glaring issue for the Demons. After naming Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, and Jack Viney it drops away quickly with the likes of Brayshaw, Harmes, Sparrow, and Pickett having to play around the stoppages. In three out of their four losses this season they have been smacked around the clearances and contested ball and if that doesn’t change quickly, The demons top four hopes could be a distant memory.

Their defence is another issue. If you can occupy Jake Lever and take away his aerial threat it opens up goal-scoring opportunities for the opposition considering Steven May is in horrible form. In three of Melbourne’s losses (he didn’t play in the other defeat) the opposition have kept Lever’s marking numbers to 3, 2, and 8 (the outlier). If a team can take away his presence in the air and make him defend 1v1 (just like Fremantle did last week) he becomes a defensive liability and it takes away their counterattacking options. The blame should also go to Steven May. He has conceded multiple hauls of four goals against him this season and has only kept his direct opponent to under two goals once this season and that was in round one when the Demons won by ten goals.

The forward line is a separate issue entirely and I think stats can be misleading at times. The Demons rank first in points per game but I don’t think their forward six scares anyone. Their lack of a key forward has been an issue for some time now. Jacob Van Rooyen has kicked fourteen goals from nine games and will eventually be that man, but I wouldn’t be putting my trust in a nineteen-year-old key forward in September. Bayley Fritsch has been the Demons’ best forward for the best part of five seasons and if you can minimise his influence (like Port Adelaide, Fremantle, and Gold Coast have been able to do lately) the scoring really dries up for the Demons, especially if the likes of Pickett and Chandler are expected to push up the ground.

For a team that sits third in betting for the Premiership, there are problems that need to be addressed and quickly. Three blockbuster games await the Demons. The struggling Blues on Friday Night into the reigning Premier Geelong and current Premiership favourites Collingwood on Queens Birthday. With a record of 7-4 they sit only a game clear of ninth and equal on points with both fifth and sixth. Win those three and they will be rightly considered as Premiership contenders – Lose, and I think their hold on the top four will slip and I highly doubt whether they will be able to get back in there.

I am starting to believe that the Demons have plenty of downhill skiers in their 22 (including some of their better players). They are only a watch at this stage, but we could sit here in four weeks’ time and be asking ourselves where the Demons went wrong in the quest for a dynasty. The core group is at the perfect age to be contending but as we have seen with other teams in the past (2017 Adelaide, 2014 Fremantle, 2009 St Kilda) it can slip right on by you if you don’t strike while the kettle is hot. The likes of Christian Petracca, Lachie Hunter, Angus Brayshaw, Christian Salem, Ed Langdon, and Jake Lever will be thirty before you know it and by that stage, the likes of Max Gawn, Steven May, Tom McDonald, and Jack Viney will be retired. The time is now for the Demons, and they would want to improve a lot to be contending for a Premiership in September.

The post The Melbourne Demons Are Starting To Smell Like The Gates of Hell! first appeared on The Mock Sports.